For Amazon "Is It Different This Time?"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Michael Green's IceFarm Capital may no longer be around, but one chart form his final slidedeck is especially relevant for bullish fans of Amazon which today getting tumbling after what appears to have been a relentless climb over the past few years.

Below we show the sources of return for AMZN stock, split between sales growth and multiple expansion. As the chart asks (and answers) the question longs should be asking themselves is whether it is "different this time?"

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Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:42 | 7041594 nuubee
nuubee's picture

It's not mania, the Top Gear crew is coming to Prime!

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:45 | 7041628 ThanksChump
ThanksChump's picture

Is Amazon Prime actually Optimus' butch sister? I could post an image of what that might look like, except I can't.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:54 | 7041670 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Most of Amazon's recent operating net  income is from its cloud services, and not the retail unit. i.e. the 100+ unicorns in Silicon Valley using EC2 and cloud storage.  Once the tech bubble pops, amazon's cloud services will suffer a huge retreat, and likely go back to generating negative earnings, because of the excess cloud capacity.

 

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:18 | 7041888 ThanksChump
ThanksChump's picture

You're right to think so, but probably wrong.

Most of the EC2/AWS services are already paid through 2016. You get a huge discount and other incentives doing that. 2017 forecasts are where Amazon will feel the Fed's cock punches.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:19 | 7041894 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

One of my 2016 resolutions is to make sure that Amazon gets as little of my money as possible.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:42 | 7041598 ThanksChump
ThanksChump's picture

I'm long physical Amazons.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:45 | 7041625 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Bezos can choke on a bag full of dicks.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:50 | 7041661 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

I'm sure he already has, and enjoyed it

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:47 | 7041642 robnume
robnume's picture

Gee, it'd be a real shame if Bozos when down. Heh, heh. I'll have a little dab of that schadenfreude!

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:33 | 7042006 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Hey, he's always got the BezosPost to fall back on.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:48 | 7041647 reload
reload's picture

Ha Ha - my EX financial advisor was proudly telling me only 10 days ago how he was putting dollops of first time buyer client money into AMZN.

On his track record that probably makes it the short of the century.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:55 | 7041732 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Can you "gift" him a membership to Amazon Prime ?

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 14:59 | 7041758 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Great story. lmao. BTFATH is "alive and well" in Idiotland.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:18 | 7041890 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

but, but, but... their Web services business is almost profitable!!!

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:37 | 7042031 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

"Free Shipping" (obviously no such thing) is likely getting more expensive for Amazon too, as of January 17th the US Postal Service is increasing the rates to send packages very substantially. 

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 15:40 | 7042052 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

prediction: amazon will buy USPS, and continue to ship everything at slightly less of a loss.

Wed, 01/13/2016 - 16:08 | 7042231 scatha
scatha's picture

I am sick and tired of Bezos and all those mental dwarfs having free ride by world elites while slaving people to death for nothing by Chinese trinkets, and brag about it as disruptive innovation.

After government subsidized cloud BS reprehensible rentier outfit, electric car fiasco, useless and ridiculously expensive battery con, another disaster rocket toy play from another apartheid boy but this time entirely for taxpayer money. Boy, they all earned every badge of SV technology psychedelic gurus.

Those psychotic, cash bloated, inbred retards and Wall Street perverts, in their wet Ponzi dream are fornicating with those mentally challenged Silicon Valley megalomaniacs, squirting “green” feces off their rotten minds onto faces of hard working US taxpayers, during their cerebral herpes induced seizures of sick imagination, calling it creative disruption. And loving it.

I guess, unable to get hard on with sex, booze and drugs they get high of orgasmic chaos, blow up toys and inhumane exploitation of their cheerleading, gadget addicted serfs.

Interesting take on those parasites of reasonable mind I found at:

https://sostratusworks.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/smell-of-silicon-madness/

 

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