Gartman Now Says Crude Has Bottomed Hours After Warning Of "Egregiously Lower" Prices And "Panic Selling" To $15
It was less than a day ago when Gartman, in his latest appearance on the nepotism-challenged CNBC, said that not only is the bottom for oil not in yet, but that a selling "panic" could push it down as low as $15: after all with Standard Chartered coming out with a $10 forecast, it was suddenly cool to have dire predictions about the black gold's downside risk.
This is what he said:
"The dollar is the predominant deciding factor at this point, and as long as the dollar continues to go higher, and it does, the pressure will remain on the crude oil market. I really thought that $32 might hold. I actually thought that would be the furthest that we could extend it down to, but we're getting a panic situation. And in panic you can get an egregiously lower price," he said.
According to Gartman, the bottom is not in for oil: It could fall much further. "Egregiously lower — $15, $16, $17, $18 per barrel on the front month for a day or two but it won't last long down there," he said.
Perhaps because the video was record around lunch time, before oil dipped below $30 and then rebounded, and perhaps because just a few hours later Jeff Gundlach said oil has bottomed, the halflife on this particular Gartman call was record short.
This is what he said in his latest overnight letter:
CRUDE OIL PRICES, FINALLY, HAVE STABILISED and we shall go our far upon a limb here this morning suggesting very strongly that when nearby February WTI traded to $29.93 at its low yesterday amidst a great deal of very vocal consternation on the national business television channels that crude had “TRADED BELOW $30 PER BARRELL” that that was what we in the past had referred to as the “obscene number” and may well have been the low.
This, of course, comes from the world-renowned commodities expert who trades oil as follows:
So while oil may have much more downside once again, the other question is what happens to stocks? After all in yesterday's comment in which Gartman said he was preparing to "short this bear market" more, we warned "shorters may want to take today off" ahead of the late day spike. What does Gartman think now?
Our International Index has risen 89 “points” in the past twenty four hours, taking it 1% higher in the process and reviving hopes on the part of the equity market bulls that the weakness has run its course. It has not and we wish to be quite clear about that. For the year-to-date, our International Index is down nearly 750 “points and from its high last May it is down nearly 2350 “points” or 7.8% and 21.0% respectively. These are not insignificant numbers. Indeed they are manifestly bearish numbers and we must needs trade bearishly as a result, and for now we await the rise toward 1985 for the S&P as noted just above into which we have every intention of becoming rather aggressively net short of the market. We have the ability… and the opportunity… at this point to be patient, awaiting our target and waiting for the proper time.
His conclusion:
Victory usually goes to the patient.
By patient we suppose he means to those who now flipflop twice in less than 24 hours?
(3 votes)
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Gartman's Crystal Ball methodology:
She loves me, she loves me not.
Or
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe
After this interview,Fartman f*cked the Chinese TV Anchor and paid in Yuan :P
He only pays in Yen terms,like he buys his mythical gold...
Nooooooooo...I just went long oil and ,VLO
Is that his daughter?
If you predict everything possible you will be spot on some of the time, a bit like a broken clock being extremely accurate twice a day.
This clown seems to determine the longer term trend via what the market does that day.
So if we get a positive close on crude today the long term trend will be up. If negative the long term trend down.
I used to be indecisive....now I'm not so sure.
http://olduvai.ca
Fartman hasn't fucked anything - except his subscribers - for years.
Here, he ends his (or should I say "our"?) daily spew of market vomit with the genius comment of the century (remember, he's on a show called "Fast Money"):
Victory usually goes to the patient.
Problem with this kind of analysis is that THE PATIENT HAS DIED.
Gartman, like an old horse with sore knees, needs to be put out of his misery. He looks like shit. Take him out in the CNBC parking lot and shoot him. He is completely useless at this point, so pathetic, he's no longer funny.
Seriously, I can't take it any more.
Damn!
This bloviating ass-clown's not fooling anyone (At least on ZH)..more misdirection.
Gartman has incomplete information. When you listen to his reasoning, he's reacting to the way he thinks "the market" sees the price. "The market" not being the real mechanisms of price, but how investors perceive the market. He does not have his finger on the pulse. He reacts when the nurse runs screaming out of the room.
This is what we in the business call "Tradeable Analytics"....S&P will end at 1750 this year...if we are lucky...
Remember that Gartman is looking out for - Gartman. Like most talking heads, you get a 'doom' statement just as they go to cover their shorts - and vice versa. Of course, Gartman gets it wrong once(?) in a while.
Long dwti
Gartman can’t possibly be trading on his own advice. He changes his mind so frequently he doesn’t have time to execute the trades, even if he uses HFT.
Unless you can't help getting your jollies from talking about what a fool he is (makes you feel smart?) shouldn't we all just agree that Gartman is a total waste of time and stop falling for the click bait? This will be the last article I click on with "Gartman" in the title. There, another 2 minutes I could have spent more wisely
A waste of time? More like a wasted sperm.
I guess I am going to be waiting for the buying opp on USO and other plays in the oil patch.
Morning CD: Hope you and the family are well. Has anyone ever consider that GARTMAN may literally BI-Polar? He "flip-flops" every 4 to 36 hours seemingly with no accountability or rationality. He just spews bullshit watching "tick-by-tick" in the market then, comes out and writes about it. We have never seen this mouthpiece has ever been "ahead" of the market.
He needs to be put out to pasture, license taken away, or locked up in a straight jacket. The guy is a market following fool.
Gartman is almost as big of a contrarian indicator as ZeroHedge is....almost.
He's like Cramer and all the rest, within a short period of time or even in the same damn breathe he will say something will go up or down.
Then time passes and he says "see, I was right, it did go down (or up)".