Markets In Freefall: Stocks Extend Worst Ever Start To Year
Today's business media summarized...
Today's actual market summarized...
Let's start with this - The market has now reduced March rate-hike odds back to pre-December rate-hike levels (at just 35%)...
Two words - Policy... Error...
This remains the worst start to a year... ever...
Across the major US equity markets, it's a bloodbath...
*RUSSELL 2000 CAPS 22% DROP FROM JUNE RECORD, ENTERS BEAR MARKET
With the Nasdaq about to be the lasty major index to give up its post-QE3 gains...
Year to Date - it's just as ugly...
And since The Fed hiked rates...
VIX term structure inverted but we are a long way from an August-like panic-bottom...
There is at least some rationality resumiong as weak balance sheet stocks underperform strong balance sheet firms...
With selling out of the gate and only a small bounce in the last hour, equity markets carnaged...
FANGs entered a correction...
And FANTAsy stocks were smashed today...
Lots of head-scratching at how this is possible... except for anyone who pays attention to credit markets...
As HYG plunges to its lowest close since July 2009... Today was worst day in 4 weeks
US Energy credit risk is soaring back to near 2008 crisis highs...
h/t @JavierBlas2
While High yield bonds were crashing, Treasuries were aggressively bid (despite the Inbev issuance), on the verge of flash-crashing a few times after a stronmg 10Y auction...
The USDollar Index ended the day unchanged as early strength was sold - but it remains up on the week... CAD was smashed to new 12 yeasr lows
Gold ansd Silver rallied as Crude and Copper crumbled...
As stocks plunged at the US open so PMs ripped...
As if by magic, WTI's NYMEX close was adjusted very slightly higher to enable a tiny green print... but the trend was clear...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Some food for thought...
(24 votes)
»
- Login or register to post comments
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
They're probably gonna get a better risk-adjusted return that way.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Everyone agreed the market was overpriced at 12,000
What we see is usual bear market action. The primary bear market was signaled more than a month ago by the Dow Theory as explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.htmlThe average decline following primary bear market signals amounts to an additional ca. -13% (after the signal). So, the odds favor further declines:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
The surest sign is the disappearance of the head Yenta Janet Felon and Stanley Fischer. Haven't seen her face this year. I have seen brand new Federal Reserve spokes people, first ever, interviews on Bloomberg. That is in itself very unsettling.
They have left the building w/ all the loot and rehung the doors to open inward.
You know its got to be REALLY bad if the Fed and its proxies can't reverse the sell algorithms.
Actually its amazing that Uncle Fraud could keep it together this long.
Its almost time to print up and give everybody a million dollars to spend which of course would mostly end up in China's pocket. Another brilliant, kick the can, strategy by Uncle Fraud.
Thank You, Oh Higher Power, for getting me out of Stawks, except for my miners....now, if I could ask just a little, small, favor........
Wake me up when reality starts matter again. I am already hearing FED printing presses humm. They will buy everything including kitchen sink as well as oligarchs' used toilet paper for protein content.
It's a mad house.
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/economy-update/
Two words - Policy... Error...
No, that was the sign to short this sucker. S&P 2050 was my short entry point, tempted to close. We will see?
Haven't seen Janet Felon this year?
Where the hell did she and Stanley Fischer disappear too?
I saw he did a speech but seeing that gold is on the move all the TBTF have cashed out and are buying physical.
When bond yields start going up in tandem with gold you know the end is near.
The Chinese have to be considering their position of....what is it now?........$3.5 trillion in T-debt!
If they start selling short the money will reverse direction and spin on a dime back into Chinese paper.
Should be entertaining.
All hail the new reserve currency. Those not familiar w/ the terms RMB and Yuan soon will be!
QE time
i wonder how much more of obama's great economy i can afford........
How much do you still have?
The latest address to the nation: NYSE consumers shares hardest hit.
Oy vey, the elder rabbis are gonna feel this one.
Kevin Henry has left for Monaco!
We finally have price discovery!
I cashed out my 401k on 12.30.2015.....glad I did.
I get cash out of the atm and get cash out when I get groceries. I will be getting additional beans, rice and canned chicken at the market. I think EBT cards are going down and it will be mayhem soon. The familiar faces of the MSM are nowhere to be found. I have already seen some first time Federal Reserve spokesman on CNBC and Bloomberg, which tells me the cabal is already gone. When they announce that this is a Federal Reserve official's first interview, ever, I get nervous! I have to ask "where is the head Yenta?" Haven't seen her face this year. The dark sith lords have retreated into oblivion with all of the gold nuggets! Back to the home planet?
They were the first to exit last year and they have re-hinged the doors to open inward.
We will probably, finally, get a decent guy for President but, there will be nothing left to save.
It is going to be a long 12 months until the Bag Holder in Chief moves into the WH.
They will never be able to remove the stank of the wookie from the Oval Office.
Ma and PA, If your still in stawkes then you've stuck your hand in a garbage disposal and they have flipped the swich ON. ouch!
And when it all collapses we will be treated to the consequences of this......
http://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2016/01/the-lion-is-it-time-to-fi...
yeah, they invaded after we bombed the shit out of their countries with CIA overthrowing all their democratically elected leaders. Get a F'kin clue.
Buy the dip! Make money? Are you making money?
NO! Your making numbers on a computer screen. There is no wealth there.
And quit with F word already. It's a worn out adjective for F'n morons that can't speak English.
You ain't seen nothin' yet. Tomorrow, a complete and total Barf-o-Rama
Quit "peddling fiction". All of You!!
Wall St wants MORE tax money to prop them up. They need a commercial, with Sally Struthers, weeping about the plight of the po' trader. "Won't YOU help?"
Obama talks, the world responds appropriately.
Just wait until the walking colostomy bag Hillary gets indicted...
LOOK OUT BELOW, BITCHEZ!!!
Or Oblabla faces impeachment.
The Fed decided that they wanted to cause a DEPRESSION when they put the rates up when averyone knows we are already in a RECESSION.
There must be a reason for this, but I surely cannot believe that sane people would wilfully do this to their own businesses and workers.
In conditions like this I hope you all have converted your "PET PAPER" & "PET DIGITS" into "PET ROCKS" which will hold it's value during this coming FED CREATED DEPRESSION. _JOHNLGALT
Pinky and the Brain, episode #22.
The Brain wants to execute a similar plan.
but Obama just said the economy is the strongest.
There will be NO winner of Powerball - why would they want to stop this economy inducing Juggernaut ?? Enjoy the ride ! It may be the final one !
GTCs in for AAPL 50 and AMZN 300.
As long as there are breathing and living taxpayers, the markets will be just fine. Like every other financial collapse, taxpayers to the rescue.
Danm it...I bought on the dip and now I am in deep dipshit...
Guess I'll just enjoy the 'shooden-froody' as we enter Global Financial Crisis 2.0, and it takes out a large swath of the chattering classes who have anything left and thought it was because they were so smart.
'Geoffrey the Bearded' - 'Eric the Red' - 'Vlad the Impaler' and now 'Barry the Bozo' - Barry is definitely looking at going down in history as the 21st centuries biggest ever FUCKTARD ! It's a lay down Misere !!
What will become of the once great US once Powerball has been WON ....... HUH ??
Is this going to help gold any?
Real time capital consumption. Fireworks still lack colors. Pour on with more interventions.
.
First there was Cow Chipotle. Now there's Go Po.
This is the market playing chicken with the Fed to get moar QE. It'll get it, but it may have to drop another 20%+ first.
Precisely.
-----
The federal reserve wanted an excuse last winter to begin QE4ever to manipulate the markets higher before the next elections. But they had been saying "the economy is freaking awesome" and they had massively manipulated the totally fake unemployment rate down to 5% to back that up.
So according to their own story aka LIES, they had no justification whatsoever to begin QE4ever in time for the election. Woops!
They needed a way out. What way did they choose?
#1: raise rates on December 16 to 0.25%.
#2: promise more rate raises this year.
#3: admit their market manipulations.
The last item they had Fisher do a few days ago, when he claimed the federal reserve purposely "front loaded" the manipulation of the stock market higher.
They figured this should be enough to:
#1: start the market crash.
#2: signal they'd do QE4ever to save markets.
-----
Seriously, the above is just history. No speculation required.
And yes, they need more damage (~20%) before they can justify QE4ever. If that doesn't happen organically at this point, they'll dump more fuel on the fire.
Oh, I should add another item to my first list:
#4: have lots of huge banks and financial corporations tell clients "the markets will crash and burn in 2016, so sell everything".
Some said just this in the past week, and others said something close to this.
Look out below... for a while.
Then look out above... after a monster QE4ever is announced.
But do note. QE4ever will probably "save" the fake markets, but the world economy will crash and burn, and nothing the predators-that-be can stop that now. Plus, they want that.
Lot of fear out there. I'll start getting bearish only when SPX closes below the neckline of the huge H&S Pattern at 1880ish.
http://pebblewriter.com/are-you-happy/