Financial Collapse Leads To War
Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,
[With the new year, a sea change seems to have occurred in the financial markets: instead of “melting up,” the way they used to, they have started “melting down.” My original prediction is that this will lead to more armed conflict. Let's see if I was right.]
Scanning the headlines in the western mainstream press, and then peering behind the one-way mirror to compare that to the actual goings-on, one can't but get the impression that America's propagandists, and all those who follow in their wake, are struggling with all their might to concoct rationales for military action of one sort or another, be it supplying weapons to the largely defunct Ukrainian military, or staging parades of US military hardware and troops in the almost completely Russian town of Narva, in Estonia, a few hundred meters away from the Russian border, or putting US “advisers” in harm's way in parts of Iraq mostly controlled by Islamic militants.
The strenuous efforts to whip up Cold War-like hysteria in the face of an otherwise preoccupied and essentially passive Russia seems out of all proportion to the actual military threat Russia poses. (Yes, volunteers and ammo do filter into Ukraine across the Russian border, but that's about it.) Further south, the efforts to topple the government of Syria by aiding and arming Islamist radicals seem to be backfiring nicely. But that's the pattern, isn't it? What US military involvement in recent memory hasn't resulted in a fiasco? Maybe failure is not just an option, but more of a requirement?
Let's review. Afghanistan, after the longest military campaign in US history, is being handed back to the Taliban. Iraq no longer exists as a sovereign nation, but has fractured into three pieces, one of them controlled by radical Islamists. Egypt has been democratically reformed into a military dictatorship. Libya is a defunct state in the middle of a civil war. The Ukraine will soon be in a similar state; it has been reduced to pauper status in record time—less than a year. A recent government overthrow has caused Yemen to stop being US-friendly. Closer to home, things are going so well in the US-dominated Central American countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador that they have produced a flood of refugees, all trying to get into the US in the hopes of finding any sort of sanctuary.
Looking at this broad landscape of failure, there are two ways to interpret it. One is that the US officialdom is the most incompetent one imaginable, and can't ever get anything right. But another is that they do not succeed for a distinctly different reason: they don't succeed because results don't matter. You see, if failure were a problem, then there would be some sort of pressure coming from somewhere or other within the establishment, and that pressure to succeed might sporadically give rise to improved performance, leading to at least a few instances of success. But if in fact failure is no problem at all, and if instead there was some sort of pressure to fail, then we would see exactly what we do see.
In fact, a point can be made that it is the limited scope of failure that is the problem. This would explain the recent saber-rattling in the direction of Russia, accusing it of imperial ambitions (Russia is not interested in territorial gains), demonizing Vladimir Putin (who is effective and popular) and behaving provocatively along Russia's various borders (leaving Russia vaguely insulted but generally unconcerned). It can be argued that all the previous victims of US foreign policy—Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, even the Ukraine—are too small to produce failure writ large enough to satisfy America's appetite for failure. Russia, on the other hand, especially when incentivized by thinking that it is standing up to some sort of new, American-style fascism, has the ability to deliver to the US a foreign policy failure that will dwarf all the previous ones.
Analysts have proposed a variety of explanations for America's hyperactive, oversized militarism. Here are the top three:
1. The US government has been captured by the military-industrial complex, which demands to be financed lavishly. Rationales are created artificially to achieve that result. But there does seem to be some sort of pressure to actually make weapons and field armies, because wouldn't it be far more cost-effective to achieve full-spectrum failure simply by stealing all the money and skip building the weapons systems altogether? So something else must be going on.
2. The US military posture is designed to assure Americans of their imagined “full-spectrum dominance” over the entire planet. But “full-spectrum dominance” sounds a little bit like “success,” whereas what we see is full-spectrum failure. Again, this story doesn't fit the facts.
3. The US acts militarily to defend the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. But the US dollar is slowly but surely losing its attractiveness as a reserve currency, as witnessed by China and Russia acting as swiftly as they can to unload their US dollar reserves, and to stockpile gold instead. Numerous other nations have entered into arrangements with each other to stop using the US dollar in international trade. The fact of the matter is, it doesn't take a huge military to flush one's national currency down the toilet, so, once again, something else must be going on.
There are many other explanations on offer as well, but none of them explain the fact that the goal of all this militarism seems to be to achieve failure.
Perhaps a simpler explanation would suffice? How about this one:
The US has surrendered its sovereignty to a clique of financial oligarchs. Having nobody at all to answer to, this American (and to some extent international) oligarchy has been ruining the financial condition of the country, running up staggering levels of debt, destroying savings and retirements, debasing the currency and so on. The inevitable end-game is that the Federal Reserve (along with the central banks of other “developed economies”) will end up buying up all the sovereign debt issuance with money they print for that purpose, and in the end this inevitably leads to hyperinflation and national bankruptcy. A very special set of conditions has prevented these two events from taking place thus far, but that doesn't mean that they won't, because that's what always happens, sooner or later.
Now, let's suppose a financial oligarchy has seized control of the country, and, since it can't control its own appetites, is running it into the ground. Then it would make sense for it to have some sort of back-up plan for when the whole financial house of cards falls apart. Ideally, this plan would effectively put down any chance of revolt of the downtrodden masses, and allow the oligarchy to maintain security and hold onto its wealth. Peacetime is fine for as long as it can placate the populace with bread and circuses, but when a financial calamity causes the economy to crater and bread and circuses turn scarce, a handy fallback is war.
Any rationale for war will do, be it terrorists foreign and domestic, Big Bad Russia, or hallucinated space aliens. Military success is unimportant, because failure is even better than success for maintaining order because it makes it possible to force through various emergency security measures. Various training runs, such as the military occupation of Boston following the staged bombings at the Boston Marathon, have already taken place. The surveillance infrastructure and the partially privatized prison-industrial complex are already in place for locking up the undesirables. A really huge failure would provide the best rationale for putting the economy on a war footing, imposing martial law, suppressing dissent, outlawing “extremist” political activity and so on.
And so perhaps that is what we should expect. Financial collapse is already baked in, and it's only a matter of time before it happens, and precipitates commercial collapse when global supply chains stop functioning. Political collapse will be resisted, and the way it will be resisted is by starting as many wars as possible, to produce a vast backdrop of failure to serve as a rationale for all sorts of “emergency measures,” all of which will have just one aim: to suppress rebellion and to keep the oligarchy in power. Outside the US, it will look like Americans blowing things up: countries, things, innocent bystanders, even themselves (because, you know, apparently that works too). From the outside looking into America's hall of one-way mirrors, it will look like a country gone mad; but then it already looks that way. And inside the hall of one-way mirrors it will look like valiant defenders of liberty battling implacable foes around the world. Most people will remain docile and just wave their little flags.
But I would venture to guess that at some point failure will translate into meta-failure: America will fail even at failing. I hope that there is something we can do to help this meta-failure of failure happen sooner rather than later.
(28 votes)
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We have a democracy already, that's the problem. You people can perpetuate this failed, cancer ridden system by voting, I've dropped out.
Banksters love spreading democracy because it is easy for the banksters to bribe the mob with their own money. An example of the virtues of the republic defiined in the Constitution. The FFs knew what they were doing. They required Senators be appointed by each respective state house. The banksters would have to buy off every state house to own the Senate like they do today. The state house is also local, closer to the people. The bankster solution? Change the Constitution so that the banksters play thing, the mob, picks the Senate.
three roads to tyranny --Statism( communist, facist state worship), Theocracy, and the most dangerous--democracy (the majority believes the lie of the free lunch and gives unlimited power to those who promise to deliver) --just guessing ----
we are at war now. not just the hot war in the mid east and ukraine but in the media, in business, in the securities and currency market.
huge false flag coming. the crescendo is near judging from the number of muslims are evil trolls on zh. they tried with 9 guys and a girl(gotta have a girl) who likely volunteered for a possible bait mission in the gulf of hormuz(lloyd's cancelled insurance for anyone in the gulf prior to the event). they are itching for blow this up in full kinetic action.
the zionazi usa knows now is the better than tommorrow so today it will be.
let's think like them. 15 million jews and their coharts in zionazism is a much easier target than 1.5 billion muslims. it only makes sense to nuke israel and dc for the best results in obtaining peace.
Yes, we can learn from them.
Israel has control over her borders, reality-based homeland security, and a state-of-the-art nuclear weapons program to force enemies of the nation to think twice before trying to invade her territory or allowing their clients to do so.
She also has the will and ability to teach unruly strangers in her midst how to behave, to expel them if they refuse, and to encourage her own children to be fruitful and multiply.
Israel, no thanks to the banksters, has all these things, which is why she'll be fine, come what may.
The lesson for the rest of the civilized world is to go and do likewise. Israel, who has nothing to gain from the fall of Christendom and much to lose, will be as grateful as anyone that the nations came to their senses.
Niall....nice try.
WITHOUT THE U.S......Israel hasn't ghosts chance in hell of holding onto their spit of land.
"Israel has control over her borders <NOT WITHOUT U.S. MILITARY BACKING AND SPENDING>, reality-based homeland security <KINDA>, and a state-of-the-art nuclear weapons program <GIVEN TO THEM> to force enemies of the nation to think twice before trying to invade her territory or allowing their clients to do so.
She also has the will and ability to teach unruly strangers in her midst how to behave, to expel them if they refuse, and to encourage her own children to be fruitful and multiply. AGAIN....WITHOUT THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FROM THE U.S. - DOUBTFUL THAT WOULD EVER WORK.
Israel, no thanks to the banksters, <WTF???> has all these things, which is why she'll be fine, come what may.
Not to sound like a broken record.....Uncle Sambo.....controlled by ...whom again????
And your settlers are showing the Palistinians how to live on their land.
Nial's just a fraud. He can't possibly be in Ireland, as everyone knows. Saint Patrick drove the snakes out a long long time ago. Affinity fraud for John Kerry Kohn Horseface was not enough for you?
he's probably a squatter colonialist in the 6 counties who, in his very un-christian version of North of Ireland Protestantism, identifies, like Cromwell, with the Pharisees, which explains his genocidal hatred of Arabs... and perhaps "natives" resisting colonialist settler violence and barbarity, generally.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/may/19/northernireland
I'd not take him seriously at all, excepting as a case study in wish-thinking and narcissistic psychopathy.
The Grauniad never had any use for loyal Britons, in Rhodesia or Ulster, or for Israel. I don't expect them to take loyal Ulster's sympathy for Israel's cause seriously.
But yes, I am loyal and proud.
Ulster remains the most Christian corner of western Europe, and has resisted Islam to a degree otherwise unknown west of the Elbe. The Teigs are abandoning even the pretense of Christianity, and the Free State is being Islamified at breakneck speed.
Let the Teigs fall with Amalek. Ulster will stand with Israel and fight beside her, traitors from the Falls Road to Westminster be damned.
God save the Queen, God save Ulster, and God save Israel.
First Book of Samuel 28:1
Millennia later, it's the Israelites in their armed camps fighting against the modern day Philistines.
Israel when you want to live in an armed camp
except the israelites were scattered to the winds millenia ago by the Assyrians. There are no more 'Israelites.'
What we have is a series of perpetually reinvented myths, treated as apodictic Truth, and adhered to with murderous violence by people who worship a tribal war god.
Lord Byron in the pay of the joos
Twas the joos what done in Sennacherib"Israel, no thanks to the banksters, has all these things,"
This is a stunning display of ignorance.
Israel is a state founded on racism, ethnic cleansing, and terrorism, and it continues to be so. And it could not have done it without significant assistance from "the banksters" - a great many of whom were and are, it may surprise you, Jews.
And what's more it is misnamed. 'Judea,' while a stretch, would have been far more accurate than "Israel" whose semi-historical tribes were dispersed and lost long, long ago. But I guess 'Israel' had a better ring to it.
I believe Israel teaches its lessons mostly to children armed with stones, often planting knives on them after murdering them in cold blood.
Strangely, that did not prove to be proper training in 2006 when Israel again attacked Lebanon.
Which is why, I suppose they don't dare attack Iran themselves. They prefer to show their prowess against enemies that can not fight back.
I liked what you were writing until the nuke'm part. My preference is that nobody nukes anybody.
they are not shy about wanting to kill muslims. why should we be shy about killing them? i don't want violence either but if they leave no choice but to defend ourselves from them violence must be met with violence.
WW III has been going on for a little while, its just that most of us are insulated from it.
You'll notice it when that golf course you built that house on becomes filled with refugee tents like they are in Europe.
You'll notice it when your daughters get raped on the way home from school by refugees and your government shames you for being angry.
You'll notice it when your bank account is drained to pay for more war against people you never met and had no issue with you before your government killed their entire family.
You'll notice it when those retired guys from DuPont Circle start fleeing in their jets to South America in droves, if they haven't already.
Commenters feel free to add on to this.
I have a feeling many of them will go to New Zealand. The queen is a prolific owner there and they have kept it nice for themselves.
I am not sure what you mean. As far as I know the Queen owns no land here.
New Zealand is chock full of "Crown property". Ain't called Crown fer nothin'. The British Crown owns about 8 percent -- 2 million hectares -- of New Zealand land, including, naturally, some of the most iconic land in the country. Most Kiwis have no clue, and especially have no clue of the oil and mineral rights that the Crown owns underneath even your little patch o' grass that you overpaid for, and pay taxes on. That's why Kiwis elected former Squid bankster John Key as PM, and he has been avidly serving his immediate master the Squid for yonks, to the detriment of all you serfs. Clueless little hobbits.
I call bullshit on that.
The Crown estate, which is the land owned by the government of NZ , makes up 40% of the land area of the country.
However, I do not disagree with your assessment of Jong Ki. But it was Merrill Lynch.
The Queen is the owner of all state lands (Crown land), buildings and equipment (Crown held property), and state-owned companries (Crown entities). Kiwis can fool themselves when they hear the words "state" or "government," but it belongs to the Queen and her heirs. You've got a LIM (Land Information Memorandum) on your property in Godzone, right? Well, look at the LINZ website. The glossory includes the following: "'Crown land' means land vested in Her Majesty that is not set aside for any public purpose or held by any person in fee simple (see the Land Act 1948, s 2)." Then, at the link entitled "Crown Property," we read that the Crown estate is eight percent of New Zealand -- "around two million hectares -- of New Zealand's land area." Look it up yourself and then try to call bullshit. Then take at look at the mineral rights section of your LIM. Surprise, Surprise!
The Squid, Merrill Lynch, Banker's Trust, the Morgue, Deutsche Bank (of 911 inside trading fame) -- such paragons of financial integrity, and I get the perps mixed up sometimes. My bad. The bankster Key worked at Banker's Trust (whatta name -- shoulda been Banker's Scumbaggery) before it collapsed due to fraudulent derivatives trading.
I think that you may be confusing the Crown estate (40% of NZ) , owned by the NZ government, with the Crown pastoral land (8% of NZ). The remaining 60% is held in fee simple .
http://www.linz.govt.nz/crown-property/crown-pastoral-land
Oil and mineral rights belong to the Crown ; that is not a surprise. Similarly I do not own the water in the river which flows over my land, which includes the bed of the river , ad medium filum, ; nor do I own the water in the vast aquifer which extends under my land. Nothing new there.
I think that you are drawing a long bow in suggesting that the Crown estate belongs to the Queen and her heirs. She is not getting much rent for it., and will never be in possession. But the history is interesting.
Look up the meaning of the word "vested". The Land Act 1948, to which you are subject, states:
" Crown land means land vested in Her Majesty which is not for the time being set aside for any public purpose or held by any person in fee simple"
She's the legal owner (and also the world's primary feudal landowner). Sure, she can't sell it as an individual, but she owns it (and her legal heirs) as the sovereign. In Canada, NZ, and Oz, government agencies allocate and dispose of land on behalf of the Crown. There is no FORMAL record of any of these countries remitting funds to the UK on behalf of the Queen, but her power is real, or at least legally genuine.
Greetings, serf!
All my land is freehold. That's not to say that serfdom does not come to all of us , in one way or another. But Lizzy doesn't get a look in for mine.
I've taken three property rights cases through the NZ courts and won all of them. That is the sort of serfdom that I can live with :-)
All of my land is freehold, too, but our original disagreement was just how much land Lizzy, as current sovereign, legally owns in NZ as Crown property.
Just wondering, as one friendly serf to another -- did you have to shell out money to win your cases, or did the losing side pay all of your costs and attorney's fees?
They did not always have a neocon PM. Not too long ago, they had a woman PM... Helen Clark who would not back down on a break in relations with Israel over Mossad agents caught with fake NZ passports. She took off in her small jet for some place and ... the door blew off. Apr 14, 2005 - A bruised and shaken Helen Clark admitted she wondered if she would die when an aircraft door flew open over the sea near Wellington ...
The pilot managed to turn around and land. There was some confusion about how such a thing could happen to the PMs jet, but she got the message and by the end of June 2005, relations were resumed.
then there were those two malaysian planes ...
Except all of it - according to real estate law
Quotes from the Repub. debate tonite: "RESTORE DEMOCRACY IN SYRIA". "America must lead a Sunni invasion of Syria to remove Assad because he gasses his own people AND Saudi Arabia DEMANDS IT.!!" (not joking) "PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH"!! (from Jeb) and "ASSAD MUST GO!!" (a general theme)
How is it that NO ONE publicly calls out these political parasites on their brazen lies.
PALM FACE
Everything leads to war. There are virtually no periods in human history without war. If there is no war, then one is being planned and prepped. It is in our nature. Peace is the exception.
Economically, poverty is the norm in all of history. We started out in caves, then tribes and for most of human history, staying healthy, finding enough to eat and not being killed or enslaved by other humans has been the norm. Poverty is normal. Prosperity is the exception and a relatively recent phenomenon.
never say never
The financial collapse of our tettering American Empire, doesn't have to lead to a hot war.
It may only lead to a 'Man on horseback' or 'Junta on horseback'.
In which case we can start saying "we have always been at war with Eastasia."
The failure is indeed intentional, it is needed to expand the war to keep the Israeli-Neocon's necks out of the nooses 9/11 FF makes inevitable if peace is allowed. The war servies Israeli and Brezienski interests, all of the gladio etc operations are to spread chaos through Israel's enemies.
9/11 FF is their weakness, the evidence is very clear to anyone who looks at even one of the main videos, e.g. Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth. Push it, and make sure all the political candidates know you oppose them until they sign one of the petitions.
Have you signed a petition? Have you told your Congressmen they are going to hang?
Dmitry, here is something else for you to consider.
Debt based economies evovle in two very well distinct phases.
The first phase is the development phase. This is a period of time when 1 new unit of debt, gives you at least 1 new unit of GDP and mal-investment is successfully masqued
When 1 new unit of debt gives you less than 1 new unit of GDP, debt based economies enter their second phase.
The second phase is the destruction phase.
In debt based economies, the management of the monetary system is imposed by an elite by decree. So, for example, in the ostensibly democratic West, the political elite has elected to run deficits as a matter of course. There has been no consultation nor has there been a debate, nor indeed was there a referendum as to whether or not it might be a good idea to run defictis year in, year out.
As the governing elite make it their business to run deficits whether the economy is expanding or contracting, year in, year out AND since there is no date of redemption for the debt necessary to make up for the deficit, then you run into the law of diminishing marginal utility.
The law of diminishing marginal utility is a compounding dynamic that eventually must go parabolic.
The diminishing marginal utility of debt guanrantees that the stewards of the system must necessarily award ever increasing degrees of immunity and privilege to selected entities.
the diminishing marginal utility of debt therefore, also guarantees that profit and, therefore, title gradually migrate towards the stewards of the monetary system and those entities that gravitate around it.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354-500-revealed-the-capital...
So, the second phase of debt based economies is characterized by government evidently having to deal with a challenging financing environment. The inevitable result manifests in gradually more onerous fiscality, more complex legislation, pervasive and intrusive government, the gradual monopolization of industry and business, thus the stifling of business dynamism and rising unemployment.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/05/declining-business-dyna...
Of course, if government allows this dynamic to progress unimpeded, the elite will be shown for what they are.
In order to avoid being show for what it is, a great social dislocation is required.
So, perpetual debt is inherently anathema to private property and, in its final denuement, must inevitably result in great social and political upheavel.
This is an arithmetical identity.
I like Orlov and I appreciate your criticism of the above article.
Despite all this I prefer to keep it simple
Are things getting exponentially or incrementally better?
Thats a negative to both of the above, they seem to be getting exponentially worse for the majority at the behest of a superminority.
. . .
Time to prepare if you haven't already.
I could quibble, but shall not - your post was overall simply far too good. Excellent stuff.
The failures are because the only thing the people calling the shots care about is their own personal enrichment. That's why pretty much every US general and admiral, upon retirement, immediately joins or forms a "consulting" company where their primary function is the exploitation of their personal network of contacts for contracts, and why elected officials when thrown out of office turn right around and become lobbyists.
Nobody gives a damn about anything but themselves anymore and what we have now is the result of that.
That is a 2nd order effect. In the upward trajector phase of a society, it pays to play positive-sum games.
Positive-sum games are stupid in this phase, it makes you the patsy.
Read "King Rat". He was an honorable man, sort of, from some point of view. But he survived.
The crimes against humanity by this Fed must be accounted for by the U.S. legal system. Their actions must be audited to understand the true extent of what they are doing, and what they have done behind the publics' backs and without authorization. Then the appropriate people there need to be prosecuted. They should face Chinese-style punishment.
When someone commits a financial crime in China, they are put to death, and beforehand they are forced to wear a sign which tells the public what crimes they have committed.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-white-collar-criminals-death-sentence-2013-7
The current U.S. legal system could indict a ham sandwich before noon.
It has no problem indicting and jailing racists and haters though.
Remember, the original Eisenhower speech stated"...the military industrial congressional complex...", which was removed, as David Stockman pointed out in his first eesay of the new year, as a 'favor' to CONgress. Also, it's the Feral Reserve System, which successfully eluded yet another audit by the so-called "people's elected representative body, CONgress". Thanks for posting Dmitri Orlov. I have been a reader for years.
Thanks god for the internet, in the new war we will know everyone needs to be killed.
if you want to know the real plan then simply read Torah
Talmud actually.
The Protocols actually
The dollar hegemony only has two ways of protecting itself. War and petroleum.
I'd say they're counting on it
If it collapses and nobody wants to play soldier, they will be F'ed with nothing to kickstart it up again. The White House and Pentagon are doing absolutely everything they can to piss people off but the fish aren't biting.