Continuing Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2009 As Initial Claims Hit 6-Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture

Something has changed! After years of consistent down-trend in initial jobless claims, the regime has change since mid-October to an uptrend. This past week saw claims rise 7k to 284k leaving the less-noisy 4-week average at 279k - its highest since early July 2015. Continuing claims also rose to 5 months highs (up over 4% in the last 3 months - the most since June 2009).

This is the largest 3month rise since the end of 2013... (before QE3 was unleashed)


And continuing claims surge by their most since 2009...


What many appears to be unable to grasp is that we have seen the best and history tells us what comes next...


Charts: Bloomberg

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db51's picture

Someone isn't counting all the layoffs.  Another Bogus Statistic.   Fucking folks around here are dropping like flies....and local small businesses haven't seen this rapid a descent in business ever.  Assholes are puckering across the Fruited Plain.

Early Retirement's picture
Early Retirement (not verified) db51 Jan 14, 2016 8:43 AM

Correct. Layoffs with any severance are not counted. "Somehow" Bloomberg fails to make note of this.

Rip van Wrinkle's picture



In the US, if you're holding down two part time jobs and lose one of them, am I correct in saying you're still working and therefore can't claim U3?

StackShinyStuff's picture

Most since... [don't say it!  don't say it!...]

Slomotrainwreck's picture

If it looks like a dead cat, bounces like a dead cat,


JRobby's picture

But!, But! The jobs report last week!?!?!?

7+ years into it, they still don't see that replacing quality middle class jobs with low paying, no benefit service jobs can not possibly stay ahead of this? Of course they know it. It suits them to lie about it.


Early Retirement's picture
Early Retirement (not verified) Rip van Wrinkle Jan 14, 2016 9:04 AM

You can only claim unemployment if you are laid off from an employer who was paying into the state's system. The amount of your benefit is based solely on how much you were making at the job you lost. If you make from your second job more than your benefit (based solely on the first), you are ineligible for unemployment. In the case you describe, the maximum benefit would be very small and the earnings from the second job would certainly exceed it. So, no benefits at all. As the claim is rejected on face, you never appear in the counting stat.

Trucker Glock's picture

"The amount of your benefit is based solely on how much you were making at the job you lost."

Where I live, state benefits are capped.  Benefits increase as previous salary approaches roughly $39k, where they are capped.  Being laid off from a $100k job yields benefits as if laid off from a $39k job.  I imagine that would be painful for high earners.  Another reason to limit debt and have significant savings.

JRobby's picture

If you are W2 and you accumulate enough wages you will get "something"

Richard Chesler's picture

Nonsense, Obongo has created millions of jobs. Everything's peachy.


Mr. President's picture
Mr. President (not verified) TeamDepends Jan 14, 2016 9:15 AM

Robust RoBOTs

847328_3527's picture
GoPro lays off 7 percent of its staff, warns of poor sales

The company faces a 30 percent revenue drop from the fourth quarter of 2014


Very Bullish.


drendebe10's picture

Yup, like the lying illegal Indonesian kenyan alien muslim fudgepacker sez, " peddling fiction."

onewayticket2's picture

if you have two bartender jobs and lose one......

db51's picture

lose one and take two burger flippiing jobs to replace it you are now counted as a +2 fucking people gain in the Obama Stat Table.  lmfao  Priceless

ThirteenthFloor's picture

Look around now, this is as good as it gets. All down hill from here.

db51's picture

and you're on the 13th floor.   At least I'm standing on terra firma.

silverer's picture

For sure, Thirteenth.  A unique time in history.

onewayticket2's picture

We've all got a meeting with the Bobs soon.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I ask again. Why do we disbelieve the lying statistics when they proclaim 'good' news and believe the lying statistics when they proclaim 'bad' news?

mandalou's picture

I do not think any of us believe it. We here on ZH know all of it to be bullshit. I think we all ask like Tyler has, Why change the music at the party now?

Ghordius's picture

it's called bias, isn't it? (though not all statistics are tampered equally, both in time and space)

xrxs's picture

Everything is goalseeked. If it supports the goal,  be skeptical,  if if does not,  be less skeptical.

NoDebt's picture

CD- why does my cat like to chase around a laser pointer?  Because it's fun, even if it's completely pointless.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Who here has proclaimed to "believe" any of it CD? I certainly have not.

It is interesting that NOW this "data" should actually correlate with what is being seen in the "market"...

Is true price discovery being allowed to return? THAT is the question...

My guess is no, but then again I have lots of cool projects going on and have been out of equities for a while, so it all entertainment for now...

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

cog why ask..i only have to look around me - not stare at a iphone as i walk, and see the disaster that is my local economy..if the data supports the reality i accept it..the blue sky propaganda does not support what I knew this, as you are working in reality not the face book - virtual lie.

waterwitch's picture

Can QE4 be far behind?

HardlyZero's picture

Yes and no.  Because of the risk of disaster, which will cause interest rates to rise, they probably cannot implement QE4.  If QE4 then interest rates will rise, killing off the host.  Trapped.

silverer's picture

I'm hearing more of that lately.  It's like handing out leaky buckets to bail the Titanic, but I'm sure they'll try it anyway.

DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid's picture

its sad that there was a time when these reports were legitimate but all GOV's are fudging the numbers

surf0766's picture

My wife walked into her job Jan 4 8:30 AM and was let go after 12 years.  Massive layoff. The produce software for colleges

mandalou's picture

I am truly saddened to hear this. I will keep you and your family in my prayers. All will work out just try and stay positive.

DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid's picture

college enrollments are dropping REALLY hard. even the community colleges are having a hard time finding warm bodies

chubbar's picture

Folks are finding out that they can stay home and not find a job just as easily as going to college, paying hunreds of thousands of dollars and not finding a job. Go figure.

InflammatoryResponse's picture

wow that is sad to hear.


odd that they aren't selling software to colleges though.


jcdenton's picture

Ben Fulford confirms via 5 Chinese shipping firms ..

Container shipping is on stand down until monetary reset ..

I'm sure you can figure out the rest ..

If you really do think you have better information and inside contacts outside of Mike Harris et al, then by all means, please do present them. We are all ears. When you do come on the air, will Fort Huachuca equally disrupt your communications (internet) ?

silverer's picture

But, but... president Golfstix just said the economy is...

Kefeer's picture

They are just getting the the "oil patch" numbers; they are very busy over there working the numbers and it takes a while to train a monkey or two.

cpnscarlet's picture

This is the expected trend. Companies couldn't find more people to lay off as "slack", then they realize that demand has kept falling and the rest have to go now. Business bankruptcy trend is expected as well.

It really is only getting worse.

Secret Weapon's picture

The hatchets are being sharpened here in Houston.  My patients are reporting massive layoffs are on the near horizon in multiple sectors across the board.. 

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Anyone who is jobless today will need to just resign themselves to the fact that the FedGov will consider them "out of the workforce" so as to keep that official unemployment stat as low as possible.  The all important Ministry Of Propaganda has to create the illusion that we all are happy and prosperous.

Charles Offdensen's picture

Hey CogDis- the real question I think you are asking is why do we believe ANY of this when it's all a lie?

We are told that evrything is just rainbows and lollipops by Barry and the boob tube yet this has been the worst year for stocks to start a year in history.

The Preezy doesn't, or does not want to see the terrorist threat of ISIS because Iran wants it that way yet our boats were captured by the Iranians and so we apologize and say thank you?!?!?!?

There are so many things to question these days and I think it time to ask ourselves what we believe and why.

For the record I tried!

Ps- it's always nice to see you posting. I can take comfort in that small bit of normalcy during this time of deceit.

E.F. Mutton's picture

American car sales and Soviet harvest reports.  Who knew they had so much in common?