Continuing Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2009 As Initial Claims Hit 6-Month Highs
Something has changed! After years of consistent down-trend in initial jobless claims, the regime has change since mid-October to an uptrend. This past week saw claims rise 7k to 284k leaving the less-noisy 4-week average at 279k - its highest since early July 2015. Continuing claims also rose to 5 months highs (up over 4% in the last 3 months - the most since June 2009).
This is the largest 3month rise since the end of 2013... (before QE3 was unleashed)
And continuing claims surge by their most since 2009...
What many appears to be unable to grasp is that we have seen the best and history tells us what comes next...
Charts: Bloomberg
(2 votes)
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As I said yesterday...I am a buyer when oil hits $25, IBB hits $125 and Unemployment hits 525....
All the seasonal UPS help are getting their slips.
This probably is as good as it gets. Frankly, the economy can handle an uptick in layoffs, so long as it stays a bit muted. Under 300K forever is a pipedream, with expanding labor force and jobholder numbers.
There's always next Christmas season. I see Black Monday Labor Day sales in our future.
Unadjusted initial claims still down about 25K year over year. The people won't get worried until this year's number is consistently higher than last's.