More Strategists Throw In The Towel: "Things Will Only Get Worse"
Something has definitely changed in the market: while for the past seven years (a period largely coincident with an easy, ZIRPing or QEing Fed) every day would be greeted with numerous research pieces, all urging traders to buy the dip, and to otherwise stay invested in stocks, now all the equity firms have turned their back on the S&P, and first Goldman, then JPM, then UBS, then every other equity trader has urged clients not only not to BTFD any more, but to STFR.
So having been so rudely abandoned by equity analysts, perhaps dejected stock investors could find some solace in the Treasury analyst community?
Alas no: as Bloomberg notes this morning, citing independent Treasury strategist Marty Mitchell, "our concern is that things will only get worse (effects of commodity super-cycle, bankruptcies, debt defaults, hedge fund redemption/failures, global economic slowdown, equity weakness, global debt deleveraging, etc, etc) before they get better."
His suggestions: "The underlying bid in the bond market will be with us for awhile," adding that "strength in the bond market isn’t only about safety as global fundamentals and structural changes in China’s economy and in the energy sector are depressing yields as well."
He concludes with a refrain that has been music to equity investors' ears, at least until now: "buying on dips, when we are fortunate enough to get them, is the most prudent strategy."
One problem: he is referring to Treasury dips, not stock dips.
Some other observations from Treasury strategist morning notes courtesy of Bloomberg:
BMO (Aaron Kohli): “Morning session thus far offers us precious little change in the tone of the market and very little reason to doubt the momentum that has prevailed for the last few days”
- “One of the more important data points this week will be the Retail Sales number out tomorrow, which will dictate to some extent whether the market’s lack of confidence is being mirrored by the consumer”
CRT (David Ader): “While we worry over the disinflationary things going on globally, we still think inflation will pick up due to base effects in the coming months and –- we say this with decreasing confidence –- spook the bond market”
- “We don’t doubt that Treasuries are getting into overbought territory,” however “market is doing nothing wrong and we won’t second guess that until, well, it does and then go-with what we suspect will prove merely a tactical retreat”
FTN (Jim Vogel): “Balance of risks suggests a potential 8bp decline in 10s -- unless the Fed really did make a mistake in December -- vs a potential 20bp increase if stock declines are more madness than method”
- “Most portfolio managers should continue to invest gradually while targeting the type of bargains that typically become available if there’s a sharp sell-off”
RBS (John Briggs): “Treasuries are overbought near term, but continue to rally”
- Neither yields, commodities, nor equities “have shown some of the classic reversal signals that would give us, and investors, price action to lean on”
(6 votes)
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Free Spider-Man towels
Nice.
Hey PPT pump harder!!
This is what happens when you let "The Tribe Inc." control your country, they rob it blind and destroy it. Remove the bagels and their minions and institute real reform, problem solved
That's what she said.
I forgot about those. Anyone have a picture of what they looked like?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/broke-bankia-runs-out-toasters-it-has-bold...
Free Spider-Man crying towels for all of the stock traders ...
I got free snow pants and they're actually not shitty in any way. Lol, the free shit army is fun.
That's some serious list she got there, boys!
Quick! Sprinkle more Bammy Dust!
Bullard has been bullarding this morning...
Treasuries overbought....Lol. Sorry pal, treasuries still have a ways to go.
Imagine if they ever spoke such idiocy about stocks. Treasury yields are still much higher than a year ago, the world is much worse (in a dumb bull's eyes) and our yields are still higher than Italy's.
Such stupidity. If it weren't for it, it wouldn't be possible to make so much on treasuries. It's great.
No shit Sherlock!
We knew it for almost 2 years since oil went down as a casualty and bankruptcies skyrocketed and debt went into trillions and terrorism went exponential.........
These analcysts need to get the cyst out of their anus!
And return whatever the fuck degrees that they have ......and.... have the guts to stand out alone without the support of their blue blooded father's money!
When this gets through they will wish they still had a towel to call their own.
Take a look at the Daily Job Cuts site...spiking company closings and layoffs this month. Unemployment numbers have finally turned which will kill construction and put the final nail in the economy...all to wait for now is the Fed announcement of delaying more hikes and then the cherry on top of QE5.
I'm confused, cuz Barry-O just said our economy was the envy of the the world.
Something tells me I should start investing heavily in Ramen Noodles stock.
When you live in a shack, and everyone else has a cardboard box, you are envied. It's all relative.
Very true...
See many more cardboard boxes in the years to come.
That will be the "Getting better" part, unfortunately. Cardboard boxes for the win!
The smell of one's shit is relative, isn't it? Barry obviously likes his own brand.
last july we had our semi-annual meeting w/our financial guy. he's smart/knowledgeable but predictably a bit of a kool-aid drinking "everything is awesome!" type. I pulled up the following chart on my mac:
http://tinyurl.com/jto8xh4
pointed to 90s ramp, said: "this was a bubble that 'nobody could have seen coming', pointed to the 00s ramp, said: 'this was a bubble that 'nobody could have seen coming', pointed to present ramp & said: "but this is not a bubble that anyone/everyone can see coming?". we agreed to go 80% defensive (shoulld've done 100) & the trades cleared start of august literally a couple days before that drop. we've still had some losses (so far) but they're ~2% vs the 10%+ they'd have been had I not put my foot down.
funny how the only people who can "see it coming" are the ignorant muppets whose comp isn't tied to churn, huh?
Exactly!. Unfortunately i reached that point in life where you think you have to invest in 1999. In those days we had no internet , newspapers or tv around here, I knew nothing, so I put my trust in my UBS man. He put me into 4 famous funds which all but one, it turns out, was riding the tech bubble.
In the next three years I lost 40% I could not afford. Big lesson. I now manage my own which is better but still the unpredicted calamities every few years.
I bet the UBS money manager kept telling you to keep buying !
Maverick
"funny how the only people who can "see it coming" are the ignorant muppets whose comp isn't tied to churn, huh?"
From Upton Sinclair:
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"
I'll say to these morons: "I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!"
Trouble is they have pumping all theway down up till now ,so ordinary small investors are trapped down here as usual.
Now it has already happened, we see unanimity!
Well, DUH... welcome to reality.
While fundamentals scream"worst yet to come" realty is that this is an election year and by Q3, PPT or some reasonable facsimile thereof will step in and save the day. They can't "let this sucker go down". Wars & terrorism will ad obfuscation as needed. Unicorns & HY (formerly junk) may be at risk. PM's at 5% of portfolio still reasonable insurance.
Add a 3 and make it 35% of your portfolio and I would agree. The remainder you can allocate between guns, ammo, whiskey, food, and sharp knives.... My kind of portfolio allocation, and one that has been back tested going back to Fred Flintstone,,,
I've also been laying up a supply of porn and recorded football games-- two items that are ridiculously cheap today but are going to be in mighty short supply when the world goes farmer.
“Most portfolio managers should continue to invest gradually while targeting the type of bargains that typically become available if there’s a sharp sell-off”
"I see dead people."
I see dead people, too. And more coming.
Genie oil is my top post-apocalyptic 'buy.'
goyim i...
Stake in the heart of companies that schemed to pump their own stocks and bottom lines thru stock buybacks. They wil be looking foolish very soon.
btw- I think the PPT has been working to make this a controlled descent. At key points I am seeing a pumping to stall the fall.
Gotta be the new motto for PPT: Stall the Fall.
There's too much 'fake debt.'
Now, 'fake debt' is not a recognized technical term, ergo it is not employed by economists in their in-paradigm analyses of what is wrong with 'the economy,' but in a nutshell, the fundamental problem is too much fake debt and the fake wealth generated, and deemed 'real' on the other side of the coin. Wealth produced without labor, on paper... More debt than can ever be realistically paid.
This stuff isnt complicated.
But it is very important that it all seem well beyond the ken of Joe and Jane tax slave. Best they not know who owns the NY Fed, either.
:0)
Markets crashing UP? Just who buys stocks in this environment? I guess the PPT is not busy with other issues. The habit of running those algos with the positive spin for 7 years dies hard.
Assuming that the Brothers in Crime & Co. always advise against their clients interest could this STFR advice mean that they know QE4 is coming?
At this point, in the "olden days", this is where the "smart money" would declare the bottom as we've "reached capitulation".
This is where we (the dumb money) watch and see what they do now...