“Buy Gold” As Equities “Rolling Over” – UBS
“Buy Gold” As Equities “Rolling Over” – UBS
by Mark O'Byrne
UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016?, it is time to “buy gold”.
In their just released research note entitled ‘The 7-Year Cycle in Equities Is Rolling Over … Buy Gold!’, analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Müller believe the bear market that has dominated the price of gold since 2011 is nearing a bottom, with the “basis for the next multi-year bull market” now taking hold:
“Gold we expect to move into a major 8-year cycle bottom in 2016, as the basis for a new multi-year bull market.”
“Gold has been trading in a cyclical bear market since 2011. In 2016, we expect gold and gold mines moving into an 8-year cycle bottom as the basis for the next multi-year bull market. Initially, we see gold profiting as a safe haven and as of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market.”
“In contrast to the underlying secular trend in commodities (which has turned bearish) we see gold (which is in our view a currency and not a commodity) still trading in a secular bull market.
Pattern wise we continue to see the 2011/2016 cyclical bear market in the same context as the 1975/1976 bear cycle in gold. Keep in mind, in the mid-70s gold lost 43% of its value from its January 1975 top before another gold bull market started into the January 1980 bubble peak. It is amazing to see that with a loss of 45% from its August 2011 top into the early December 2015 low, the decline in gold has more or less exactly the same proportion as in the mid-70s.
Furthermore, there are still a lot of market commentators who say that the August 2011 top in gold was the top of a bubble. According to the average gains we have seen in historical financial bubbles, the gold bull run from 2001 into 2011 (760%) was far away from any bubble territory.
In the first gold bubble, gold gained 2400%. In the 1903 to 1929 Dow bubble, the Dow Jones Industrial gained 1200%. The 1979-1989 Nikkei bubble came in at around 2000% and the 1980 – 2000 Nasdaq bubble topped out a +3900%.
So if gold moves into a bubble, we would need to see a gold price of minimum $3,300, and in this case we would still talk about a low bubble phenomena such as the 1903 – 1929 Dow Jones bubble!!”
The research and charts are well worth a read and can be accessed here
Precious Metal Prices
15 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,081.80, EUR 991.38 and GBP 753.17 per ounce
14 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,090.75, EUR 998.03 and GBP 759.10 per ounce
13 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,081.80, EUR 1,000.00 and GBP 749.04 per ounce
12 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,094.95, EUR 1,008.76 and GBP 756.92 per ounce
11 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,104.70, EUR 1,014.08 and GBP 758.18 per ounce
8 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,097.45, EUR 1,009.86 and GBP 750.67 per ounce
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No Mr. IRS, got no gold, got no silver, got no guns. Terrible investments. Barbarous relics.
That safe?
That's a barbarous relic, too. Too heavy to take out with the trash.
All the desk-pounding and gold can't hold $1100/oz.
We have all been watching the volatility. One thing does not change, though: human nature.
There is a move to Gold each time a sharp downturn happens.
"Gold is Money," to praphrase Mr. Morgan.
Keep stackin'
Keep packin'
Gold:SPX ratio persistent RSI divergence and lessons from the past
http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/
Gold:SPX ratio persistent RSI divergence and lessons from the past
goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.com
When?
keep stackin(boxes)...
9 mm's will be a much better pm. prices will surge, ha...
surged(from where it was last time)!!
First RBS and now UBS saying to buy gold. Somethings really fishy.
They're too early. As China melts down the demand will weaken. I'm guessing the banksters are loading up on shorts. Sub $1000/oz. by July.
Is China going to melt down or is that just western propaganda? They are ready for a crash with the amount of gold they own. They invented paper money. They knew a long time ago how this would end and have been preparing with physical gold.
Bitcoin crashing, Gold soon to follow....
When was the "first"bull market in gold?
I like to day trade gold. @_@
“In contrast to the underlying secular trend in commodities (which has turned bearish) we see gold (which is in our view a currency and not a commodity)....."
"Currency?"
Gold is Money, Fishes!
I can just NOT take any "bullish" or "bearish" analysis on gold seriously while there is blatant, gargantuan ludicrous naked shorting by the casino managers. May as well read analysis of slot machine trends. Am I off base on that?
It takes real courage to buy gold in this environment of blatant psyops warfare against goldbugs. At the same time, tha casino managers including the PBOC are sucking up the phys. My greatest fear is that we PLEBS will have our phys taken, including the sham GLD as a tbtf bail-in. Confiscated at suppressed spot, of course.
No courage needed at all, assuming you're not a day trader, once you understand that gold can never go to zero
Yes.
The casino. can only run until the fire burns it down.
Capitulate now, bitchez
US treasuries will go UP as money seeks safe haven, and unlike shiny-shit US treasuries pay INTEREST INCOME, have very low transaction cost and zero storage cost.
Good point InnVestuhrr... It's like they always say, "As good as treasuries". You never hear anything like say, "As good as gold".
(sarc)
InnVerstuhrr ... i reckon the only reason you post on here, is simply to wind people up..because no sensible person would choose one financial tool just to spite the other.. (ie. gold, treasuries, cash they are all tools to be used appropriatly) a wise person will hold treasuries and gold... as far as im aware there is no law forbidding holding both??
however i'll sell you gold if you want .. www.teamramgold.com/about-us
well, you outsmarted us all again. I'm going to have to agree. My deposit box will hold 50 kilo's of gold...and it does cost $70 a year. I'm going ot have to rethink my whole strategy. damn it!!
You remind me of all the losers that laughed at Peter Schiff when he was predicting the 2008 crash...
I just don't know why.
InnVestuhrr, you sir have my shill of the week award for this
"unlike shiny-shit US treasuries pay INTEREST INCOME"
Gold is insurance & a store of value first & formost, as its "REAL MONEY".... what did you think it was.... Paper? lol
Enjoy
Right. INTEREST INCOME=risk compensation.
The fedgov has gotten away with how many years of NOT paying risk compensation? About 8? There probably will be a great dollar rally this year as the FED pulls in the monetary tide. Gold will get cheaper in $, but not worth less in the long run.
Treasuries pay interest because there is inherent risk. Countries defaulting on their debt is not a rare occurance, especially when you include default by inflation.
Besides, gold is hedge against stupidity of governments, which is one of the surest bets on planet earth. One big war, one big depression, one big disaster or all three, and intrinsic values can drop. So your treasury may pay out at par, but everything you own is worth less. Except your shiny shit.
So durring the 1930's depression when was the best time to have bought gold in retrospect,
Y2K was good.
Well, back then more folks HAD gold in their possession, and considered it money. Hopefully, you would have seen what was coming, and purchased more as possible. But there was a lot more in the people's hands then, and it was viewed very differently than today.
In a few years they tried the confiscation thing, and drove it underground for years. But people still kept and had more gold than they do today, despite the unenforceable law.
Today, almost everyone has picked through their jewelry and run to Cash-for-Gold during one of the more recent price spikes. And, except for me, I don't know anyone who has more than a couple of generic sterling trinkets, like earrings, or a bracelet. No one owns so much as a single sterling spoon. I own several complete sets of antique sterling, and those were big goddamned sets, with numerous specialized pieces...all the various forks and spoons and toe-pickers and such...but I am alone. And those who know me think me a little odd.
What I worry about is how we are going to handle our inevitable currency crisis after so aggressively spurning and ridiculing PM's in general as hopelessly outdated. Historically, the people whose leaders debased and destroyed their currencies always had gold, and a strong tradition of seeing it as MONEY, so they were able to segue from failing economies to whatever came next.
When the fiat tanks, and dies, there's going to be a lot of confusion and scrambling to find something that acts like, well, gold.
There's always lead for us poor folk.
1930's=moonshine. Now, pot?
http://research.perthmint.com.au/
today this article was released stating the update of german gold repatriation. Remember the day Germany announced the repatriation, gold was $100's higher. Common sense dicated that would be good for the gold price, lead to a delivery frenzy and possible break leveraged paper gold. But it did not and gold fell dramatically. Alao remember that the first bars germany got back were not the original but newly smelted bars. Bundesbank gave a very weak explanation for this. It seems to me that the entire gold price collapse might have been intended to get germanys gold back with newly mined gold on the cheap. Well this article stated that much has now been returned and its ;ossible in 2016, this year, it might all be returned. Might the need to keep gold pric pinned down be released soon? maybe....