Atlanta Fed Waits Until The Close To Reveal 0.6% Q4 GDP Estimate

Tyler Durden's picture


With less than half an hour until the close, we asked the Atlanta Fed - the most accurate predictor of GDP - which was scheduled to post an update of its Q4 GDP NowCast following today's ugly economic data, if it was was planning on releasing its latest Q4 GDP estimate before or after the close, something it usually does just before noon.

And, at close ahead of a three day weekend, the economists in charge of the sacred GDP excel model, finally did what they were supposed to do hours later and revised Q4 GDP growth to just 0.6%, a number which some - such as Barclays - would say is too high in light of the economic drop the US economy has experienced in the past month. Note the timestamp:

Here is the argument:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8. The forecast for fourth quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.


As a reminder 0.6% is how much the US economy "grew" by in the revised Q1 2015 quarter when the "harsh weather" was blamed for unleashing hell on US GDP. Whose fault will it be this time?

Worse, it means that Yellen raised rates in a quarter in which the US economy may well end up contracting in nominal terms.

Finally, perhaps the fact that the Atlanta Fed waited as long as it did, is confirmation that bad news for the economy is now bad news for stocks, at least until the Fed does fold and either cut or launch more QE.

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:16 | 7052554 SHEEPFUKKER

Someone have a spare time piece they can give the good people at the Atlanta Fed?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:18 | 7052576 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture


Recession in -8 years, -7 years, -6 years...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:22 | 7052605 Truther
Truther's picture

Depression is NOW. Fuck the FED and their SHITHEADS .

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:24 | 7052622 yogibear
yogibear's picture

 Piled Higher and Deeper (PhD) SHITHEADS.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:28 | 7052640 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



How Dare They???!!!


Tell the Atlanta Fed to 'Peddle their Fiction' somewhere else...


Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:18 | 7052906 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You just be a peddlin racists mfer...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:52 | 7053292 LowerSlowerDela...
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

Unusually warm winter's fault!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:22 | 7052608 Manthong
Manthong's picture

To be revised down later,

At least the December jobs report was fantastic.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:30 | 7052653 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

I think they said its only seasonally adjusted, when they double seasonally adjust it, it will be 3%.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:32 | 7052669 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Doubleplus seasonally adjusted good.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:36 | 7052686 Kprime
Kprime's picture

years ending in a 5 are triple plus adjusted.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:43 | 7052733 silverer
silverer's picture

Can't wait for 2016 first quarter report.  Somehow, that will have to be positive.  They're working on it already.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:53 | 7053302 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Even a negative print in 2016Q1 won't matter because it will be Recovery Summer 8.0 in just a few months and that will prevent the 2 consecutive negs to make an "official" recession. Never mind that we have been in a depression since 2000.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:16 | 7052556 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still cannot figure out why this branch of the cartel is being allowed to be so "truthy"...


Still standing by to buy the dip, but definitely think it will be a while...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:42 | 7052726 silverer
silverer's picture

I heard about 17 years.  Plenty of time to go have a few beers.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:56 | 7052778 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

If they have a dissenting opinion that's closer to reality, they can later point to it as having a finger on the economies pulse that wasn't as far off.

That provides cover for the greater lot who weren't close to reality.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:34 | 7052560 remain calm
remain calm's picture

I promise you i won't cum in your mouth. I have total control. :)  oops. Sorry.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:38 | 7052693 ghengiskhan
ghengiskhan's picture

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:17 | 7052565 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Atlanta Fed needs to be bitch slapped for not following Dear Leader's exhortations.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:17 | 7052570 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They didn't revise it down far enough.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:20 | 7052594 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

'Blue Chip' consensus.


Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:18 | 7052571 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

For some ungoldly reason I just can't shake the feeling of certitude that some group of well connected persons might just have been provided this information prior to it's public release...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:19 | 7052587 Rainman
Rainman's picture

no surprise...only thing growing is health care costs

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:30 | 7052660 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Dont sell the giverment short, its growing at a pretty healthy clip.....

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:38 | 7052701 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

And moochelle Obama's ass.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:22 | 7052604 Bear
Bear's picture

Someday, bad news is going to be bad

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:24 | 7052626 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

News is just news. There are those with means, and those without.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:30 | 7052658 Insurrexion
Insurrexion's picture



I thought the Atlanta Fed was at least somewhat truthy.

Maybe they are truth after Black Friday comes...


Here is a little confirmation prophecy from an american author I follow:



Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:37 | 7052695 Truth Eater
Truth Eater's picture

They publish SEASONALLY Adjusted numbers.  That means they put so much seasoning on it, you don't know that you are eating a shit sandwich.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:41 | 7052714 silverer
silverer's picture

The group working on these numbers was told they had to make the final number positive.  It was a big meeting.  They sat and talked for hours.  Some of them called their high school math teachers for advice.  Lots of coin flipping, etc..  Well, looks like they managed it.  Unfortunately, the number is false.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:42 | 7052723 Ghost of Porky
Ghost of Porky's picture

1) Buy some aircraft carriers on credit.


2) GDP grows!


3) Impress your friends!


4) Repeat.



Sat, 01/16/2016 - 04:42 | 7054474 August
August's picture

Your children will thank you for some great dive sites.

The only question is where.  I'm betting on warm water, for sure.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:44 | 7052737 Truth Eater
Truth Eater's picture

They dare not publish negative numbers because the R-word becomes a concern.  If you fudge the numbers to be even slightly positive, we magically never have a recession. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:55 | 7052786 Rellorellin
Rellorellin's picture

Only to be "Double Seasonally Adjusted" to 3%.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:59 | 7052802 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Things to ponder....

if a tree falls in the forest and there is nobody there to hear it, does it make a sound?

If the Fed releases a reduction (again) in the GDP estimate after hours on a Friday, and there is nobody left at work to read it, did the reduction not happen?


Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:27 | 7052949 Nero_Hedge
Nero_Hedge's picture

No, it just makes vibrations. "Sound" is merely our brain's attempt to process these vibrations

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:01 | 7052810 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture


So Janet, please answer these pressing questions:

1) if the gambling public loses everything in their 401ks, will they be able to depend on Social Security in a few years?

2) Does it matter that the National Debt is flying past $20 Trillion and doubled in 7 years?

3) Will the new trillions that you are printing be able to buy things?  

4) Will you be able to print enough to keep-up with new debt that is piled on going forward?

5) Will your hubris run out before or after the dollar crashes?

6) Who will replace you when the gig is up and you are put behind bars where you belong?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:08 | 7052840 White Rabbit Wh...
White Rabbit White Rabbit's picture

Well .6% does suck indeed.

Our economy is still stable. We need fiscal stimulus, less monetary.

The Fed indirectly has given us an amazing opportunity to put tax payer dollars to work to really invest in our future.

War spending just wastes metal on creating bullets that just rot in the ground in the desert. Tax cuts mostly benefit wealthier to spend on luxury items. That create less jobs as they just buy upgraded items at higher margins for companies to reinvest in expensive products that only a few can afford etc etc.

Need to launch a $1 trillion spending plan to refresh infrastructure, invest in our people's health. A sick person is an economic drain and a healthy one is a gain. Period. Need to invest in technology. We need to ditch mass manufacturing that China does better.

If those that hold the wealth are hurting us. It is our right to fight back.
I have no problem with someone being insanely more wealthy than I. So long as they contribute to a better world.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:18 | 7052907 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"a healthy one is a gain" - technically they both have to eat.  The healthy one is only a "gain" if the fucker actually produces something of greater value than the value of the food they consume...


Ever hear of a "useless eater?"  Plenty of those fuckers around.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:24 | 7052930 r00t61
r00t61's picture

Oh yay.

More of the same tired stimulus baloney from the Keynesian Klown Kollege.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:17 | 7052901 markar
markar's picture

Even .6% is BS if you measure inflation properly.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:22 | 7052924 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

They have to wait until we are out of a recession before they can admit we were in a recession.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:38 | 7052986 kenny500c
kenny500c's picture

You can't forecast something that happened in the past, like Q4 GPD, but you can estimate it.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:44 | 7053015 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

just a matter of.......    minutes ?



Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:46 | 7053026 saldulilem
saldulilem's picture

Eh, 0.8, 0.6, what's a little 0.2% between friends?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:44 | 7053773 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

We can also look at it as a decline of 25%, and that's huge.

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