Black Friday

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unleash hell...

And this...

Worst Start To A Year... Ever!

 

It's ugly in 'Murica...

 

Of course - it's not just US, China has collapsed this year...(Worst start to a year ever)

Japan was a shitshow..

 

And Europe is in a bear market having erased all of the Q€ gains... (Worst start to a year ever)

 

The day in stocks...

  • *NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX SINKS 2.7% TO LOWEST IN 14 MONTHS
  • *S&P 500 FALLS 2.2% TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUG. 25

But that level was heavily defended...

 

 

The week in stocks... worst 3-week drop in S&P, Dow, Trannies, Small Caps, and Nasdaq since Aug 2011

 

2016 in stocks...

 

Since The Fed rate-hike in stocks...

 

Since The Fed across asset-classes...

 

Since the end of QE3 in stocks...

 

It's a bloodbath in FANGs and Biotechs...

 

FANTAsy stocks are really ugly year-to-date (cap-weighted FANGs are down 12% YTD, Biotechs -17%)

 

Surprise - Equity markets catch down to on balance volume...

 

Financials bloodbathery fell to catch down to credit...

 

On the week, credit remains the leader...

 

But credit signals more pain to come... in stocks...

 

Especially in the most credit-sensitive small caps...

 

And VIX...

 

With Energy credit risk at its highest on record...

Carnage Continues, Energy Yields Set Record High

(Bloomberg) -- WTI oil has dropped to a new 12y low, falling below $30/bbl, triggering a broad sell-off across asset classes, with equities dropping 2.6%, HY ETFs falling 1.6% (lowest levels since 9/09), HYCDX slipping 1.1% and cash bonds falling across sectors led by oil companies in the Energy sector.

 

The BofAML U.S. HY Energy index YTW set a new historical high last night closing at 17.43%, surpassing the 17.048% close on 12/5/2008 during the height of the financial crisis

 

As of Wednesday’s close, the BofAML U.S. HY Energy index option adjusted spread to Tsys closed at +1,501, eclipsing the previous wide level seen at the height of the crisis of +1,494 on 12/5/2008

 

Energy bonds were roiled led by Sanchez Energy which plummeted 32% intraday followed by EP Energy (-15%), Whiting Petroleum (-13%), and Oasis Petroleum (-11%)

 

As Energy, Materials, and Financials lead the collapse in stocks since The Fed rate-hike...

 

Treasury yields collapsed this week (with the curve flat)...

 

And the USD Index gave up some of its gains to end the week up 0.3%... USDJPY dropped 0.25% on the week

  • *RUSSIAN RUBLE WEAKENS 2% TO 77.603 PER DOLLAR, RECORD-LOW CLOSE

Commodities were a mess with Gold and silver best (unch to modestly lower) while copper and crude were clubbed...

 

Crude closed below $30 for the first time since September 2003...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Rate-Hike Odds have plunged...

Bonus Bonus Chart: Value is collapsing and Momentum remains high post-QE3 - we suspect that will revert... (h/t @groditi)

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:51 | 7053290 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I've been trying to get her out of that uniform for some time. But yes, she does do justice to anything she wears.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:50 | 7053043 Jack Oliver
Jack Oliver's picture

Actually the world doesn't want dollars and countries like China and Russia are cashing out of US dollars - they are using the toxic dollars to finance things like 'Island Building' and 'ISIS slaughtering' - The Chinese are engineering the US dollars complete collapse.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:54 | 7053304 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I do agree. But not short term. That is what i meant by saying "as long as the USA can get away with printing". So in a sense, I was thinking on the same lines as you. Much of the world is still playing the Dollar Hegemony game. Russia and China want out and are working on it. But for the short term, the USA is printing and the world is buying.

Make myself totally clear. The instant dollar hegemony cracks, is the instant America literally implodes.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:24 | 7053689 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

'The Fed will soon be forced to go negative interest rates, and QE to soak up the T-Bills.'

And then our economy will lie in the gutter like a cold, disemboweled carcass. Negative interest rates.  Absofuckinglutely the EPITOMY of the FEDRES ass fucking!!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 22:15 | 7053997 r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

I have to quip that the Fed balance sheet isn't a real problem. It's a bunch of shitty paper assets quoted in terms of another shit paper asset. The ratio of paper shit to some other paper shit is inherently meaningless - it's made up and (if you have sufficient power) you can set it to anything you want.

The real problem is that fiat currencies, the Central Banks that manipulate them, and the national governments that are addicted to inflationary taxation through them, are hosing the real economy. They amplify the business cycle, ruin price discovery and increase the volatility of everything and cause the constant destruction and misallocation of real wealth and real labor with their endless arrogance and fraud. They turn every domestic asset market into a laughable CB-controlled scam. They know they are doing this - their "smoothing out the business cycle" line is PR bullshit and they know it - but they do it anyway because it provides an almost unimaginable amount of personal wealth and power.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:13 | 7052529 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

anyone that had any doubts that a ppt exists ( im sure there are very few if any on this site) well today they absolutely showed everyone they r in charge and they will do everything to stop a massive selling frenzy.

 

normally a -390 on the dow and -41 on the s&p and the nasdaq down nearly 3 percent would be a great day,

 

however, when the fucking indexes were free falling and the dow was down -537 looking as if we can realistically get a -700 pt down day, the ''market'' ''miraculously ''  just comes well off the lows and never comes close to coming near those levels again.

 

i am worried that tuesday ( ''market'' closed monday ) they will pump this thing up like 250 pts and end it up like 400 to try and show everything is fucking awesome.

 

fucking dirtbags

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:15 | 7052546 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

I have a feeling that Tuesday will delight you.

Or scare the living fucking shit out of you. Or perhaps both.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:17 | 7052562 mandalou
mandalou's picture

Prepare yourself because it is likely. Very fucking likely. This is being controlled and they are still not finished with the pillaging of the QE addicts.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:18 | 7052579 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They finished last summer.  All the institutional money is out.  It's just Joe Sixer in the market now.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:26 | 7052631 mandalou
mandalou's picture

Incorrect. Jp Morgue is in bad oil bets mentioned even on MSM like CNBC. They are owners of stock called FED. They have to get out which is why Gandlaf made the call 2 days ago before JP Morgan admitted to being stuck in bad oil plays. Oil made a sharp rise hours before this was released. Allowing them to get out and Gandlaf who we all know is pushing for higher oil and lower equities so they can .

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:38 | 7052702 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

There's two sides to the coin.  They have a loans division and that division is going to be fucked.  And they have client money and that money is fucked.  But you think Jaime Dimon and his cronies are long this market?  The big boys are out.  They got out last summer.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-08/institutions-dump-stocks-fifth-...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:47 | 7052749 mandalou
mandalou's picture

I do agree to an extent with you but also disagree. I do believe they are in bad trades right now just like most big banks. Why fear when you and me will bail them out. Thats how we arrived at this point. We dropped a lot this week but looking at the bigger picture its actual a small drop in the bucket which I assume we both can agree. I think we have a lot more to go before banks sweat and panic and then they may not because of the stop in place called taxpayer bail outs. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:51 | 7052755 Misanthropus
Misanthropus's picture

I saw an interview with TBoone Pickens and Carl Icahn a few months ago and they were both long oil and losing. TB is probably still long since he's an oil permabull.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:17 | 7052563 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The diminishing return of the fractionally reserved dollar is making it hard for the ppt to pump the market.  If they were the magical masters of the universe like they would have everyone believe they would have DJ 36k by now.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:18 | 7052580 khnum
khnum's picture

Looking at the ramps about 200 points in one hit is about the ammo they have,

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:21 | 7052601 DipshitMiddleCl...
DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid's picture

PPT is going HARD on Tuesday.

 

All out.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:31 | 7053447 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

They're gonna mainline Viagra.

Get those Hypos ready boys.

Yes, Mr Yellen!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:40 | 7052715 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I think a lot of us expect Tuesday to be an interesting day, in the end, I give it well over 50-50 that the PPT produces a face ripping UP day, to calm everybody down and let them know that while a correction is underway, it will not be allowed to get out of control, that it is fully backstopped by the Fed.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:50 | 7053285 29.5
29.5's picture

Just like US downgrade in 2011, there were huge swings up and down, but more so on the downside obviously. I expect nice face ripping up days followed by larger down days for the next month, if history rhymes.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:13 | 7052872 vq1
vq1's picture

my fav quote of the day. From none other than our friend over at nanex, eric.

 

"I believe we can actually see the hand of a large entity putting support in eMini's at regular price levels.."

 

and the setup:

 

"we've collected a terabyte of market data (since midnight) so far today, with an hour left until NY close.."

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:29 | 7053437 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Fuckery. Well, fuck, you don't know what they are gonna do at the PPT!

Fuck it, I'm sitting in cash. I'll buy up trannies and oil later, like a lot later, when it is even worser.

My PMs were UP today, but Hanu has only found some of them. I finally told LC54 to put Punjab back with his cousin, Hanu, and have the bastard help find them. Hanu already got a Dubai Dinar, so now Punjab is motivated. All he's gonna get is Alpo, but I have not told him.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:56 | 7054008 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

When Jim Rickard help set up the Sim Games for Currency Wars, he inadvertently help create the PPT.  Thanks, JR.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:15 | 7052539 Moustache Rides
Moustache Rides's picture

the face melt clip is perfect lmao

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:16 | 7052553 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Controlled demolition.

That's what we are witnessing. A long, drawn-out 9/11 in the markets.

"Pull it!"

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:19 | 7052585 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

y'aint seen nuthin yet....

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:20 | 7052591 die standing
die standing's picture

It's All Happening Isn't It

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:21 | 7052600 Insurrexion
Insurrexion's picture

 

 

Here's a little prophecy (that most of us knew already) from an author I follow:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/truly-big-shorts-john-m-cunningham?trk=pu...

Have a nice fucking weekend.

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:23 | 7052610 DipshitMiddleCl...
DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid's picture

I had a good week.

 

Anyone who actually trades certianly did too, granted they knew what they were doing.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:24 | 7052618 Able Ape
Able Ape's picture

HildaBeast, get OUT of the bathroom, the stawk market has to take a NY shit!.......

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:43 | 7052623 Thick Willy
Thick Willy's picture

I've lost literally nothing in this.

Wait, gold and silver are up?

Okay, I've only gained.

Burn baby burn.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:25 | 7052628 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Damn you Bush, it wasn't bad enough that you fucked up Ommammas white house occupation, now you've gone and screwed the whole world.  When will you leave us alone.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:26 | 7052632 Slowdrip
Slowdrip's picture

Agree, the face melt scene, bullseye....

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:43 | 7052732 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

I think the face melt scene was more appropriate for yesterday's short holders on the heels of the Bullard statement.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:27 | 7052637 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

MARKETS IN FUCKING TURMOIL !

6 HR CNBS special on Momday. 6 straight hours of propaganda

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:27 | 7052638 two hoots
two hoots's picture

Is there a floor?  I suggest different companies/equities have different floors.  The DOW is to small in scope, the S&P to varied to trust equality in accounting/indexing.   I think one must hand pick in this market if one wants to stay in equities.   There will be a time, soon (after earnings) I think, when one should start serious DD and look for an entry point.   NIRP (FED) or break-the-buck (SEC), or both, will put money on the sidelines in jeapordy.   I'm no financial planner/advisor, that's just my take.   Me, I'm "still hunting".

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:46 | 7053522 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

floor around 1100  (DJIA 9500) is where I'm guessing. 

fundamentals look more like 1200, but there is always psychological overshoot.

i'll probably switch from short to long around 1250.

 

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:28 | 7052639 ikhan
ikhan's picture

not pretty, gonna stay out of the bathroom!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:28 | 7052642 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

S&P falls to where it was trading 5 months ago? down 2%? who cares. Let me know when the S&P drops 20%.  

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:29 | 7052647 ikhan
ikhan's picture

not pretty, gonna stay out of the bathroom!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:01 | 7052650 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

It is a primary bear market. More than a month ago the Dow Theory signaled this primary bear market:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-decembe...

 

And  such a primary bear market signal was flashed after an old and statistically almost exhausted cyclical bull market. So the primary bear market signal carries more weight.

 

The odds favor subsequent declines. The average decline following a primary bear market signal averages ca. -13% as explained here:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html

 

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 19:25 | 7053412 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Richard Russell was hinting at that right before he passed, RIP.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 10:56 | 7055039 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Richard Russel nailed it down in 2008 and correctly (and timely) identified the bear market whereas others were still cheerleading. Here is a quote from his Letter 1437 of March 19, 2008:


“I just read a four-page treatise by a very successful analyst in which he demonstrates based on the fundamentals, why the economic situation in the US is basically healthy. This analyst may be absolutely correct, and I’ll admit I was impressed by his analysis – but I trust the market more”.
May he rest in peace.
Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:30 | 7052652 robnume
robnume's picture

I've said it before and I'll say it again, "Quick to the Plunge Protection Mobile, Batman!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:38 | 7052697 Dr Ongo
Dr Ongo's picture

"Obamaman"

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:30 | 7052656 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Wow, who coulda seen this coming?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:39 | 7052990 mendigo
mendigo's picture

You see nothing.

Watch Cramer tonight.

Then you will feel better.

Remember, watch Cramer.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 06:59 | 7052663 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:32 | 7052667 Baron Munchausen
Baron Munchausen's picture

This was all, at least in a rough timing sense, entirely predictable.

Anyone who lost money today should find a new business.

For those of you who knew that christmas bills come due - enjoy your gains.

Shemitah!!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:32 | 7052668 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Having enjoyed an entertaining week of world wide calamity, I plan to enjoy the weekend sitting on a chicago hotel balcony, sipping 40 year old scotch and counting the weekend murders down below.  I am hoping to set another record this weekend.  Maybe Ommamma will stop by his ole stomping ground and take a bullet for the country.

a fine finish to a wonderful week.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:51 | 7052767 libertysghost
libertysghost's picture

I doubt he can make it this weekend...or ever.  

 

He's got fiddles to play.  

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