If It Walks Like A Bear, Growls Like A Bear...

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 11:19 -0500

BofAML's Michael Hartnett says that clients are no longer in "denial" about recession/bear market risks; but clients not yet willing to "accept" we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market.

How about now?

As Hartnett warns, if it walks like a bear, and growls like a bear...

US 5y5y forward breakeven (USGG5Y5Y) collapses to lowest level since Mar’09.

Global equity market cap loss in first 9 trading days of 2016: $5.7 trillion (= GDP of France & UK combined).

Since end QE3 (Oct’14) median global stock in MSCI ACWI (2489 stocks) down 23% from its high (as is equal-weighted US stock index – Chart 1). Over same period 1435 global stocks (58% of total) down >20% & 869 (35%) down >30%

From highs: Biotech (XBI) -43%, Transport (TRAN) -28%, Homebuilders (S5HOME) -23%, small cap (RTY) -22%, FANG stocks -11%...ominously following biotech lower.

And if you thought this was the buying moment of panic, think again...

Risk-off flows: largest equity outflows in 18 weeks ($12bn) vs $2bn bond inflows & $24bn money-mkt inflows…equity outflow not yet big enough to signal true capitulation

We say long cash, long vol until the 4Cs (China, Commodities, Consumer, Credit) improve; use rallies to reduce risk exposure; resumption of bull trend awaits when/if: a. PMI’s up, b. CNY & oil stability, or c. weaker US$ signaling Fed “pause”.

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050425 44MagnumPrepper

ALL HAIL MALUS

Also: Chat is turned off. Please don't make me be productive at work.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:58 | 7050456 El Vaquero

The fed tries to pull the punchbowl away. Delirium Tremens ensue.

Good times.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:24 | 7050598 KnuckleDragger-X

The movie 'Revenent' is the story of muppet investors.......

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:27 | 7050618 Hippocratic Oaf

RIP Grizzly Adams

Ironic he passed away in a bear mkt

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:29 | 7050626 Sages wife

You can never find that damn spray when you need it.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:04 | 7050460 Takeaction2

Well...We are off the lows...

The market has trimmed its gains a little more..

This may be a buying oppurtunity...

Green shoots everywhere...

CNBC...Fuck you people...and double fucks to Cramer and Liesman..

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:06 | 7050501 two hoots

There is no safety net. Fed is impotent. Just gotta let it fall and stay out of the way.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:10 | 7050521 BandGap

"double fucks"? Like double secret probation?
Wow, pulling no punches today.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:18 | 7050565 dcohen

You forgot "cautiously optimistic"

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:28 | 7050625 12357111317

Everything is awesome.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:43 | 7050704 AdolfSchicklgruber

I thought Cramer's head was fully exploded by now...on live tv. But that would require him to be a rational, sensate human being with emotions connected to a reality outside himself; the truth is he's a jewish shapeshifting alien with a silicone based blood supply.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:17 | 7050556 Wulfkind

Looking at the Equal Weighted Stock Index.....we just can't seem to break those highs. Like bumping against an invisible ceiling.

Is that a "Head & Shoulders" pattern I see there ? UH OH !!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:23 | 7050594 clade7

Evidently somewhere, the Pope is taking a shit in the blueberrys, and a bear is handing out communion!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:44 | 7050714 malusDiaz

Sup 44, I found you. you have my email. send one.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:51 | 7050427 ciscokid

Was this site brought down a few minutes ago?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:53 | 7050432 Enceladus

Yup Tyler saw Kevin Henrey and Linda Greene under the desk pulling trhe plug

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:58 | 7050457 Hitlery_4_Dictator

LOL CNBC admits Schiff was right! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sie11QXI_Q

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:03 | 7050812 Temporalist

Thanks

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:09 | 7050518 Takeaction2

Tylers...
Time for more SERVERS...
The sheep will be flocking to this site for answers...
Look at OIL...WOW...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:26 | 7050610 BarkingCat

Please do not givones.m accounts. There is no need for more idiotic commenters to contribute to the deluge of mental sludge that is drowning the worthy ones.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:51 | 7050429 BlueStreet

Writing meet wall.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:07 | 7050508 sgorem

................or, CAN, meet end of road?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:53 | 7050433 Soul Glow

The Bear Market is fiiine! It's fiiine!!!

I think Cramer said that on a Friday, by the way.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:43 | 7050702 gatorengineer

call me when we crack 1867 S&P. Until then its just Wednesday...... and a reverse Bulltard.

ALSO - Most important thing. Today is OPEX date. There could be a face melter to green this PM, or at least to 1900..... Caveat emptor

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:55 | 7050437 OregonGrown

"If It Walks Like A Bear, Growls Like A Bear..."

It's probably not a bear, but the NSA/CIA/DHS shutting down ZH! Truly thought that is what happened a few minutes ago!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:54 | 7050438 dogismycopilot

WE'RE ALL GONNA' FUCKING DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:54 | 7050443 OregonGrown

Literally

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050449 LawsofPhysics

Eventually, yes, however. Some of us will die know that our children and tribes will be just fine.

Same as it ever was, stop trying to "fix" stupid, it cannot be done, let the fuckers die already. The gene pool will be much better for it in the end.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:27 | 7050613 12357111317

What tribe am I in if I was dropped on the wrong planet? :-)

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:39 | 7050682 Cult of Criminality

867-5309

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:10 | 7051408 12357111317

Tommy Tutone. I enjoy the whole album. I could listen to that song every day. :-)

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:33 | 7050652 . . . _ _ _ . . .

If 90% of the population dies, nothing changes. If 1% of the population dies, everything changes.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:16 | 7050550 Vlad the Inhaler

Didn't they tell you at the beginning, no one here gets out alive.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:26 | 7050606 12357111317

Six billion men enter, one man leaves. :-)

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:49 | 7050742 Kprime

six billion enter, one man leaves

Listen all! This is the truth of it. Fighting leads to killing, and killing gets to warring, and that was damn near the death of us all. Look at us now, busted up and everyone talking about hard rain! But we've learned! By the dust of them all, Bartertown learned. Now, when men get to fighting, it happens here, and it finishes here! Two men enter; one man leaves.

And now, I've got two men — two men with a gut full of fear. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, dying time's here!

Thunderdome's simple. Get to the weapons. Use them any way you can. I know you won't break the rules. There aren't any.

All our lives hang by a thread. Now we got a man waiting for sentence. But ain't it the truth? You take your chances with the law. Justice is only a roll of the dice. A flip of the coin. A turn... of the Wheel

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:54 | 7050442 _ConanTheLibert...

Speaking of bears, how's Putin doing?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:25 | 7050603 12357111317

I think he's bearing up. :-)

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:45 | 7050725 Kprime

that's beary good.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:44 | 7050710 gatorengineer

Russian posted a 9 Billion positive trade balance.... so OK.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:54 | 7050444 LawsofPhysics

LOL!!! "no inflation" my ass. One can avoid reality for quite a while (especially if one has access to FREE money that one does not have to actually perform real WORK for), but eventually the consequences of doing so will catch up with you.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050450 Mr. Bystander

Hold your nose! For a variety of reasons.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050451 PrezTrump

Tylers BTC news is out...

Jump on it

http://news.slashdot.org/story/16/01/15/1310214/big-trouble-for-bitcoin

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050452 ebworthen

C'mon S&P, break 1,865 to make it a great Friday!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:11 | 7050523 vq1

looks like you might get your wish.

cmon ppt, dont drop the ball now!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:18 | 7050571 SillySalesmanQu...

They are defending 16,000 and 1865 like there is no tomorrow... Yellins last stand?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:45 | 7050723 gatorengineer

half life of the jawboning isnt doing too good. The Bulltard and then negative rates comment should have been good for 1000 vertical.....

Its a long way down after 1865.....

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:11 | 7050524 two hoots

You just may get your wish. Lunch hour and many will log in and discover the carnage and make adjustments to bonds/sidelines. Take affect Monday but institutions will know right away.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:05 | 7051800 Sorry_about_Dresden

Feels like I am at the track watching an incredibly slow horse race. Come on 1864!!!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 10:57 | 7050454 PrezTrump

Tylers BTC news is out...

Jump on it

http://news.slashdot.org/story/16/01/15/1310214/big-trouble-for-bitcoin

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 11:22 | 7050588 css1971

Meh. Not news. This was obvious to anyone with an ounce of grey matter.

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