If It Walks Like A Bear, Growls Like A Bear...
BofAML's Michael Hartnett says that clients are no longer in "denial" about recession/bear market risks; but clients not yet willing to "accept" we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market.
How about now?
As Hartnett warns, if it walks like a bear, and growls like a bear...
US 5y5y forward breakeven (USGG5Y5Y) collapses to lowest level since Mar’09.
Global equity market cap loss in first 9 trading days of 2016: $5.7 trillion (= GDP of France & UK combined).
Since end QE3 (Oct’14) median global stock in MSCI ACWI (2489 stocks) down 23% from its high (as is equal-weighted US stock index – Chart 1). Over same period 1435 global stocks (58% of total) down >20% & 869 (35%) down >30%
From highs: Biotech (XBI) -43%, Transport (TRAN) -28%, Homebuilders (S5HOME) -23%, small cap (RTY) -22%, FANG stocks -11%...ominously following biotech lower.
And if you thought this was the buying moment of panic, think again...
Risk-off flows: largest equity outflows in 18 weeks ($12bn) vs $2bn bond inflows & $24bn money-mkt inflows…equity outflow not yet big enough to signal true capitulation
We say long cash, long vol until the 4Cs (China, Commodities, Consumer, Credit) improve; use rallies to reduce risk exposure; resumption of bull trend awaits when/if: a. PMI’s up, b. CNY & oil stability, or c. weaker US$ signaling Fed “pause”.
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Seems to me that using bitcoin is just using one type of electronic money (bitcoins) instead of using another type of electronic money (Fed dollars).
New Rhetorical Cliche: Does a Bear shit on Wall Street?
The stock market is behaving like 2008, gyrating +-100 points within minutes . . . not good. Get ready to by gold, the fed is about to blink.
The fed's going to need a bigger balance sheet.
Exponentially bigger.
Janet Felon is nowhere to be found.
She and Stanley rehindged the doors to open inwards and left the building.
She's baking cookies and will return shortly.
Yeah, chocolate chip laced with cyanide.
This is my time
"Down here is our time"
Goonies
RIPS
Unbearable
Betty Lui on Bloomberg said "Panic Selling!"...."Wholesale Panic!"
London is being gutted.
555 cud b earlier than expected.
VNQ (realty): Just eyeballing the weekly charts, it looks to me like VNQ just had its inverted-W confirmed, so maybe that will send it back down to 70 or so, where it was in August. So... no help from realty?
:-) Does this mean that people are investing their gasoline savings in powerball instead of houses? :-)
Fresh Kona coffee, fresh Kona buds, and CNBC, perfect.....
Love Kona and the Big Island. Spent many days swimming with the dolphins down at K Bay, Two Step (City of Refuge) and Hookena Beach.
A magical place...
Too much doom & gloom, bring back the hot Brazilians. They don't shit in the woods.
Who is adding more short position today?
In my version of The Revenant, The Bear wins
Russell sliced through 1000, no support anywhere to be seen.
Damn it Scotty, Im a plumber not a rocket scientist !Moar plungers Now..Now Scotty
I cccant hhold it
Scotty
Scotty
I just transfered some money from saving to checking for obvious reasons and got stuck listening to "The FDIC is a independent agency of the US .gov and is backed by the full faith and credit of the US .gov." I had to hear this over and over again while on hold, this is new, they used to only say that once and then go on about how great the community and bank is.
The full faith and credit of the US .gov Bitchez!
Yeah i did a big transfer also, have to have some dry powder. always best to have a couple torpedoes in the tubes..
I expect massive margin calls to force investors to liquidate their position to raise funds between 3-4pm
can someone please pull the circuit breaker or else I'm going to have to pull my ripcord.
Generally a bear market is called at 20% down. The S&P futures are down around 13% at 1870 from its 2134 all time high, and won't be 20% down until 1707. But with 58% of individual issues down more than 20% the bear has already bit people holding the underlying in the butt for sure. But you don't wait for a bear anyway. You get the hell out before the bear shows up. Anybody who didn't hedge or go cash ahead of the first FOMC increase in nearly a decade, and wait for a break of the ATH flat, sorry but I don't feel sorry for them. A bugle call two inches from their ear at 6 am wouldn't wake them up. What do you think "smart money" was doing for an entire year sideways? They were hedging.
Remeber TEOTWAWKI? This is it! BTFD bitchez!
When the stock market hands you lemons, you take a shot, drink a beer, and make yellow snow.
Update, CNBC, "US Tresury Dept. will be watching the 'markets'...."
Isn't popcorn, what kept them WACO girls so slim.
YOU GO BEAR! Take a huge, steaming dump!
I just fucking love the title. :)
Julie Hyman is on Bloomberg trying to minimize the run and talk the market up.
Can she do it?
She asks "has the BTFD mentality changed?"
What do you think people.
I am still holding SPXU I bought, and got slaughtered, in Oct 2011. I want to cash out in a week or two when it goes below 555!
http://quotes.wsj.com/fx/USDCNY
Also watching strange movement in Chinese reminbi.....fascinating!
Haven't seen gold and yield on th 10 year go up simultaneously.
Commentor used the terming "market spanking"...I love it!
Gold 1089.9 16.3 1.52% U.S. 10 Yr?18/32 Yield 2.029%