Revisiting The "No Brainer" XIV-SPY Convergence Trade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At the start of September last year, as stocks began to ramp aggressively off the Black Monday crash lows, we unveiled a rather discomforting "decoupling" that suggested strongly "don't believe the hype."

Specifically, on August 30 we said that of all trades out there, the XIV-S&P convergence trade is as close to a "no brainer" as it gets:

Four months later, and able to remain strongly convicted of the trade, the inverse VIX ETF (XIV) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have recoupled back at the lows from August 24th. We await the recoupling of equity exuberance to credit curmudgeon-ness...

 

September...

 

And now - equities have collapsed back to the VIX complex's reality...

 

Time to exit.

* * *

What next?

 

Because VIX has a lonmg way to go too!

 

Trade Accordingly.

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:55 | 7052107 yrad
yrad's picture

Here comes the Ramp!! Grab your socks and pull!

 

*munches on popcorn

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:59 | 7052119 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

PPT to the rescue! Only down 375 as of this!

Die Mr. Yellen, die!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:01 | 7052127 RadioFlyer
RadioFlyer's picture

I can let go of my ankles now?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:06 | 7052154 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"PPT powers activate!"

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:22 | 7052240 yrad
yrad's picture

Ramp failure?? I'm at a loss. I'm wandering the streets naked.

Ground control to Major Tom...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:57 | 7052114 2ndamendment
2ndamendment's picture

The one thing your 3rd chart doesn't show.... HYG has a long, long ways yet to fall. It's going to be like watching a really long, and painful, game of follow the leader. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:59 | 7052120 3rdWorldTrillionaire
3rdWorldTrillionaire's picture

Yeah -- zoom that chart out, let's really see it....

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:57 | 7052115 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

I see that 3:30 Ramp Capital entered the fray early today.

So predictable and easy, even an HFT machine can do it!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:01 | 7052128 mandalou
mandalou's picture

NQ above VWAp and using crude to fuel it. NYMEX close is a mother fucker for shorts.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:02 | 7052132 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Yeah, this happens a lot, too.

Efficient, stable, markets.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:15 | 7052189 mandalou
mandalou's picture

They are controlling the demo. Unloading their toxic assets and re positioning themselves for the downside along with accumulating real shit like gold and silver.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:05 | 7052143 sapioplex
sapioplex's picture

Here comes trillions of dark QE to the rescue...temporarily...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:04 | 7052140 Abapom
Abapom's picture

hi i am from Canada...

spare change anybody? ...please...

cauliflower u don't need , half eaten...  please send it to me...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:07 | 7052157 sapioplex
sapioplex's picture

Rent your touque?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:06 | 7052155 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Come on Japan, get us green!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:07 | 7052156 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The ramp has begun!  Time for the Fed and Treasury to throw future debt money into the fire in hopes that they will appease their god molec and he will give them another year of flat markets!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:24 | 7052248 xxxxx
xxxxx's picture

Bullard BUCKS, Bullard BUCKS, Bullard BUCKS.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:10 | 7052170 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

This bitch is going to sell hard into the close the damage is done,neg feed back lope is on.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:14 | 7052184 MountainsRoam
MountainsRoam's picture

Black Tuesday coming now, the last 30 minutes the markets tank hard..

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:20 | 7052217 xxxxx
xxxxx's picture

VIX still low looks to complacent, More selling.

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