The US Consumer Is Drowning His Sorrows At The Bar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Month after month I watch as the MSM mouthpieces try to spin declining consumer spending in a positive light. They are practically out of excuses. They are befuddled, because month after month they report “awesome” job gains and can’t understand why all these gainfully employed Americans aren’t buying shit they don’t need like they used to. These faux journalists, spouting propaganda for their ruling class bosses, are willfully ignorant of the fact the job gains are in low paying part-time jobs and the fact that Obamacare and record high rents are sapping any discretionary income households would use to buy stuff.

Despite the propaganda from the media and happy talk from the Liar-in-Chief, the country is currently in a recession and the Fed has no ammo to fake another recovery. We are going down and going down hard. When 70% of your economy is based on Americans buying shit they don’t need from China on credit cards, a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending equals recession. When sales actually fall from November to December during the holiday season, you are in recession. We’ve arrived.

The December report was a disaster and portends horrible retailer results coming down the road. More ghost malls coming to your neighborhood. The annual results were pitiful, with the more recent months even more dreadful. So after adding 10 million jobs, according to Obama, spending declines? They must be great jobs.

I think the results are even worse than portrayed in the results presented by the Census Bureau. Retail sales grew by only 2.2% in 2015 versus 2014. That is significantly less than the real inflation being experienced by real people, so on an inflation adjusted basis they fell. Even the 2.2% increase is artificially pumped up by the Fed induced auto debt fueled boom in car sales (or long-term rentals in reality). The 7 year 0% auto loans, subprime auto loans to deadbeats, and record levels of auto leases have created fake demand that will end in tears when the defaults skyrocket. If you remove these fake sales, then total retail sales are up a pitiful 0.9% over 2014.

 

When you realize that two of the few strong sales categories were autos (7.5%) and furniture stores (5.8%), you can put your thinking cap on and realize the 7 year 0% financing scam is solely responsible for these sales. Reducing credit score criteria and extending loan terms always works. Right? The other relatively strong area was internet sales (6.3%). Amazon and the rest of the on-line retail segment continues to destroy the bricks and mortar retailers, but even these sales are slowing. They were up a weak 0.3% from November. Before the states started taxing internet sales and it was still a newer concept, the annual growth rates were 15% to 20%, so the 6.3% growth rate is rather unimpressive.

 

And this leads me to the strongest spending segment – restaurants/bars. Sales were up 8.1% over 2014 and continued strong in December. I know this is true firsthand as my wife is a waitress at a restaurant/sports bar and business was booming in December and continues to be good in January. My thesis for this strong spending is that people are so miserable about the economy in general and the direction of the country (reflected in Trump’s support), they have decided to drink and eat, for tomorrow we die. Dining out or getting loaded at a bar takes your mind off your troubles for a few hours. It’s not a huge expenditure and you just put it on your credit card and worry about it later.

When the mass layoffs start hitting in 2016, even this category of spending will contract. If you think the 2015 consumer spending numbers were atrocious, you haven’t seen anything yet.

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 22:22 | 7054070 I reckon so
I reckon so's picture

I used to tease my ex-wife that "Payless Shoes" was on the phone, and they wanted to know if she was ready to sell any back to the store.  She never did laugh at that.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:33 | 7052675 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

BTW Sono U killed me there, lol

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:13 | 7052878 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Its  more like how do you americans stop your women from being total sluts abroad.

I remember at my uni in the UK the yank girls would bend over for any tool up their shute.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ashley-olsen-murder-probe...

judging from this article its got even worse with black cock frenzy even though its from some HIV, herpetic chimp.

Fucking sort it out.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:07 | 7053112 neuronius
neuronius's picture

How do you stop bitchezzzz from shopping?

 

Kick them in the cunt and take their purse.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:29 | 7053204 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Insist she earns her own money? 

I win my own bread. I don't shop for much.

You let it happen. 

To be fair, if I had my male supporting me... let's just say I am kind of shocked that women don't respect that and treat it as the gift it is. 

She does not deserve you if she is truly abusing it. On the other hand, if ya'll make a deal about her as the homemaker, she does need a real budget she can work with.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 08:03 | 7054694 hardmedicine
hardmedicine's picture

If she wants to spend money she has to earn it. It's just that simple.  And yes I'm a woman.  I cannot believe these men who don't have control of their women if the man is bringing home the money.  Totally blows my mind.  In the south down here my mama taught me either get a job or get really good at saying "yes sir'

I got a job

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:45 | 7052364 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

This is me.  I'm unemployed and my girlfriend wonders why I'm spending so much time at my bar.  I tell her, "Because I'm unemployed."

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:52 | 7052396 Nero_Hedge
Nero_Hedge's picture

My gf wonders why I'm always buying so much "junk" even though my (FRN) savings are about equal to typical underemployed millenial- negligible...I just tell her to plan and save for the things she worries about and I'll do the same- should make sure we're at least moderately prepped for either direction this ship goes

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:02 | 7052442 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

If my gf were saving for the things she worries about she would have a storage room full of shit!  

Oh wait, she does.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:08 | 7052494 Nero_Hedge
Nero_Hedge's picture

Pretty much

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:45 | 7052365 zippedydoodah
zippedydoodah's picture

Raise a toast to the Fed

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:13 | 7052531 robertsgt40
robertsgt40's picture

How about toast the fed?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:15 | 7052540 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Might as well, they already toasted us.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:45 | 7052366 kerfuffled
kerfuffled's picture

Proost

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:46 | 7052369 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Sporting goods up big. Ummmm, GUNS?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:46 | 7052370 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

got my 1.75 of Evan Williams bourbon, $22.09 plus tax -beat that, bitchez - don't taste no different mixed in diet coke

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:57 | 7052399 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I prefer Vodka myself.  But I drink the cheap stuff, mostly.  Like you, once I mix it I can't tell the difference.  I just don't have that sophisticated a palette.  I'm going to tell you the name of the Vodka and then you're gonna laugh your ass off:

 

Banker's Club

 

I shit you not.  That's actually what I drink when I'm just looking to put a buzz on.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:03 | 7052452 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Stay the fuck away from Caliber Vodka from Walmart. I swear to God it's actually paint thinner.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:12 | 7052521 Salsipuedes
Salsipuedes's picture

It´s great for tar on your tennis shoes!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:16 | 7052559 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Cleans that shit right off. It can also be used as bear repellent.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:37 | 7052687 Budd aka Sidewinder
Budd aka Sidewinder's picture

Only good for 2 things...degreasing engines and killing brain cells

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:37 | 7052694 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

<--Bears don't like Vodka.

<--Bears don't like CHEAP Vodka.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:40 | 7052711 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

I like vodka gummy bears.

http://mixthatdrink.com/vodka-gummy-bears/

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:17 | 7052569 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I've got a bankers club.  Its a two by four with a nail in it.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:03 | 7052820 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

I thought nail guns were the preferred means of dealing with bankers........ more 'hi-tech'

if you're traditional and going with the old manual method, I'd go for 16d or 20d nails and add more than one 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:05 | 7052831 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

someone released the Kracken on me  back around New Years .....

sorry if I Kracked some BitCHEZZ posts my lovely Gents & Lady ZHLoungers...

Here's to 2016 !

 

New Belgium sent out an email yesterday with their new offering :  Citradelic - Turn On, Hop Out :))

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:41 | 7052720 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

You could also get a bottle of grain alcohol and dilute with distilled water to 80 proof. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:14 | 7052885 skinwalker
skinwalker's picture

Most of my survival alcohol is exactly that. Plus, high proof grain alcohol is a poor man's anesthetic. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:47 | 7053278 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

I used to pack a bottle in my check luggade in when I would go overseas. Usually was Pearl brand triple distilled vodka. Fucking hotel bars always closed early and I was constanly getting shut out, especially in Asia. I am on the wagon now but, if I did it again I would just pack grain alcohol and cut w/ distilled water. Twice the bang for the volume! 

Never thought I would lose my taste for alcohol but, the adderal really works and I really don't crave it like I used to. Only took me 20 years to find the right doctor! That chit is magic! I can, finally, focus! That is what I stockpile now!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:48 | 7052374 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Bullshit-barry is going to be getting into some heavy lying over the next few months to gloss over things like...

 

...the US President who indebted the US more than all other US Presidents over the last 250 years combined.

 

Nice job Bullshit-barry you worthless piece of shit!!!

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 02:41 | 7054447 Bloodstock
Bloodstock's picture

At first I really like the term bullshit barry but maybe buthole barry would be good too.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:51 | 7052386 JusticeTBuford
JusticeTBuford's picture

Evan Williams Single Barrel, Altos Reposado, Crown

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:52 | 7052389 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

I'm all out of popcorn and any decent scotch...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:55 | 7052406 ToSoft4Truth
ToSoft4Truth's picture

Make your own booze out of the fermented marijuana trim.

 

Mr. Distiller

 

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:59 | 7052407 Lost in translation
Lost in translation's picture

I have a better idea.

1. Pick up a King James Bible, read the Gospel of John, followed by the Epistle of Paul to the Romans.  Romans 10:9 and 10:13 in particular.  Then, in sincerity, take a leap of faith and do what it says to do.

2. Stop drinking.  You're just pissing your money away, literally, and it isn't helping anything (and probably doing damage), so just stop.  Same goes for tobacco, drugs, and all the rest.

3. Invest in your relationships.  Parents, spouse, children, friends and loved ones.  NOT social media, get rid of that.  Turn OFF the boob-tube too (I got rid of mine).

4. Cook your own food.  Can't cook?  Use the Interwebz.  As mom used to say, "if you can read, you can cook."  While you're at it, find locally-grown food and to whatever extent you can, grow your own.

5. Maintain your fitness.  So often I find that "preppers" are somewhere between overweight and dangerously obese, it blows my mind.  By maintaining your fitness you will improve your health, feel better and lower any medical expenses.

6. Learn to be happy with less in material terms.  I used to live in Asia, in a small (by American standards) apartment.  But it was safe, clean, and more than enough.  Didn't own a car, then, either.  Saved money and reduced liability = greater peace of mind.  *Edit: please see points #1 and #3, this is where true happiness and peace are found.

7. Sell everything you don't need.  Do it now, before the muppets wake up and do the same.  Use those newfound pesos to get OUT OF DEBT.  I have friends who are in five-figures of debt with kids to support, who tell me, "oh, it's so high, I'll never get out of it."  BS.  Ancient redwoods take time to cut down, but come down they will, one axe-swing at a time by someone who persists.

I'm sure folks ehre have excellent ideas which I have not shared here, but those are my thoughts, FWIW.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:03 | 7052453 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

You are quite wise, sir. +1 on all points.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:13 | 7052874 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

Psalms 19:1  - the simple inscription on Werner Von Braun's modest grave marker.  Our Father of NASA :   "The Heavens Declare the Glory of God; and the Firmaments Showeth His Handiwork".

Headsup:  the fake Space Station had another water leak into the helmet today on a "space" walk.   Geez, guess they disregarded orders to install the snorkels that was implemented after the 2013 water leak that almost killed the water walker.

Get ready for NASA to do nothing after they got their $14 Billion approved from congress the other day for their fake MARS project.

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:36 | 7053187 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

SS Major Werner Von Braun rained a few thousand V-1 and V-2 rockets on London, killing tens of thousands of people, and then gets to start and run NASA! He worked prisoners to death in the tunnels of Peenemunde! He even gets a medals for his technical achievements and a big pension from the Federal Gov't! 

He didn't kill any Jews because most had already perished by the time Peenemunde was being developed  so he gets a free pass to the USA???

Now in retrospect we should have helped Hitler conquer the world and we wouldn't be having all these problems. We were on the wrong side!

He had the right idea! He knew the score.

Now the goyim are totally screwed. Now we are being enslaved by those he tried to destroy!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 23:53 | 7054228 FixItAgainTony
FixItAgainTony's picture

Werner made death by nuclear ICBM the final solution to all the world's ills.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 02:08 | 7054422 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

Yes! TRW developed some systems in the ICBM program for the Air Force and also developed the credit reporting agencies such as Experian which, even today, is utilized by Obama's ACA to confirm your identity before your can participate in health care coverage. It is repugnant. We need some deNAZIfication overhere. I thought we won the war?

Looking back it seems like Germany won? They came over during Operation Paperclip, set up the CIA, Interstate Highway System, Credit reporting Agencies, Water Treatment Plants and Gov't aparatus to enslave us all.

I found out when I declined to provide my phone number when applying and was refered to Experien for special treatment. Oh well, fuck that! I am going to call *67, and tell them I don't have a phone and spend a few days on the phone sorting it out.

We need to start sneaking South of the border and start taking over Mexico. They do that to us! I think we should start going down there with our retirement savings and set up in Mexico or Uraguay even better...no extridition, take over their fucking country and start over. By the time the Feds figure it out and start to build a fence to keep us in, like East Germay did, it will be to late. 

I am tired of fighting this maddness. Easier to go South and take over there.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 02:41 | 7054446 Which way to th...
Which way to the beach's picture

There was a movie about the life of Wernher von Braun "I aim for the Stars" (but sometimes i hit London Mort Shal). 
Ann-Marie MacDonald wrote a fictional account of Operation Paperclip, the program to bring German scientists to North America. A good read.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 00:00 | 7054246 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

How did Russia get the better rocketeers?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:06 | 7052473 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Sticky material esp # 5

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:12 | 7052520 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Years ago I read Voluntary Simplicity by Duane Elgin.  Helped get me on a track similar to yours.  Everything I got, since I unloaded my home, fits in my SUV.  I got five accounts in life - health ins., auto ins., credit card I pay off each month, cell, and bank/brokerage.  No utilities at all or any other monthly.  Zero debt.  I strive to eat mostly whole unprocessed foods (trying to ward off heart disease and stay off the pills), but I think a drink or two a day is good for you....

To each his own.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 18:42 | 7053237 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Here go. I'm going to look it over. I have my own ways about me but I am always interested in doing more, or should I say less...

http://www.duaneelgin.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/voluntary_simplicit...

Thanks

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:19 | 7052584 moonmac
moonmac's picture

And still possibly die young anyway? Screw that!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:42 | 7052728 techpriest
techpriest's picture

How old are you? For perspective here, I'm 30, and something you hopefully learn sooner rather than later is that the "fun" from the bottle of Fireball (like they say at my alma mater, "I drink my whiskey clear") you polish off will not be there in a few hours. The long-term results (or lack thereof) of what you did with your time, will be.

I think what Lost in Translation was also getting at, is that instead of trying to escape things that make you mad or angry, you channel the emotion into productive action. It might take months to get anywhere but barring some extreme accident, several months from now *will* be here.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 17:05 | 7052832 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Fireball is for amateurs

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:31 | 7052664 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Your killing my buzz here, Buzz Killington.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 16:33 | 7052673 spacecadet
spacecadet's picture

Why stop there. Convert to Islam and move to Saudi Arabia, 

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