US Freight Volumes Fall For First Time In 3 Years As Baltic Dry Crashes Under 400

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was just two weeks ago when we highlighted a Morgan Stanley note which showed that US trucking has not been this bad since 2009. That revelation came on the heels of an abysmal November for Class 8 sales.

Trucking, apparently, is just another casualty of slumping trade, falling commodity prices, and mediocre, double-adjusted economic “growth.”

On Friday we get the latest sign that trade is grinding to a halt. 

"Freight volumes in the United States have fallen year on year for the first time since 2012 and before that the recession of 2009," Reuters reports, citing the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. "The total volume of freight moved by road, rail, pipeline, inland waterways and air cargo in November 2015 was 1.1 percent lower than in the corresponding month a year earlier."

Here's Reuters with the laundry list of concerns:

  • Coal shipments to power producers have fallen as a result of cheaper natural gas and stricter environmental regulations.
  • Exports of manufactured products and basic commodities are down thanks to a stronger dollar which has made U.S. producers less competitive in global markets.
  • Farmers have delayed shipping some grains, especially corn and soy beans, in the hope that prices will recover in future.
  • Manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers have cut new orders as they struggle to reverse excess inventories built up as a result of over-ordering in 2014 and early 2015.
  • Freight shipments related to oil, gas and mining have tumbled as the plunge in commodity prices forces a widespread slowdown in drilling and quarrying.

Meanwhile, on the high seas:

Quick central planners, someone figure out how to print trade...

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Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:33 | 7050650 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Tim Geithner to redefine how BDI is calculated in 3, 2, 1.......

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:37 | 7050671 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

MOAR seasonal adjustments for all!!!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:39 | 7050676 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

All the shipping indices, priced in USD, are in the tank, as the USD is so strong.

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.csv

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:41 | 7050696 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Everything is fine.  Let's all go buy stocks.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:45 | 7050718 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:51 | 7050750 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

So when does Obama devalue the dollar to gold a la FDR?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:02 | 7050805 thesonandheir
thesonandheir's picture

O'Barmer has to steal it first.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:51 | 7051242 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Boris is be cold sound like Keynesian winter storm on way.

Hehe Scooby!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:26 | 7050961 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Exactly.  That has been my gut feel about this entire move in the USD..... that it is purposeful with the intent on devaluing the USD to inflate away some of the debt.

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:26 | 7051522 TheDanimal
TheDanimal's picture

Pretty sure that's our job now.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:54 | 7050769 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Surprised they have not squashed this like M3.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:38 | 7050678 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"Anyone who questions this robust recovery is peddling fiction."
-Some politician or other

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:18 | 7050897 Muse minus Time
Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:55 | 7053566 warpigs
warpigs's picture

Only a cunt of the highest magnitude would stand at the most visible and powerful podium on the planet and dispense with such verbal diarrhea. Governments, by their very mandate, can never tell the truth to the public when the markets are about to fail, or are failing. Speaking as the average father, husband, and guy who goes out each day to take his cuts, there's not a ton I can do to soften the blows of what is coming. If we are first headed into deflation, my main goal is to slay all debts. The exact opposite would be called for if inflation was the coming event. Savings as much cash is the next goal. Beyond that, I'm not really sure how to stave off what is coming. Anyone not totally droned out on TV sees the massive storm clouds marching in. Oh well...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:39 | 7050680 Newbie lurker
Newbie lurker's picture

They will rename it the Baltic Wet Index and say there has been some confusion about what roll water plays in this. Then simply repeg it at 1250.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:33 | 7050651 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Long Whales and Sea-Turtles

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:34 | 7050658 Newbie lurker
Newbie lurker's picture

Its because freedom isn't free!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:35 | 7050663 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

This kind of data the Fed were probably seeing in real time a few months ago.  No wonder Mr. Yellin dropped a deuce in her pants when she was giving that speech also a few months ago knowing she had no choice but to raise rates.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:35 | 7050664 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

You can't sell it if nobody is buying, and it's going to get a lot worse quickly........

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:36 | 7050667 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Pretty soon we will have negative shipping rates to go along with negative interest rates.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:37 | 7050672 two hoots
two hoots's picture

Underneath it all, fundamentals still matter.  The world is full of so much hype and BS but truths and reality will eventually surface like a sleeping volcano and awaken us all.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:38 | 7050677 Proaurum
Proaurum's picture

Wow! Even lower than the lows seen in 2008

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:39 | 7050684 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When real goods and services stop crossing borders, troops will.

same as it ever was!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:43 | 7050705 o r c k
o r c k's picture

Again, If we could just "Restore Democracy to Syria" all will be well.  (Jeb wouldn't lie would he?)

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:41 | 7050695 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

LOL bdi, no , get with it, it is now the DDI..drone dry index, still shipping by well ships, thats so last century..amazon drones have taken the volume..oh wait.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:44 | 7050711 youngman
youngman's picture

When you stop trading raw materials..that means the end materials are not going to be made by all of those employees who used to make them....sorry...but does not a healthy market make

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:51 | 7050748 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Look at gold just sitting there holding it's value while the dollar rallies and everything else is deflating. Only stupid people put any faith in that barbaric relic. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 15:07 | 7051826 boiow
boiow's picture

Gold Bitchez... ...  sorry i couldn't help myself

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:52 | 7050759 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Pink slip Fridays at Twatter, AAPL & the FANG's, or it ain't real...

 

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:54 | 7050767 Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

Well whadya expect?  Walmart closing hundreds of stores http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-walmart-closing-stores-20160115-st...

Means less salad shooters and less stoopid star wars crap will be filling boats bound for Arkansas.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 12:57 | 7050782 grunk
grunk's picture

Becky Quick, Uncle Warren needs a sponge bath!

He just shit himself.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:07 | 7050832 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't worry, the problem is just too many trucks.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:17 | 7050885 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

.......he hates these cans.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 13:52 | 7051250 creeko
creeko's picture

Hahaha... great reference!

 

here's the link for your friday humor... if today's dow plunge isn't enough.  :D

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 14:12 | 7051425 Hyper Entropy
Hyper Entropy's picture

Somalli pirates hit hardest. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!