Why Donald Trump Is Praying For A Market Crash

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to Trump's relentless surge in the polls, one thing is certain: the so-called "pundits", biased from day one, were, are, and will continue to be completely wrong. But as the day approaches when Trump appears set to win the GOP presidential nomination and face off against Hillary, who should one listen to? Well, according to InvesTech's James Stack, with a track record of 86.4%, the market may be an almost flawless arbiter of the election outcome long before November.

Here's why:

Does the stock market affect or predict the election outcome?

 

The old saying that “people vote their pocketbooks” is more accurate than the average political analyst thinks. While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, perhaps Presidential candidates should worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes.

 

Historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

 

There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!

 

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election. Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Here the reflexive question emerges: does the market predict the election outcome, or does the move in the market - whether by design or by chance - predetermine the election outcome?

Now if only Donald Trump, or his backers for whatever reasons they may have, could orchestrate a market crash...

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the6thBook's picture

They are already trying to spin it on marketwatch as the market "afraid" of Trump's tarrifs.  

 

Mr Pink's picture

I'm 87% sure the incumbent isn't winning this year

CHoward's picture

I'm 100% sure he won't be winning any election this year but I'm not so sure the SOB won't do something to extend his "stay" beyond Jan 20, 2017. 

daveO's picture

He said, ''Joe don't waste your time and money running for the office. We're going to fix it so you can just waltz right in''.

zhandax's picture

I don't suppose he is planning to eat bad oysters?

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) Mr Pink Jan 16, 2016 12:19 PM

Just like I'm 93% sure the U.S. stock market won't crash on Monday.

Vendetta's picture

I'm 100% sure he will be winning when he gets out of office to go collect his interminable $250k a pop speeches for his payola favors-paid-in-full debt collection rounds like the last 4 presidents have done.

RiverRoad's picture

"It's the economy, stupid." 

       Slick Willy Clinton

 

Trump gets elected.

Felix da Kat's picture

Trump needs no such prayer.

Soul Glow's picture

I'm writing in Tyler Durden.

Ness.'s picture

I'm writing in Deez Nuts.

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Ness. Jan 16, 2016 5:36 AM

I'm writing in Long Soup Line (I'm standing in one too)

stant's picture

Trumps Gona win

Shad_ow's picture

...and we are all gonna lose.

corporatewhore's picture

has anyone else fouond jeb! to be the most annoying bitchy candidate currently running?  He just can't get over the fact that he was supposed to be the nominee and not have any challengers.  the lindsay graham endorsement was a joke.

Baron Munchausen's picture

stack doesnt understand causality or research methods but in any event Hillary is unbeatable barring her arrest, which, of course, should have already happened.

But Donald will still need to bend the knee to Israel and look somber before the ruins of that roman fortress popularly misconstrued as a Hebrew temple that simply never existed where that wall stands. And which was built and rebuilt at least 5 times. But I digress.

trump v hillary debate would be rivetting shit, thats for sure.

Kayman's picture

"May 2015,  the Clinton Foundation acknowledged that an affiliated Canadian charity founded in 2007 by Frank Giustra kept its donors secret, despite a 2008 ethics agreement with the Obama administration promising to reveal the New York-based foundation’s donors.

The foundation said the arrangement conformed with Canadian law. But it also opened a way for anonymous donors, including foreign executives with business pending before the Hillary Clinton-led State Department, to direct money to the Clinton Foundation."

The charity, the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership (a Canadian registered charity), with 100% anonymous donors (all foreign) hasn't spent one red cent on charity in Canada, but funnels 100% of "donations" to the Clinton Foundation.

Baron- you must have bad cold, you can't smell the shit.

 

Aquarius's picture

"Now if only Donald Trump, or his backers for whatever reasons they may have, could orchestrate a market crash..."

 

No need. It has already been arranged thank you.

Ho hum

daveO's picture

Bill Cosby indicted just as the statute of limitations were running out. check!

MSM running articles comparing BC (osby) to BC (linton). check! 

MSM continuously dropping hints that the FBI is ''this close!'' to taking down Hildabeast. check!

And, for the most important part, the FED raises rates 7 years to the week after they first bottomed them near zero. Hell Yea!

 

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Every 7 years, like clockwork!

cleverusername's picture

they would never, that would be underhanded

magnumpk's picture

It won't be Hillary.  She's toast.

Freddie's picture

Some wag over at the Daily Mail posted something about Hillary in a story about the Clintons distancing themselves from Chelsea's comments. 

The wag said that Hildabeast is as popular as Caligula.  LOL!

Fullthrottle's picture

Hopefully she gets Indicted. Then Convicted. 

not dead yet's picture

Why executed. Just make her sentence lifetime solitary confinement and pipe in heavy metal 24/7.

greenskeeper carl's picture

it would make me happy to see her and the rest of them live out their days as ship breakers in Alang, India

Eyeroller's picture

Hopefully she gets Indicted. Then Convicted.

If she only gets indicted before the election, it will help her.

She will play the victim card, and those in the FBI who indicted her will be singled out as racist, sexist, republicans with an axe to grind al a Ken Starr. 

Bank_sters's picture

Apart from all of her other negatives - too many to detail, she is a supremely abrasive/ shrill person. People just don't like her on a visceral level. Her scandals support this gut reaction. Personally, I'd like to see Hillpig go to jail. Her suffering would make me.... Gleeful.

I fucking hate most of our career politicians, I really do.

willwork4food's picture

Career politicians=career .gov appointments /Business deal hirings= parasites.

I have more respect for the black gang bangers in Chicago selling product & living off the .gov gives them.

cleverusername's picture

it feels like there are other folks in the backgroud, like some kind of billionaire businessman club pushing team cia out of power

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

There are almost no Kennedys left.

philosophers bone's picture

Something very key might be happening. MSM ignoring Paul and Sanders, yet they may both win Iowa?

From there, who knows. Both are heavyweight thinkers, more principled than establishment opponents and inspiring.

This is the establishment's worst nightmare despite best efforts to marginalize them.

Freddie's picture

If people's 401-Ks are up they will love Obola or Bill Clinton.  Not that any of ot matters - Clintons/Bushes/Obola = all the same puppets.

CHoward's picture

Trump is certaintly NOT praying for a market crash.  Let things continue just as they are and he'll do just fine. 

Haole's picture

...lost alright.

bugs_'s picture

Trump prays.  Film at 11.

ihatebarkingdogs's picture

Two out of the three Red Checks (500 was up, but incumbent party lost) are for 1968 and 1980. The 500 had nothing to do with those years. The previous incumbent sucked. Kind of like the 2016 election.

DOGGONE's picture

Look at this immediately, it's the inflation-adjusted Dow thru today.

http://www.showrealhist.com/recDJIAtoRD.html

damicol's picture

This IS the market crash.
Anyone thinks that this is going to stop or ave anything other than a few desperate algo driven dead cat bounces is dreaming.
Th S&P will not see new highs for at least 6 years and it will still be looking for a bottom in 18 to 24 months from now as it gets well under !,000

Zoomorph's picture

I don't think Trump wants a market crash, but it's probably going to happen anyways and that's why he's so popular.

One And Only's picture

Donald Trump crashed the stock market. Vote Sanders.

Golden Phoenix's picture

TRUMP SEES WHAT YOU DID THERE.

 

 

One And Only's picture

Free things for everyone is good things.

just the tip's picture

a crash on hussein's watch will not be allowed.  the magic negro has done his job and will be protected.

if i am wrong and the economy does tnak, it will be spun as the result of investors fears of what trump will do.

if trump is elected, 21jan2017 will be forever be known as the day we came down and came down hard.

 

daveO's picture

He's a lame d(f)uck, they no longer need him. The FED raised rates 7 years to the week of when they bottomed them out. They drove rates to zero in 2009 and then pumped QE to keep their puppet in office. Now, they can crash it and that will, most likely, help the next puppet. Do you remember where oil prices were in the summer of '08. I was saying, at the time, that those prices were being rigged higher in order to install Hussein. The MSM was using it as fodder to attack Bush's Iraq decision. When the markets tank, the MSM will blame everyone but the FED, just like Biden or Sanders would do. Whoever would blame the FED will be targeted.