Why Donald Trump Is Praying For A Market Crash

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When it comes to Trump's relentless surge in the polls, one thing is certain: the so-called "pundits", biased from day one, were, are, and will continue to be completely wrong. But as the day approaches when Trump appears set to win the GOP presidential nomination and face off against Hillary, who should one listen to? Well, according to InvesTech's James Stack, with a track record of 86.4%, the market may be an almost flawless arbiter of the election outcome long before November.

Here's why:

Does the stock market affect or predict the election outcome?

 

The old saying that “people vote their pocketbooks” is more accurate than the average political analyst thinks. While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, perhaps Presidential candidates should worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes.

 

Historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

 

There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!

 

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election. Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Here the reflexive question emerges: does the market predict the election outcome, or does the move in the market - whether by design or by chance - predetermine the election outcome?

Now if only Donald Trump, or his backers for whatever reasons they may have, could orchestrate a market crash...

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Sat, 01/16/2016 - 12:28 | 7055295 The Saint
The Saint's picture

Shoot them out of cannons over the wall.  We'll need some rocket engines or Navy rail guns to dispatch the Muslims back to the Middle East.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 09:16 | 7054823 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

because that will fix everything, right? Once those mexicans are gone, everything else will work itself out?

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 19:19 | 7056441 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

" I hope we get to wear brown shirts."

You would risk getting mistaken for one of 'em?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:37 | 7053741 Baron Munchausen
Baron Munchausen's picture

stack doesnt understand causality or research methods but in any event Hillary is unbeatable barring her arrest, which, of course, should have already happened.

But Donald will still need to bend the knee to Israel and look somber before the ruins of that roman fortress popularly misconstrued as a Hebrew temple that simply never existed where that wall stands. And which was built and rebuilt at least 5 times. But I digress.

trump v hillary debate would be rivetting shit, thats for sure.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 14:33 | 7055651 Kayman
Kayman's picture

"May 2015,  the Clinton Foundation acknowledged that an affiliated Canadian charity founded in 2007 by Frank Giustra kept its donors secret, despite a 2008 ethics agreement with the Obama administration promising to reveal the New York-based foundation’s donors.

The foundation said the arrangement conformed with Canadian law. But it also opened a way for anonymous donors, including foreign executives with business pending before the Hillary Clinton-led State Department, to direct money to the Clinton Foundation."

The charity, the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership (a Canadian registered charity), with 100% anonymous donors (all foreign) hasn't spent one red cent on charity in Canada, but funnels 100% of "donations" to the Clinton Foundation.

Baron- you must have bad cold, you can't smell the shit.

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:37 | 7053742 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

"Now if only Donald Trump, or his backers for whatever reasons they may have, could orchestrate a market crash..."

 

No need. It has already been arranged thank you.

Ho hum

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 00:27 | 7054301 daveO
daveO's picture

Bill Cosby indicted just as the statute of limitations were running out. check!

MSM running articles comparing BC (osby) to BC (linton). check! 

MSM continuously dropping hints that the FBI is ''this close!'' to taking down Hildabeast. check!

And, for the most important part, the FED raises rates 7 years to the week after they first bottomed them near zero. Hell Yea!

 

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 08:30 | 7054729 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Every 7 years, like clockwork!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:37 | 7053746 cleverusername
cleverusername's picture

they would never, that would be underhanded

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:38 | 7053751 magnumpk
magnumpk's picture

It won't be Hillary.  She's toast.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:49 | 7053802 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Some wag over at the Daily Mail posted something about Hillary in a story about the Clintons distancing themselves from Chelsea's comments. 

The wag said that Hildabeast is as popular as Caligula.  LOL!

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:03 | 7053853 Fullthrottle
Fullthrottle's picture

Hopefully she gets Indicted. Then Convicted. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:14 | 7053894 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Then, Executed. :-)

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 04:53 | 7054528 not dead yet
not dead yet's picture

Why executed. Just make her sentence lifetime solitary confinement and pipe in heavy metal 24/7.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 09:23 | 7054839 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

it would make me happy to see her and the rest of them live out their days as ship breakers in Alang, India

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 07:55 | 7054687 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Hopefully she gets Indicted. Then Convicted.

If she only gets indicted before the election, it will help her.

She will play the victim card, and those in the FBI who indicted her will be singled out as racist, sexist, republicans with an axe to grind al a Ken Starr. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:15 | 7053898 Bank_sters
Bank_sters's picture

Apart from all of her other negatives - too many to detail, she is a supremely abrasive/ shrill person. People just don't like her on a visceral level. Her scandals support this gut reaction. Personally, I'd like to see Hillpig go to jail. Her suffering would make me.... Gleeful.

I fucking hate most of our career politicians, I really do.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:51 | 7054001 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Career politicians=career .gov appointments /Business deal hirings= parasites.

I have more respect for the black gang bangers in Chicago selling product & living off the .gov gives them.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:39 | 7053753 cleverusername
cleverusername's picture

it feels like there are other folks in the backgroud, like some kind of billionaire businessman club pushing team cia out of power

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:49 | 7053804 Thick Willy
Thick Willy's picture

"Team CIA."  Must be fun to have these fantasies since you don't know who is actually in the CIA.

How about you check the visible apparatus of the USA, like the state department.  100% run by Jews.  Check our ambassadors, mostly Jews.  Check who Obama appointed to the DOJ - racist black communists.

Yet you want to blame some nefarious neo-con cabal of evangelical white Christians.  Funny.

You're like Alex Jones, blaming the lizard people, "globalists", the illuminati and anyone else he can think up other than the obvious 6,000,000 pound kosher gorilla in the room.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 01:14 | 7054366 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

I think you're in the CIA. In fact I think you are so CIA you don't even know you're in the CIA just like most of the other people in the CIA.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 08:35 | 7054736 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

There are almost no Kennedys left.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:01 | 7053759 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

Something very key might be happening. MSM ignoring Paul and Sanders, yet they may both win Iowa?

From there, who knows. Both are heavyweight thinkers, more principled than establishment opponents and inspiring.

This is the establishment's worst nightmare despite best efforts to marginalize them.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:45 | 7053780 Freddie
Freddie's picture

If people's 401-Ks are up they will love Obola or Bill Clinton.  Not that any of ot matters - Clintons/Bushes/Obola = all the same puppets.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:47 | 7053781 Thick Willy
Thick Willy's picture

Trump wins regardless.  Better get used to saying "President Trump."  You can't stump the Trump, so don't even bother trying.

When was the last time America had a president that wasn't 100% compromised by Zionism and Jews?  Before Woodrow Wilson, I think.  And maybe Kennedy, and we know how that went.  Trump may be legit, let's give him a chance.  Either way he loves America for what it is and what it was while the Democrats/Leftists hate America and its history.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:05 | 7053857 __Usury__
__Usury__'s picture

Bernie Sanders is a jew and if elected,  will attempt to create more debt than any other candidate currently running..which makes him the  perfect bankster/aipac candidate (banksters peddle debt) ...........in a debt as money system such as we operate in, the debt must grow and Bernie is the man to get that done...

WALL ST WANTS BERNIE

 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 22:06 | 7054030 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

Except they want to blame it on capitalisms.  We clearly dont have a free market economy but Bernie's problem is that he openly says he wants socialism.  They cant soil the name when they could hang it all on a capitalist boogie man.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 02:03 | 7054412 zhandax
zhandax's picture

"Either way he loves America for what it is"

There is your problem.  Trump loves America cause it is a place where the rich can get richer.  Daddy 'loaning' you a $mil to get your dick wet in real estate is not exactly a rags to riches story.  Keep on humpin' that fantasy that Trump is for the common man.  Nice to see his PR guys are making their money the old fashioned way; one lie at a time.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 07:10 | 7054649 Thick Willy
Thick Willy's picture

Democracy is not a real thing and is, in fact, hugely detrimental to white interests.  What has democracy brought us? Minority rights, minority rule.  Everyone has to tip toe around blacks, gays, jews, mexicans, indians, moslems, etc. while the white Christian men that built the fucking country are relegated to 2nd class citizen status.  The supreme court is full of jews and catholics.  Where are the white male protestants on the supreme court?

I am done with democracy as a concept.  We need a return of white Christian kings, not just in America, but in Europe as well.  And yes, the king is always absurdly rich and has little in common with the average man.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:46 | 7053790 CHoward
CHoward's picture

Trump is certaintly NOT praying for a market crash.  Let things continue just as they are and he'll do just fine. 

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:47 | 7053791 Haole
Haole's picture

...lost alright.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:47 | 7053792 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Trump prays.  Film at 11.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:52 | 7053813 Thick Willy
Thick Willy's picture

Obama is a half Jewish half black racist communist atheist.  He has loyalty to Islam but only because Muslims kill white people, Obama's number 1 enemy.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:52 | 7053814 ihatebarkingdogs
ihatebarkingdogs's picture

Two out of the three Red Checks (500 was up, but incumbent party lost) are for 1968 and 1980. The 500 had nothing to do with those years. The previous incumbent sucked. Kind of like the 2016 election.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 20:55 | 7053826 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

Look at this immediately, it's the inflation-adjusted Dow thru today.

http://www.showrealhist.com/recDJIAtoRD.html

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:07 | 7053867 damicol
damicol's picture

This IS the market crash.
Anyone thinks that this is going to stop or ave anything other than a few desperate algo driven dead cat bounces is dreaming.
Th S&P will not see new highs for at least 6 years and it will still be looking for a bottom in 18 to 24 months from now as it gets well under !,000

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:21 | 7053907 Zoomorph
Zoomorph's picture

I don't think Trump wants a market crash, but it's probably going to happen anyways and that's why he's so popular.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:22 | 7053912 One And Only
One And Only's picture

Donald Trump crashed the stock market. Vote Sanders.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 23:55 | 7054237 Golden Phoenix
Golden Phoenix's picture

TRUMP SEES WHAT YOU DID THERE.

 

 

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 00:59 | 7054348 One And Only
One And Only's picture

Free things for everyone is good things.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:27 | 7053927 just the tip
just the tip's picture

a crash on hussein's watch will not be allowed.  the magic negro has done his job and will be protected.

if i am wrong and the economy does tnak, it will be spun as the result of investors fears of what trump will do.

if trump is elected, 21jan2017 will be forever be known as the day we came down and came down hard.

 

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 00:46 | 7054327 daveO
daveO's picture

He's a lame d(f)uck, they no longer need him. The FED raised rates 7 years to the week of when they bottomed them out. They drove rates to zero in 2009 and then pumped QE to keep their puppet in office. Now, they can crash it and that will, most likely, help the next puppet. Do you remember where oil prices were in the summer of '08. I was saying, at the time, that those prices were being rigged higher in order to install Hussein. The MSM was using it as fodder to attack Bush's Iraq decision. When the markets tank, the MSM will blame everyone but the FED, just like Biden or Sanders would do. Whoever would blame the FED will be targeted.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 08:53 | 7054773 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Since "the magic negro has done his job" he will be discarded like a used rubber!

"Dead men tell no tales"

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 09:19 | 7054829 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

Really?

I predict the nigger will be the next UN Secretary-General

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:27 | 7053930 redc1c4
redc1c4's picture

why would he have to pray for what is already occurring?

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:40 | 7053956 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Seemingly just about everyone thinks we'll get out of this in some semblance of alive-and-well, as long as we choose wisely a new "leader," while ignoring a thoroughly corrupt and defunct Congress.

Ah... there's the enabling ignorance you were looking for, but couldn't quite put your finger on.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 00:02 | 7054251 Golden Phoenix
Golden Phoenix's picture

Think deeper. It's not Congress, it's the CIA and NSA. Think Kennedy.

Sat, 01/16/2016 - 05:25 | 7054549 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

there are levels of power so far above Obama, that they cannot be comprehended...

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:35 | 7053959 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

So far, Trump is the ONLY one speaking common sense to me.

Fri, 01/15/2016 - 21:38 | 7053970 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I'm praying that people will finally recognize the phony government scam economy that the Obama administration has been running since he's been in office.

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