Why Donald Trump Is Praying For A Market Crash
When it comes to Trump's relentless surge in the polls, one thing is certain: the so-called "pundits", biased from day one, were, are, and will continue to be completely wrong. But as the day approaches when Trump appears set to win the GOP presidential nomination and face off against Hillary, who should one listen to? Well, according to InvesTech's James Stack, with a track record of 86.4%, the market may be an almost flawless arbiter of the election outcome long before November.
Here's why:
Does the stock market affect or predict the election outcome?
The old saying that “people vote their pocketbooks” is more accurate than the average political analyst thinks. While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, perhaps Presidential candidates should worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes.
Historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.
There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!
This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election. Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.
Here the reflexive question emerges: does the market predict the election outcome, or does the move in the market - whether by design or by chance - predetermine the election outcome?
Now if only Donald Trump, or his backers for whatever reasons they may have, could orchestrate a market crash...
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As long as the sheeple's 401Ks are doing well, they will believe the smoke and mirrors of the Feral Reserve.
This is why the "markets" must be propped up at all costs until safely after the election.
That's what I've been saying. Also,, Trump's odds will increase with every Islamic terrorist attack or sexual assault incident that occurs in the west between now and the election.
No matter what I'm long Brawndo......
So does the Obamas ransack the Whitehouse like the Clintons did when they left.
Liberals want to make sure nothing is left behind.
Liberals and conservatives in Washington have destroyed America. As long as there is this perception that they're 2 different teams, the nation will continue to deteriorate.
Disagree 100%. Polar opposites. The two parties are the same, but remember, the Rethugs hate their base - conservatives. The red&blue party is liberal; conservatives have no real party.
I'm hoping "the Donald" has more on his mind other than these statistics last Wednesday night from the POTUS delivering his last SOTU as he was thoughtfully washing the "yellow/brown" from his $300.00 Egyptian pima cotton briefs after what he had just witnessed!...
Demagogues thrives on suffering, ignorance and fear. It's always been like that.
Trump is right. Tariffs work. Just ask China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea who slap huge tariffs on US made goods. Why can't we tax their stuff and level the playing field????
Because, with wages not rising and multinational conglomerates who finance every politician says NO. A lot of folks think the president is some powerful figure who will put America first. Just look at previous elections since JFK and tell me if which president put America 1st.
RR tried but he didn't make it past two months or so, after that GHWB was the president.
See this:
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_bush19.htm
Trump has a substantial real estate portfolio that requires good times and a functioning civilization. Course he does NOT want a market crash. But if it happens, he will be the only guy who can restructure and rebuild America.
None of his pervious bankrupcies seem to have harmed him.
I still say Trump doesn't make it to the finish line (most likely by choice).
Who wants all the headaches?
Come on ZH - be better than that. This article reveals such drastic innumeracy that it's irresponsible to give it exposure.
With a sample size of 22 (and 22 drawings of the random variable), the binomial formula gives you the standard error of the sample mean as 0.5 if the true mean is 50%, and 0.34 if the true mean is 19/22.
19/22 is not significantly different from 11/22 at a 2.5% significance level - in fact, under the null (that the true mean is 1/2) both 22/22 and 0/22 are statistically not different from 11/22 (that is, the probability that a sample with 0 or 22 matches will be obtained from an arbitrary drawing from the distribution if the null is true, is very high).
This is why people who aren't retards ignore any statistical claims that arise from samples smaller than about 50 (even the 'standard' central limit theorem requires N > 30).
You insult your readership by giving space to the type of trash that has literally zero informational validity (apart from showing the that author of the piece would fail a first year undergraduate statistics/econometrics class).
"Sub-Zero... now... plain Zero"
"Air Force One... now... Gefilte Fish One"
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FSZ25ikUKVY
I don't trust anyone who boasts of having a of the answers.
No one has all the answers, NO DEMOCRAT, NO REPUBLICAN. How the HELL could politics lead someone to all the right answers???? Politics is stupidity on steroids!!! Thats why I’m Independent. I’m spiritual, but not religious because since I was young I knew I wasn’t smart enough to pick the "right" religion? Who is going to tell you which one is the "right" one? How do you know for sure? I believe in a power higher than myself, but would never be foolish enough to think I was "Smart" enough to tell you what it is. There seems to be lots of "smart" people these days? Given the state of education I don’t see how that could possibly be true... People BUY their educations these days. Nothing SMART about that!
I dont take any Man's word for ANYTHING!
Get rid of all the corruption is the only answer but the CIA, NSA and Dept of fatherland security won't allow it.
What if the economy takes a nose dive before the elections and there are mass layoffs and businesses closing? I am sure people will vote the Democratic candidate because they know their welfare cheques will be fatter and for longer under a Democrat than a Republican.
I read somewhere once that everywhere around the world after the crash of the 30's those in charge were blamed. Liberals governments were tossed for conservative. Conservatives were tossed for liberals. Whoever is running things when SHTF will be tossed. My guess is the Democrats get tossed...this thing is coming to a head before November.
as it is now, it was then ... the same corrupt international banking cabal caused the problems and the same type of kowtowing politicians enabled it.... it is irrelavant which 'party' was in power because they both play the same game and for personal gain rather than national interest and preservation. Iceland seems to be the only country to tell the bankers to fuck off and die.
Oldie but goodie:
<http://liberty-tree.ca/research/Billions.for.the.Bankers
Me too. That is exactly what I have been planning for. Bring it on
What if...Soros has kidnapped the real Donald and supplanted him with a programmed clone who answers only to him like Bath House?
Me no want Trumpster to be POTUS
Whatever...... Valerie Jarrett will continue to be POTUS until 2025 and Yellen VPOTUS until at least Dow 25,000. So settle in. People will be trading gold for toilet paper, ammo, and vodka pretty soon. Oh and all that digital fiat money that dissappeared in the 20 Trillion black hole, you are responsible for it....have a great summer!
OK Mr. 10 weeks in....
Troll much?
The really good thing about Trump is that he has no ideals morals political agenda religion etc. He is just a manager who likes power and admiration. Think about it, isn't that what we need? All the idealogues in the owrld couldn't fix the drain in their sink let alone the country. The rest of the world is an amoral chaotic mess so there is only the powerful and the dead. I'd rather be powerful.
I would disagree with some of the stuff on your list. I do believe he cares about the USA. Not because of anything he said recently. Way back when NAFTA was going through its implementation, I clearly remember how much Trump was agitated by how much the USA was going to get ripped off, and that the USA was for sale by its politicians. I don't think he was grandstanding or making that up. You could see it in his face. Trump is "the deal" man, and he knew the US was getting a bad deal.
A big crash may be good for Trump winning the election...but he'll lose his shirt on real estate. Can a president declare bankruptcy?
but he'll lose his shirt on real estate
That could have been one of his incentives.
Can a president declare bankruptcy?
No. But his kids can. I would be watching for a President Trump's appointments on real estate matters.
I am just cynical enough to believe that.
I think Trump is already getting his market crash as I look out the window. And things have sucked for seven years anyway and people know it. Watch the other Republican candidates when they debate. They are nothing but copycats now, blowing with the wind behind Trump's coattails. They have no character or convictions of their own. They change their approach and ideas every couple of weeks to try to make something stick. They've been poisoned in the mind by living in the political wonderland of the beltway too long to have an original thought or to come up with any way to connect to the people of the country.
THIS WILL MAKE YOU THROW UP IN YOUR MOUTH.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaDQ1vIuvZI
<---a warm sack of jiggling vomit
<----Cankles Cuntarly Clinton
That is what I have said for a while now, the Oligarchs rarely, and I say rarely have someone that is NOT their canditate elected, the last time was in 1960, and that president did not survive his term.
The Oligarchs have two legs:
1) The Republican party whose main mission is to DECREASE THE FREEDOM of the people of the world though wars of agression and expand american hegemony.
2) The Democrat party whose main mission is to DECREASDE THE LIBERTIES of the people of the united states and increase their dependence through government programs and regulations.
The problem is that Trump is not one of their candidates, they have done everything in their power to deraile him and nothing seems to be working, if he wins the nomination, then Hillery HAVE to win the final election, acording to them. And therefore the market must be maintained until next year. And I do belive that they have enogh manipulative power to make it going until that time.
They need Hillery to disarm the American population to prevent an uprising. If Obama tries to do so while still in office then we know they are really getting desperate, and the whole election might be postponed indefinatly due to the outbreak of CIVIL WAR.
Why does the White Upper Class Elite fear Donald Trump?
http://powerthroughdiscipline.com/2016/01/15/upper-class-white-elites/
Trump 2016!!!
All Trump supporters visit: www.ptdradio.com
www.powerthroughdiscipline.com
This article assumes that the stock market average reflects the performance of the economy as a whole. However, we ALL KNOW that since at least 2001, gains on Wall Street have not been reflected on Main Street. We also know that the plutocrats of Wall Street are THE most significant contributors to political campaigns, and that they fund those from whom they expect to gain. Except that they also fund those whom they most expect to win, so that they will always have a hold on and direct access to the winner.
Putting this altogether, and being aware that the populace is more aware today than at any time in history of the utter corruption of our political system, the question is not simply going to be, "How is the stock market doing?". The QUESTIONS ARE going to be:
"Is the average voter doing better in November than they were eight years ago?"
"Are the people who buy elections doing better with the incumbents than they were with the Opposition?"
"Are the average voters going to let themselves be bought off by Wall Street and believe what they're told by the media establishment and paid advertising, or are they really going to vote their own pocketbooks this time around?"
HOPE AND CHANGE may be the call If there is a crash before the election, maybe a “we can do better”.
However, the title of the story should have been
DEMOCRATS HOPE TRUMP ELECTED IF MARKETS CRASH
IF Donald Trump becomes President, he will either:
1.) betray the people; or
2.) be shot by a "lone gunman" like JFK and Ronald Reagan (who did NOT want George Bush for his VP)
I was a medical resident in surgery when Reagan was shot; and my senior resident was DAVID GENSs, the doctor who actually operated on Reagan (whose heart actually stopped twice during surgery). I was NOT present during that surgery, but Dave told me and some other residdents immediately afterwqards that TWO bullets hit Reagan, BUT they were of different caibers!!! (Dave and I were ardent pistol shooters and hunters in Virginia. He said he recognized the difference instantly, but aid nothing to anyone else in the room, since Secret Service and FBI agents were in the surgical suite during the operation.)
So WHO shot Reagan with the second gun?????
This is the absolute truth. The FBI confiscated the bullets and told him NEVER to speak a word about it. Ever!!! Look it up on the Internet for yourself. Dr. David Gens, a general surgeon at George Washington Univerity Medical Center in Washington, D.C. (He told only a few of us. I have no idea where Dave is now, since I moved to Massachusetts after completing my residency.)
LOOK him up on the Internet, along with Reagan's surgeon. Or simply contact the GW medical center. By law, they must keep ALL such records forever - even the names of nurses present during a surgery.)
David was the Chief resideent (5th year). I was a second-year surgical resident. Two years ahead of me was my closest friend at that time, Dr. William Price, under whom I worked directly and reported to. Bill Price's FATHER at that time was a U.S. CONGRESSMAN (as I recall, from Illinois). Bill Price and I lived about a mile from each other in Virginia, so we often rode to work together. I met his father once, when Bill and I were rebuilding a stone walkway down to the lake adjacent to his father's home. (I had worked in construction during summers while in high school and college; and I done such work before. (My aunt was the VP of the company!)
LOOK it up fot YOURSELF. Then try telling people that what I have written is NOT the truth.
Market Crash?, You are served...
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/01/15/apple_irish_apple/
Revenge with German precision!
Hot dog 13.6% GDP and that is probably more with honest numbers! Today we can barely pull 2% with dishonest numbers.