Recession At The Gate: JPM Cuts Q4 GDP From 1.0% To 0.1%
We already noted the cycle-low Q4 GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed, which in a release which came out just as the crashing US equity market closed revised the last quarter GDP to just 0.6%, which delay however according to the same Atlanta Fed was due to "nothing more nefarious than technical difficulties."
Curiously, JPM had no problems with the 15 second exercise of plugging in raw data into the GDP "beancount" model. And, according to chief economist Michael Feroli, in the 4th quarter, the same quarter in which Yellen finally felt confident enough to declare the US economy strong enough to withstand a rate hike and a tightening cycle, US growth ground to a halt and as a result JPMorgan just cut its Q4 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 0.1%, which would suggest in 2015 US GDP grew 2.3%, down from 2.4% in 2014.
If JPM is right, and if the US economy effectively did not grow in the fourth quarter, this would make it the worst GDP print since Q1 of 2014, and tied for the third worst quarter since 2009, which incidentally was our kneejerk assessment after yesterday's latest round of abysmal economic data.
Another downward revision to GDP: Yellen may have raised rates in a negative GDP quarter
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 15, 2016
The cherry on top: JPM also cut its Q1 2016 GDP forecast from 2.25% to 2.00%. Expect many more downward revisions to forward GDP in the coming weeks.
Below is a chart of what US GDP looks like if JPM's forecast proves to be accurate:
Here is JPM explaining why "Q4 GDP growth is still positive, but barely"
We are lowering our tracking of real annualized GDP growth in Q4 from 1.0% to 0.1%. Two reports out today contributed to this downgraded assessment. First, retail sales in December came in rather shockingly weak, which was accompanied by modest downward revisions to October and November retail sales. Second, the business inventories report for November suggest a fairly aggressive push by business to reduce the pace of stockbuilding last quarter. We now see inventories subtracting 1.2%-points from growth last quarter, offset by a disappointing but not disastrous 1.3% increase in real final sales.
We are also lowering some our outlook for Q1 GDP growth from 2.25% to 2.0%. While the inventory situation should turn to being roughly neutral for growth, the quarterly arithmetic on consumer spending got a little more challenging after this morning's retail sales figure, which implies flat real consumer spending in December. We now see real consumer spending in Q1 at 2.5%, versus 3.0% previously. We are leaving unrevised our outlook for 2.25% growth over the remaining three quarters of the year. We will discuss in a separate email the policy outlook, which in any event is currently being swayed more by the inflation data than the growth data.
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You're crazy.
Hey, you asked nicely.
You're going to get mighty thirsty. I don't see water on your list.
Obummer thinks you are crazy
More like a target
Did/do the same. I think it's not a sign of crazyness until you call high IQ crazy. I am not part of the sheeple, never was ( but could hide it pretty well until I stepped out of "society" ).
I've posted this on a few other articles here. Hope it inspires somebody who might be on the fence about making a change or following a dream;
I opted out of the system 8 years ago by selling my house in an over-priced, over-taxed suburb and bought a small farm in the mountains of a remote area of the northern appalachians. I used about 1/3 the money I got for the house to pay for 80 acres of pasture, hay field, and woods. Place had a small but well-built cabin around 1,000 sq ft. Taxes went from 7k in the suburb to 2,600 for the farm.
I bought a cow, started a large garden, and got a large woodstove to replace the old electric baseboard. Had the cow artificially inseminated for $30. Next year I had 2 cows. Inseminated them both for $60, and this continued. Male calves get banded (fixed) and raised to size then sold for about 1,500 ( market depending). I now have 5 pregnant cows due to calve in spring. I found that one of my biggest expenses was hay in winter, so I bought some old ( but well cared for ) haying equipment for 12k. I started haying my fields and found that I had way more hay than I could use. Last year i sold 2,000 bales for 3.50 each.
So...my freezers are full of organic, home grown veggies, beef, and chicken. The farm pays it's own expenses and a little left over for taxes and utilities. Cabin is easily heated by about 5 cords of wood per year which takes about 3 weeks to cut and stack. We drink good mountain water, some of the freshest and best I've ever had.
I recommend this to anybody who wants to get the fuck out of the shitty work-a-day system that so many of us get stuck in. I had absolutely no experience what-so-ever in farming or outdoor life. I was a salesman, a broker, and then a print shop manager. If you are able bodied and have at least SOME assets, get the fuck out now theres a better life possible. I read ZH and other financial news for fun, not as a nail biting participant. I believe there will come a day soon when nobody will trade their good farmland for the value of a mdern suburban home.
You are my hero. Seriously, if I could do something like that I'd opt out. Working for yourself and not answering to the government on every damned thing you do would be a dream.
I think until modern times, basically within the lifetimes of the oldest ZH'ers most people lived relatively freely, and I do not mean farmers or trappers or something like that. How hard do you think it was to start a shoe store in Philadelphia in 1800, 1850 or even 1900? I bet it was easier than getting your driver's license, today. Now, you'd have to check zoning, file documents on your business, get permits on the layout of your store, hire mandatory union labor, pay minimum wages, check hours to keep them under 30 for your workers or Obamacare rules, file income taxes, hire an accountant, quarterly withholding, and a thousand other things.
In 1800, rent a place, hang a sign, offer the going wage to someone who can cut leather shoe patterns and have the kids help for a couple hours after school (underage labor). No income taxes, to boot!
Fucking statists will kill us all by strangling us with rules. All the time they will tell us it is good for us to be strangled.
You can do it. One step at a time.
Go out into the country and find yourself a patch of bare land. Since banks almost never finance land like this, the owner has to carry paper and you can get yourself a patch of ground for a couple hundred bucks a month with no credit check.
Then you find some broken down RV sitting in some guy's driveway and you got yourself a fully-operational house for a thousand or less.
Then you come out on the weekends and experience the wide open spaces.
One day, the realization hits you on a Sunday night. You don't want to go "home". You want to stay right here.
And so you do.
I used to camp in the high mountains of the Rockies. I had a pop-up camper fully equipped. I know the wide open spaces well.
When you are out there you realize what a bunch of noise, stress and crap our lives are. When you look at mountains that are tens of millios of years old you laugh at the brief blip you are on a timeline.
While life has it's difficulties no matter what and no matter where you are, government institutionalizes and magnifies the pain. The other thing that bothers me is that no matter where you are, mountains, valleys, beaches, islands government eventually finds you and (other people through it) takes control of your life. Statists never ever stop. They do not sleep or take vacations. They are always looking for you and new things you need to do, not do, avoid, etc. It is a compulsion they cannot stop.
They have the charm of Hannibal Lecter and are just as deadly in the end.
Yea nature kicks ass. The plan is to comandeer all of it, see the Bundy,Oregon, tx red river land confiscation business. The agenda they want is very depressing, packed into a mega region, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaregions_of_the_United_States , forced onto a train and probably never get access to anything outside of the corridor between those regions. Like it or not it is the generational plan. Like a sci fi script. In the works, but not a done deal yet.
If you like your usa, you can keep your usa so dont listen to crackpots
Go to one of these cities and see for yourself, it is happening very fast in fact I have no idea where they are coming up with the billions that this is taking...kidding, its somewhere in that 10 trillion debt explosion of the last 8 years
Yes, but you no longer have the pleasure of complying with the zoning ordinances and enjoying the scrutiny of the self-appointed HOA Nazis out strolling through the neighborhood.
No more driving down the street with some stern-faced thug pointed a gun-like object at you in order to extract your involuntary road tax.
Instead of getting to buy new stuff after you leave your old stuff out in the yard at night, you are now stuck with all that old crappy shit that is lying right where you left it.
And there are NO HANDICAP PARKING PLACES for you to use.
How can you stand it?
Yes, the traffic revenuers. Protecting us from, us and making a few bucks along the way including court fees if you fight them. You pay for your own prosecution.
Take away the fines and see how many stops they do. It's rarely about safety. It's primarily about money.
It may seem like an exaggeration, but this is the prime evidence that when things go south, the cops are NOT on your side. They will do what the State tells them. That is where their pay, their pension and their power comes from and they like all those better than you. It feeds their doughnut-filled bellies, their bank accounts and most importantly their ego's. "I am the law, son!"
Bullshit.
Has anyone noticed how large cops are these days? They have gotten friggin huge! I do not think they could run down the average six year old or a person in a walker.
That's why they shoot on sight, they are unable to run anymore.
@brushhog. I did the same thing ,solar is the next project.
Made the jump in 98. Then got wiped out by the Crash and driven back to Metropolis. Recouped my losses and bought a much nicer place than the one I had as a foreclosure. So I'm actually a little further ahead than I had planned to be.
It's interesting to watch the upsurge in interest from those who are finally escaping.
I did the same. Some say boring but I love it. Just got a freeze dryer so food storage is much easier. Unfortunately, there is not enough acreage in this country for everyone to move out of the cities.
yep, I'm in the Southern Appalachians. Gods country
Good decision. I made another move but strongly resembling yours : emigrated to a low cost/good climate land/area ( SAfrica ). Lots of room, house price 1/3 of Europe, cost of living idem dito, taxes reasonable, heating cost 10 times lower, housing for elderly 6-7 times cheaper and more spacious, good health care ..... my mother still lives in Europe, each time I go there ( less and less ) I go crazy about the absolute lack of life quality there. Lousy climate, aggressive immigrants, dirty streets, traffic jams all over the place, pollution, noise, authorities with dictatorial tendencies ( towards the original population, immigrants seem to have diplomatic immunity ) - no, but thanks. They will never see me again in Europe when the time has come for my mother to pass by.
Would you like to upsize your cheeseburger, or what you owe me tomorrow?
Time to invest in soup.
Time for the those who create statistics to change the formula again... or maybe not.
Now they seem to want to make everything worse than it is. As I have mentioned, lower raw material price has not affected volume and has increased profit for our business.
Massive dollar selloff in 2016
To buy what instead ????
No massive dollar sell off until a crisis of confidence in China forces them to peg the Yuan to their XX,000 tons of gold, and by extension, strips naked the FX market for $dollars. That is the tide going out moment.
I'm not buying whatever these GDP-prognosticating economisseds are selling.
Pathetic!
Why does the White Upper Class Elite fear Donald Trump?
http://powerthroughdiscipline.com/2016/01/15/upper-class-white-elites/
Trump 2016!!!
All Trump supporters visit: www.ptdradio.com
www.powerthroughdiscipline.com
Donald Trump is a rude man. A bully. And a Fascist. Sorry, his protectionist anti-capitalist policies are not helpful either.
The US oil industry and its manufacturing should go out of business if they can't complete. And the banks should almost all be out of business, that is fine just like it was fine in Iceland, which proves that exactly the opposite of Trump's STUPID policies is what works in real life.
then you have your other man to vote for --Hillary!
I liked when they gave him a bad Mike.. and he yelled, Don't pay that guy..
that's my kind of Business Man
If would fucking help if the dipshit actually knew how to use it before he said not to pay him. I would sue that bastards ass off and make the Trump apologize on live TV
I'm pretty sure Trump through his career and the last 6 months of campaigning, with numerous rallies before huge crowds, has vastly more experience of using mikes and knowing when he has a crook one than do you.
Your comments about suing him show you have a similar deficient knowledge of the law. Nothing Trump said about the mike gave anyone grounds for suing him and if the mike provider was so stupid as to take your advice, they would be confronted by Trump's army of lawyers (he has a lot of experience of using very able, expensive legal firms as part of his business activities) who would turn them into mincemeat.
These guys will put out any number they feel like putting out.
With 94 million people who could be working - out of the workforce - I cannot imagine how we have any growth at all. If anything - we are carrying a tremendous load and backtracking.
Correct! As soon as a realistic figure for inflation is put into the equation the US is anyway in a recession.
They fear Ben Carson. He is the only candidate not getting involved in the same status quo bullshit. Yes, he isn't anywhere near as polished as the other candidates, which is precisely why I like him.
What does it mean when "debaters" accept the propaganda (like the economy) of the ruling overlords? I have no interest in how or what they debate. I like Trump but still waiting to see how this shakes out. I will not vote for Rubio, and probably not for Cruz.