Was That The Capitulation? Not Even Close
Is it different this time?
"Sentiment" - musings of a madding crowd - would suggest 'yes', The Bulls just capitulated (notably more than than in the August collapse)...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
"Volume" - real traded action of a crowded trade - would suggest 'no' - The Bulls haven't even started selling (no panic here, especially relative to August's collapse)...
h/t @DonDraperClone
Did the "most hated" bull market just became the "least panicked" bear market?
(12 votes)
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Go catch those knives....
Let's revisit this when 1700 falls mmkay?
Futures down 2%. I bet Tuesday is another 20% for UVXY.
Proverbial "Pissing up a rope" on the S&P.
Outsize price drop on low volume... did the smart money just check the exit doors, and discover most of them are locked from the outside?
This is crazy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v4R4s7ZWA4
^^^^ SPAM ^^^^
Standard Disclaimer: Now kindly fuck off and die...
Must have something to do with the fact that the top 50 of 500 companies in S&P weigh 50% of the index. Top 10% = 90% Bottom. Next, we'll look at avg.share price of those top 10% vs. bottom 90%: $115 vs. $70
Conclusion: Sell a lot of high priced heavyweight stocks, and have a higher impact on the index price. Hey, it's possible the market is rigged, right? High-price stocks hammered: Chipotle, Amazon, Googles(2 classes total #2 stock in S&P), Priceline, Regeneron, Blackrock, Biogen...
On the Dow? :-)
The gains since 2009 are as high as 300 percent. Those are not realized gains until you sell. Next year may even bring higher capital gains taxes.
I can't see funds and everyone else watching those gains vaporize at these nose bleed PE levels vaporize.
Good point. If you got in at 666 and been riding, yeah....sell and take profits. This is the top of very near for some time.
Well, most people who are invested in stock that I talk to, have no idea what PE's mean.
And when I explain it to them, they have that look that says: That's can't be true, I'll ignore you for the rest of the evening.
And I'm not talking small time 10K investors. I'm talking big money guys.
So here is the dilemna - On the one hand the disappearance of policy support argues for the Big One - the massive mean reversion to sustainable value for egregiously rich equity and credit markets, not withstanding the cheapness of basic materials, commodities, and emerging markets in general. Yet at the same time, we are a short-term levels of extreme bearish sentiment and possible policymaker response. Sometimes it feels as if it is only possible to rent bearish positions for a short time in the face of central bank bazookas. Is the risk reward favourable for bears? I would argue that despite longer term fundamentals pointing uneqivocally for a much larger upchuck, the risk -reward is not favourable. It does not mean there has to be a reversal, but if you are cognizant of the fact that as a trader its is not just about your view, but whether the odds stack in your favour at any given time, this strikes me as a poor entry levels or indeed more generally a poor decision to stick with a view that calls for an even larger correction. It could happen, but just as easily, markets to rip higher, going up the proverbial elevator on the back of central banks riding to the rescue in their quest to manipulate financial markets one more time.
A geo-political primer event/s are in order first - the tinder is a bit damp at the moment.
False flags and war. Moar of both. Book it down.
We need moar volume! Moar goddam volume! Cap'n she can' tike it any longer!
Ha. I saw not even a hint of panic. In 2008 I saw panic in the criminals eyes. You could feel it. They couldn't hide it. This wasn't that at all. Not even in Hank Paulsons wet Dream.
That's probably becaus in 08, the criminals themselves didn't realize just how much they had the Fed and Treasury wrapped around their finger. Now they do. No need to panic - they got .gov to bail them out.
Well, at least Hank is behind bars along with Mozillo and Corzine, Timmy and Greenspan.
... oh, wait a second...
franklin raines
Rubin, Summers, Dudley, Yellin, Dimon, Blankfein, etc...
It's a long fuckan list.
Your gonna need a bigger.... rope!
You are actually right. their houses have bars in the windows and electriv wire over the walls. They are or will be prisoners in their own houses.
And when fear is instilled in their brains is also punishment.
One Mr. Sanford W. comes to mind as well. Hmmm, curious if he had any periphery (perhaps interworkings) with respect to GLBA.../
accroding to Reuters, Iran has 22 VLCC Tankers off the coast. 13 of them are full and will set sail the moment the sanctions are lifted. The announcement of which is supposed to be made today. Enough Oil to supply all of India for a week. Watch out for that first step, it's a doozie!
Hard to believe there havent been any 'accidents' at Saudi oilfields.
Half a dozen cruise missiles into Salafist Aylrapeia would change the world.
...fist-and-rape-ya-all-ya...
No one is selling feces on a stick at Citifield, either.
Tough to sell shit at laughable markups when Johnny from Burgerking is barely making min payments on his Amex, Visa, and car, eh?
So let me get this straight, if volume does go to August lows or beyond, then stocks go down how much more?
I say 50 percent for starters.
Clearly, if you print more joobux the problem will go away... (the only REAL question, is, WHOM is benefitting from the counterfeitted joobux)?... Which means? On any given day, 'the MARKET' could go up or down...
It's been going on for so long now, I've even lost my taste for popcorn. (But NOT my enthusiasm for hanging around HERE with all of you fine LADS & LADIES)... :-)
When I see Jack Lew asking for 3 Trillion on a napkin stained with mustard and Jewish Rye Bread crumbs than we will know it's happening !!
Not sure what you mean but youve helped me decide on a reuben for lunch.
And for that, I thank you.
;)
seemed a bit panicky. lets not forget on 8/24 the pre-market halt caused the etfs to flash crash and literally ALL stops order were hit, than the algos took over and bought it all back ...so I wouldnt try to look for that level of volume to indicate the end to this very early stage sell off.
on friday lg cap and small cap made new lows...biotech and tech did not. 'safety' treasuries were muted, not lurching to new highs while stocks hit new lows. intraday small cap climbed some 2.5% while large cap climbed about 1%. similar with biotech climbing a few percent.
so there may actually be a 'buy the dip' occurring here (its hard to unlearn what has worked so well) with the high beta getting bid and the lg cap following suit. any climb one will need to see which stocks are getting favored: biotech, lg cap, sm cap, or dividend payers.
scubapro, the fact that the Plunge Protection Team pumped the R2K and IBB in the afternoon on Friday was meant to make you believe that Friday was an "accumulation" day for the big boys, with better market depth, and make you go long into the three-day weekend.
I have been watching the same thing... many/most of the sectors I track and trade had very little movement on Friday. I was covering various shorts throughout the day... what had been 1%, 2%, 5%, etc daily drops where down fractionally, uncharged, or marginally green on Friday. All while the broader indexes were down hard.
Most of my shorts had dropped 30 to 50% over the past month and then they stopped dropping.
We will see next week.
it's rigged differently this time
The real capitulation will come when some of the 50-to-1 leveraged positions need to liquidate. This was just some retail investors cashing out and making the funds and ETFs have to sell. The big money is still sitting at the table hoping for a Royal Flush!
the problem is two fold. the first is where will they put their money if they sell, in a negative interest bank? the second issue is how much of that trading was just bot trading circle jerking and not real.
There were intense phases of bot trading with crazy bid-ask gaps throughout the morning. It got less as the afternoon progressed.
It may be time to fake a massive attack by space aliens.
We should pull together, all the world, to build massive moon bases and intrasolar craft to fend off the impending doom.
And they should have lots and lotsof windows.
I dont know if you'd fit all that into Universal Studios green screen area
"How tall was King Kong?"
The Bankster bots know that there is a direction change coming next week. They made a killing shorting the market this week and will reverse next week. It's the week of Jan 25th that screams look out below. Watch closely what the bots do next Friday.. We should be mopping up unicorn regurgitation before months end.
Many, many, many sectors (most) have already been routed 20%, 50%, and even 80% already.
All commodities: wiped out
Currencies: wiped out (v. USD)
Biotech: wiped out Q4 2015 and flattened in 2016.
What is left are the high flying momo stocks (TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, etc) and the stalwarts of the indexes...
Meaning.. there isn't much more damage that can be done to a lot of the symbols as they have been massacred for the past 4 months.
Yet XOM & CVX were up for the week, go figure.
Yeah I think it is up to the MOMO stocks to rally the market. Amazon trading at over 800 P/E looks like a screaming buy here. sarq
Are there any good free online tools for charting market data? I don't have any trading accounts or anything but I would like to check it out, maybe see what I can learn. But by good I do mean as similar to what the Tylers use to generate their graphs as possible.
http://stockcharts.com/
Investing.com has great streaming charts.
Its a good time to learn, but not a good time to learn using your money.