Cracks At The Core Of The Core
Exceprted from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin,
January 15 – Bloomberg (Matthew Boesler): “The U.S. economy should continue to grow faster than its potential this year, supporting further interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, New York Fed President William C. Dudley said. ‘In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much” since the Fed’s Dec. 15-16 meeting, Dudley said, in remarks prepared for a speech Friday… He added that he continues ‘to expect that the economy will expand at a pace slightly above its long-term trend in 2016,’ and said future rate increases would depend on incoming economic data.”
January 15 – Reuters (Ann Saphir): “The stock market's swoon does not change the economic outlook and is merely market participants trying to make sense of global developments, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told reporters… ‘As the Fed is moving gradually through a process of normalization it's not surprising that we are not going to be at the peak stock prices’ of last year, Williams said. So far swings in stock market prices have not fundamentally changed his expectation for moderate economic growth, he said.”
The world has changed significantly – perhaps profoundly – over recent weeks. The Shanghai Composite has dropped 17.4% over the past month (Shenzhen down 21%). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 8.2% over the past month, with Hang Seng Financials sinking 11.9%. WTI crude is down 26% since December 15th. Over this period, the GSCI Commodities Index sank 12.2%. The Mexican peso has declined almost 7% in a month, the Russian ruble 10% and the South African rand 12%. A Friday headline from the Financial Times: “Emerging market stocks retreat to lowest since 09.”
Trouble at the “Periphery” has definitely taken a troubling turn for the worse. Hope that things were on an uptrend has confronted the reality that things are rapidly getting much worse. This week saw the Shanghai Composite sink 9.0%. Major equities indexes were hit 8.0% in Russia and 5.0% in Brazil (Petrobras down 9%). Financial stocks and levered corporations have been under pressure round the globe. The Russian ruble sank 4.0% this week, increasing y-t-d losses versus the dollar to 7.1%. The Mexican peso declined another 1.8% this week. The Polish zloty slid 2.8% on an S&P downgrade (“Tumbles Most Since 2011”). The South African rand declined 3.0% (down 7.9% y-t-d). The yen added 0.2% this week, increasing 2016 gains to 3.0%. With the yen up almost 4% versus the dollar over the past month, so-called yen “carry trades” are turning increasingly problematic.
Importantly, the past month has seen contagion effects from the collapsing Bubble at the Periphery penetrate the Fragile Core. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was down 7.6% over the past month. While bubbling securities markets have worked to underpin European economic recovery, now prepare for the downside. The German DAX is off 11% in the first two weeks of 2016, with stocks in Spain and Italy also sporting double-digit declines. France’s CAC 40 has fallen 9.2% y-t-d. And highlighting a key Issue 2016, European bonds have provided little offsetting protection against major equities market losses. So far in 2016, German bund yields are down only eight bps. Yields are little changed in Spain and Italy. Sovereign yields are up 20 bps in Portugal and 130 bps in Greece. European corporate debt has posted small negative returns so far in 2016.
Recent weeks point to decisive cracks at the “Core” of the U.S. financial Bubble. The S&P500 has been hit with an 8.0% two-week decline. Notably, favored stocks and sectors have performed poorly. Indicative of rapidly deteriorating economic prospects, the Dow Transports were down 10.9% to begin 2016. The banks (KBW) sank 12.9%, with the broker/dealers (XBD) down 14.1% y-t-d. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) fell 10%. The Biotechs were down 16.0% in two weeks. The small cap Russell 2000 was hit 11.3%.
Bubbles tend to be varied and complex. In their most basic form, I define a Bubble as a self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation. This inflation can be in a wide range of price levels – securities and asset prices, incomes, spending, corporate profits, investment and speculation. Such inflations are always fueled by some type of underlying monetary expansion – typically monetary disorder. Bubbles are always and everywhere a Credit phenomenon, although the underlying source of monetary fuel often goes largely unrecognized.
I’ll posit another key Bubble Dynamic: De-risking/de-leveraging at the Periphery is problematic, with a propensity for risk aversion and associated liquidity constraints to spur contagion effects. At the Core, de-risking/de-leveraging becomes highly destabilizing. Indeed, I would strongly argue that de-leveraging at the “Core of the Core” is tantamount to financial crisis.
It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns me the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.
I’ll return to “Core of the Core” analysis after a brief diversion to the “Core of the Periphery.”
At $275 billion, Chinese Credit growth surged in December to the strongest pace since June. While growth in new bank loans slowed (15% below estimates), equity and bond issuance jumped. China’s total social financing expanded an enormous $2.2 TN in 2015, down slightly from booming 2014. Such rampant Credit growth was (barely) sufficient to sustain China’s economic expansion. At the same time, I would argue that Chinese stocks, global commodities and developing securities markets in particular have been under intense pressure due to rapidly waning confidence in the sustainability of China’s Credit Bubble.
A similar dynamic is now unfolding in U.S. and other “Core” equities markets: Sustainability in the (U.S. and global) Credit Bubble - the monetary fuel underpinning the boom - is suddenly in doubt. The bulls, Fed officials and most others see the economy as basically sound, similar to how most conventional analysts argued about the Chinese economy over the past year. Inherent fragility and unsustainability are the key issues now driving securities markets – in China, in the U.S, and globally. And, importantly, sentiment has shifted to the view that policy tools have been largely depleted.
January 15 – Reuters (Trevor Hunnicutt): “Fund investors continued to sour on U.S. stocks and corporate debt during the weekly period that ended Jan 13, Lipper data showed…, as risk appetite waned in the wake of global market turmoil. U.S.-based stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds lost $9.0 billion to withdrawals during a week that saw U.S. stocks continue one of their worst starts to a new year… The outflows also included $5 billion pulled from one ETF alone: SPDR S&P 500 ETF… Before last week, ETF investors had been bullish on U.S. stocks, pumping money in for twelve weeks straight… Corporate bond funds suffered too. Investment-grade bond funds, widely held by retail investors, extended to eight straight weeks their streak of outflows after posting $740 million in outflows during the week. The two-month run of outflows now totals $15.4 billion, about 1.8% of the assets those funds held when the trend started…”
January 15 – Barron’s (Chris Dieterich): “Money hemorrhaged from of mutual and exchange-traded funds for the second week in a row, EPFR Global data show… Global investors pulled $12 billion out of U.S equity funds and a combined $4.5 billion from high-yield bond, bank loan and total return funds in the week ended Jan. 23. Emerging-market funds shed cash for the 11th week in a row. Over the past two weeks, some $21 billion has come out of equity funds, still shy of the $36 billion during the August 2015 selloff.”
January 15 – Bloomberg (Aleksandra Gjorgievska and Fion Li): “Exchange-traded funds that hold U.S. junk bonds dropped to their lowest levels since 2009 as the global growth fears that clobbered stock markets also raised doubts about whether companies’ would continue to generate as much cash to pay their debt obligations.”
This week saw the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Energy Bond Index trade to a record17.43% yield, surpassing the December 2008 high (from Barron’s Amey Stone). “Triple C” bond yields jumped to 18.8%, the high since 2009 (FT’s Joe Rennison). The yield on the Markit iBoxx Liquid High Yield index jumped this week to the highest level since 2012.
Returning to “Core of the Core” analysis, investment-grade corporate debt has rather abruptly joined the market turmoil. After a rocky first week of 2016, investment-grade debt spreads widened again this week to a three-year high, as investment-grade funds suffered their eighth straight week of outflows.
“Triple A” MBS occupied the mortgage finance Bubble’s “Core of the Core”. GSE securities were perceived as “money”-like (“Moneyness of Credit”), with implied backings from the Treasury and Fed seemingly guaranteeing safety and liquidity. Throughout the global government finance Bubble period, I have often invoked the concept “Moneyness of Risk Assets.” With the Federal Reserve and global central banks determined to do just about anything to uphold booming securities markets, the marketplace perceived that safety and liquidity were virtually ensured. Trillions flowed into global stock and bond mutual funds, the majority into perceived low-risk U.S. equities indexes and investment-grade corporate debt products.
It is worth recalling that my tally of Total U.S. Securities (Treasuries, Agencies, Corp Bonds, Munis and Equities) ended Q2 2015 at a record $76.924 TN, or 429% of GDP. This was up $30.90 TN (77%) from 2008’s $46.034 TN (313% of GDP) – and greatly exceeded 2007’s $53.279 TN (368% of GDP).
As securities market inflation inflated Household Net Worth, spending increases bolstered corporate profits and income growth. Booming markets, especially ultra-easy financial conditions throughout the corporate Credit market, spurred stock buybacks and incited record M&A activity. As noted above, Bubbles are self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable. Especially with faltering Bubbles at the “Core of the Core,” wealth effects will now operate in reverse. Spending (household and corporate) will slow, with domestic issues joining international to pummel corporate profits. Significant tightening in corporate Credit will weigh heavily on both stock repurchases and M&A. And as economic prospects darken at home and abroad, there will be reinforcing downward pressure on U.S. equities and investment-grade corporate debt.
Back in 2000, Dallas Fed president Robert McTeer suggested that our economy’s ills would be rectified “if everyone would hold hands and buy an SUV.” And for the next 15 years Fed policies did the unimaginable in the name of (indiscriminately) stimulating growth of any kind possible. And if epic mortgage finance Bubble financial and economic maladjustment was not enough, the past seven years have seen the type of financial folly and egregious wealth redistribution that tear societies apart.
The bottom line is that Bubbles destroy and redistribute wealth, though the true effects are masked for a while by inflated securities and asset markets – along with resulting unsustainable spending patterns and economic activity. Regrettably, years of policy mismanagement, gross financial excess, deep structural maladjustment and the most imbalanced economy in our nation’s history will now come home to roost. At this point, I cannot confidently forecast how quickly the bust will unfold. I do, however, believe this process has begun as Bubbles falter at the “Core of the Core.”
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I wonder if it will take an entire year for the stockmarket to crash or it will flashcrash for the comming weeks.
Well, it took 6 months after the Lehman weekend for the markets to bottom out on March 9th.
This time it might take longer, 9-12 months. The markets are way higher than they were back then and they are going way lower. I think? ;-)
Looney
This thing is rotten to the CORE, but it will be November, after the election that this thing hits the skids. That will give each side a scapegoat and another chance to divert the sheeple's attention with a 'Trust us, we can fix this type of event'.
I have a contrarian view the swarmy bullshit artist at 1600 Pennsylvania ave is going to get handed the shit can,they created him they can turn him into the fall guy,the people who really run the show are involved now its up to them whether he gets to November not him.
Nothing would make me happier than to see the Magic Negro get his comeuppance.
Martin Armstong's model indicates a deflation that will turn in November. then a sustained uptrend (hyperinflation?)
I think he was referring to the stock market?
If Trump is nominated, it will happen before November.
They want him to be a lame duck with no power, and no momentum to act. If the market is tanked for four years, how is he going to build his wall?
Hey Mero, I don't think we'll make it to Nov. If the Fed operated in a vacuum, then sure they could fudge until then, but the EMs are on the verge of capitulation and once the dominos start to fall, everybody ygoes.
Where we go one, we go all,,,
;-)
To tell you the truth, I do not believe they will care to explain why we are where we are at at that point, instead it will provide the catalyst for implementation of martial law, because of the unavoidable crash that they, incidentally, created...
I agree with you 100% but a lot has changed since the Lehman crisis.
A shitload more people are trading with robotrading and on margin. Also ETF's have increased 10 fold in that time.
Sure, the markets now have the stops to prevent flashcrashes but never the less, it could go fast.
Also, the countries to be believed to be the richest in 2008 are now hanging in the ropes.
AND, most people remember 2008 and 9. They know if they sell now and buy back later after the crash that they'll be able to make deals.
I've got an entire scenario ready for myself, I've now shorted from the top down, missing it just by 2 days.
I'm keeping an eye on oil and I'll sell my puts in 4 to 6 months and get into oil when it's at the bottom.
After that, maybe 2 years, I'll go back in real estate which will be in a crater and so on.
In all, the crisis will continue for at least another decade... depressing if you think about it...
I was 30 when the 2008 crisis started, I'll be an old man when it possibly ends...
That's my plan, too. It's we either really stupid or we into something. With interest rates this low, it could take much longer.
That's my plan, too!
Like taking candy from a baby, I guess.
But a Sane, Rich old man!
But a Sane, Rich old man!
That market bottom after Lehman was not a natural bottom either, that was a Fed induced bottom, so it in no way should represent how long it would actually take a natural market to reach a true bottom nor did it indicate how far the market should have gone down.
Was that March 9, 2009? That's when CONgress repealed Mark-2-Market and the markit took off until mid-2015.
Now, we're a year past when "don't fight the Fed" expired (nov 2014) and all the By-Back execs have gotten their 2015 bonuses.
Also, the SEC's rule for valuing Crude reserves is under assault by the Dallas Fed. I really don't understand how a 'Bank' can override laws passed by CONgress!
Since the Markit (today) has slammed Qatar and saudi markets, I am expecting tuesday to make my shorts a wonderful place to be.
Mr. Looney is one smart guy!
Crash, partial rebound, further drop, small rebound, long term slide. It's the way things always work.
and the fucked up part is that I can't trade below a 6 month time horizon because else I need to pay a 33% extra speculation tax here in Belgium above all the other taxes on my trade...
sometimes, I'll just have to take the punches and lose sleep on the rebounds...
https://www.keytradebank.be/en/promo/taxspeculation/?M_BT=3527874007&utm...
That's also why it would be a fucked up thing for me if the markets started to flashcrash in 2 months, and recover after that because that would mean a serious part of my profits would be gone... more than half actually...
That is truly f#cked up SD, thanks for the link.
Is this a money grab by the Belgium government, or are they trying to discourage speculative trading in their markets? Possibly both?
Last question:
Is this on top of or in place of a capital gains tax like we have here in the US?
Multiple Flash crashes will do 50% off I think within roughly 6 months.
CB's have been fighting slowing demand growth (aka, depopulation coming from the bottom up) using interest rate cuts to incent more debt from fewer people.
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2016/01/sources-of-growth-examined-and-found.html
Collapsing populations from the bottom up are being masked by masses of old living longer...
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2016/01/populations-of-young-are-declining.html
Im peddling fiction the book is called,'The Grapes of Wrath'
The matinee futures preview of tomorrow's cored stock indices will start in 3 hours
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=w1
Rotten to the core.
Doug Noland has been explaining the global debt fiasco and central bank madness for years now---not that anyone mainstream was listening.
Market events over the past couple of weeks have proven him right, but this article is no victory lap. Rather, it reads like genuine sadness, from someone who understands how the endgame must unfold.
Time for the wolfpack to chow down.
As B'Elanna did, eject the core.
Quite a flashback to the '90s you gave me. My favorite decade still.
You can't predict rigged markets....so...there's that..
The social unrest that TPTB envisioned when they had federal government agencies purchase shitloads of ammo is coming soon.
Periphery?
Does this mean we're all about to cross the financial event horizon and get sucked into the Fed's black hole?
Maybe we'll get lucky and be sucked through into Bizarro Earth on the other side where there's money for nothing and the chicks are free.
It's time to BTFD (but only if you're a billionaire and do so with a little help from your friends).
Noland's summaries are typically concise and excellent, and this is no exception.
The Muppets have been taught, to ride out the stock market crashes, because " they always come back "
now if it is different this time, they're screwed
The notion "core of the core" conjures up multiple visions.
1° There is the core of the core for the monetary thread that the FED/CBs and TBTF pretend to control in a dynamics that they cannot truly control anymore.
2° There is the core of the core of the Energy thread that the US Oligarchs, the ME petromonarchies and Putin control in divergent directions. Here the notion of core of the core is now a thing of the past; it has exploded in front of our eyes.
3° There is the core of the core of the Offshored production/ DC consumption Industrial society equlibrium, constituted by USA-EU-Japan/ China-India divide, WTO blessed deal since 20 years.
This global model in now in structural decay because of the monetary conundrum (currency wars/carry trades) and INSPITE of the weakening power of the fossil energy thread. Low energy price and low money cost CANNOT kick start world REAL economy outside the Casino plays which eat up at least 85% of all new money creation ! Incredible !
4° Finally there is the core of the core of the MIIC stand-off : Usa-Eu-China-Russia in essence. Here the US domination is total but it cannot be sustained inspite of Hi-tech expertise, by the fall out of the financial conundrum. Differing political priorities will tear the DC/EM military alliances further apart (EU/UK/USA/BRIC).
Having said that, a ramp up of military confrontation can have irremediable consequences once the "automatic" NUKE LAUNCH THreshold is reached; aka 15 minutes after a systemic alarm which is NOt annuled. In such a situation the world finds itself in Dr Strangelove's syndrome.
So we have four "core of the core" situations which are interconnected.
I don't see how we can unravel them without a permanent dialogue which DIFFUSES ALL the connected threads all at once; like has been achieved in the IRAN stand-off which started in 1979. Something the GWB administration has demeaned as irrelevant to world affairs, given the US's pre-eminent military dominance. (Now visibly diminishing as shown by its boots on ground reluctance)
Unfortunately that dialogue amongst equals is looking less and less possible in the current geo-political stand-off. Putin and China are not US oligarchy compatible.
Irony of ironies; for those who consider climate change as a bigger threat to humanity than all of the above; there has been a modicum of agreement, which is OBVIOUSLY conditioned by the fast resolution of the four threads listed above, which are more short term and thus more politically cogent than the ecological cliff hanger of eco-climate decay seen as a nascent mirage morphing into reality for future generations.
All this is LINKED and that is why our PTB are totally incompetent to apprehend the problem. They don't see it as linked in the power structures of existing potent nation states or impotent UN type global constructs.
Meanwhile we the people are sitting ducks at the shoot out.
Its our ability to react to this challenge which will determine the issues.
I hope the new generation is more attuned to the challenges than those who have created this runaway express.
what questions do you think yhey should be asking in order to develop and implement practical measures to solve these challenges?
So much is backed by nothing but promises, and there is no way to tell by the numbers. The collapse in energy prices sets up a contagion that spreads across every sector around the globe. The world economy won't come to a standstill. Based on collapses in the past, I estimate about half to two thirds of the population will be impoverished, with most coming from poorer countries.
All we can do is watch in dred for those who don't deserve this.
Is Dudley a moron? Nothing can "grow faster than its potential".
How come everyone forgets the war coming part ?
Good article. It's the best show to watch this year ,get plenty of popcorn
when we have a core breach the bankers et al must be made to give it ALL back in order to save their lives...if not we take it ALL back and end their lives. which seems fair as the opposite was done for the bankers to gain it ALL.
Fuck the core, and fuck buying crap. I've stopped buying TV's (got rid of all but one), dumped the cable, cut electricity use, I'm even buying nice secondhand clothes for the kids. My wife was looking at me like I was fucking nuts. I went and had a dent pounded out of my 10 year old car, not buying another one for a while. Shopping on Craiglist for anything but food. It's my new hobby.
Edit: Thought this was about a crack in the Earth's core.
Mercury has been magnitized and is headed on a collision course with Earth. We're doomed.
"Bubbles are always and everywhere a Credit phenomenon," while that Credit is based on public governments enforcing frauds by private banks.
"A Bubble, as a self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation," is NOT sustainable because it is based upon the ability to enforce frauds, which can NEVER stop those from still being fraudulent.
I REPEAT THE BASICS:
"Money" made out of nothing as debt is negative capital, which is injected into the political economy by public governments enforcing frauds by private banks. Since the public "money" supply has become about 99% MAD Money As Debt, the political economy has become about 99% based upon that fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting system. Thus, the entire political economy has been on a slippery slope, whose inclination has been jacked up and UP by the vicious spirals of political funding enforcing frauds, which has practically become almost a vertical cliff ... Hence, making "money" has become MADDER & MADDER. The physical realities of human beings and civilization operating as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows have been buried deeper and deeper under the MADNESS of everything becoming more and more based upon public governments enforcing frauds by private banks as the foundation of the entire political economy.
The vicious spirals of political funding enforcing frauds do NOT violate any of the laws of nature. Human beings and civilization continue to operate as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows. HOWEVER, the ways in which those processes are misunderstood by the people living INSIDE those economic systems, which have become almost totally controlled by public governments enforcing frauds by private banks, resulted in mainstream discussions of that kind of political economy becoming as absurdly backwards as possible, in every way, on every level.
Although human beings and civilization live as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, everything with respect to doing that has become based on the maximum possible bullshit, in proportion to the degree to which the MAD Money As Debt systems have become dominate. That situation has become hyper-complicated and intensely paradoxical, due to the ways that enforcing frauds is based upon integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence. Thus, the collective power of "We the People" is mainly mobilized in ways which are based upon "us" lying to "ourselves," while simultaneously forcing "us" to act as if "our" lies were not false.
Since enforcing frauds never stops those from still being fraudulent, to the degree that the political economy became based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, which were systems of debt slavery, backed by wars based on deceits, the consequences have been getting worse, faster, at an exponential rate, for decades (particularly since 1971, when the American public "money" became almost total MADNESS, which was spread all around the world to the degree that "money" became the global reserve currency.)
The physical realities of the US Economy & WORLD Economy have become so totally buried under deeper and deeper layers of bullshit based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS that it has become politically impossible to dig down to those realities. The “Core of the Core" is that the political economy operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, whose excessive successfulness have become runaway criminal insanities. "Cracks At The Core Of The Core" develop as the final failures from too much financial success based upon public governments enforcing frauds by private banks, whose self-reinforcing feedback loops, through the vicious spirals of political funding, drive bubbleconomics, based upon Credit, which became more and more based on public governments enforcing frauds by private banks.
My opinion is that it will take twenty to thirty years for the effects of the globalized political economy built on enforcing frauds to have its tragic consequences work their way through from the bottom or periphery of of those systems, towards the core of the core, at the top of those social pyramid systems. That opinion is primarily based upon Neolithic Civilization social pyramid systems ALWAYS being based upon backing up lies with violence, which have developed at about an exponential rate for thousands of years. The ability of those sociopolitical systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS to continue to double down increasingly would require more future doublings to become more flabbergastingly impossible.
The established political economy, based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, has been developing for thousands of years, and particularly demonstrated a nearly perfect match to exponential growth of those systems of debt slavery, backed by wars based upon deceits, through the American history during the past several decades, by driving that debt slavery system to generate numbers which have become debt insanities, due to the nearly perfect match to an exponential growth curve doubling and doubling the overall total of all American debts, which problems also reverberated all around the world.
The historical social successfulness of the entrenched systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS have resulted in all sociopolitical systems becoming dominated by the best available professional hypocrites, who were able to adapt to become socially successful INSIDE ENFORCED FRAUDS. Therefore, it is politically impossible for there to be any adequate "reforms" of those systems. The only possible futures are for those systems to drive themselves through series of psychotic breakdowns. That is WHY it is NOT possible for anyone to "confidently forecast how quickly the bust will unfold."
One way or another, sooner or later, we are headed towards "revolutions" for the established systems based upon public governments enforcing frauds by private banks. My predictions regarding that are based upon my opinions that the exponential growth will overshoot whatever might have otherwise been theoretically "sustainable" in the most spectacular ways possible! The crazy collapses into chaos, due to bursting Credit bubbles, which were always based upon being able to continue to ENFORCE FRAUDS, will finally happen faster than the rate at which the bubbles upon BUBBLES were originally blown up and UP.
Since the previous systems of paper frauds, backed by gunpowder weapons, have become globalized electronic frauds, backed by the threat of force from weapons of mass destruction, the bursting of the bubble of Neolithic Civilization sociopolitical systems based on being able to back up lies with violence, becoming integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, or based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, may manifest in ways that are many orders of magnitude greater than anything else that previously happened in human history.
At the present time, the only thing that I feel relatively confident about is that all of the established sociopolitical systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS will continue being dominated by the best available professional hypocrites, in ways which will continue to make it politically impossible for there to be any adequate "reforms," leaving no other options than "revolutions," after the runaway MADNESS of those entrenched systems drive their own self-destruction.
Endless exponential growth is always impossible. But nevertheless, the history of Neolithic Civilization was the history of exponential growth, based upon the growth of systems of organized lies operating robberies, becoming public governments ENFORCING FRAUDS by private banks, which debt slavery systems have generated numbers which have become debt insanities. Since those debt controls were always based upon the death controls, the runaway debt insanities are going to provoke death insanities.
The BIGGEST BUBBLE OF BUBBLES has been the exponential growth of the total human population, being based on MAD Money As Debt, made out of nothing, "paying" to strip mine the planet's natural resources, in order that those could be transformed into more human beings, human activities, as well as garbage and pollution, at an exponential rate ... NONE of that kind of doubling and doubling has any feasible ways to be sustained for too much longer. Rather, all of previous human history, which was based upon having been able to grow at an exponential rate, is rapidly reaching various turning, or tipping points. However, since all of the established sociopolitical systems are dominated by the best professional hypocrites, due to their careers having been based on themselves taking for granted operating INSIDE ENFORCED FRAUDS, there are no good grounds upon which to expect that there could be a sufficient series of political miracles, where by the human species could turn the corner towards developing better integrated human, industrial and natural ecologies, which could theoretically become more sustainable.
Since the BASIC PROBLEM is that Neolithic Civilization is based upon being able to back up lies with violence, which still never stops those lies from being false, all of the rational evidence and logical arguments indicate the most extremely pessimistic expectations are by far the most probable. Anything else would require a series of technological miracles, surpassed by even greater political miracles ... While such miracles may be theoretically possible, those are politically impossible, due to the degree that all of the entrenched sociopolitical systems are almost totally dominated by professional hypocrites.
WITHIN THAT OVERALL CONTEXT, I CERTAINLY AGREED WITH THE ARTICLE ABOVE STATING:
However, that "the underlying source of monetary fuel" is that public governments enforce frauds by private banks not merely "often goes largely unrecognized," but rather, is deliberately ignored and/or misunderstood as much as possible! It is virtually impossible to exaggerate the degree to which civilization controlled by professional hypocrites develops to become runaway criminal insanities, since the basic ways that civilization necessarily operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, and therefore, the political economy became based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, is precisely THE PROBLEM THAT WILL NOT BE ADMITTED AND ADDRESSED.
Most people do not recognize that THEY are the fuel.
Those who do get really upset about it.
That's the importance of the 'big lie'
I agree, logicalman! Since, so far, too few recognize that THEY are the fuel which could get burned, those few have that reason to get really upset about it!
Since, so far, too few recognize that THEY are the fuel, I am not aware of anyone who has any "practical" ways to overcome those threats from POLITICAL FUNDING ENFORCING FRAUD VICIOUS SPIRALS!
By their own follies they perished, the fools.
-- Homer, The Odyssey
Verily 'tis the sorest of all human ills,
to abound in knowledge and yet
have no power over action.
-- Herodotus, The History, quoting Thersander.
"Its not the stock its the flow."... YUP.
The "unsuspecting public" has been outta this game since about 1987, asshole.
You stupid fucks who thought you were the smartest guys in the room are just now beginning to realize the losses YOU created with your stupid plays.
This is gonna hurt YOU a lot more than it hurts me.
You deserve it, fuckhead! See you on the streets...