Independence Is A "Poison Hallucination As Useless As Looking For Fish In A Tree," China Warns Taiwan, After Vote

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On Saturday, Taiwan elected its first female President in what’s being billed as a “landmark” vote that returns the DPP to power for the first time in 8 years.

When all of the votes were in, it wasn’t even close. 59-year-old former law professor Tsai Ing-wen captured 56% of the vote while KMT’s Eric Chu managed just 31% in a humiliating defeat for the Nationalists.

DPP also won its first majority in the legislature, grabbing 68 of 113 seats. Previously, KMT held 64 seats.

The election raises immediate questions about the island’s relationship with China. "Although Ms. Tsai has vowed to maintain a broadly stable relationship with mainland China, she remains reticent on specific strategies and has remained ambiguous about the ‘1992 consensus’ which has supported the principle of “one China” although each side has been allowed to interpret it differently," Goldman wrote, ahead of the ballot. "Her position has been that this is an option for Taiwan, but not the only one."

Well for Beijing, “one China” is the “only” option as was made abundantly clear earlier this month, when sixteen-year-old pop star Chou Tzu-yu was forced to apologize for waving a Taiwanese flag on a South Korean TV program. “There is only one China,” she said, staring blankly into the camera before promising to behave going forward. “I am proud I am Chinese.”

China had no immediate response to the election outcome but on Sunday, we got a series of hilarious proclamations and warnings from Chinese media.

“If there is no peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's new authority will find the sufferings of the people it wishes to resolve on the economy, livelihood and its youth will be as useless as looking for fish in a tree,” Xinhua wrote, adding that “hallucinations” of independence will “poison” the island’s people.

As a reminder, China in 2005 passed a law permitting an attack to prevent secession, when the last DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, sought a referendum on statehood.

“Tsai should keep in mind that if she revisits Chen’s dangerous path to cross the red line of cross-Straits relations, she will meet a dead end,” The Global Times warned in its own “op-ed.” Here’s more from The Times:

The vote is not a gauge of cross-Straits relations. The DPP’s victory doesn’t mean the majority of Taiwanese support Taiwan independence. Tsai and her party are aware of this, so in her victory speech, she was evasive about the current issues between Taiwan and the mainland, only scrupulously stating that she will be engaged in a “consistent, predictable and sustainable cross-Straits relations. The KMT’s eight-year administration has made contributions to the current stage of cross-Straits relations, a performance that merits recognition both in Taiwan and the mainland. After this power shift, the DPP should assume the responsibility of serving the best interests of Taiwanese society, avoiding creating trouble for cross-Straits relations like it did as an opposition party. If the DPP abandons the progress made by its predecessor in the past eight years, it will jeopardize its future as a ruling party. The lesson of Chen Shui-bian should be a long-lasting lesson.

Yes, the "lesson" should be "long-lasting," lest China should have to re-teach it. 

As we discussed on Saturday, the election in Taiwan comes at a "tricky" time. The island is heavily dependent on trade with China and exports are in free fall amid slumping demand from the mainland. In fact, exports to China fell a whopping 16% in December and dropped 20% Y/Y in November. Given that, Tsai can ill-afford to rock the boat if she hopes to resuscitate the economy. 

Additionally, there are significant security concerns in the region stemming from Beijing's land reclamation efforts in the Spratlys and a dispute between China and Japan regarding the contested Senkaku Islands and nearby oil and gas fields. More generally, Washington's regional allies swear that Xi is out to effectively impose a kind of Sino-Monroe Doctrine against the will of the nations that would fall under its purview. Any aggressive action by Beijing with regard to an independence push by the new government in Taiwan would only exacerbate the situation. 

Time will tell if Tsai has indeed learned the "lesson" of Chen or whether a black swan will land in the Taiwan Strait.

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Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:23 | 7057781 TrustbutVerify
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His views on freedom are similar to Liberal's point of view. 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:25 | 7057796 Looney
Looney's picture

...  Looking For Fish In A Tree

Does a bear FISH in the woods? ;-)

Looney

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:31 | 7057824 NumNutt
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If a fish falls out of a tree in the woods, does it make a noise?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:55 | 7057910 Miles Ahead
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Oh Jeezus!  If you make me spit my Kool Aid all over my keyboard fucking up a saying, are you going to pay for a new MacBook Pro?

"If a fish falls out of a tree in the woods - and no one is around to hear it - does it make a sound?

There.  Fixed it.  Christ.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:28 | 7058025 two hoots
two hoots's picture

 

People have been fishing in trees for as long as I can remember.  Lures, floats, hooks, line, sinkers are found in trees near water everywhere I fish.   Must admit, never seen a fish in a tree and  I don’t recommend it. 

 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:35 | 7058053 Four chan
Four chan's picture

slavery is the new independence. 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 13:11 | 7058428 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

A luscious set of tits begging to be set free...   Amazing conclusions can be drawn with regard to 'independence'....

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:01 | 7057924 Mr. Universe
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A Chinese man who saved a one-armed, one-legged monkey says the primate has paid him back - by killing all of his chickens.

Li Chun, from Menghai village, Yunnan province, says the monkey has become a member of his family since he nursed it back to health.

It has become to devoted to the family and performs many chores around the home - but it also copies everything Li does.

When it saw him crack some eggs to make a meal it went into the hen coop and smashed all of the eggs it could find.

And when Li slaughtered a chicken, the monkey copied him and has since killed about 80 chickens, reports the Chuncheng Evening Post.

"From then on, whenever it's not occupied, it jumps into the chicken pen, and kills the chickens, no matter how big or small, and tries to pluck them," said Li.

"His record is nine chickens in one day. The lesson I have learned is to never slaughter a chicken in front of a monkey."

 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 12:27 | 7058199 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

"If a fish falls out of a tree in the woods, does it make a noise?"

 

Only if a game warden is hiding in the bushes... 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:10 | 7057963 _ConanTheLibert...
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Does the pope eat fish in the woods?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:34 | 7058051 MrCrackerJack
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What does Huma eat....?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 15:46 | 7058999 bamawatson
Sun, 01/17/2016 - 15:55 | 7059027 Mr. Universe
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Down vote for making me throw up in my mouth a little.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:04 | 7057946 tmosley
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I was just thinking this. That rhetoric is EXACTLY that of the SJWs in the West.

I would be in favor of leaving Taiwan with a few dozen nukes and a few good delivery systems and just washing our hands of the whole affair. Same deal for South Korea, same for Japan.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:22 | 7057791 Lorca's Novena
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China must be taking classes from US.GOV, the difference is China just throws it out there while the US hides their intentions...

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:10 | 7057962 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

I didn't know any gubmint officials still lived there; I thought they were all in Cali, Sydney and Vancouver?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:23 | 7057794 erg
erg's picture

ror, you buy now!

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:26 | 7057801 SgtShaftoe
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Every human being should be able to determine for themselves the form of government or lack of government that they wish.  China, go fuck yourself.  You're doing such a good job already anyway.   Unfortunately, Taiwan is likely under the siren song or jackboot of US control rather than China's. 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:59 | 7057921 Miles Ahead
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So... each and every 1.5 Billion Chinese should "be able to determine for themselves the form of government or lack of government that they wish"?

Really?  I gues that may work if everyone was given their 40 acres and a mule but apart from that, sounds a bit simplistic to moi.  But that's just moi.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:39 | 7058070 TheReplacement
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Simple systems tend not to break and cause tens of millions to die.  But that's okay.  They're chinks so nobody cares what the communists do to them.  Amirite there Miles?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:29 | 7057814 Dr. Spin
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I can't speak to the hisorical precedent for Taiwanese independence, but let me pose a question to you, my dear ZH readers. 

What do you think the developed nations of the world will do if Taiwan declares independence and China decides to use military force to put down any rebellions.  Will they back Taiwan or let China have her way?

Lotsa replies pleeze,,,

;-) 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:31 | 7057820 Dr. Spin
Dr. Spin's picture

<<<<  China gets her way

<<<<  Taiwan gets independence

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:57 | 7057916 BlindMonkey
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If I was the Taiwan guys I would drive to reconciliation and look to make a great deal like Hong Kong has.  

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:02 | 7057929 Miles Ahead
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Developed nations...  white European developed nations along with Canada and Aus/NZ or say Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand?  Russia?

This must be a trick question buddy.  I'll wait for clarification.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:20 | 7058007 Dr. Spin
Dr. Spin's picture

Developed nations?

Sovereigns that have the wherewithal to stand up to China...

;-)  

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:21 | 7058008 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Do I remember hearing someone say something about a new world order?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:38 | 7057844 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

time will be on chinese's side, taiwan will go to chinese embrace willingly in the future... no need to fight over taiwan.
 
 

One China, One Taiwan
Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:49 | 7057875 opport.knocks
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Did I miss something? Taiwan is still an independent country.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:03 | 7057934 Miles Ahead
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Yes. No.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 12:23 | 7058232 chinoslims
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The US can't have an embassy in Taiwan.  They call it the AIT (American Institute in Taiwan).  Their representative sports teams are called "Chinese Taipei."  When the two leaders of china and taiwan meet, they meet as heads of their respective political parties and not as foreign heads of state.  The meetings are also held between interior ministers and not between foreign ministers.  China has claim to Taiwan but Taiwan has claim of ALL of china.  Their "embassy" in the US is called the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office.

This is the worse case of double speak ever.  Orwell would be proud.  This is semantics on steroids.  Only governments can think of this shit up.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 13:59 | 7058631 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Oh, I dunno about the worst case of doublespeak.  The "former Yougoslav republic of Macedonia" probably wins by a nose.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 18:05 | 7059526 StychoKiller
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Ranks right up there with "The Artist formerly known as 'Prince'" :>D

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 19:00 | 7059724 DownWithYogaPants
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I'm betting mainland China has better things to do shortly after this shit finishes hitting the fan.  

They've got a whole truckload just waiting and it is stanky!

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 19:35 | 7059866 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

only because no one could spell or pronounce that goddam sympbol of his

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 12:38 | 7058297 opport.knocks
opport.knocks's picture

But the US and UN policy toward Taiwan has remained the same since 1971. Taiwan joins mainland China only if the people of Taiwan vote for it. Which they are not likely to do.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:21 | 7057997 herkomilchen
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It depends if Taiwan is smart enough to offer the superpowers lucrative enough deals in exchange for their support.  If the U.S. were promised a military base in Taiwan, sweet trade deals, etc., and told if they decline the package will next be offered to the Russians, Taiwan might get the military backing it needs for full independence.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:31 | 7058041 just the tip
just the tip's picture

a rooskie base in taiwan is a non-starter.  russia will not jeopardize their gas/oil contracts with china.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 13:20 | 7058459 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

The 'New Silk Road' depends on 'cooperation' and 'long term relationships'.    China is not about to spoil that party by dealing with a bothersome gnat.

However,  U.S. meddling in the area, combined with the increasingly negative view that the global league of nations has of U.S. 'interventionism' and 'nation building' over the past 30-odd years, can and likely will provide China with a viable avenue with which she can 'pursue' the Taiwan issue without too much negative repercussion.    Re-unification will most likely be accomplished by means less overt that outright military actions.    

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 19:32 | 7059851 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

lots of strong-worded condemnations of China

and not a single helping hand for Taiwan

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:32 | 7057826 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

China needs to finish the job.. surprised they didn't do it long ago. Can you imagine letting the southerners getting on with their independance crap for 200 years?

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:52 | 7057887 opport.knocks
opport.knocks's picture

Taiwan needs to maintain independence. The world also needs to support independence for Tibet.

The breakup of the USA would not be a bad thing either, does Teas or California go first? 

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:07 | 7057954 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Illinois and New York are welcome to leave.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:14 | 7057978 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Allowing states to leave without blasting them into the stone age in response would be really nice.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:46 | 7058095 Mr. Universe
Mr. Universe's picture

Kinda like if you want to leave Islam, sounds good in theory but doing it is a bitch.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:12 | 7057972 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Taiwan and Tibet should not even be mentioned in the same paragraph; two completely different issues.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:58 | 7057918 22winmag
22winmag's picture

The South will rise again.

 

Hopefully in the North.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 13:56 | 7058616 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Aren't you kind of confused as to which part of the whole has the original government and which part comprises the rebels?

By your logic, it should be Taiwan invading the mainland to take their country back from the revolutionaries.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 10:32 | 7057829 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

You can be 'free' as long as you remain a slave.

Paradox is a bitch.

Sun, 01/17/2016 - 11:03 | 7057938 giggler321
giggler321's picture

You are as free as the next person on rock they can't leave.   China, USA one drinks more cows milk but is essentially the same, at some point it'll be called Chinese exceptionalism no doubt

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