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The "Historic" Winter Blizard Was Just Upgraded To A "Potentially Epic Winter Blockbuster"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday some readers were offended when we dubbed the upcoming winter storm set to slam the Northeastern United States and impact up to 50 million people, in roughly 48 hours as "potentially historic" - a phrase created not by us, but by the WaPo's meteorologists.

Still, what's the big deal, the purists will say, pointing out that snow in January is not exactly a shocking event. We fully agree, however we would like to remind readers that "snow in the winter", especially when coupled with, gasp, cold weather, is precisely what the US Bureau of Economic Analysis used as justification ot arbitrarily push Q1 GDP in both 2014 and 2015 higher by nearly 1% as a result of "incremental" seasonal adjustments after the fact, the explanation being that the cold weather and the snow resulting from a handful of blizards ended up crushing the US economy.

Of course, as we explained on numerous occasions in the past, the dramatic slowdown of the US economy in 2014 and 2015 had nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with the bursting of the Chinese housing bubble first in late 2013 and then of its shadow banking bubble in late 2014, two events whose reveberation around the globe slammed the US economy into an acute, if brief, contraction.

As such the only reason why any weather events are notable, is to observe whether the BEA once again uses the weather as a scapegoat for the third year in a row, to justify a collapse in GDP to zero, or negative even though just one month ago retailers were complaining about their lack of revenue growth and collapse in profits as a result of warm weather.

Which brings us back to the upcoming winter storm where the hyperbole factor just went up a notch, this time courtesy the Weather Undereground's Bob Henson, who has decided that merely "historic" is too cut and dry, and has instead dubbed the imminent climatic phenomenon not only "potentially epic" but a "winter blockbuster" to boot.

Which is just the soundbite cover the US BEA needs to whip out triple seasonal adjustments and "calculate" that Q1 GDP did not really contract but when you melt the snow on a pro forma, "non-GAAP" basis, GDP likely grew by some $50 billion more.

Here is what, according to yet another weather forecaster, is in store for the Northeast courtesy of The Wunderground:

Mid-Atlantic Braces for Potentially Epic Blizzard

For an event still several days out, computer models were in remarkable agreement late Tuesday on what could be one of the greatest snowstorms in decades for the region around Washington, D.C. It’s difficult to convey what the models are projecting without appearing to sensationalize the event, but here goes: there is every indication that snow totals on the order of two feet are quite possible across parts of the greater D.C./Baltimore area, with the potential for almost as much in Philadelphia and perhaps a foot toward New York City. Anything over 20” at Washington National Airport would be the greatest snowfall for D.C.’s official reporting station in almost a century (see below).

Although it’s too soon to get too precise about exact amounts and locations, confidence is uncommonly high for a high-impact event in the mid-Atlantic. The 0Z Wednesday run of the GFS doubled down on the prognosis, with projected snowfall amounts exceeding 30” within commuting distance of the district (see Figure 1). As a group, the ensemble members with this GFS run weren’t quite as bullish, but as noted by Capital Weather Gang, the ensemble average still projects a widespread 20” or more over much of the D.C. area. At this writing, the 0Z operational run of the ECMWF model was just coming in, and it appeared just as compelling as the GFS output below in terms of a potential record-breaking storm for the D.C. area.

Figure 1. Snowfall totals generated by the 0Z Wednesday operational run of the GFS model for the period from 0Z Wednesday (7:00 pm EST Tuesday) to 0Z Monday (7:00 pm EST Sunday). Amounts are calculated by assuming a 10:1 ratio of snow to melted water; the actual ratio can vary significantly from place to place within a storm. Keep in mind that forecasters rely on the output from a wide range of models and their trends over time before making specific snowfall predictions. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

The making of a winter blockbuster

The impetus for the storm is an upper-level impulse that was moving into the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday. The jet-stream energy will sweep across the mid-South on Thursday into Friday, helping produce a quick shot of snow and ice for parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Snow could begin as soon as midday Friday ahead of this impulse over the D.C. area. Then, as the jet-stream energy carves out a powerhouse upper low, a surface cyclone should intensify on Saturday off the Virginia coast--a prime location for big mid-Atlantic snowstorms. In classic fashion, the low-level cyclone will funnel warm, moist air from the tropical Atlantic into the region, with the air mass cooling and generating snow as it rises.

The storm’s expected evolution is “textbook,” said NOAA’s Paul Kocin in an NWS forecast discussion on Tuesday. Kocin would know: he literally wrote the book on the subject with NWS director Louis Uccellini, the classic two-volume ”Northeast Snowstorms”.

There are many failure modes for big mid-Atlantic snowstorms. For example, warm air wrapping around the surface cyclone can turn the snow to rain or sleet, or a dry slot can develop south of the surface low--and of course, the location of key features can shift. At least for the time being, the model depictions are threading the needle around these frequent storm-killers, keeping alive the possibility of a once-in-a-generation event for at least some areas. Snow could fall more or less continuously for an unusually long span of 36 hours or more, heightening the chance of big accumulations.

A serious flood threat for the mid-Atlantic coast

There is more than snow in the works with this storm. The ferocious dynamics at play during the storm’s height could produce winds of 40-50 mph or more, which would lead to blizzard conditions and huge drifts. On top of that, strong onshore winds may produce waves up to 20 feet and major coastal flooding, especially from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula. The full moon on Saturday will only add to the risk of significant flood impacts. In addition, sea-surface temperatures running 5 - 7°F above average should keep the offshore surface air relatively warm, allowing strong winds aloft to mix to the surface more readily than usual for a midwinter nor’easter, as noted by the NWS/Philadelphia office in a weather discussion on Tuesday night. The risk of damaging coastal flooding will need to be watched with the same vigilance as the potential for crippling snowfall just inland.

Figure 2. D.C.'s top 1-, 2-, and 3-day winter storms, plotted by total snow amount and year. Image credit: NWS/Baltimore-Washington.

What are D.C.’s biggest storms on record?

Among the largest East Coast cities, models are suggesting that Washington has the best shot at a potential record storm. Only one storm since D.C. records began in 1884 has managed to rack up more than 20”, whereas Baltimore has had eight such storms and Dulles four. See the statistics page put together by NWS/Baltimore-Washington for more details.

Top five D.C. snowstorms over periods of up to 3 days

28” (Jan. 27-29, 1922)
20” (Feb. 12-14, 1899)
18.7” (Feb. 18-19, 1979)
17.8 (Feb. 5-6, 2010)
17.1” (Jan. 6-8, 1996)

As this storm approaches, the NWS/Baltimore-Washington office will provide experimental snowfall guidance in the form of maps and tables with detailed probabilities of exceeding various snow-amount thresholds. We can expect to see more of this type of guidance in the future; although it offers a lot of detail to parse, it provides a much richer guide to both the high- and low-end possibilities. For a reliable source of frequently updated, hyper-local coverage, you can’t beat Capital Weather Gang. Though it’s too soon to know exactly how this storm will behave, it’s not too soon to begin common-sense preparations if you’re anywhere in or near the target area.

Jeff and I will have a post Wednesday evening on the NASA/NOAA climate report for 2015, and I’ll have more on the looming East Coast storm on Thursday.

Beautiful cold air advection clouds off east coast today thanks 2 strong NW winds. Winds will shift b4 nor'easter. pic.twitter.com/Jj0SToQiFk

— Kathryn Prociv (@KathrynProciv) January 19, 2016

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Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:05 | 7074411 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh Jesus H Fucking Christ, do we really need this Hype, All Over Again, Part 2.  Let them freeze in the dark.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:09 | 7074422 KesselRunin12Parsecs
KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture

Everything is EPICally AWESOME!... Because (wait 4 it) OBAMA! (time for a 'selfie')

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:10 | 7074439 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

It's a Tran Polar Freeze Quake!!!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:11 | 7074447 KesselRunin12Parsecs
KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture

Your 'meteoroligist' in Chief has it all under control.

 

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/54dce0edeab8eabc328b456b/heres-...

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:12 | 7074458 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

The only thing he has under control is when he plays 'female' to Reggie.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:16 | 7074469 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

I'm not buying bread, milk or eggs until they name this storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

 

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:17 | 7074478 knukles
Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:23 | 7074508 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Epic snowstorm you say? 

Why...this would be the perfect time to put their taxpayer subsidized solar panels to the test!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:27 | 7074528 knukles
knukles's picture

Hello, Solar City?  I want my money back!  No, they're not generating anything.  No, the sun IS out!  I don't care, I'm not shoveling my solar panels.  No, I tried that Instant De-Icer and now they're all funny colored.  Whaddu mean?  The instructions don't say anything about De-Icer and steel wool.  No, I want my money back.  Lemme speak to Elon Musk.  I want Elon. 

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:37 | 7074595 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

I'm so old I can remember when cold weather and snow were just part of winter.   And warm weather in the summer didn't prove global warming or anything else except that it was summer.

These kids today are just a bunch of pussies.   And by kids I mean everybody under 60.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:51 | 7074665 runningman18
runningman18's picture

All this global warming is running up my heating bill.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:15 | 7074759 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

At least they didn't say sharknado.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:18 | 7074766 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Pleeeeeeze! Gimme a break!

 

I can't take MSM anymoar, knob!

 

It's freak'n winter for goodness sake!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:37 | 7074871 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Snow? January? Not in Florida?

If worried or impacted by actual snow in the winter, douse your head with lighter fluid and ignite to keep warm.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 21:13 | 7075025 Father Thyme
Father Thyme's picture

This isn't creating a safe environment for north-challenged people. Talk of Florida is a microagression!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:08 | 7075240 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Mid-Atlantic Braces for Potentially Epic Blizzard

IOW, go out and buy a bunch of shit you don't need, we need your money.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:38 | 7075368 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

 Polar Bear Snownado!!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 23:02 | 7075460 mt paul
mt paul's picture

long fermented walrus flippers..

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 23:28 | 7075570 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the big fizzer.

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 00:54 | 7075831 Not Victor E. O...
Not Victor E. Overbanks's picture

Make like a syrian and stay warm! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNOtEVJFYJo

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 01:17 | 7075890 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

LISTEN FOLKS -

We're all having a bit of fun here, but a week from now, this will blow over.  It will snow on D.C.  Meh.   It might be a flurry, it might be a big storm, but it won't be the end of the world, and it likely will be a bust compared to all the hype.  We'll all be wondering a week from now why the EDITORS of the online papers and the weather websites don't get fired.   Why not?  Because they don't get paid to be right, they get paid to bring in clicks.    Learn from this crap.  DON'T CLICK on the click bait.  Tell your friends.  Ignore these idiotic morons who spew alarmism at every turn.  Let them know (elsewhere in their feedback sections) why you are boycotting the bullshit articles.  Sure, each of us is one drop in the bucket, but ZH has huge readership.  Spread the word!

 

 

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 01:45 | 7075938 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Just keep the storm "at arms length" and you'll be safe.

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 03:01 | 7076049 nufio
nufio's picture

so.. buy macy's stock?

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:09 | 7075244 brockhardman
brockhardman's picture

Usually when Wall St. gets hit with this much powder, it also involves hookers and rolled up hundreds. 

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 01:56 | 7075961 cheka
cheka's picture

must be near nyc

they turned a tiny tropical storm into SUPERSTORM SANDY

and took tens of billions in ill gotten transfer payments from the rest of us

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 05:39 | 7075234 Manthong
Manthong's picture

How about “Massive Catastrophic Snow Inundation of Biblical Proportions”.

I think that is how most DC Morlocks refer to anything over 2”.

 

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:10 | 7075242 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Anything natures God can do to grind Washington DC to a halt deserves gratitude from we the people.

 

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 08:26 | 7076431 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Snownado?

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:26 | 7074821 Nutsack
Nutsack's picture

Global Warming causes anal fissures and veneral warts. Bun and Gerry said so.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 23:25 | 7075564 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

No. It causes severe disruption in weather patterns which were more or less stable during the birth of civilization till now. And that leads to hunger and you having to sell your ass to eat. Wait, yeah, global warming causas anal fissures, sorry, you were right.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 23:53 | 7075657 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

AchtungAffen is your brain on Agenda 21 style authoritarian propaganda.

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 00:02 | 7075676 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Yessss, how did you know? But it's not Agenda 21, which is only a facade from a scion of Bohemian Grove'rs Bilderbergers from the RottenSchild Familie; whom actually work for the World Government comprised of a mix of underground reptilians and intergalactic free-marketeers! Damn you and your crystal ball! There's nothing I can hide from you and those damn glasses!!! arrrr

Thu, 01/21/2016 - 05:48 | 7076221 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Do not forget about this prescient scene…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uokA7s3TtD8

bwaaa.. ha ha ha……..

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:26 | 7074824 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

But will we see "Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria"???

People want to know.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:52 | 7074938 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Enough snow on DC and you might see hell freeze over.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:44 | 7075388 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

If only a "Day After Tomorrow" freeze storm could hit DC during a SOTU.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:51 | 7074668 KesselRunin12Parsecs
KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture

@knuck... But WAIT, you could be like Obama's 1st 'environMENTAL' czar from about 8 years ago whose soultion to global warming was for everyone to paint their roofs WHITE!!!

 

I think he went to MIT or CAL TECH or sumpin'!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 23:15 | 7075520 azusgm
azusgm's picture

That was the Secretary of Energy. He apparently provided the wrong answer when asked what the government should do for residential energy efficiency projects. This was during the time of cooking up ways to justify stimulus money. He said that an efficient use of money would be to encourage white roofing. Caulking was also recommended, but I'm not sure if he was the one who offered that idea. The govt wanted programs that would cost money such as tax credits for changing windows to double paned or buying new appliances or new HVACs. They wanted stimulus, not cost efficiency.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:57 | 7074684 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

And the government paid "independent scientists" are a bunch of Cunts!

i.e: Whores

My apologies to real whores.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 21:09 | 7075009 Father Thyme
Father Thyme's picture

They work hard for the money,

So Hard for the money.

They work hard for the money,

So you better treat them right.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:00 | 7074703 Spigot
Spigot's picture

True. But you have to admit this came just in time for the .GOV shills to use as an excuse for why the entire global economy is imploding.

"We snow jobbed some people ..."

"You didn't shovel that snow."

"The weather crushed the economy, so we increased the GDP percentages to show what the economy WOULD have looked like if it actually was functioning at all."

BTW, notice the recent INCREASES in shipping rates by UPS, FEDEX and USPS? Fuel down, sure. In reality volume is dropping significantly and they have to amortize their fixed costs over smaller loads, etc. Hence, increasing prices.

Another sure sign of the recovery that will be here any day now ...

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:19 | 7074776 Montani Semper ...
Montani Semper Liberi's picture

 In this world there are only three types of people. Pussies, dicks and assholes.

 -Team America

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:35 | 7075349 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You can say that again.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:37 | 7075358 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

"In this world there are only three types of people. Pussies, dicks and assholes."

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:20 | 7074781 Montani Semper ...
Montani Semper Liberi's picture

 In this world there are only three types of people. Pussies, dicks and assholes.

 -Team America-

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:43 | 7074895 hairball48
hairball48's picture

+10 !!!

hairball is a geezer too

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:39 | 7074615 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

don't matter none here in NV, they done gone and decided to nullify contracts with all solar owners and take the power we make instead of banking it per contract.  we be screwed.  anybody wanna buy some barely used solar panels?  I'll never recoup installation costs at this point.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:56 | 7074688 knukles
knukles's picture

CA thinking of that (or has done it, I don't know nor care) with PG&E where no credit for power back into the grid. 
Means it don't make any economic sense.
And .... People with older panels on roofs are finding it harder to sell houses .... must need to give discount for "panel removal"/"replacement"

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 21:14 | 7075031 Father Thyme
Father Thyme's picture

The Green Homeowner's Burden.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 22:53 | 7075424 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

They fucked up.  They trusted the government.

Hint to lottery winners:  Take the lump sum.   You are way down the list of creditors, the first of which are public sector mafia members.  

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