Goldman Sends Out Chart Showing U.S. In Recession, Promptly Retracts It

Tyler Durden's picture


Earlier today, Goldman's global macro strategist team led by Noah Weisberger released a report titled "Markets do not "Take it Easy" to start the year", which had one very disturbing slide, i.e., "Exhibit 8." - disturbing, because it showed that according to Goldman's Current Activity Indicator, the US was effectively in recession; certainly disturbing enough for us to immediately tweet it with just one comment: "Oops":


In case it is not readily visible, here it is again:

Exhibit 8: Our market-based US growth risk factor is at post GFC lows


This was the accompanying Goldman commentary:

Although EM assets remain in the cross-hairs – and the outlook there remains tenuous in spots - growth concerns have impacted the market’s view of US and European growth as well, pushing our market-based measure of US growth risk to new post GFC lows (see Exhibit 8).

To our amusement, perhaps in response to the aforementioned "Oops" tweet, moments ago Goldman issued a retraction and a correction to the report, with the following explanation:

Exhibit 8 has been corrected. No other changes.

Corrected to what? This:

And just like that the recession, if only according to Goldman's Current Activity Indicator, was mysteriously wiped out.

Surely there was "nothing nefarious" in that correction and it was only due to "technical" reasons, although one wonders just how the CAI line was at 0 in one chart, and the surprisingly reverted back to last month's level unchanged, with no data point for the most recent date.

We doubt we will get an answer, although now expect Goldman to once again retroactively revise what the components of its CAI are, just to "goalseek" the narrative with one where the most important US bank does not suddenly admit a recession has arrived.

Of course, the other problem, namely that the "market-based US growth risk indicator" suggesting that the US is now in a deep recession remains... at least until that too is revised away.

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Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:30 | 7072456 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

Oooops.....Nothing to see here.....move along!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072474 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

  buy stawks

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:33 | 7072504 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Bear Sterns is fine!  Thy're fiine!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:36 | 7072545 mtndds
mtndds's picture

Yes that was a big fucking OOPS!!!  If the mass public sees and understands it than a shit storm will happpen.  MOHAHAHAHA!!!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:40 | 7072563 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Someone's buying dinner at the Ritz for that one!


Gotta stay away from that self fulfilling prophecy stuff at all costs.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:44 | 7072599 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:51 | 7072653 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

GREAT CATCH Tyler On The Vampire Squidy SACKS ...

They Got THE Call From Omaba ???

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:17 | 7072823 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Ntdds, the mass public don't know an X axis from a Y axis. Those dumb motherfuckers let all this corruption go on way too long. JFK, RFK, 9/11, NSA, DHS, TSA, and on and on. They call us conspiracy theorists and snicker. Laugh now assholes! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

(Sorry, just had to get that off my chest)

: - }

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 16:12 | 7073437 Main_Sequence
Main_Sequence's picture

"Anyone who claims that the US economy is in decline, is peddling fiction."

-- Obama, State of the Union Address 2016

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 19:24 | 7074515 Not Victor E. O...
Not Victor E. Overbanks's picture

Obama just called his boys at G-SQUAD "Fiction Peddlers". I wonder how many rounds of golf its going to take to get back on good tems?

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:57 | 7072694 janus
janus's picture

this retraction brought to you courtesy the dallas fed.




Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:04 | 7072738 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

And always remember that if you threaten the status quo, the status quo will threaten© you back. And by threaten©, I mean kill you.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:39 | 7072567 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Don't sell your Bear Stearns.


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:53 | 7072667 yrad
yrad's picture

"If it wasnt for those pesky kids!!"


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:53 | 7072669 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

"If the mass public sees AND UNDERSTANDS it...."


The mass public doesn't know the difference btw/ its ass and a hole in the ground.


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:26 | 7072867 It's not easy b...
It's not easy being green's picture

It kills me... even the banking sector is covering up for this administration. If this were any other admin, the MSM would be going ballistic.

Nothing to see here... put your head back in the sand.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:38 | 7072554 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

I tell a lie and I get sent for a whuppin' behind the woodshed. Goldman tells a lie and they get to run Central Banks everywhere. Funny how that works.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:46 | 7072615 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Moral of the story:  learn to 'beat the box', eg, lie well.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:52 | 7072659 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Technically it's not a lie, but an omission.

That said, it appears that reality is a bitch!

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:29 | 7072876 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Errors and Omissions.


It's an insurance staple.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:52 | 7072660 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Anyone can make...a mistake.  Likely the paper cutter alignment was off and snipped off the accident.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:40 | 7072572 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

"Lehman's is stable and completely funded"......

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:37 | 7072530 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

An "everything is all good" email from tim cook to jim cramer in  3........2.........1

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:42 | 7072588 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

There must be some hedge fund in trouble and liquidating...maybe more than one. Margin calls have to be adding to those "investors" who BTFD.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:30 | 7072468 Dead Canary
Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:53 | 7072672 NotApplicable
Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:05 | 7072747 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

You kids and your "Modern" music.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:31 | 7072480 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Goldman and the Dallas Fed have the same twitter PR people.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072492 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

Goldman  Sucks = Fucking Evil MotherFuckers..

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:42 | 7072580 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Your insulting evil motherfuckers everywhere with that comparison.......

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:15 | 7072819 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

i'm just spit-ballin' here - but i get the sense people on ZH have a pretty cynincal view of GS...

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072496 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

BLS has their charts for 2016 already printed, too.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072497 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Is anything honest anymore?

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:34 | 7072513 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Gold and silver never lie.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:37 | 7072546 semperfi
semperfi's picture

and lead

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072498 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Remeber folks, there's not penalty for lying for banksters or politicians. Especially on the interwebs.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 14:10 | 7072778 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Oh...There is a penalty alright.


They are not immune to the laws of karma.


They can deny reality. They can intentionally fail toreport reality.


And they will still suffer the consequences thereof.


Suffer they will.


I can hardly wait until the public experiences real hunger.Then those gated communities will become death traps for these people.


Firebomb them over the walls. And when they attempt egress from the chokepoint access, pick them off.


Flamethrowers work well for that. Why shoot them and end it quickly?


Nope. This is not funny.


Thank you US Military for teaching the tactics.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 20:58 | 7074972 HalinCA
HalinCA's picture

Still legal in MI ... get'm while you can:


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:32 | 7072499 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Trial balloon, nobody panicked.. run with it next week guys.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:33 | 7072505 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Transitory charting. 



Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:33 | 7072509 upWising
upWising's picture

Whooshhhh.  Into the memory hole goes a tiny scrap of paper with a little blue line on it!

And here we are thinking WHITE-OUT is a relic from the 20th Century!


Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:34 | 7072511 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

Goldman Sachs, the epitome of financial fraud.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:39 | 7072524 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If the Vampire Squid ever speaks the truth, it is by mistake.  The US is in depression now.

Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

Paul Craig Roberts explains:

In America today there are no free financial markets.  All the markets are rigged by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The regulatory agencies, controlled by those the agencies are supposed to regulate, turn a blind eye, and even if they did not, they are helpless to enforce any law, because private interests are more powerful than the law.

Even the government’s statistical agencies have been corrupted. Inflation measures have been concocted in order to understate inflation. This lie not only saves Washington from paying Social Security cost-of-living adjustments and frees the money for more wars, but also by understating inflation, the government can create real GDP growth by counting inflation as real growth, just as the government creates 5% unemployment by not counting any discouraged workers who have looked for jobs until they can no longer afford the cost of looking and give up.  The official unemployment rate is 5%, but no one can find a job.  How can the unemployment rate be 5% when half of 25-year olds are living with relatives because they cannot afford an independent existence?  As John Williams (shadowfacts) reports, the unemployment rate that includes those Americans who have given up looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found is 23%.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:47 | 7072590 Haole
Haole's picture

Maybe someone had better tell guys like John Hussman, who are still thinking that the U.S. may be entering a recession in the future, so they don't publicize themselves as being completely detached from reality..?  That can't be good for business...

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:36 | 7072531 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture


Just wow.

Seriously out of words.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:36 | 7072540 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

nobody believes the squid anyway. zero credibility.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:39 | 7072561 besnook
besnook's picture

turning them into takoyaki sounds tasty.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:36 | 7072543 Haole
Haole's picture

Nothing but management of public perception with cartoons, do we really need more proof?

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:38 | 7072555 besnook
besnook's picture

only the tail is missing on the new chart. looks like a fat finger chartist. she was probably cumming and couldn't help it.

Wed, 01/20/2016 - 13:38 | 7072559 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Guess they weren't supposed to inform the masses....yet.

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