"China 2016 Is US 2008" Felix Zulauf Warns "The Outcome Of A Major Yuan Devaluation Would Be Disastrous"

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Sandro Rosa and Mark Dittli via Finanz und Wirtschaft,

According to macro strategist Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Asset Management and Vicenda Asset Management in Zug, the almost seven-year-old bull market is over. China is to the current cycle what the US housing market was for the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It will take years to correct the excesses that were built up in China.

Mr. Zulauf, the markets had a terrible start into the new year. Is the almost seven-year old equity bull market over?

Yes, the bull market came to an end last spring. A new bear market has begun. The coming downturn will be proportional to the excesses that were built up during the boom years. The bull market lasted for a very long time and was primarily fuelled by monetary excesses. And these excesses will now be corrected. And bear in mind, there is no longer any backstop for markets.

What do you mean?

In the past, investors could count on the Fed to bail them out – the Greenspan and Bernanke Put, if you will. Now, however, the US central bank – and it’s still the world’s most important central bank – is keen on raising interest rates. It wants to normalize monetary policy and to end quantitative easing. As a consequence, a sudden about-turn in the Fed’s policy is unlikely.

How big a correction do you expect?

A typical bear market in the US since the Second World War was about 23%. However, this time around I expect a more vicious downdraft. I expect the S&P 500 to drop to a range of 1200 to 1400 – right now the index stands at about 1870. Compared to its all-time high that’s a correction of almost 50%. The German Dax could fall to around 7000, while the Swiss Market Index will see a similar down-leg. There is a real chance of a bigger correction than many investors realize. This is particularly true when there is a weak economy – which I expect. 

Do you think the Fed will continue to raise interest rates?

Hardly. I think that the December rate hike will remain the only increase in this cycle and that there will be no additional moves. Depending on how severe the impact of the falling stock market will be on the economy, the Fed might even reverse their rate hike. That could happen towards the end of this year or at the beginning of 2017. The US economy could cool much more rapidly than many expect.

What makes you think that?

Right now, inventories both in the US but also in many Asian economies are much higher than usual. If sales do not increase materially from current levels – and that is my base case – companies are forced to slash production. As a consequence, data from the manufacturing sector are bound to disappoint in the months ahead. At the same time the Fed balance sheet is shrinking slightly, whereas in China it is falling precipitously, while in Europe we have the situation that Mario Draghi’s verbal interventions might no longer work. We are at the end of an era.

The end of the era of quantitative easing?

Exactly, the era of QE is over or at least nearing its end. Central banks and economists have learned that printing money does not solve any economic problems and does not lead to stronger growth. It did not even help to push inflation higher. The Fed’s interventions during the financial crisis in 2008 were crucial and the right thing to do. Everything that followed, however, was a mistake. In light of the lessons learned over the past years, I do not expect central banks to resort to quantitative easing again anytime soon.

 

Even though in the past the Fed intervened each time the stock market wobbled? Janet Yellen might start another round of quantitative easing. For 2016 this is inconceivable, in my view. The Fed is now made up of different members. Granted, former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, who believes in printing money, would probably administer the same medicine. Janet Yellen, however, has a different philosophy: she is very much focused on labor data. And those look good at the moment. However, labor market data are lagging and not leading. To focus only on employment is like driving by looking in the rearview mirror. 

Would it be positive for markets if the Fed unexpectedly announced QE4?

I believe that in such a scenario we would see a relief rally in equities. The dollar would weaken and commodities and stocks would surge. However, there would not be any impact on the real economy. Any improvement would therefore be built on sand.

How bad is the situation in China?

China is the epicenter of the looming crisis. China in today’s cycle is what US housing was during the financial crisis in 2008. In 2008, China reacted quickly, resorted to fiscal stimulus, which saved the boom and even amplified it. In addition, however, the liquidity from the QE-program in the US flooded into the country, which even accelerated the uptrend – in terms of credit growth and investment, the boom in China grew into the biggest excess in the history of mankind.

And this boom is now over?

Not even autocratic China can escape the laws of economics. If you expand capacity to the point at which the return on capital no longer covers the cost of capital, the boom will end and a correction follows. And we have been in this correction since 2012. The rest of the world has not fully grasped this, as it is used to growth rates of 10%. However, China’s growth has been slowing to officially 6 to 7%. In reality, I’d say it is closer to 2% – despite massive stimulus by both the central bank and the government. This cycle will only be completed when the excesses are dealt with. Hence, the downtrend will continue.

Don’t you think Beijing has the situation under control?

Since one and a half years China is doing everything wrong. It started with the government trying to prop up the stock market. China wanted to attract money from abroad in order to stem the capital outflows. However, this was contrary to the fundamentals as company earnings were falling during the entire bull market. That’s why it collapsed under its own weight in the end. These interventions have only worsened the whole situation. The loosening of capital controls too happened at the worst possible time. Even though this move was the right thing to do from a longer-term perspective, it simply exacerbated the liquidity drain. And now again: Beijing is trying to tighten liquidity in the yuan offshore market to deter speculator who bet on a weaker currency. So no, China is definitely not under control. I expect the situation the deteriorate to a point where we will witness a banking crisis in Asia that will hit Singapore and Hong Kong particularly hard.

So the yuan is bound to fall further?

Yes. During the boom all the Chinese made money. Nobody saw the need to diversify their wealth internationally. This changed with the end of the boom, and capital outflows began. Because China boasts a huge current account surplus, this fact went unnoticed in the balance of payments for quite some time. With a loose monetary policy and low interest rates you can only control your currency with capital controls – those, however, were loosened in order for the yuan to qualify for the IMF’s basket of special drawing rights. With less strict capital controls China created a valve for the liquidity to sip out of the country.

At the current rate of $100 bn. per month.

Yes, $100 bn. and counting. This is reflected in the currency reserves that dropped from $4000 bn. to $3300 bn. Out of these, however, only $2000 bn. are really liquid. If the capital outflows continue at the current pace – and experience teaches us that they are more likely to accelerate – liquid reserves will be drained within the next one and a half years. China wants to avoid this.

What would be the solution?

The best course of action would be for China to devalue the currency in one fell swoop. If they did this, they could keep the lion’s share of the capital within the country. When the currency has found a new equilibrium, capital outflows will stop. However, since the Chinese want to save face, the process of devaluation will be gradual. While I cannot predict the exact path, I expect that we will reach a new equilibrium in 2016 at an exchange rate of 8 yuan to the dollar.

That would be a devaluation of a further 20%.

Yes, approximately. By the way, that would be the level of 1994, just before China let its currency fall by 50%. The rise of the yuan over the last several years only brought the currency back to where it stood before that devaluation.

What would be the consequences of a weaker yuan?

The outcome would be disastrous. Asia is the manufacturing hub of the world. If China devalues, all the other countries in the region will follow suit in order not to jeopardize their competiveness. Consequently, export goods from Asia will become significantly cheaper, which will lead to price pressures which will also affect Western competitors. They in turn will also be forced to lower the prices of their products, which will hurt sales and earnings. Then, companies will have to reduce costs which will have second and third round effects on other sectors. A devaluation of the yuan will lead to a global deflationary shock.

You say the world economy is cooling. The service sector, however, seems robust and the European economy is holding up well.

It is true, the purchasing manager indices for the service sector look good in many countries, while manufacturing often contributes less than 20% to GDP. However, wage cuts and layoffs in the industrial segment will affect services as well. The service sector is dependent on rising asset prices – stocks, real estate, art. Those markets have peaked in many parts of the world. The weakness in the commodity complex is finally being felt. Wealthy Russian, Brazilians and Chinese are no longer aggressively buying up assets. And when asset prices start falling, the yoga teacher, the barkeeper or the office worker will be worse off. That’s the reason why I expect services to follow the industrial sector.

And Europe?

Europe has indeed been surprisingly resilient – to a large degree thanks to a significantly weaker currency. Another supporting factor was the reduction in many austerity programs. This, however, has led to increasing fiscal deficits. Particularly in countries such as Spain where elections took place. Those two drivers will no longer be in place going forward. In addition, due to the refugee crisis, many countries will face enormous additional costs. This money will not be available for other projects.

What should investors do in such an environment?

Investors need to position as defensively as possible. A high allocation to cash is important. In Switzerland this can be a problem given negative interest rates. Bonds are another option – but not in Switzerland. I buy 30-year US Treasuries that yield 2,8% and manage the dollar risk.

Instead of buying the dip, investors should start selling the rallies?

Absolutely. In addition to the excesses in China and many emerging markets we have demographic headwinds. The positive impact of the past – the entry of the baby boomers into the labor force, Eastern Europe and China opening to global markets – are running out. Also, since the 1980ies, growth was fuelled by a massive increase in debt. Unfortunately, a lot of this debt was used to increase consumption instead of investing for the long term. Now, however, many countries and companies have reached a kind of debt ceiling and can no longer increase their leverage. Globally, there is now more debt outstanding than in 2007. And finally, regulation has mushroomed over the last several years. More regulation, however, in general leads to less growth and prosperity. And it does not look like this will change anytime soon. That’s why we will be trapped in this secular stagnation.

What’s your view on commodities?

I would still avoid commodities. Even though I do expect a relief rally sometime this year, as we have already seen a massive correction. From a fundamental point of view, however, there is nothing that would support higher prices.

What could trigger a rebound?

If the Fed admits that the US economy is less robust than expected and announces that it will stop raising rates, the dollar will correct. At the same time, commodities will then see a rally. This, however, will only be a technical rebound, because most market participants are short and because commodities are traded in dollars. The secular bear market in commodities is not over and will last for several years. But even in such an environment gold could rise by 30%. However, I don’t expect this to be the start of a sustainable bull market.

So commodity-related stocks are still no buy?

Only for traders. These stocks could exhibit violent swings, but these are unlikely to be sustainable. It will take years before the commodity sector will shine again. The boom in China was unique and will not be repeated anytime soon. In the uptrend the sector has built huge overcapacity, whose correction will take years to complete.

When is it time to buy?

I expect the stock market to form a bottom in the second half of the year, at which point there will be buying opportunities in sectors that offer growth opportunities, such as health care or digitization. If you have to be invested, you should stick do defensive segments such as food companies, health care and the like. These stocks will fall as well, but less so than the overall market.

Would you recommend gold miners? The look cheaper and cheaper.

Gold miners have indeed been beaten down and are attractively valued. However, in general, they are badly managed and of low quality. If the gold price recovers, gold miners will benefit as well. Right now, we witness a positive divergence with new lows for gold miners, that are not confirmed by the gold price. As a trader, I would currently buy into weakness.

Only as a trader?

For a longer-term investment I need better visibility – which I do not have at the moment. Currently, I don’t see any new highs for the gold price.

Despite all the problems?

All those problems are of a deflationary and not an inflationary nature. In deflationary times gold is not a good investment. I cannot tell the future, but it is possible that our paper currencies will be destroyed. As soon as systemic risk flare up again – a banking crisis in Asia seems probable – gold should be part of any portfolio. I expect a substantial move in the gold price in 2016. But I don’t think that this will be the start of a new, long-term bull market. However, I am willing to change my mind if the facts change. At present, I expect a rally towards 1400 $. After that, we’ll see.

He may be on to something...

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debtor of last resort's picture

"So the yuan is bound to fall further?"

Yes. Like all fiat currencies.

knukles's picture

Thinking about it, for some reason it does seem about time that a big comet crashes into Earth exterminating everything except the cockroaches ....
Day of the Triffids brought to you by The Reptilian Mothership Foundation
                                                "Where's our Fucking Gold, Humans?"

Uchtdorf's picture

---> Moar QE before June, 2015

---> Moar QE June, 2015, or later, but before December, 2015

wee-weed up's picture

Yep, Janet will NOT disappoint.

She will QE all the way until TEOTWAWKI.

debtor of last resort's picture

Yo gold is mine now, you stupid weste papebug. Yuan rice?

Countrybunkererd's picture

I was reading this and thinking of Joseph in the bible.  "Money Failed" and Egypt amassed the wealth of nations, essentially EVERYTHING.  Horses, Cows, Land, as allowed by custom and law were all bought under this crisis, including that of foreign governments.  In exchange for bread, they owned everything, allowing Egypts gold treasures we dig up now.  I love their artistry and capability (things we can't do now) but that isn't really related to my point so i will move on.  Joseph new of the coming crisis and was able to plan for the 7 good/ 7 bad years ahead.  Is this not essentially an environment, where we stand today, for a centralized group of moneychangers to gain global domination in absolute and complete form?

One point, no two, no wait... x things where x is...(i don't care to keep changing it so x is the number for where i end (those maths things again...aaahhHG, I hate geomalgeculus!!! where is my common core score bump?):

1.  The "Jew" was an instrument, not the beneficiary, (for all you Jew haters here) as is the case again today.

2.  Global domination is possible and desired in our case, as it was then without all our technology (read-willingly and ardently used multi-modal tracking devices) we use today.  How much worse it can/will be this time around for the debt serfs/pesants who are and will happy with beer, food, and football (think ROMAN empire on this one/ or read a book if you don't know) until it stops and they wake up too late for any change to happen.

3.  The Jew will, and is getting blamed.  This case, as today, the scapegoat is the easily identifiable target, and as a scapegoat not the REAL target (even if a Jew or two is in the club, the club isn't Jewish by ANY means).

4.  Even then there were cyclical changes, 4,000 + years ago (a guess and i am not looking it up) things were cyclical.  Socialists want to crush and tax Wall Street and all by REGS (Read TAXATION BY STRAIGHT THEFT) and crap that will do nothing...I MEAN NOTHING.  For a piece of the pie to waste on voters, those same voters mentioned in #2 above.

5.  NOTHING EVER CHANGES.  OH, AND FOLLOW THE MONEY, AVOID AND LIMIT CENTRAL PLANNING, PLAN AND SAVE FOR THE CYCLES...and READ ZH EACH DAY.  BUY BREAD, NO SILVER, NO GRAINS TO MAKE BREAD... AFFFAKIT!  GO WATCH FOOTBALL.

earleflorida's picture

fail!

its not the jew's as you say, nor the muslim`sunni's... or in fact any creed, race, nation or whatever-- it's the ZIONIST! JIHADIST! NAZI's... it's religious Radicals, fomented by their leaders? PERIOD!!!

definition Zionism: look it up

think POPE Urban II and the Crusading Christian Zionist

peace

Quebecguy's picture

Long way to go until the (equities) bottom, more bad news coming (currency crisis/ reset). Keep your eyes on the big picture...more devals ahead! China, Saudi, Hong Kong...

 

Reset is coming...

Reset is coming...

Reset is coming...

knukles's picture

Sounds like there's a chink in the armor somewhere.

Countrybunkererd's picture

Sounds more like someone is wearing those GOD AWFUL swishy pants to me.  sssswrresetiscominggssswwwresetiscoming...

(nylon? or whatever they are) that you can hear from 30'.  They annoy me on other people 10 feet away and just passing by, how can anyone wear that crap for a 1 hour workout or the dressy type all day?  Are they cheap?  or just groupthink like an iphone or Prius or global...i mean climate change?

SILVERGEDDON's picture

Okay fellow hoser, so go long in maple syrup and bacon, eh ?

I watched home games at the Forum when good tickets could be had for less than $20.00, and that little upstart Ken Dryden had replaced LaPlante in the goalie position. Les Canadiens owned the Stanley Cup forever back then.

Dunns Restaurant on Rue De Catherine served a pile of smoked meat on rye, a slab of cheesecake, and a large coffee for less than six bucks.

The Capital Theatre right next door was Luther Allison fronting for the feature act, BB King.

An " Artist Painting in Public Places " license could be had for thirty bucks a year. That gave you a spot on McGill College Avenue around the corner from the theater to display artwork, drink wine, and smoke.

Why ? Because it was the best place in the world to hook up with the best looking best dressed bra-less women of the world - in Montreal.

Life was good, love was free, and that town partied 24 / 7 / 365.

Put some silver and gold into an unfortunate ice fishing lake expedition, okay there, fellow hoser ?

Like Red Greene says - " I'm a man, andI can change. If i have to. I guess. "

Countrybunkererd's picture

What?

Sounds like you miss the past as well.  I think.  Where men and women wore REAL hats and dressed UP to go out (in NO relation to Red Greene comment...whoever the hell that is) at night.  I saw a woman at a club that happened to be where i was attending a conference over a weekend and couldn't understand or believe it.  She had a thin strip of what i would call a thin see through veneer over her center region... it was a decent place during the day and seemingly a cesspool of STD's and who knows what else at night.

Where is the CLASS in our society?  It seems the trashier you can be the better...is that "trendy" now or what?  WTF happened to society...nevermind, i know we don't have a society anymore.

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

What would be the consequences of a weaker yuan?

The outcome would be disastrous.

Why speak of "would be"? It's happening right now.

malek's picture

"It's all the Chinese's fault!"

How lame.
And Deflation is not the ultimate bad thing.

Sudden Debt's picture

Thank god that China crap is already contained before it actually happened... smart PHD guy told us so...

Max Steel's picture

It wasn't global financial crisis only US subprime loan  crisis. 

aeslong's picture

Wrong! China's current comsumer debt is a fractional of US's in 2008

CTG_Sweden's picture

 

 

Article:

 

[- - -] What would be the consequences of a weaker yuan?

 

The outcome would be disastrous. Asia is the manufacturing hub of the world. If China devalues, all the other countries in the region will follow suit in order not to jeopardize their competiveness. [- - -]”

 

 

 

My comments:

 

That won´t happen if Chinese wages increase sufficiently. And Chinese workers would probably appreciate higher wages.

 

Mr. Schmilkies's picture

Good article, big picture.

zenon's picture

Granted that a prolonged deflationary outcome is "what is visible today" but one should think of what the policy responses to such a fuck will be. Will the US sit tight and watch the skeletons fall out of the closet? We have already seen Europe and Japan give in. The US is still standing but for how long? What is the next tool that would be employed if things go according to what is on the horizon today? Will there be a fiscal response as well? Zero or negative rates together with money financed fiscal spending: might that not trigger a crack-up boom? Will king dollar still be around in such an envoronment or will we get some form of hyperinflation and a rush to hard assets? Will gold be at $800-900 as the gold miners are currently pricing in or will it shoot to 3000? Silver in the teens or to 100?

pakled's picture

Good questions. I'll be looking for your answers in a subsequent post. ;>

Answers may be seeded with the only known quantity: continued intervention.

Although I agree with much of what Felix Zulauf says perhaps we will see QEx for bank bailouts, as it will be politically more appetizing than bail-ins, and perhaps some form of helicopter money for the next iteration of trying to get people to spend more.

 

 

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

" I do not expect central banks to resort to quantitative easing again anytime soon."

 

Do you consider April Fool's Day to be 'anytime soon?'

tarabel's picture

 

 

It is very generous of you to let them enjoy St. Patrick's Day in happy, inebriated denial. 

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

I assume you refer to yourself, my dear.

Blankone's picture

There are problems but I question some of the assertions.

China is affected, but if China is sick then the US is very sick.  China could be the spark that causes the US to become the driver of the downturn on the world stage.

QE has never really stopped and it was NOT intended to fix economic ills for the masses.  It is for the elite and the owners of the fed.  How and where the free cash enters circulation may be different.

If China devalues (inflationary to China) why would others not do the same if deflation became a concern?

We have been hearing the "deflation danger" excuse for QE for several years.  It is their boogyman.  I see no signs of it other than oil.  And the economic boost of low oil for the common man has been prevented by inflation and new costs such as Obamacare.

The real danger is and continues to be inflation and economic collapse due to inflation, unemployment, under employment and loss of revenues to the community due to more company closings.  IMO

The items that May experience deflation are discretionary purchases that do not have the advantage of being trendy and the new "must have" - the items that are sure to see inflation are those that are needed the most.   Housing is still so high it may come down, but not renting costs.

ebear's picture

"'During the boom all the Chinese made money. Nobody saw the need to diversify their wealth internationally."

Say WHAT!!??

Since 1997 Chinese, starting in HK and later shifting to the PRC have been relentlessly diversifying abroad, thus the $1.5M dollar price tag on a standard west side lot in Vancouver (and elsewhere).

Jack Burton's picture

And bear in mind, there is no longer any backstop for markets.

Central Bank Balance Sheets are not what they were in 2008. All sitting ready to massively expand. They are stretched to the limit just to keep 2008 from melting the globe. It's clear a rescue is not in the cards from that quarter. They are boxed in.

"
the liquidity from the QE-program in the US flooded into the country, which even accelerated the uptrend – in terms of credit growth and investment, the boom in China grew into the biggest excess in the history of mankind."

Thus the down draft will rip speculators faces off. I can't wait till this shit storm hits the Traders in London , The City of London, and the whole insane Chinese speculation in UK real estate.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

With this article (amongst a veritable daily horde of others), late on a Friday afternoon, I think it's a reasonably secure bet to suggest the 'China-collapse' meme is now well past its sell date...

Baron von Bud's picture

I don't buy the China collapse story. China can be a self sustainting economy with low cost inputs from commodities and energy. They don't have the pension obligations of America. They don't have the expectation of rising living standards. It's a nation that can get by with much less and people that will be satisfied with three hots and a cot. If any nation can maintain stability over the next few years it will be China. What concerns me is America. If stocks fall 40% as appears likely and with no credit expansion the US pension systems will unravel. Laws will be changed to allow lower monthly annuity payouts. We'll see a harsh lowered life style for most of us. The US will be forced to monetize debt and embark on massive fiscal stimulus projects. That debt too will be monetized. The whole world will do this. In such an enviroment of desperation I'd suggest a 50% gold allocation and the rest in cash. Hard times, soup lines and the end of pop culture. It won't be getting better in your life time.

 

 

newbie vampire's picture

China now faces a choice to either live with a substantial devaluation or continue to pursue the same mistakes and impoverish itself with the death of a thousand cuts to its foreign exchange reserves.

The PRC govt. has to adopt a "hands off" policy and accept the reality that international markets will set the true value of the Yuan as well as market values of Chinese shares and other assets.  Indebted Chinese corporations must be allowed to fall.  It should include the banking as well as shadow banking entities which are overextended and running on empty.  Same should also apply to the real estate companies and their thousands of ghost apartment blocks.  Overpriced real estate should be liquidated and auctioned off to the highest bidders. 

Only then can China be able to establish some semblance of stability.  Or it can choose to avoid reality until its reserves are decimated and join the rest of the BRICS.

Central Banks will have to accept the responsibilty of the financial turmoil it has created.  Every country has to face reality and endure the necessity of "creative destruction".  Only then, can genuine wealth be created, saved, and invested efficiently.

Those who have gambled with debt will have to face the consequences of their past mistakes.  It applies to countries, corporations as well as individuals.  Assets which are over-priced will revert to the norm.  Property will revert to being a roof over one's head rather than a speculative investment.

 

IronForge's picture

CHN's situation may appear to be similar; but we're dealing with very different NationStates.

CHN have a Mfg Base that's growing, improving, and supplying the EU Zone and the USA.  Soon, their own Middle/Upper Middle Class Consumers will gain enough purchasing power to afford more mid-higher range Durable Goods and Luxury Items.

Instead of 2 High-End Regional Consumer Aggregates, there are going be 3.  Number 3 (CHN) is eventually going to be larger than #1(EU) or #2(USA) - possibly grow larger than #1&#2 Combined.  Imagine that with a larger Disposable Income Per Capita (PPP for starters) and that Per Capita multiplied by the sheer number of Mid-High End Consumers if TEAM_CHN doesn't buttock-it-up or gets sideswiped by the TBTF Banks. 

Enter Cluster #4 - IND.  It's growing slower than CHN (many internal hurdles, even after the H-1B/Outsourcing Boom); but they have the "sheer number" advantage as well.  

By becoming a Major - with the potential of being the Largest - Regional Consumer Aggregate, CHN is pretty much set for prosperity for the next several decades.

USA is in a middle of a fleecing by rentier banks.  Mfg and Engineering Jobs have been shipped overseas for over 15 Years; and our Middle/Upper Middle Class are being ruined by FTAs and Job_Exports.

CHN has a Publicly Owned Central Bank - designed for stability, since it's counterproductive to fleece the public - people will simply flee.  USA's Team_FED is owned/operated by the TBTF Banks - which designed the System to rent-fleece/selloff/profiteer the Govt_USA and its Banking Customers.

mianne's picture

Physical Gold can be confiscated from you as soon as the Federal State is nearly bankrupt . Remember that Roosevelt edicted the Citizens' Gold Confiscation Act on 5 April, 1933 , in similar circumstances, in the post-1929 endless crisis . In the end, the rates of post WWII refunding of the loans for the reconstruction of the European countries destroyed by Hitler boosted the US finance for a new start.

Thus, owning physical gold does not protect you, and too much paper gold is worthless . Since last year, the Cyprus people have been legally deprived of their bank savings by their government and last August , while most of the French were unaware, on holiday, sunbathing on the Southern beaches, the French Government edicted a law allowing the French State to confiscate the citizens' savings directly from their bank accounts if the State needed the money . All over the world, the citizens' physical gold and bank savings are threatened by corrupt politicians. The best way to use your savings in an endless crisis is to buy useful things such as farmland , buy all the survival tools to get renewable energy, grow vegetables , feed poultry and organize an efficient partnership and mutual help with your neighbours and friends in order to survive.

 

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) mianne Jan 23, 2016 9:08 AM

Roosevelt confiscated zero gold ounces.  Only a few dupes who turned it in as asked lost their stash.

You sound like a libtard who claims owning guns don't protect you either, because the big, bad Gov is too big and bad.

The best way to use your savings in an endless crisis is to buy useful things such as farmland , buy all the survival tools to get renewable energy, grow vegetables , feed poultry and organize an efficient partnership and mutual help with your neighbours and friends in order to survive.

On that insight, we find agreement.