ObamaTrade Will Cost 448,000 American Jobs, New Study Finds

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Derrick Broze via TheAntiMedia.org,

One of the major purported selling points for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a supposed increase in new jobs as a result of the controversial trade deal. The deal involves 12 nations, including the U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia and more. However, two recent economic reports have contradicted the claims that jobs will increase. They have shown that, more than likely, the deal will lead to a loss of jobs.

First there was a World Bank report that predicted that TPP would produce negligible boosts to the economies of the U.S., Australia, and Canada. TechDirt writes:

So according to the World Bank’s figures, the U.S. will gain an extra 0.04% GDP per year on average, as a result of TPP; Australia an extra 0.07% annually, and Canada a boost of 0.12% per year.”

This study was followed up by a review from Jerome Capaldo and Alex Izurieta at Tufts University. In a study titled “Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,” Capaldo and Izurieta claim their study uses a more realistic model than past analyses. Specifically, the researchers state that their model incorporates effects on employment that were previously excluded from TPP calculations.

Their study found that economic growth is likely to be limited — and negative — for some countries, including the United States. The researchers also found the TPP would probably lead to increased unemployment and inequality. Capaldo and Izurieta explained:

“The standard model assumes full employment and invariant income distribution, ruling out the main risks of trade and financial liberalization. Subject to these assumptions, it finds positive effects on growth. An important question, therefore, is how this conclusion changes if those assumptions are dropped.”

In the paper, the two researchers state that changes in GDP growth are “mostly projected to be negligible. After using two sets of growth figures, ten-year measurements, and annual averages, they concluded the TPP “appears to only marginally change competitiveness among participating countries. Most gains are therefore obtained at the expense of non-TPP countries.”

The fact that any gains — however negligible — will come at the cost of non-TPP countries should be a warning to all nations of the world, especially those who do not stand to benefit from the agreement. Concerning predictions of actual job losses or gains, the researchers write,TPP would lead to employment losses in all countries, with a total of 771,000 lost jobs. The United States would be the hardest hit, with a loss of 448,000 jobs.

Finally, the researchers draw harrowing conclusions about the end result of the TPP.

“Globally, the TPP favors competition on labor costs and remuneration of capital. Depending on the policy choices in non-TPP countries, this may accelerate the global race to the bottom, increasing downward pressure on labor incomes in a quest for ever more elusive trade gains.”

This latest analysis of TPP job claims is even more dismal than a February 2015 analysis by the Washington Post, which revealed the U.S. government’s numbers on expected job increases from the TPP are not factually correct. The Post’s Fact Checker examined several quotes from government officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. Both Kerry and Vilsack claimed the international trade agreement would create 650,000 new jobs. However, these numbers do not take into account income gains and changing wages. According to the government’s own sources, imports and exports would increase by the same amount — resulting in a net number of zero new jobs.

The TPP has faced criticism for several years, not least because it has been negotiated in secret with overwhelming influence from multinational corporations. In late June 2015, President Obama signed into law the so-called “fast-track” bill, which set the stage for approval of the TPP. “Fast-track” limits Congress’ ability to alter the provisions of the trade deal, and only allows a vote of yes or no. The final terms of the deal were agreed upon in October 2015, and the full text of the agreement was released in November. The earliest Obama can sign the deal is February 4, 2016.

Following the release of the text of the TPP, journalist James Corbett released an excellent report examining the effects of the proposal. Corbett concludes that the most egregious portions relate to the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Mechanism, intellectual property, and food safety standards.

According to the report, ISDS will give corporations loopholes to escape accountability and empower international bodies, overriding the national sovereignty of signing nations. Under ISDS, foreign corporations would be allowed to appeal legal decisions to international tribunals, rather than face domestic courts. Critics fear this could lead to a loss of sovereignty and the enrichment of transnational corporations.

In late 2015, Anti-Media reported the TPP might not be voted on until after the 2016 presidential elections, or possibly into the next presidential term, according to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

In an interview with the Washington Post, McConnell said he does not support the idea of voting on the TPP before the election. “It certainly shouldn’t come before the election. I don’t think so, and I have some serious problems with what I think it is,” he said. “But I think the president would be making a big mistake to try to have that voted on during the election. There’s significant pushback all over the place.”

We will continue working with Congressional leaders to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership as soon as possible next year,” Brandi Hoffine, a White House spokeswoman, told the Post on Thursday. On Friday, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest told reporters, “Our view is that it is possible for Congress to carefully consider the details of this agreement and to review all the benefits associated with this agreement … without kicking the vote all the way to the lame-duck period.”

Recently, the Electronic Frontier Foundation also released a report on the dangers of the TPP. EFF writes:

Everything in the TPP that increases corporate rights and interests is binding, whereas every provision that is meant to protect the public interest is non-binding and is susceptible to get bulldozed by efforts to protect corporations.”

 

The EFF’s report offers “a list of communities who were excluded from the TPP deliberation process,” and examples of “the main ways that the TPP’s copyright and digital policy provisions will negatively impact them.”

These communities include Innovators and Business Owners; Libraries, Archives, and Museums; Students; Impacts on Online Privacy and Digital Security; Website Owners; Gamers; Artists; Journalists and Whistleblowers; Tinkerers and Repairers; Free Software; and Cosplayers and Fans of Anime, Cartoons, or Movies.

Before the deal was signed, fifteen different organizations issued an open letter asking TPP negotiators to provide public safeguards for copyrighted works. These groups include Australian Digital Alliance, Consumer NZ (New Zealand), Copia Institute (United States), Creative Commons (International), Electronic Frontier Foundation (United States, Australia), Hiperderecho (Peru), Futuristech Info (International), Global Exchange (International), iFixit (International), New Media Rights (United States), ONG Derecho Digitales (Chile), Open Media (Canada), Public Citizen (United States), and Public Knowledge (United States).

The authors of the letter state copyright restricts important, everyday use of creative works. The groups call on the negotiators to be open to new changes that require participating nations to develop balanced and flexible rules on copyrights. Also highlighted in the letter are four key concerns from the organizations, including retroactive copyright term extension, a ban on circumvention of technology protection measures, “heavy-handed criminal penalties and civil damages,” and trade secret rules that could criminalize investigative journalism and whistleblowers reporting on corporate wrongdoing.

As the EFF writes, “Despite its earlier promises that the TPP would bring ‘greater balance’ to copyright more than any other recent trade agreement, the most recent leak of the Intellectual Property chapter belies their claims. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has still failed to live up to its word that it would enshrine meaningful public rights to use copyrighted content in this agreement.”

The TPP is not only facing resistance from electronic privacy groups, but from grassroots activists and concerned professionals around the world. Both the Anglican and Catholic churches of New Zealand have demanded governments be more transparent about the negotiations. Radio NZ reports that bishops from the churches are concerned with the lack of openness. They are worried corporate interests are influencing the agreement while the people are excluded. The churches also called on the New Zealand government to make the draft text of the agreement public.

Doctors Without Borders released a statement following the conclusion of negotiations:

Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) expresses its dismay that TPP countries have agreed to United States government and multinational drug company demands that will raise the price of medicines for millions by unnecessarily extending monopolies and further delaying price-lowering generic competition. The big losers in the TPP are patients and treatment providers in developing countries. Although the text has improved over the initial demands, the TPP will still go down in history as the worst trade agreement for access to medicines in developing countries, which will be forced to change their laws to incorporate abusive intellectual property protections for pharmaceutical companies.

In early February 2015, doctors and health professionals representing seven countries released a letter warning the TPP will lead to higher medical costs for all nations. The letter, published in the Lancet Medical Journal, states, Rising medicine costs would disproportionately affect already vulnerable populations. Those doctors called on the governments involved in the trade deal to publicly release the full text of the agreement. They also demanded an independent analysis of the effects on health and human rights for each nation involved in the deal.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A half million here, a half million there. Before you know it you're talking real money unemployment.

So exactly whom is the TTP designed to benefit?

TeamDepends's picture

Speaking of treason, 200 FBI vehicles have descended upon the standoff in Burns, Oregon. Remember, these protesters are NOT anti-government but rather pro-constitution. If this goes Waco....https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b2NWx4P8rzY

Sudden Debt's picture

These guys are 1 decade to early.

The American people are still to dumbed down to realize they should support them.

TeamDepends's picture

The brain-dead progressives and FSA soldiers are too far gone yes, but there are exponentially increasing numbers of average Americans who are realizing something is terribly wrong. The American Revolution began with only 3% standing up and saying, "fuck you, George!!!". So it will be again. None of us has ten years to wait, the tipping point is coming this year. TPP is a perfect example of why these fucks must be stopped and now.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

"FORWARD!"

Soetoro is giving Maduro a run for the money.

James-Morrison's picture

Everything he touches turns to shit.

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

 

I know Bill Ayers.....according to him......Obama hates America.

 

Hey....it's just what I've heard.

Freddie's picture

Apparently that land was promised to a Russian company by the Clintons for mining uranium.  This is why the ranchers have to go.  Just like the Bundy ranch and the Chinese powerline near Vegas.

eforce's picture

That would explain RT's hostility towards them...

chubbar's picture

Here is a must read on some of the issues with that land. It appears Hillary once again has her dirty hands in this. Looks like our politicians are getting kick backs for selling our land.

https://www.intellihub.com/clinton-foundation-payoffs-promised-hammond-r...

"

 

  January 23, 2016 12:05 am EST

Clinton Foundation took massive payoffs, promised Hammond Ranch and other publicly owned lands to Russian’s along with one-fifth of our uranium ore Whore of Babylon shreds Constitution, exposed as ultimate backer of massive U.S. land grab By Shepard Ambellas

Related: Rancher Dwight Hammond threatened with “bullet”: Exclusive Interview

PRINCETON, Ore. (INTELLIHUB) — As it turns out there’s a lot more to the story behind the Malheur Wildlife Refuge–a whole lot more–and this article is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

As you may or may not know, Intellihub reported on Jan. 4, that the Hammond’s ranch and other ranch-lands surrounding the refuge sit atop a vast swath of precious metals, minerals, and uranium that’s heavily desired by not only the federal government, but foreign entities as well.

However, at the time of the article’s publication the federal government’s full motive to seize the land was not yet known other than the fact that these elements do exist in the vicinity and are invaluable.

Now, after further investigation, more pieces of the puzzle have been put in place and you’re not going to believe what characters are involved.

I’ll give you a hint–one of them is currently being investigated by the FBI and is also running on the Democratic ticket in hopes of becoming the next President of the United States. That’s right, you guessed it–none other than Hillary Rodham Clinton of the notorious Clinton crime family.

Hillary and her foundation are implicated in the dastardly scheme along with the Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation, Rosatom, and a few dubious Canadian elite, which is where the news gets really bad.

Rosatom is ranked #2 globally in uranium reserves and #1 globally for annual uranium extraction. The sheer power, strength, and size of the corporation is undeniable. Rostom is a major power-player in today’s world and didn’t become that way for no reason.

You see, Rosatom wanted to expand their operations into America and needed a way in. So, in 2013, Rosatom acquired a Canadian company named Uranium One as part of a sinister side deal which involved multiple parties. Ultimately the deal opened a typically secure and closed-door, thus allowing the Russian’s to salt their way into Continental United States as part of a vast and extensive plan to mine Uranium ore out of states like Wyoming and Oregon.

The deal was essentially brokered by Hillary and was ran through the Clinton Foundation using Canadian-backed contributions as a cover. With one swoop of a pen the bitch sold out the American people and one-fifth of America’s uranium resources to the Russian’s.

In April of 2015, two reporters for the New York Times boldly reported how the plan worked:

At the heart of the tale are several men, leaders of the Canadian mining industry, who have been major donors to the charitable endeavors of former President Bill Clinton and his family. Members of that group built, financed and eventually sold off to the Russians a company that would become known as Uranium One.

Beyond mines in Kazakhstan that are among the most lucrative in the world, the sale gave the Russians control of one-fifth of all uranium production capacity in the United States. Since uranium is considered a strategic asset, with implications for national security, the deal had to be approved by a committee composed of representatives from a number of United States government agencies. Among the agencies that eventually signed off was the State Department, then headed by Mr. Clinton’s wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton"

STP's picture

A lot of very good links in that article! Thanks for putting that up.

Normalcy Bias's picture

Well, they'll have the time to work on their 'art' and play in drum circles 'n shit (or plot revolution). Think of the freedom!

Sudden Debt's picture

About 12 people. But it's a patriotic thing to support it...

To late now, the bill was passed!

People always think it will only affect others and make their lives better so they support the mumbo jumbo they're fed.

So in all, the people get and got what they deserve.

 

drendebe10's picture

The illegal Indonesian kenyan alien muslim fudgepacker continuing in its successful drive to destroy Amerika & the middle class. The traitorous turd who has repeatedly violated the oath of office it took needs its skin sandpapered off buried in salt then thrown out in the middle of an Iranian desert with a can of Pennzoil.

V for ...'s picture

He gets his orders at his first meeting  11 a.m. every day along with arch zionist Joe Biden, D.C. habitue and money whore, and he spends more time on golf courses than in national security briefings. Yet you think he makes policy or even understands it.

Ridiculous.

November 22, 1963 was a coup d'etat. Get your head around that one, munchkin. Emergency powers for the hidden .gov exist since 9/11. That is their law. Fact.

Do you think so much could be imposed upon the USA and the world otherwise?

Vendetta's picture

the fudgepacker is doing what all the globalist politicians do... fuck over Amerika whenever, however they can

V for ...'s picture

You do know that it was a secret deal, don't you? It was given the status of top security, and anyone who divulged its contents outside the permitted ones could be prosecuted.

This is the fascist State the world is in now, not just the USA.

Qui bono? The banks most, and their chosen big companies. This is not about fair trade. It is about control.

V for ...'s picture

Then my apology is due to you. Silly me. Some things flip my switch, but I'm sure you will forgive, CG. We are only human.

Bearwagon's picture

I haven't used much sarc tags since the days Marla was still around ... and everyone understood nonetheless ...

V for ...'s picture

You do know that it was a secret deal, don't you? It was given the status of top security, and anyone who divulged its contents outside the permitted ones could be prosecuted.

This is the fascist State the world is in now, not just the USA.

Qui bono? The banks most, and their chosen big companies. This is not about fair trade. It is about control.

Vendetta's picture

globalism and fascism are blood brothers

V for ...'s picture

You do know that it was a secret deal, don't you? It was given the status of top security, and anyone who divulged its contents outside the permitted ones could be prosecuted.

This is the fascist State the world is in now, not just the USA.

Qui bono? The banks most, and their chosen big companies. This is not about fair trade. It is about control.

junction's picture

30 years ago, there was a garment industry in New York City that employed some 250,000 workers.  There were sewing machine operators, cutters, truck drivers, sample makers, showroom employees, jobbers, and the list of jobs goes on.  Between NAFTA, outsourcing of jobs to sweatshops in the Caribbean and factory space being converted to office space (and later, to residential space as loft apartments), almost all those garment industry manufacturing jobs vanished.  The garment workers' union, then the ILGWU, had a clause in its contract requiring payment of "liquidated damages" to the union before a firm could abruptly shut down and buy its goods overseas.  Once the ILGWU got its payoff, goodbye garment industry.

Once TPP is in force, you can kiss goodbye most American manufacturing jobs, computer technology jobs and and any other job that can be done a lot cheaper overseas, even if the quality is subpar.  Welcome to the New World Order, peasants.

TheFutureIsThePast's picture

As long as I've got football and beer, I don't care!
/s

tarabel's picture

 

 

I've been recording every game I can find all year long.

Gonna open my own post-apocalyptic sports bar some day.

Go Broncos

OldPhart's picture

Where will you get the booze from?

Probably should prepare there, too.

lakecity55's picture

And, after all our jobs are outsourced, we will be exterminated.

BullyBearish's picture

Why would anyone believe that a complicated, secret trade agreement was crafted to benefit American Citizens at the expense of bankers?

 

Let’s be clear: the TPP is much more than a “free trade” agreement. It is part of a global race to the bottom to boost the profits of large corporations and Wall Street by outsourcing jobs; undercutting worker rights; dismantling labor, environmental, health, food safety and financial laws; and allowing corporations to challenge our laws in international tribunals rather than our own court system. If TPP was such a good deal for America, the administration should have the courage to show the American people exactly what is in this deal, instead of keeping the content of the TPP a secret

V for ...'s picture

TPP is the biggest betrayal of the entire world, all for the corporatists. It is not capitalism. It is not socialism. It is the new feudalism, and that is why its makers kept it secret, all the better to steal, like any crime syndicate. Any Western  politician who voted for it has committed treason of the highest order. The rest of the world is accustomed to low wage slavery or worse, so it's no surprise that they are unaware or approve of it.

People should read the words of the Trilateral Commission, and see its intention to bring all down to the lowest cost base. They say it is fair. I say it is fraud.

I don't own slaves. I dislike slavery.  Now you do if you accept  this slave master secret deal, the TPP, without complaint.

Wulfkind's picture

In my 52 years of experience, I have noticed a near political law in which if the government says something will cost X jobs or X amount of money at a MINIMUM multiply that number by a factor of 2.  In most case 3 times is more appropriate....sometimes 4.

So with that in mind.....TPP will cost at a MINIMUM 869,000 jobs and more probably 1,344,000 jobs and possibly up to 1,792,000 jobs.

But that's ok.....we'll make that up with 5,000,000 more illegal aliens.  So, it's all good.

I think I hear that "Giant Sucking Sound" that Ross Perot heard right before NAFTA was passed.

Vendetta's picture

I think they're off by 400%.   But there are a whole lot of people out there in the US who STILL do not have a clue about it.... but they wonder why their kids are 29 years old and still living at home with a college degree working at walmart (if they're 'lucky')

km4's picture

well Obama ran on hope and change ;-)


lester1's picture

Donald Trump is strongly against TPP.

 

Hillary Rotten Clinton is for TPP

 

Remember that when you go vote !

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Hillary didn't even get 1% in the Drudge poll.

 

Just sit there and let that sink in.

http://drudgereport.com/nosp.htm

Everyman's picture

If you like your unemployment, you can keep your unemployment.

ThroxxOfVron's picture

Funemployment

Nonemployment

Yen Cross's picture

 Not to detract  [in any way] from your comment ... If you like your labor participation rate, you can keep it.

 Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

I need more asshats's picture

The march toward a NWO will have no good affect on anyone except the joo oligarchs who control the effort.

Even if Trumpo the Clown is elected. TTP will not be rolled back.

Lurk Skywatcher's picture

TPP cannot be rolled back because it contains no exit clause.

loonyleft's picture

trump would roll it back if he could but he wouldn't because there is no exit clause.There are lots of words on paper and no exit clause. Oh noes! the catastrophe. Look, there's nothing can be done, see? it's right there, written on paper. Ink is dry. Nothing can be done, ever. Oh woe, the paper, the ink, it's unchangeable. Look at President Trump, he's doing a shruggy thing with his shoulders with his hands out.

Ocean22's picture

Had to sign in LOONYLEFT just to say +1000 !! Thats the funnest comment I ve seen in a while! Great!

Ocean22's picture

Had to sign in LOONYLEFT just to say +1000 !! Thats the funnest comment I ve seen in a while! Great!

Bearwagon's picture

Didn't Neville Chamberlain have a very similar piece of unchangeable paper with dry ink, back in 1938?

chubbar's picture

The constitution was also something that was unchangeable unless congress amended it. Look how that turned out.

Bazza McKenzie's picture

Irrelevant.  First it hasn't got past the senate yet (nor should it), so it is no more than a piece of paper "negotiated" by Obama but with no treaty obligations on the US.

Even if it does pass the Senate and formally becomes a treaty, history is full of nations repudiating treaties when they felt like it, provided they were strong enough.  If the US decides to tear up TPP or NAFTA or any other treaty, no one is going to be strong enough to do anything about it.

I'm not speaking in favor of TPP, which is an appalling piece of work.  But it will apply only until a US government says scrap it.

Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Of course the headline should read:

Obama’s Masters who crafted ObamaTrade Will Cost 448,000 American Jobs, New Study Finds.

Obama (or any president) is just a puppet with no real powers …. This is taught in high school.