How The Current Sell-Off Stacks Up To All Previous Bear Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

Based on 43 large sell-offs in the world's major equity markets, Morgan Stanley gauges how the current market slide compares to bear markets and bull corrections through history. While they have tended to last about 190 business days, with drawdowns around 30%, the current environment is considerably weaker than the typical bear market beginning...

The Bear Necessities – What’s the ‘Typical’ Sell-Off Environment?

 Valuations tended to be cheaper than those seen at current sell-off’s peak, while macro (GDP, inflation) tended to be stronger at the start of bear markets.


If ACWI followed the script precisely, it would imply ~10% downside from current levels over the course of four weeks.

Equity markets started the current sell-off from a more expensive point on most valuation metrics and remain more expensive vs. previous troughs.

The weaker macro vs. previous market sell-offs argues for being defensive and avoid stretching for beta. Overall, we prefer credit over equities, as it is almost priced for a recession.

Full Bear Market Almanac below:


MS BearMarketAlmanac

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db51's picture

Weaker than a traditional Bear Market beginning?  LMFAO...Yeah...right...when has there ever in history been this much Tom Fuckery and Rigging going on???     The word Tradition has no place in discussion in this shitshow.  

Mr.Sono's picture

So is it offecially a bear market?

sun tzu's picture

Not yet and according to the central banks, no more bear markets or recessions are allowed

Viffer's picture


If you were to compare the markets to software development with bugs being a bear market, then a bug is an "undocumented feature" and a bear market is an "unascertained profit".

Dindu Nuffin's picture

Anyone know where I can find that MS Bear Almanac?   Would be much appreciated. PCe

Bastiat's picture

The tide's going out and it is, officially, a bare nekkid.

Cadavre's picture

It's never a bear market, officially or otherwise contrived!

Aside from the usual inquisitional fair, i.e.,:

1) When will a deflated USD inflate?

2) How and where would one stash and hold cash while waiting for the great inflation to begin?

3) Why is my fund management shop taking so long to recalculate interest on a settlement award, when it in a response to a court order, it was converted to lump of non-working capital waiting for my transfer instructions?

4) (My fav) How does one redeem short positions when the value of the issuer of the underly is floating belly-up in the river Stix?

5) Why are gold bulls suggesting bullion to shore up a [deflating] cash position? 

6) Is Bernie (i-love-cock-up-the-backside) Madoff pregnant, or just constipated real bad?

7) Why ain't anyone talking about the F15 Factory in Turkey that resulted from Willey's DoD honcho's lobbying group. The Cohen (Hight Priest) Group, and possible School of America pilot certification training courses being offer to Isis (turn bear to bull that's be de path)?

8) Why is everyone bitching `bout corporations being nomered as "people", when they should be demanding, "if corporations are people, then PEOPLE are CORPORATIONS". 

9) And how come a click to the linked scrib-Ed-ed (due to Copy Right) issues source in the article had a title "Oops, Page Not Found".

Let's see, Goldman's owns the VIX print. And the attached charts are a tad different than the historical lines, for good reason. For one, someone figured out a way to attenuate the amplitude, thus smoothing transitions such that an expected, noisy, double highs are now worn out, flaccid, cartoon camel humps - the way any self respecting Wahabi Zogladyte might render US market data.

Admittedly, it's difficult for a mentally challenged, yet pure as the driven [yellow] snow Zogbot preoccupied with the potty rituals of Manhattan's top drawer welfare queens, to even pretend to know much more than they are to sit in a chair behind the little sign with their name on it, to incite the need for a phat dose of QE, but that don't stop em from trying. For example, one of our illustrious lame brains the Diebold to us we hired blurted this to the BBC:

“Putin is corrupt and the U.S. government has known this for many, many years,” Szubin told the BBC Panorama program."

hmmmm .... the fox be the finder, the stink lay behind her ... hmmm

And, as expected, no proof, no offer of evidence, and no shame - and Szubin's "doe's eyes in de headlights" take on the reality of the situation, thinks the UK commons is gonna fall for this anymore than the US's?

Like some "TIME FOR WWIII, Putin be Corrupt" momentum is gonna story-up more QE?

Gimme a fuck'n break.

Is Szubin confusing NGO's previously hired to screw up Russian pleurisy, and recently morphed to the "fake islamic state mercs for whities", gonna save his but from an ankle hanging off a cherry tree branch lining the national mall's reflecting pool.

One thing's for sure about Doc Szubin, it take one one to know one.

I like Saturday morning cartoons as much as the next guy, but 24/7? Gimme a break. I got bidness needing to be done.

Do they think anybody out there in TV land is really buying this shit? If that true, de restoration gonna be easier dan previously reckoned - an you can take dat to de community bank, 4 sure!

Wrascaly Wabbit's picture

Could not have said it better!

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Sliding right back up 1% or more. The"market" is begging for another rate increase tomorrow. Strong economic fundamentals.



arbwhore's picture

35 minutes to AAPL numbers...

CHoward's picture

So...we're doing good then, right?

jubber's picture

so #Dow futures only up 475 points on yet another phoey Oil ramp

Freedumb's picture

What do you mean bear market? Performance on markets has been excellent for the special fiscal year beginning January 26, 2015.

Sudden Debt's picture

Are that 7 days per week or only trading days?

lester1's picture

Does the Federal Reserve buy stocks?..


Whats to stop them?

Sudden Debt's picture


They want to please the new president.

Thomas Sowell's picture

Elections for sure. Fed can purchase any asset to back mandate for pricing, output, employment etc. I think we are seeing signal that dealer/allocator would have should have or could have placed liquidity more balanced in the "real economy." Then, I do not see ppt becoming active.

RiverDrifter's picture

What was the document that was removed....anyone able to at least mention it so those of us who are too late to see can go look for it elsewhere?

TheDanimal's picture

As of now, the full almanac has been removed due to "copyright infringement".

honestann's picture

This time they'll have to extend the bottom of the chart lower.