Durable Goods Devastation: Capital Goods Orders Crash To Fresh Crisis Lows, Scream Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

Durable Goods Orders crashed 5.1% MoM, far below the worst Wall Street forecast...

... and turned back negative YoY as both sets including and ex-transports continues to deteriorate, flashing that a recessionary environment is already upon us (if not an actual recession).

However, it is in the core - non-defense ex-aircraaft - segment that we see the real bloodbath as shipments plunged and new orders collapsed 7.5% YoY - another "worst since Lehman" moment. Of course we still have bartenders and waitresses to maintain the US economy so this is just transitory weakness in the stock market's most-dependent segment of the economy.

Headline data turned back red YoY.


Ex-Transports remains in recessionary negative territory.


Actual shipments of core capex tumbled along with everything else:


And finally the real carnage - capital goods orders are collapsing at the fastest rate since... Lehman. Note that the US economy has never seen a decline like this in recent history without it being in recession, or just ahead of one.


Of course - this is all nothing that a good rate hike won't fix, with all its confidence-inspiring sentiment.

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LawsofPhysics's picture

Quick!  Push on another string, this one just broke!!!



pedro314's picture

Nothing to worry about... Facebook will save us all with the revenue from the mobile ads...

The Limerick King's picture



An ode to a durable good

And markets that aren't understood

Some hawkish aggression

In midst of recession

Should Yellen be fired?...she should

Save_America1st's picture


What does Nanex show about the silver mini flash crash around 7:10am this morning?  Something happened there that didn't happen with anything else but silver.

It shot down to 14 even from 14.40 and then back up again to around 14.40


9:30am and paper silver is getting hit hard again

NoDebt's picture

Welcome back TLK.  Been a while.

gaoptimize's picture

Yes! Limericks are the West's haiku.  They structure language and thought in a most delightful way.  Welcome back.

The Limerick King's picture

Much appreciated guys. I'm here all the time...but more reading than posted.

All Risk No Reward's picture

>>Should Yellen be fired?...she should<<

Wouldn't make a bit of difference. She's effectively a clerk, with the desired rhetorical impact, that implements orders from the Debt-Money Monopolists - the OWNERS AND CONTROLLERS of their debt-money producing TBTF&Jail corporate banking fronts.

BTW, useful idiots (and you know who you are, but you don't need to continue being one), they are not all Jewish and placing blame on a clueless Jewish victim instead of a non-Jewish Debt-Money Monopolist (got Queenies and Rockefellers) is moronic beyond belief.


The men and women fighting the information war don't need little children mindlessly distracting people from THE ROOT CAUSE.

junction's picture

Uber will save us with its business model of calling employees independent contractors, underpricing its taxi services (it still collects 20%) and paying off politicians so it avoids most licensing requirements for taxis.  As the government ineptitude and lying in Michigan show concerning the Flint poison tapwater situation, regulatory agencies at all levels are run by liars and incompetents who are tunnel-visioned.  Uber knows it can get away with murder and is doing just that in places like New York City, where medallion taxi owners are going bust as the price of their "hack" medallions plunges (after a ten year spike in value). 

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Jan 28, 2016 9:49 AM

"Durable goods" is an oxymoron these days.

I'm tired of buying shit, so I don't anymore.

new game's picture

what you say is so true, because the class that can afford to buy shit have all the shit they need.


gaoptimize's picture

I've become more interested in simple, resiliant, and sustainable goods.

khnum's picture

Maybe if Walmart tanks they'll replace it with facebook,thats what happened in 2008 if you dont like what you see swap it out of the index.

Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Emergency rate cut

Rally time!!


Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

The US economy doesnt run on durable goods.  Hey, look over there - Facebook!

El_Puerco's picture

It was all Here..


http://bit.ly/1TPQQAr }


But you People  believe was a Funny JOKE!.. 


Humanity is in Trouble...


abyssinian's picture

But the Russians are willing to lower oil productions, and Facebook make billions on ads. we are saved! 

surf0766's picture

The progressive government will never ever ever tell the sheep they are in a recession under their Dear Leader. They will hid this for the next 13 months


Jason T's picture

not much goods are durable these days....  

unless  you have a speed queen washer and dryer, all others are non-durable 

Killdo's picture

my made in Yugoslavia washing machine from mid 70s still works perfectly. As long as I run the spinning cycle twice - it washes better than the 1 year old washng machiine I have in San Francisco. 

innertrader's picture

ALL of the Chinese and Mexican imported products are junk, period!!!  Makes me want to start manufacturing something.... until I start thinking about the FEDs all over my ass!!!

moneylover3's picture

Back to Flipping Burgers

jubber's picture

using Oil now to ramp the markets now,everytime this has tried to rollover today Oil magically ramps

madbraz's picture

european yields crash on the news, ours not at all.  back in the day, such news would cause our yields to drop 10-15 bps on the spot.  now that the NY FED has hedge funds operating in interest rate futures markets with algos and HFT - no such thing.  


not criminal, not at all. 

Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Janet "QE-infinitum" Yellen, surely there is moar that can be done!


khnum's picture

....obviously that damn weather again

gmak's picture

Bullish, baby.   UP is down and down is UP.  SOmeone should really change the sign on the parameter to the subroutine that the algos are using to decide bad news is good.


Either that or we have a human hunt for stops into the open so that they can unload a big bunch of crap into the chaos - or even go short before things plunge back down.

scubapro's picture


  magic 8 ball says:     'markets climb on hopes of more stimulus'

2thepeople's picture

But the jobs numbers just get better and better. Where's the connection??

Waitresses and bartenders must have stopped buying new appliances for their new homes. How else could home sales also stay strong and durable goods slip.

It's too early to drink.

gmak's picture

Not too early in Asia.  Bottoms up, virtually.

buzzsaw99's picture

if we give the billionaires MOAR then they will trickle down on us. it's called the wealth effect [/SARCASM]

khnum's picture

the top 1 percent now own more than the bottom 90 per cent,thats what happens when National Socialism replaces capitalism

sharonsj's picture

When did national socialism replace capitalism?  Boy, are you confused.  What we have now is global capitalism controlled by the super-rch.

iggenFlot's picture
iggenFlot (not verified) Jan 28, 2016 10:01 AM

Zero Hedge has been screaming for YEARS that the next recession is JUST AROUND THE CORNER!

Eventually, even ZH gets to be right.

Racer's picture

Yes it might improve to a recession instead of a depression

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) iggenFlot Jan 28, 2016 10:14 AM

Yes, and they will continue to do so right thru the next market bottom and ensuing move to new highs!

Its called "Stopped Clock" forecasting.  Just know when to deviate and you'll cop serious coin!

Be the 1%.

Racer's picture

And.... the "market" loved it

scubapro's picture



notice the decline in 2012....this time period stands out on many many charts.  the result was QE3.    the current downturn is faced with Tightening.    but thats ok,  STocks for the long haul!  (the very very long haul)

Ronaldo's picture

There is not much that can be done at this point.  


The economy is in decline, buying is faltering, the industrial model of ever increasing production is meeting the reality of channel stuffing and over production and over supply.



youngman's picture

Durable goods no more..its Facebook...this is our future..do YOU know how to selfie....better learn

TheSecondLaw's picture

Textbook recovery.  Well done the Fed!

yogibear's picture

It's been a social network recovery. All the welfare folks have time to connect.
More time, more clicks and connections.

_RRR_'s picture

gmo said 2013 or 2014 spx will hit 2150 and then crash. how close they called this one

iggenFlot's picture
iggenFlot (not verified) Jan 28, 2016 10:21 AM

Stock futures are soaring now, proving that decent durable goods orders are completely unnecessary for a thriving bull market.

MFL8240's picture

Gold down and stocks up!  You figure!

scubapro's picture



....notice how the mystery seller of paper gold, has turned into the mystery buyer of oil futures?   its only been a handful of days...but were down while asia is open, and then climb into and during the US mkts.    someone noticed the pairing of oil and sp500.    it broke briefly yesterday....the next time it breaks or begins to have a lower correlation should spell the end of one of these bounces.

'if oilis up why arent stocks?'  or maybe ''stocks finally getting the message that cheap oil is good for the us'.    lets get these ready for hte teleprompter please.

MFL8240's picture

Was looking for the reason for higher stock prices, this must be it!

TheDanimal's picture

I'm seriously considering trying to write for a small, community newspaper to shed light on these issues and maybe wake some people up.  Smash some misconceptions and stigmas about homelessness.  Show people that this bullshit could happen to them, and it will become increasingly likely in the near future.  What do you guys think?  Could this be worthwhile? I promise I'll actually make it back to the page for this one to see what you say.  Internet access is a pain in the ass when you're homeless and the goddamn android operating system doesn't allow you to get monitor mode on your phone's wifi chip to crack people's shit.