Global Trade Collapsed In January: Bellwether South Korea Exports Crash "Most Since Lehman"

Tyler Durden's picture


As the first major exporting nation to report each month, all eyes and hopeful speculative capital was glued to tonight's South Korean trade data. After a brief respite in November, December's drop was worrisome, but January's just reported 18.5% crash - the most since the financial crisis - has only been seen during a US economic recession. Worse still, South Korean imports plunged over 20% in January as it appears crashing crude and cliff-diving freight indices are less about supply and more about demand (there is none) after all.

Annother red flag in the US recession looming camp...


Furthermore, with China accounting for around one quarter of South Korean exports - and following a 16.5% YoY plunge in December - tonight's headline data suggests January was a total disaster for the Chinese economy also... though later we will get the PMI data to explain everything.

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Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:07 | 7123026 db51
db51's picture

Is this a sign of bad things on the horizon?   Just thinking out loud here?   Green shoots?   

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:15 | 7123102 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Green shoots for days.

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:18 | 7123115 knukles
knukles's picture

This means rest of world not buying Korean exports.  Bad sign for Western economies.  Pass Kimchee

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:33 | 7123176 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Indeed ;)

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:42 | 7123213 CapnJackDaniel
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Tomorrow's headline: Most "Since Lehman" Lehman comparisons since first actual 'Since Lehman' 

Peak Lehman?

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:56 | 7123251 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

So bullish for Lehman and get you some Bear Stesrns.

Oh wait.

Not too much foreplay this time around.

Straight into full collpse.

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 23:08 | 7123585 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

sometimes I hate it when there's no foreplay

sometimes I hate it when there's too much foreplay

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:28 | 7123161 franzpick
franzpick's picture

The bad sign is - NO INCOMING SHIPS ON THE HORIZON. World trade is in collapse, first seen last Sep when So Korean Aug exports were reported DOWN 17%, a very large decline, followed later by India's exports minus 25%, a HUGE decline, and similar declines elsewhere. We are facing a global trade and economic world financial collapse, consciously ignored and unreported, hidden in plain sight, by the controlled print and broadcast media.

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 23:22 | 7123631 ZombieHuntclub
ZombieHuntclub's picture

The storm clouds are lining up. Everyone will get wet. The smart ones only a little..

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 21:15 | 7123103 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

No shit? Samsung reported profits down 40% last week. Maybe they were just peddling fiction

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 22:05 | 7123295 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

No blame it on the weather not world trade. No body wants to look at the reality that world trade has collapsed. The Great Reset has begun.The BDI index has been used since the  1700's and it ALWAYS shows a recession is about to happen. And in this case DEPRESSION 2. Wake up folks it hase collapse to 1980 levels.

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 22:44 | 7123468 kiwimail
kiwimail's picture

Whats a gold bug to do?  At this point I have 50% of my assets in PMs and the rest in cash.  I feel PMs will drop in price in a run of the mill recession and even more in a depression, so am hesitant to go all in. There should be a better opportunity to load up later. 

However, can the financial system withstand a global depression? Will we see a major bank fail? I would think prices will explode upward at the first rumours of a major banking problem (think Douche Bank) and there wont be any phys available.  What to do?  What to do?

Mon, 02/01/2016 - 02:20 | 7124072 InnVestuhrr
InnVestuhrr's picture

What to do?  What to do?

Get income-yielding safe assets, ie US treasuries - they are ALWAYS the go-to asset when TSHTF.

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 22:45 | 7123470 tool
tool's picture

Do those graph's show a splutter pattern or is it a splatter pattern

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 23:22 | 7123609 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture


- India's Exports Fall For 13 Straight Months
- Indonesia's Exports Decline Sharply In December
- China Imports Slid 8% and Exports Fell 1.4% In December
- Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports Falls More Than Expected In December
- Philippine Exports Fall In November
- Taiwan Export Orders Fall More Than Expected In December
- Taiwan Slips Into Recession In Q4
- Taiwan Dec Jobless Rate Rises More Than Expected
- Singapore Employment Logs Slowest Growth Since 2003
- Malaysia Jobless Rate Climbs In November

Sun, 01/31/2016 - 23:40 | 7123702 starman
starman's picture

Ordered a fng kitchen bench three months ago from Ballard's design!! 

No shipping notice yet! 

Nobody has warehouse stock anymore! 


Mon, 02/01/2016 - 01:42 | 7124005 Early Retirement
Early Retirement's picture

JIT (Hand -to-mouth) is a clear sign of recession.

Mon, 02/01/2016 - 03:42 | 7124168 rbianco3
rbianco3's picture

The United States was the economic heart of the world, and that heart just popped many big leaks. With inability to pump, everything comes to a stand still almost like the dark ages.

The singularity - it's coming oh crap.

Mon, 02/01/2016 - 04:24 | 7124208 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I was in Korea a while back and the rooms in the houses there are

tiny.The houses are heated by charcoal briquettes about the size of a

large coffee can with pencil sized holes running thru it.The hot air(toxic)

runs thru pipes under the floor.The charcoal is called "Ondol" and is a favorite

index of inflation.This does not do much for air quality in the cities.

The country pretty much exists on their exports.Nice intelligent people.

I strongly suspect political corruption is widespread though.

Oddly you will see very old willys jeeps still on the road.

Nothing gets casually thrown away over there.Not really a disposable society

in contrast to ours.

Mon, 02/01/2016 - 07:05 | 7124325 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Yep and add to that the capital city is just 35 miles from the border to insanity.

Just wait until the neighbor devalues their Yuano by 50%. The poor Koreans will be an a world of hurt. They will have to rename Seoul to Kimchi City...

Floor heating ain't so bad - the Romans loved it, but then again they had lots of slaves to keep it going. Hmm a glimpse of the future??

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