US Factory Orders Slide For 14 Consecutive Months As Inventory Ratio Soars To Recession Cycle Highs

Tyler Durden's picture

With the Services economy now catching down to Manufacturing's demise (in its lagged - not decoupled - manner), this morning's news that US Factory Orders tumbled 2.9% in December (worse than expected and the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2014) offers little hope for any bounce anytime soon. This is the 14th monthly drop in YoY factory orders - something has not happened outside of a broad US economic recession. Even more concerning is the surge in inventories-to-shipments to cycle highs seen in 2000 and 2008.



And inventories soar to cycle highs...


Still the excuses pile up... weather... foreign not domestic... services will save us (oh wait!)

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kotfare17's picture

Precisely as I've been predicting.


Unless rates hiked to 4% at minimum, the decline will be accelerated. Only aggressive rate hikes can save the economy, provided that oil stays at $40

buzzsaw99's picture

it's too late for rate hikes to do any good. the choice is moar pain now or extremely moar pain later. the latter will be chosen.

max2205's picture

but wait....we might be near the end of the non existant recession....yipy

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) max2205 Feb 4, 2016 10:17 AM

If more inventory equals more stuff, and more stuff equals more wealth, aren't we getting richer? Maybe I should get a consulting contract with the Fed with such wisdom!

corporatewhore's picture

that sounds hedonically right

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) corporatewhore Feb 4, 2016 11:21 AM

Markets are booming , once again, based on this great news...

tc06rtw's picture

 “The Obama Recession… ”
   That has a nice  “ring”  to it.
 (I’m sorry -- I take it back…     It’s Bush’s fault!)

indygo55's picture

From the window of the White House "Everything looks fine to me. Stop peddlin' fiction!"


new game's picture

QE IV be in the works, so, simply, you all punters, get ready, set, BTFD soooooooon...

mygameon's picture

From the Desk of the President


Memo:  Talking Points concerning Peddling Fiction from the SOTUS from the POTUS


This article is and similar articles that do not fit our narrative must be classified in the Library under Section 098


Please distribute to your entire organization.


Thought Police Czar

-Team Obama

kotfare17's picture

Personally, I think the "later" is no longer available

Chuckster's picture

Yo! Kotfare 17!

Great observation!  These here economic things can only be figured out in the class room....or so they would have you believe.

Mark Mywords's picture
Mark Mywords (not verified) buzzsaw99 Feb 4, 2016 10:14 AM

The problem is, that choice was possible in 2008. I said it then: A little pain now, a LOT of pain later.

Guess what? Here we are in 2016, and that "later" is now "now".

No more laters. Later is here now.

buzzsaw99's picture

imo the can can (i said can can, heh) be kicked for a few moar years.

Winston Churchill's picture

Maybe, but it seems they are now ready to 'pull it'.

Whats left doesn't even need help collapsing.

WWIII will cover it up.

Dg4884's picture

WW3 is getting harder to justify now that certain actors (namely Russia) are FUBAR'ing US efforts to start one.  Every living breathing individual is a step ahead of our incompetent administration and Fed.

bunch of retards!








Silver Bug's picture

But don't worry, the economy is great! Everything is peachy! Give me a break. Hopefully the man on the street will wake up sooner rather than later. I won't hold my breath.

Truth Eater's picture

Save the economy?


She's dead Jim.

Emergency Ward's picture

beep, beep, ....bedeep, ...eep, ...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Enceladus's picture

Mike Maloney this morning, FED needed 20billion this month any thoughts?

847328_3527's picture

Perhaps the fed gave it to DB or CS. They have secretly handed money to foreign banks many time sin the past, so why not now? Another hedge fund closed shop today citing "no liquidity" as the cause.


The debt -default black hole seems to be sucking everything into it, despite the 'robust recovery' cited by the Messiah.

corporatewhore's picture

I thought this was taking place as our orders have dropped 30% yoy and the phones aren't ringing.

madbraz's picture

yields naturally drop on the news (treasury prices up) only to be violently pushed the other way (against the current) by some knife catching in reverse force who is not afraid to deploy and risk seemingly endless capital.


good morning bill dudley.  feeling powerful today, huh?  just another day for the 300+ trading desk you preside over.

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) Feb 4, 2016 10:15 AM

Market likes what it sees, may need to get new prescription lenses...

Chuckster's picture

Thanks God we have all this good news!  It propels the market higher.

firstdivision's picture

That explains it.  Here I was thinking that copper has been getting manipulated by certain instituions to prevent them from blowing up on their positions.

Libertati Aut Ad Mortem's picture
Libertati Aut Ad Mortem (not verified) Feb 4, 2016 10:29 AM

An important revelation and statistic Mr. Durden, but might you disaggregate this decline in mfg between the reduction in export market demand, ie Cateripillar orders, due to a strengthening dollar and/or decline in demand due to softening in demand for oil and gas equipment, or both?   I think you will find the answer is in both, but the degree of which is each is significant and revealing. 

iggenFlot's picture
iggenFlot (not verified) Feb 4, 2016 10:38 AM

Stocks up over 100 because of the dreadful economic data. Makes perfect sense if you're a blithering idiot.

Mark Mywords's picture
Mark Mywords (not verified) Feb 4, 2016 10:42 AM

If you are bewildered by today's "bad news is good news" reaction in the equity markets here in the states, need I remind you of the past seven years?

Have you forgotten that equity markets are not markets? They are policy tools.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled bullshit rally, already in progress.

E.Shackle.Ton's picture

Back to "bad news is good news."  Hopes another round of QE?

Chuckster's picture

When will Janet strap it on?

idahosinker's picture

Notice how the plung is no were near as bad as in past years.

We dont have any factories, thats why.

Goldbugger's picture

Peter Schiff nailed it again. We are already in another recession/depression. This next one will be worse than the 08' crash.

The derivatives have grown in the Trillions and Commodites have collapsed and the BDI index is at at 30 year low. The $TRANS are telling us what's to come next. NO SHIPPING ANYWHERE, inventories are full and nobody is buying the shit.

Emergency Ward's picture



Reaganomics to Obamanomics
Trickling up and down
pissing golden parachutes.