Goldman Capitulates: Closes Out 5 Of Its 6 Top Trades For 2016 With A Loss

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in November, for the convenience of those "who can't wait to take the other side of Goldman's clients, and thus the same side of Goldman's prop desk" we previewed Goldman's "Top 6 Trades for 2016."

Naturally, we explicitly stated that the "the best trades for 2016 will be to... do the opposite of the Top 6 trade recos" for obvious reasons.

It's time for an update, because just 40 full days into 2016, not only has Goldman been closed out on its Top Trade for 2016, namely being long the USD vs both the Yen and the Euro, but virtually all of its other trades: according to a just released update, Goldman has just been stopped out - with a loss - on 5 of its 6 top trades for 2016.

From Goldman:

  • Close long USD against an equally weighted basket of EUR and JPY on 9 February 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 at 100, with a potential loss of around 5%.
  • Close long 10-year US break-even inflation (USGGBE10 Index) on January 18, opened on 10 November 2015 at 1.60%, with a target 2.0% and a stop on a close below 1.40%, with a potential loss of 21bp.
  • Close long an equally-weighted basket of MXN and RUB versus short an equally-weighted basket of ZAR and CLP on 21 January 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 an entry level of 100, with a potential loss of 6.6% including carry.
  • Close long 5-year 5-year forward Italian sovereign yields vs short 5-year 5-year forward German yields on 9 February 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 with an entry level of 160bp and a stop loss of 190bp. The spread is currently at 219bp. The potential loss is 49bp.
  • Close long large cap US banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500 on 11 January 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 at 100, with a potential loss of 5.4%.
  • Stay long a basket of 48 non-commodity exporters (GSEMEXTD Index) and short a basket of 50 EM banks stocks (GSEMBNKS Index), opened on 19 November 2015 at 1.12. We will monitor this trade as the ratio between the two indices, with a target of 1.30 and a stop-loss of 1.04, currently at 1.17.

And just like that anyone who followed our suggestion to do the opposite of Goldman's trade recommendations can take the rest of the year ago.

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Grandad Grumps's picture

Did Goldman lose amy significant money with their top trades or were they just muppet bait?

Looney's picture

Awww… Poor puppets!

Where’s the freaking Humane Society or PETA when you need’em? ;-)


philipat's picture

Just proves the point. The Squid NEVER gives any useful advice for free to Muppets. In fact, they were probably on the other side of all these trades....

Mr. Universe's picture

Why are there so many songs about Rainbows? and what's on the other side.

pods's picture

Maybe I am just 12 on the inside but I always chuckle when I see BOHICA Kermit.


KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) pods Feb 9, 2016 11:53 AM

It should be quite clear by now that GoldJEW Sachs policy is to put all 'idiot goy' client account money into these losing trades (whereby, they can say 'Oh SCHMUCKS!' we made a bad call here, sorry!)...

undertow1141's picture

Goldman Sux tip of the day: Buy this list of shit, we would never do this, but for you, yes.

Jtrillian's picture

Take THAT you muppet fuc&ers.  Don't feel so smart now do you? 

Unless you shorted against your own clients like you did in 2008.  In that case you are probably feeling a little hot.  That is your soul burning in hell. 

No love for Goldman here... or JPM or Citadel or any of the banksters.  You reap what you sow. 


NorthernPike's picture

I agree, that is their role in the Eco System, Just as the goy role is to sing. "Do it again" with a big smile on their face while being screwed.

Donald J. Trump's picture

They seem to be giving free advice if you know how to read it, like Tyler says, do the opposite.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Last time around GS was in worse shape than Lehman, but Lehman wasn't a "team player" and GS was Wall streets favorite cabin boy. This time JPM will throw them over the side as soon as needed to chum the waters.......

asteroids's picture

No No No No No.... GS is just "making a market" for these trades /sarc

buzzsaw99's picture

the squid doesn't lose. EVER.

Latina Lover's picture
Goldman Clients Capitulates: Closes Out Five Of Its Six Top Trades For 2016 With A Loss

There fixed it for you.

BTW, I wonder WHO took the other sides of those trades, LOL.

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Why the Balsach's prop trading desks, of course!

Ghordius's picture

of course the Squid's trading desks. including those that should not exist

look, there is a kind of misunderstanding about those muppets of GS. I just recently talked to a few of them, and asked this kind of questions. they don't... care

being a client of the Vampire Squid Firmly Attached On The Face Of Humanity is a kind of.... "right" golf club membership, to many of them. it's for... bragging rights

which leads me to even question if the Squid is really fleecing them, or just making a lot of noise to cover up

there is a reason why it's nick is "the Squid". plenty of ink in the water hiding what it's tentacles are really doing

just a kind of educated guess, note


Crash Overide's picture

The Squid Desk...

haha pincha muppets.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Every boardroom in America is trying to follow the script, this morning, and pump up their own and each others stocks.

Look what we have become: pathetic masturbators.

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

How much of the muppets money did the Golden Balsach's prop traders capture with these 6 easy steps?

TomGa's picture

Funny. Goldman had to put Kostin on CNBC this morning to prevent panic. BS artistry at its finest.

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

The fix was in.  Half the cockroaches knew the Fed was gonna ramp in the first 2 hours of trading.  So the Balsack figures it should gain some credibility with the sheeple (to fatten them up for later muppetry from the same Kostin mouth) and tell 'em not to panic.

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

How many billions will the German gubmint pay Goldman after the bailout of DB? Ya know, cuz of law and all that. Contracts and stuff.

NoWayJose's picture

Here's another trade that is NOT working for Goldman - Chelsea in the White House versus Ivanka!

cowdiddly's picture

Well Hillary has to get her money to run from somewhere.

Chippewa Partners's picture

Kostin should be calling the trades for the Mother Squid.   They would lose a hell of a lot more.

xrxs's picture

Muppet Flambe? Again?

Dr. Engali's picture

Now for our next six recommendations.....


Looks like Blankfein's cancer is spreading rapidly to all areas of investment now.

SillyWabbits's picture

What about the other side of the trade Goldman was on?

With Goldman: the right hand knows exactly what the left hand is doing!

Ghordius's picture

SillyWabbits, correction: the third tentacle on the right knows exactly what the fourth tentacle on the left is doing


Ghordius's picture

SillyWabbits, correction: the third tentacle on the right knows exactly what the fourth tentacle on the left is doing


Monetas's picture
Monetas (not verified) Feb 9, 2016 10:10 AM

The Do Chen Roller Bearing recovery ... is over !

ThisIsBob's picture

I'm calling a bottom, then.

Monetas's picture
Monetas (not verified) Feb 9, 2016 10:13 AM

Our collective need .... to have a negro President .... was so great .... an Obama was sucked in .... to fill the void ?

Victor999's picture

Goldman- Saks should get out of investment banking and stick to its strengths - internaional criminal activity.

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Feb 9, 2016 10:15 AM

Kermit says it best.

Panic Mode's picture

Who cares? It's muppets' money according to Goldman.

EddieLomax's picture

Someone needs to buy Goldman a subscription to Gartman's letter, that should help them make it 6 out of 6 trades.

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) Feb 9, 2016 10:42 AM

Even my paper trading account is at zero based on taking Goldman's advice :(

silverer's picture

But, but...what did Gartman say?

Iam Yue2's picture

Bring back Stolper!!

Pabloallen's picture

The PPT does not have to push so hard in the PM ..............

Strelnikov's picture

So, better than their average then.

knukles's picture

Tyler ....  That picture's just wrong.

silverer's picture

Kermit is just a symbol, getting filled in for Goldman. I mean, filling in for ...

Squid Viscous's picture

is that a picture of Obozo from halloween, wearing the Kermit costume for Reggie again?

NEOSERF's picture

Either way, the fact that they were shilling their smaller retail clients for the larger ones or that even GS can't figure out how to trade anymore is worrisome.  However, I do expect to see the perfect (profitable) trading day record is 11,342 straight days without a loss is still intact.

silverer's picture

Well, that being the case, we are beyond peddling fiction, aren't we?