Is The US Leading Saudi Arabia Down The Kuwaiti Invasion Road?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by JC Collins via PhilosophyOfMetrics.com,

For the first time in a long time I feel concerned and worried about the prospect of war.  The reaction of Saudi Arabia to the Russian intervention in Syria has always been the wild card in the shifting geopolitical power base in the Middle East.  Turkey and Israel, along with Saudi Arabia are the three countries with the most to lose because of a strong alliance between Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.

These three traditional American allies have been accustomed to Western support in regards to their own specific regional goals and ambitions.  This support has been so staunch and counterproductive to regional stability that the growing comfort and alliance between Iran and the US should be both confusing and worrisome to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

On the one hand the US is making agreements with Iran and lifting sanction while on the other hand it is indirectly supporting Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s proxy war against Syria. A war which Iran, along with the support of Russia and Hezbollah, are resisting and countering with massive aerial and ground support.

This contradiction is suggestive of another and more complex strategy which may be unfolding in the Middle East.  A strategy which is beginning to look familiar.

Back in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait the state of the Iraqi dictator’s mind was both paranoid and desperate.  The once American supported leader at some point felt he would have the blessings of the US administration in his regional adventures.  The controversy surrounding US Ambassador April Glaspie’s comments to Saddam regarding having no interest in Iraq’s border dispute with Kuwait, and her later vindication by the release of a memo, is somewhat irrelevant as Saddam obviously felt the support was there.  Whether through direct and straightforward communication or through trickery.

Once Iraq invaded Kuwait the Western press mobilized and a massive propaganda campaign against Saddam Hussein commenced.  The once American ally was isolated on the world stage and suffered one of the worst military defeats in the history of warfare.

The interesting parallels between 1990 Iraq and 2016 Saudi Arabia are unlikely to be coincidental.  Both have militaries which were built with American equipment and support.  Both were used by American interests to counter Iranian regional ambitions.  Both supported the sale of their domestically produced crude exports in US dollars.

In support of this conclusion we find the recent statement of Iranian Armed Forces’ Chief of Staff Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, who stated:

“US Defense Secretary [Ashton Carter] is supporting and provoking the House of Saud to march to the war [in Syria]. This is an indication that he is at a loss.  It also proves beyond any doubt that they have failed.”

Are we to assume that the US strategy in the Middle East is at a standstill?  I seriously doubt that and America’s agreements with Iran would support something else being afoot.  America may be misleading Saudi Arabia down the same road as it led Saddam Hussein in the buildup to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Except this time the aerial bombardment will come from Russian forces and the mop up crew will consist of Iranian and Hezbollah forces.

Further support for this conclusion comes from the recent comments of John Kerry where he said “what do you want me to do, go to war with the Russians?

Why is there this disconnect and contradictory approach within the American government?  I seriously doubt that it is caused by opposing factions within the US establishment.  A potential war of this magnitude will not be left to the whims of domestic bantering and browbeating.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both pushed into a corner over the shifting power base in the Middle East.  The paranoia and desperation, like Saddam in 1990, could very well cause both countries to commit to the very act of aggression which will lead to their ultimate demise and removal from a position of influence within the region.

Are we on the verge of another war?

Perhaps.  But I still content that it will be a regional war only and that the objective of that war will be the removal of once American allies who have been funded and provided with the equipment which will now have to be destroyed and removed from the region.

In the post The Coming Islamic Revolution in Saudi Arabia I wrote the following:

“There is a growing consensus that there may be a division within the Saud family itself.  This is the one thing that could very well finally topple the monarchy.  The House of Saud could be tearing itself apart with opposing strategies.”

 

“One strategy is based on maintaining socioeconomic and military control over the country, and working with other nations, such as China, on developing business contracts which are not based on crude, but on other sources of revenue which can be gained from alternative energy sources, such as nuclear.”

 

“The other strategy involves a conclusion where the Shiite majority which is building up around Saudi Arabia will eventually incite revolution within the country as the conflict in Yemen spreads further across the border, and deeper regional integration between the Shiite players takes place.”

It is plausible that an overthrow of the House of Saud would benefit the American strategy against China.  The divisions within Saudi Arabia make it ripe for such a strategy explained above.  Especially if there is a faction of the House of Saud which would be willing to take control of what remains and fit within a larger Middle Eastern regional alliance.

A negotiation with China regarding crude sales in renminbi as discussed in the post The Petro-Renminbi Emerges, could very well be the macro-geopolitical and macro-socioeconomic strategy which is unfolding here.  Such an outcome would benefit both China and Russia, while also maintaining a check on Iranian regional ambitions.

To think that the US would enter into a major war against Russia over Saudi Arabia is fraught with mindlessness and madness.  The more probable strategy is the overthrow of the House of Saud, or at least a complete restructuring of the countries place within the Middle East.

Will Saudi Arabia take the bait and invade Syria?  I think we may know that answer sooner rather than later. 

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Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:40 | 7169032 skinwalker
skinwalker's picture

I think we should call in the dog catcher. Knawmean? 

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:43 | 7169045 junction
junction's picture

It is only fair that the Saudis get repaid in full for destroying the World Trade Center by having their country get torn apart by war.  Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:44 | 7169057 FatTony7915726
FatTony7915726's picture

Here we go again, more stories of babies in incubators.........

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:56 | 7169114 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Told in perfect un-accented english.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 02:11 | 7169517 Stainless Steel Rat
Stainless Steel Rat's picture

Bullish!!! :-D

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 02:14 | 7169527 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

would saudi arabia fall for the modern equivalent of the infamous April Glaspie wink?

They certainly seem desperate - and trusting - enough. 

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 02:31 | 7169575 Veriton
Veriton's picture

Geopolitics is comic book narration for the public. If you want to know what's going on, follow the Golden Rule... Globalist Prophecy Watch: Update 4 – How 2016’s Gog/Magog War will unfold

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 04:37 | 7169742 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Hey, wait! This is great! We can sell them there Abrahms tanks to both sides! Booyah! BULLISH!!!

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 08:24 | 7169992 fx
fx's picture

This analysis makes no sense. Why should the US weaken their two major, longterm islamist allies in the region? Rather, they want to provoke Russia into more action. It comes handy that Turkey's erdogan sees his ottoman empire resurrection plans threatened. Gameplan: Turkish (and later maybe saudi) troops invade nothern syria, setting up "refugee protection areas" (i.e. safe bases for the Turkey-sponsored terrorists) thereby also hunting down the Kurdish troops. If Syria/russia are incapable/unwilling to immediately stop and crack down on those Turkish troops they will slowly advance and try to reopen terrorists' supply lines to Aleppo. Expect Nato military "advisors" and US special ops to be stationed immediately in those areas to make it ever harder for Russia/Syria to attack without giving the US/NATO every excuse they want to "protect the NATO member Turkey against the Russian aggression". Will be tough choices ahead for Putin.If he doesn't hit those Turkish invaders very hard very quickly, BEFORE they can set up shop and before NATO reinforcements can arrive, the Syrian war will become an endless nightmare for everybody involved. NATO will then push ever further knowing fully well that Putin so far did everything imagineable to NOT give NATO any pretext on which to openly start a war with Russia. Question is, are the thiny Russian combat forces and their Iranian and Syrian allies in the Region capable of stopping a turkish invasion right from the start - where likely tens of tousands of well trained troops with hundreds of battle tanks, aircraft, artillery helicopters etc. will be involved?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 09:11 | 7170248 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

Maybe to drive up the price of oil?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 09:11 | 7170249 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

Maybe to drive up the price of oil?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 11:22 | 7170518 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

Obama 3rd Term... coming up

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 04:59 | 7169762 dogfish
dogfish's picture

What is this all about,might be a setup.US A-10s bomb Aleppo.

https://www.rt.com/news/332109-russian-jets-isis-warlords/

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 04:25 | 7169732 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

What will it be called this time?  Operation Desert Panic?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 04:39 | 7169744 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Operation Enduring Dead Muslims every-fuckin'-where? It does have a catchy ring to it.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:06 | 7169816 Ofelas
Ofelas's picture

Invade and prepar for a lot of glass!

3% of the Russian nuclear arsenal is sufficient to trigger a Nuclear Winter!

If these idiots in Riad, Istanbul, Washington and elsewhere think Russia is going to stand idle then they need to get a very quick lesson in history

 

 

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 07:50 | 7169936 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Hence the name of USSA's operation in Syria: Operation Enduring Clusterfuck

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 08:28 | 7170054 fx
fx's picture

It will likely be called operation "Cold Turkey"

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:06 | 7169817 Ofelas
Ofelas's picture

Invade and prepar for a lot of glass!

3% of the Russian nuclear arsenal is sufficient to trigger a Nuclear Winter!

If these idiots in Riad, Istanbul, Washington and elsewhere think Russia is going to stand idle then they need to get a very quick lesson in history

 

 

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:31 | 7169843 barroter
barroter's picture

Operation Desert F. Up

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 07:11 | 7169891 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Junxn, forgot to mention KSA's partners in 9/11, Mossad, Neocons, and Zionists.

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:43 | 7169037 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

Speaking of invasions, looks like Malheur is going down - live thread:

https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2016/02/10/breaking-open-thread/

Looks like a case of 'something's going on over here, don't pay attention to that over there...'

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:04 | 7169162 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Trump or someone should speak up that Oregon is all about the Clintons "selling" the ranchers property to a Russian uranium company.  The ranchers were set up to steal their land. Just like Bundy and the Chinese etc.

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:43 | 7169047 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

war is the only thing that can bring price up...oil is getting NIRPed... http://news.forexlive.com/!/for-the-oil-traders-3-traders-confirm-deals-at-negative-250-and-275-bbl-20160211

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:55 | 7169066 Victory_Garden
Victory_Garden's picture

Or, does a bear fart in the woods wishing it could be a Bull?

Who profits in War?

PNAC:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article1665.htm

 

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:53 | 7169101 roisaber
roisaber's picture

The USA will eventually find the policy failure it's looking for. The only question is how many casualties there will be.

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:55 | 7169105 booboo
booboo's picture

"Both have militaries which were built with American equipment and support."

Really? While we no doubt supplied Iraq with chemical weapons to fight Iran to a stalemate (which puts to bed the bullshit about if they had weapons of mass destruction" yes of course they did, we gave the fucking gas to them)

but is the author that sloppy to not have notice that Iraq had French Mirage and Russian MIG aircraft? T-60 and T-72 Russian Tanks, Soviet SCUD missiles? AK47's and Russian made medium and heavy machine guns? Good grief, what is he 8 years old?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:29 | 7169222 Jacksons Ghost
Jacksons Ghost's picture

Correct

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:40 | 7169852 not dead yet
not dead yet's picture

Gas is not considered a weapon of mass destruction. Gas destroys nothing and can kill unprepared people but cannot compare to deaths by a fuel air bomb or a nuke the real weapons of mass destruction.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:01 | 7169118 Lost in translation
Lost in translation's picture

When SA invaded Yemen I began to think it would backfire on House of Saud and one day result in their overthrow. I still think so.

In Yemen, the Saudis are standing in a huge puddle of liquid poop but they don't have the shoes for it.

Invading Syria will likely be the end of SA as we've always known it.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 03:23 | 7169657 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

good riddance.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 04:23 | 7169730 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Long Dancing Israelis, if SA goes.  EVERYONE will be better off. Including their goats.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:33 | 7169844 barroter
barroter's picture

The goats will no longer need rape kits...

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:07 | 7169818 Ofelas
Ofelas's picture

Yup, and I hope the Yemites take them down since our governments will not (and cannot due to the Petrodollar) Time to end this charade

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:58 | 7169119 Kprime
Kprime's picture

are we on the road to another war?  Of course we are.  the fucking stealing, lying, cheating, raping US government and the elites want to create a distraction while the financial world collapses and they finish raping the US citizens.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:00 | 7169121 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Suppose they gave a war and hardly anybody came.
The government would spread the news that we're all insane.
Suppose the times have changed so much we couldn't follow rules.
They'd take the stake and brand us 'generation of fools'.

Suppose they planned a war and everybody stayed home.
They'd fall apart, and that would start frustration to the bone.
They gave a war, nobody came - imagine all the fuss!
They'd have to send themselves instead of sending us.

- Scatman John

Wed, 02/10/2016 - 23:58 | 7169125 matermaker
matermaker's picture

Those countries also produce no food, have little water and have become overgrown petulent vassles of the petrodollar since they quite living in tents.  There is ZERO appetite in either the US or the EU to go to war with Russia, Iran and the rest of the Shia.   The NATO pact says they will help defend any member nation if attacked.  It's an entirely different thing if a member attacks a non member hanging out with others.  If Turkey and SA pick a fight down there, I seriously doubt at least the US will pick sides.    One reason being the draft will not work, this time.  Besides the immediate backlash, about half of americans are obese and we've been fighting over there for 16 years.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 01:02 | 7169351 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

It would be interesting to see any recruitment data for the US armed forces. To make any meaningful interpretation of data, one  would have to factor in the economy, the degree of handouts to the unemployed, as unemployment certainly leads to enlisting in the military.

But my question actually is directed towards finding out if the US military is stepping up recruitment efforts or not. If it is, then are they anticipating war or...are they "cleaning house" to get rid of veterans who have seen the folly of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and need new naive recruits with no knowledge of what they are potentially getting themselves into. 

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 01:19 | 7169405 Yukon Cornholius
Yukon Cornholius's picture

And many Americans of fighting age have neck, face or/and hand tattoos, which automatically disqualifies them from service. Who knew Fred durst might have saved American lives?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 06:37 | 7169851 barroter
barroter's picture

Die for Saudi Freedom? I doubt very few Americans will want to do that. They view the Sauds as goat f-kers that go around lopping heads off for casting spells.  I don't care how white their sheets are or how cool their Raybans look, American think they're animals.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 07:01 | 7169879 not dead yet
not dead yet's picture

Saudi Arabia exports food and supplies 30% of it's needs. In Iraq one third of the population works in agriculture. Syria was heavily into food production until the recent festivities. Egypt was once called the breadbasket of the ME but due to mismanagment and IMF dictates they import some food. Qaddafi built the Great Man Made River to bring water from under the desert to aggressively increase agriculture and be less relient on imports. As per their usual tactics NATO as they have done in other countries bombed many of the pumping stations for that water. Iraq, Egypt, and Syria have dams for irrigation. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States do massive desalinization to grow crops and waste water on lawns, pools, people, and projects. To say they have no food or water is pure ignorance.

Turkey may have a chance to enter the fray as they border with Syria. Saudi Arabia does not border and is a considerable distance away and it would take a huge effort to get anything but a token force and their equipment into Syria.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 20:46 | 7173977 matermaker
matermaker's picture

Pure ignorance, eh?  We're not talking about Iraq, they have what's left of the fertile crescent.  We're talking SA.  IT IS A DESERT.  They are currently buying land in the US to grow wheat because they have used up all the water in the wells they've already drilled.  Saudi Arabia is certainly not much of an exporter of foods and while I"m glad they can grow 1/3rd of the food they need, I'm pretty sure that 30% is added up with the out of country land they are growing crops in.  As in California.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:00 | 7169132 Chuckster
Chuckster's picture

This is a whole new concept and I can't say it's wrong but...I would have to accept the fact that our government has enough intelligence to do this.  I did see the woman from the state dept. referenced in the article on TV expressly saying that she told Saddam it was O.K. to invade Kuwait.  We would do nothing.  Saddam was baited by the USA government.  That smelled like something George W. would do.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:04 | 7169156 Lost in translation
Lost in translation's picture

FDR too.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:18 | 7169206 booboo
booboo's picture

You mean George HW Bush? Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 there professor.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:36 | 7169260 Chuckster
Chuckster's picture

No...this sounded more like something George W. would do.  I think George H. was a more meek reserved kind of guy.  George W. probably had a say in things back then.  George W. was a pompous brainless ass.  He did some outlandish things if you think back about it.

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 15:04 | 7172091 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

Sorry professor booboo, that invasion was in response to repeated attempts to get the Kuwaitis to stop drilling 20+ miles into Iraq and stealing oil from their reserves.

 

Ya THINK the Kuwaitis would have done this on their own?  Or did SOMEONE give them a wink and a nudge?

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 02:18 | 7169534 any_mouse
any_mouse's picture

Err. Something that GHWB, Dubya's daddy, would definitely do as lifelong CIA. Like Lucifer, GHWB was in Dallas 1963. 1989-1993 GHWB was POTUS and announced the New World Order when the armies gathered in the desert to liberate Kuwait.

 

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 18:25 | 7173245 Gonzogal
Gonzogal's picture

"I would have to accept the fact that our government has enough intelligence to do this."

War after war, genocide after genocide, the Westerners are still playing dumb! They refuse to acknowledge whet they are doing to the world.

Millions of human lives lost in the Middle East, tens of millions of men, women and children murdered by imperialism in Africa? Who cares? Who bloody cares? The Westerner eats, copu lates, sometimes works and then he either tries to enjoy his life, or he fights for much better benefits... for himself, or for herself. Rest of the world is there to provide or to subsidize such benefits; that is all.

The dumber they, the Westerners, are, the more self-assured and arrogant their worldview. You see people like this in a pub, but you also see them controlling all international organizations, even the UN agencies. Those big, beefy, tall Germans, Scandinavians, North Americans, Brits - speaking with air of a stone superiority to those “agile Asians, clumsy Africans and insecure Arabs”! Telling them what to do, how to run their societies. Absolutely no shame! You would never hear them lamenting: “We f’ed up the world. We raped the planet. We are still doing it...” Never.

No apologies, no remorse, no grand plan for how to reverse the flow, how to return at least some part of what had been stolen and how to stop murdering

Thu, 02/11/2016 - 00:04 | 7169137 David Wooten
David Wooten's picture

This sounds positive.  The US doesn't need the Saudis to keep the oil supply up and price low anymore - quite the opposite.  Why risk a nuclear war to save them?  And even the Western press has turned against Erdogan.  That Atatürk dam looks more and more like a sitting turkey.

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