Peter Pan Is Dead - Japanese Economy Stalls For 6th Time In 6 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We just cannot wait for the next time either Abe or Kuroda utter the following string of words "[stimulus - insert any combination of equity buying, bond buying, money printing, and NIRP] is having the desired effect." For the sixth time in the last 6 years, GDP growth has once again turned negative and while the BoJ balance sheet continues to balloon, so the nation's economy (as measure by GDP) is now shrinking as Peter Pan policy is officially dead.

With 3 of the top 4 forecasters already suggesting Japanese GDP growth would be worse than the median estimate of -0.2% growth, fairy-tales were all they had left... Nearly a year ago, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda described the unlikely inspiration behind Japan’s unprecedented monetary stimulus: Peter Pan.

I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it’.

 

Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions.

And now, Pan is dead... this is the 6th negative GDP growth period since 2010... printing a 0.4% QoQ drop against the -0.2% growth expectation...

This is the biggest SAAR GDP drop (down 1.4%) since Q2 2014 - right before Kuroda unleashed QQE2 once The Fed had left the money-printing business.

And in case anyone wanted it made any clearer just what an utter farce Abenomics has been...

 

But it gets much worse...

Private Consumption tumbled more than expected...

  • *JAPAN 4Q PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FELL 0.8% Q/Q

The biggest drop since Q2 2014.

Of course - if you are an "enabler" or "central planner" this is great news - just a little more NIRP and just a little more QQE and everything will be fine... what a joke!

 

*  *  *

And in just a few hours we get to see China's made-up trade data.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:02 | 7186143 jubber
jubber's picture

Nikkei up fucking 4% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:07 | 7186157 Racer
Racer's picture

That was before the news I think, but bad news has the "market" drooling for more of the same Pavlovian stimulus

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:20 | 7186193 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

The House of Yen just needs to turn a few more tricks...

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:30 | 7186210 old naughty
old naughty's picture

No, Peter Pan id not dead... Kuroda Japan is.

Apologize for using his name, or Peter Pan and his friends will come out of neverland to wack his ass.

Give sheeples back their childhood idol. They still want to fly...

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:45 | 7186252 booboo
booboo's picture

"Tick Tock Peter"

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 21:11 | 7186314 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

And the news is....bullish!

Long live the farce.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 22:56 | 7186604 knukles
knukles's picture

Suck on this news, Krugman.
His proscription simply will be "MOAR!"

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 21:18 | 7186334 tunnelvizn
tunnelvizn's picture

Tock Tock Croc(k) - fify

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:07 | 7186160 offwirenews
offwirenews's picture

Seriously wtf

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:40 | 7186236 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Markets have nothing to do with the economy.  

When we're alll dead and gone there will still be computers endlessly spoofing stock trades and selling our debt back and forth between eachother.  Egyptians left the pyramids, Romans left the Colliseum, roads and aqueducts.  We will leave our debt.  Future historians will marvel at it's complex architecture but have no idea what it was for.

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 03:29 | 7187022 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

What an amazing fucking image, No Debt. Wish I could upvote you more than once.

We will leave our debt....

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 03:29 | 7187023 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

dupe

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:13 | 7186174 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Don't panic. Just the annual recession. What's not to like about the new normal?

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:18 | 7186186 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

better entry for new shorts.  ram it down Abe and Kurod's throats.

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 00:56 | 7186868 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Japan's  economy in collapse, thanks to the Japanese Central Bank, so what do they do in the last throes of their desperate acts?  Run up the stock market 6.5% -- as if this will reverse the decades of destruction that they have caused.   Hope Tokyo burns from the blaze of torches from the screwed citizenry, and that these corrupt central bankers are properly crucified in the square. 

 

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:01 | 7186146 Osmium
Osmium's picture

And on top of that, young Japanese women don't like porking.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:40 | 7186242 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

They'll soon rediscover the prime function, whether they like it or not.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:02 | 7186151 battlestargalactica
battlestargalactica's picture

Long potassium iodide and human-like sex dolls.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:10 | 7186153 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NIRP creates a funny thing. There's no incentive to work anymore!!!!

Everything is free!!! Accept a 5 million dollar loan and you get 200K a year for free!

And you'd be a patriot!

 

And that's when the system crashes. Why bother waisting time on anything when you can get something for free without doing anything for it?

Japan and Europe are in a spiral down with no chance of escape from now on.

Your currency becomes worthless with NIRP.

 

And that's the final "HELICOPTER MONEY".

Everybody loses. You can't even get a coffee for it because there's nobody to serve you coffee as they all have enough money to sit on their ass.

And then you starve. With a lot of money.

NIRP has the same effects as hyperinflation after a very short while and can make your GDP fall to zero as everybody is a millionaire on paper untill they die of starvation.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:47 | 7186257 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

am flying out of Tokyo in a few hours.  just spoke to some friends here about the possibility of their bank accunts gong NIRP.  they didn't have any fucking problem with it.  they won't be taking their money out of the banks if it happens.  their logic was this:  they have grown up over the last few decades living in a recession.  they haven't gotten any interest on their accounts inyears so that is the new normal.  keeping money "safely" in a bank and not having it at home for somebody to steal is worth some "bank fees".  they see this as normal bank operating procedure.  therefore, don't look to the Japanese to be the rally point of a national push to end NIRP  policies.  

 

jb

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:52 | 7186270 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

If that's true and I expect it is then it explains why NIRP won't work. The only purpose of NIRP is to force people to spend and thereby drive up inflation. What your friends suggest is that they will just leave their savings in the bank and let them be eroded.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:52 | 7186271 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

well played, to the point, and spot on analysis.  

 

Cheers.

 

jb

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 23:50 | 7186725 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Kuroda and Co. are, of course, themselves Japanese -and so fully understand this.

Thus NIRP is not conceived/designed to force the spending of savings by the Japanese since those claiming such know fully well that the mindset of the public cannot be influenced to act thusly by the imposition of NIRP policy.

 

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 23:07 | 7186629 DavidisDawei
DavidisDawei's picture

I would not expect anything different from a society that promotes being a sheep that goes along to get along.  

My only question is if the USA will also go along - even after they are fed some false flag or story to scare them into another submission

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 23:28 | 7186675 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

 If you watch your savings melting, you will cut down on spending. It can mean only one thing: deflationary spiral.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:05 | 7186156 JLM
JLM's picture

Looking at that graph I would say Abe wins! /s

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:14 | 7186172 Racer
Racer's picture

NIK bounced nearly a 1000 points in a day?? FFS, hmm was that just the futures doing that...... even bigger HMMMM!

Bear markets are full of such moves, bulls are timid by comparison!

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:13 | 7186173 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

China numbers are bad. Their trade this month has already dropped to near zero for 2 weeks.

So all we'll get are GAAP numbers on promised orders quotes that haven't even been confirmed.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:22 | 7186199 jubber
jubber's picture

USJPY falling...

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:31 | 7186212 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Imodium alert!

Pan lives matter!

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 20:31 | 7186216 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I remember saying awhile ago that Japan has a nasty habit of deliberately crashing their shit into other people's stuff when they get desperate, and that they had just loaded their economy onto small planes.

Well, it sounds like they're approaching. A lot of financial entities are gonna end up on the bottom of the harbor, and the casualties will be heavy.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 21:06 | 7186307 Mirv
Mirv's picture

The Japanese population is dropping. The working age population is plummeting and the normal household expenses are dropping as people get old and dont spend money on children. So the GDP is dropping a tiny bit.  Whoopie dingle.  So what.  

This is not a bad thing.  There are about 3X too many people in Japan and they need to get their population down a lot, particularly in a world where the biggest problem is too many people, and wherein robots can or will take over most jobs anyway.  Old "retired" people in Japan can and do work and are probably the healthiest people in the world and will handle a currency reset and catastropic loss in savings.   They have endured more than 10 currency collapses in their recorded history, have a very robust culture, and likely will get through the next reset better than anywhere else.  In my opinion we need to abandon our GDP religion and see the world through other values. 

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 08:03 | 7187188 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Japan has a big advantage over all the other debt-bloated countries: most of the debt is domestically owned. That means someday the Emperor can go on the radio, say "sorry, sorry, we must all make sacrifices in this crisis" and give everyone a 50% haircut. People will bow and say "hai!"

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 21:22 | 7186347 Mr. Lips
Mr. Lips's picture

Ummm.. Nope. Asian markets WAYYYYYY up

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 21:24 | 7186353 UNCOMPROMISED
UNCOMPROMISED's picture

Japan is a ball and chain for the US economy. Can we false flag these Asians and cut them loose?

I'm thinking a few explosives planted beneath a shoreline nuclear plant.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 22:44 | 7186576 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

Good night and good luck.

Sun, 02/14/2016 - 23:31 | 7186684 personal109
personal109's picture

The real economy these days is in Neverland.

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 04:28 | 7187062 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

Yeah, Kuroda, why don't you go to Tokyo tower and try.

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 05:05 | 7187094 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

I'm stunned.

Shocked I tell you...shocked!

You mean to tell me.....that Japan's policies....don't work?

Speechless here. At a lost for words.

Scorn?

Laughter?

Yes....

But I'm still.....shocked.

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 05:17 | 7187100 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Nikkei 225 Feb 15 Close
16,022.58
+1,069.97
+7.16%

Peter Pan may be dead...

.... but nobody has noticed yet

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 07:49 | 7187178 Racer
Racer's picture

Hopium is a very addictive drug leading to extreme delusions for terminal users

Mon, 02/15/2016 - 10:02 | 7187411 Rikky
Rikky's picture

Its quite easy to destroy Japan if you're the USA.  Just stop buying their cars and electronics.  Even a 25% decline from US consumption would severely dent their manufacturing export business which is already on its back.

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