Industrial Production Post Third Consecutive Annual Decline: 90% Chance Of Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession. Today 0.7% drop YoY is the 3rd month of declines.


The only times in the last 100 years that 3 months of US Industrial Production contraction has not coincided with a recession was in 1934 and 1952... (and the current decline is larger than 1952's in aggregate)


While the MoM rise of 0.9% (against a revised 0.7% drop in December) was the "strong US economy" headline du jour, a simple scratch below the surface shows most of the surge was from Utilities:


So we suggest not getting too excited about that being sustainable.

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Winston Churchill's picture

Just had a contract cancelled this am.

Clients firm had a surprise layoff yesterday, not him, but he's scared.

Paul John Smith's picture

Dispatches from the economic chaos in Indianapolis (IN):

"... the fires of the dead light up the night sky ... it's medieval ..."

idea_hamster's picture

"surge was from Utilities...So we suggest not getting too excited about that being sustainable."

Everybody leave your f'ing sink running while you brush your teeth -- for the economy!

El Oregonian's picture

It's rather disconcerting when one finds their toes perched over the edge of the abyss of a Depression. Prepare accordingly...

dimwitted economist's picture

Well, what Happens Most Often 

Does NOT Happen in obamaland

During this (new normal) Recovery..

that is NOT a recovery at all!


XAU XAG's picture



Clients firm ...................any connection to Jim Rogers? LOL


I know it's not's laugh or cry time for many


Winston Churchill's picture

I have some clients outside of the 0.1%.Not as many as I'd like.

This guys a manager at an electrical manufacturer.

XAU XAG's picture



Tuff job if no one wants your product.


Look at Bombardier and Merc trucks and that's just today.

Dg4884's picture

I lost 2 already this year.  One company completely folded up their tent and the other lost a client that demanded the service we provide.  Just keeps getting better and better.

NoDebt's picture

"In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession.In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession."

Big deal.  I've correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.

As God is my witness, none of us will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession.

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Yes, recessions are outlawed


El Oregonian's picture

It is, I believe, a hyphenated "//sarc". I could be wrong though.

MSimon's picture

Because reality is a bitch.

Angelo Misterioso's picture

US Ind Prod was negative from Dec 2014-May 2015 (6 straight months) and no recession then - is that one of the rare times this guage did not work?

Or we were in a recession in 2015 and the kleptocracy refused to acknowledge....  

Winston Churchill's picture

We won't care by then, hard to get news living in a trash dumpster.

tarsubil's picture

I mean, right? The poor Central Bankers and Central Planners that have been working so hard to eliminate recessions with all kinds of interventions. And here, we find the solution is as simple as banning the use of the word.

I can't wait for the day the FEMA camp guards prod me into saying the "r" word and I scream out "recession!" so everyone can hear.

venturen's picture

utlities? What.. did Al Gore buy a bigger house? Something tells me this is some accounting trick with solar and wind power.

XAU XAG's picture


Everything is great


Out of the depresion and onwards and upwards into just a 


katchum's picture

Hey Atlanta Fed says 2.7% GDP growth, so no recession.

XAU XAG's picture

When you count dot gov spending in GDP it looks like growth ........................................


But not as you know  it JIM



silverer's picture

When the DOW is under 7,800, do you think the government will finally say the "R" word? Or will MSNBC be hosting Santa Claus?

Berspankme's picture

You mean printing trillions doesnt help?

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) Feb 17, 2016 9:59 AM

In Philadelphia, its worth 50 bucks!

ejmoosa's picture

So the talking heads are trying to talk us out of just how weak this economy is.  They will do so until they cannot.

Meanwhile, we have seen the sharp dropoff in profits, which are the reason that businesses are in business, and profits are the evidence that they are satisfying demand.  If there is no demand for what companies are producing/servicing/providing, then profits disappear.


I keep asking myself what even my return this economy to a higher level of demand?  I see nothing on the horizon.

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Feb 17, 2016 10:13 AM

FOMC minutes today - markets up another 1% - you fucking satanic cunt yellen!!

skillyhog's picture

"90% chance of Recession"......90% chance today is Wednesday.

MSimon's picture

But only for one hour everywhere. Unless you keep GMT.

starman's picture

Meh call Boing we're gonna need couple more long range bombers.


theyjustcantstop's picture

we went from total financial doom in late 2008, the people at the big table figured out away for tax-payers to pay trillions to cover-up the crimes of politicians, and bankers, made them flush, pump a few more trillion to cronies.

Obama takes the oath of office, within weeks america msm announces everything ok, and we're not even in a recession, and there's not been one govt. truthful stat since, we go from financial doom to green shoots within 6 months.

wake up we were in recession all 2008, and have never come out of it, we're in a fed. induced hybrid depression, hyper-inflation state.