Did The "Bartender & Waitress" Jobs 'Recovery' Just End?

Tyler Durden's picture


In the new bifurcated normal US economy, with the manufacturing sector unofficially in recession, it has been the growth of the services sector, and, as we detailed here, implicitly the surge in "bartenders & waiters" jobs, has saved the government's "recovery" statistics in the last few years. Given the recent performance of the National Retail Association's Restaurant Performance Index, the jobs recovery 'party' just ended.


Since December 2007, it is clear where the jobs gains have been...


But judging by the lagged effect of the collapse of the Restaurant Performance Index, that party is over...

h/t @noalpha_allbeta

Just like it was in 2008...


We are sure this is nothing that some double-seasonal-adjustments can't fix, but for those who don't believe in unicorns, the lagged impact of a collapsing manufacturing economy have now hit the services sector... and with that knocked the last leg of the "recovery" stool out from under The Fed.

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Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:46 | 7203546 KesselRunin12Parsecs
KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture

Now even your $200k student loan debt to major in beer pong won't even land u a job!

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:49 | 7203556 knukles
knukles's picture

There are only so many bartender and waitress jobs in any given economy. 
Now that the Phd's have filled the ranks, what are the poor Mexicans and Syrians gonna do?

                       And That Ladies and Gentlemn, Is Reality!

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:50 | 7203570 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

<-- Bar Tender

<-- Canon Fodder

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:51 | 7203578 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Well, when you put it like THAT you make sound all bad and stuff, Boris.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:59 | 7203623 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture


It may have just ended in my town anyway.

I can't afford to drink out anymore.


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:07 | 7203659 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Guys, there's no reason to worry, the food services industry downturn is CONTAINED.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:07 | 7203666 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Just ask Gordon Ramsay's Receiver.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:23 | 7203764 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Unwind globalism.

It has flopped.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:43 | 7203855 Shaznardickleze...
Shaznardickleze the Doon's picture

Everything is awesome

Hookers and Blow


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:07 | 7203665 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Eating establishments are beginning to close slowly. Bartenders and waitresses count on the 30 to 50 high rollers and there are only so many "good" service jobs.

Retirement zones are insulated so far but those folks cant drink too hard because of all the medications the squadrons of "specialists" have them on. I mean they can if they want to, but then they just end up acting like I used to and that is no fun......................

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:09 | 7203677 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

If by "high rollers" you mean "committed alcoholics too embarrassed to go to the liquor store" then yes, I agree.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:17 | 7203730 JRobby
JRobby's picture

HFA's are the bread and butter of the tip earners

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:22 | 7203758 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

Remember the news stories about McDonalds employees being unable to afford to eat there? 


Years ago there was a crew of land surveryors working in a town in Maine and they decided to go to the local watering hole for a few after quitting time. One of them, Whitey, liked his cocktails but was a little short that week. After about 15 minutes at the pub, Whitey walked out and then suddenly ran back in screaming "Fight Outside!" repeatedly. They bar emptied and Whitey proceeded to finish everything that was left on the bar....True story. 

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 17:24 | 7204047 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

This is typical of Whitey?

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 19:30 | 7204616 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

The restaurant incident was hilarious. The waitress was overwhelmed with a packed restaurant and Whitey was a bit hungry. He fell to the floor with his hands sround his neck and the wsitress ran over in a panic. He kept saying "water, water" in a horse voice then stood up and asked when she would take the order.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 19:14 | 7204547 lakecity55
Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:49 | 7203562 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Your STEM degree won't help much either.  You'll just be H1B'ed out of a good paying job if you can even find one to begin with.

You know how many doctors and engineers there are in India?  A shit-ton.  Know how much they earn?  Peanuts.  That's why they are brought here.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:59 | 7203626 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

slowly and steadily the hospitals are farming out radiologists to review ex- rays over the web.  Eventually only the hands on people will work.  No scratch that.  Engineering tech's to fix certain machines.  Maybe.  

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:08 | 7203669 Jack Burton
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My business caters to big city people . I get around 1/3 of my business now from H1B's from India. Minimal English, enough to get by. All work tech jobs for the major corporations in Minneapolis metro area. Most have families along with them.  With US college enrollment at record highs, few tech people are American, at least from what I see.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:25 | 7203776 CaptOveur
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I wish the morons who believe the promise that everyone gets a high paying job with their "free education" understood this. Your degree isn't worth a premium if everyone has one.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:36 | 7203824 youngman
youngman's picture

So you are saying you can pay them in Peanuts...great...Ill bring a bag next checkup

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:46 | 7203825 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

Good point and it's the same in Indonesia and a few few other places too. About 18 years ago a lot of physicians here left the profession because of excessively high insurance rates to pursue other endeavors.



Thu, 02/18/2016 - 19:39 | 7204687 reinhardt
reinhardt's picture

that is about the size of it


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:46 | 7203549 Eireann go Brach
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Obama's recovery..would you like some fries with that sir?

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:56 | 7203611 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

You like fries wid dat, homey?

And up'd one

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:07 | 7203658 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

nobody gets called "sir" in Obozoland...

more like yo, whad you need sumting, or can i getz back to cleaning the fryerz

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:47 | 7203551 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Damned waiters and bartenders always fucking up a perfectly good recovery.


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:56 | 7203586 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Do you serve crabs here?

Yessir we serve anybody.



Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:20 | 7203748 Strelnikov
Strelnikov's picture

(rim shot)

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:03 | 7203638 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

then go to the circus again and watch dancing elephants!

they love to dance, most people don't know that!

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:50 | 7203567 Sir SpeaksALot
Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:51 | 7203574 youngman
youngman's picture

They are going to need more eaters and drinkers I would think

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:52 | 7203582 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

OMG finally Peak Bartenders..

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:52 | 7203584 Insurrexion
Insurrexion's picture



There was no fucking recovery.


Read this guy's analysis:



Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:53 | 7203589 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

  I almost feel guilty for going on the wagon. Almost.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:54 | 7203598 E.F. Mutton
E.F. Mutton's picture

I'm surprised the liquor industry has recovered from when I stopped three years ago.  If I start again, go long on Jim Beam.  Trust me.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:11 | 7203676 JRobby
JRobby's picture

They have been steadily raising price.

I recall (well sort of) "Beaming Up" nightly. Any minor windfall would warrant a "Black Beam" purchase.

Funny thing happened to my liver enzymes (among other malady's)


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:14 | 7203701 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Call on Old Granddad in hard times. Same distillery, fewer flavor tocopherols as Beam. Questionable GMO, but it's ethanol for shit's sake.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:19 | 7203744 JRobby
JRobby's picture

I now look like that old fucker on the bottle.....

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 17:18 | 7203999 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

us broke ass motherfuckers don't drink Old Grand Dad like Ronnie Van Zant used to...

maybe that's why i feel like dogshit piled on a leaf every morning,

try the green label jim beam it's cheaper and better

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:54 | 7203597 Hohum
Hohum's picture

The federal government has decreed that all citizens shall now eat four meals per day instead of three.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:55 | 7203605 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Ill give you a tip, get another job.Beat the rush.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:57 | 7203612 Chuckster
Chuckster's picture

Well shit!  I was just going to come out of retirement and now this!  I can't believe Oby lied to me!

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 15:59 | 7203622 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Many restaurants are shuddering their doors. I am friends with a restaurateur and owns food establishments with servings from pub food to Foie Gras He has said for months that foodies are in for a rough ride this year. Margins are tight, wages are up and/or are poised to be made into law much higher, and lastly guests simply are opting to save money and reduce the number of nights they dine out.  Bernie will fix all that though....free shit for all....

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:09 | 7203681 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

largely anecdotal but I ordered food for the Super Bowl same place as last year.  Packed last year, totally empty this year except for one table.


Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:22 | 7203760 JRobby
JRobby's picture

NOT in Denver or Charlotte obviously?

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:00 | 7203628 Chuckster
Chuckster's picture

Were going into WW3 and the bartenders are getting laid off?  What kind of planning is this?  Where is the pentagon.  In WW2 an enlisted man was entitled to a case of 3.2 beer a month.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:02 | 7203642 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Being the aficionado that I am, that would possibly last through Happy Hour.

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:18 | 7203738 Strelnikov
Strelnikov's picture

Lottsa peein' coming up...

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 16:31 | 7203796 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Once your bloodstream is waterlogged, its one beer in, one beer out thereafter.  Thats what I hate about drinking beer, its a pisser....

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