Did The "Bartender & Waitress" Jobs 'Recovery' Just End?

Tyler Durden's picture

In the new bifurcated normal US economy, with the manufacturing sector unofficially in recession, it has been the growth of the services sector, and, as we detailed here, implicitly the surge in "bartenders & waiters" jobs, has saved the government's "recovery" statistics in the last few years. Given the recent performance of the National Retail Association's Restaurant Performance Index, the jobs recovery 'party' just ended.


Since December 2007, it is clear where the jobs gains have been...


But judging by the lagged effect of the collapse of the Restaurant Performance Index, that party is over...

h/t @noalpha_allbeta

Just like it was in 2008...


We are sure this is nothing that some double-seasonal-adjustments can't fix, but for those who don't believe in unicorns, the lagged impact of a collapsing manufacturing economy have now hit the services sector... and with that knocked the last leg of the "recovery" stool out from under The Fed.

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KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Feb 18, 2016 2:46 PM

Now even your $200k student loan debt to major in beer pong won't even land u a job!

knukles's picture

There are only so many bartender and waitress jobs in any given economy. 
Now that the Phd's have filled the ranks, what are the poor Mexicans and Syrians gonna do?

                       And That Ladies and Gentlemn, Is Reality!

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

<-- Bar Tender

<-- Canon Fodder

NoDebt's picture

Well, when you put it like THAT you make sound all bad and stuff, Boris.

bigdumbnugly's picture


It may have just ended in my town anyway.

I can't afford to drink out anymore.


nuubee's picture

Guys, there's no reason to worry, the food services industry downturn is CONTAINED.

Barnaby's picture

Just ask Gordon Ramsay's Receiver.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Unwind globalism.

It has flopped.

Shaznardickleze the Doon's picture

Everything is awesome

Hookers and Blow


JRobby's picture

Eating establishments are beginning to close slowly. Bartenders and waitresses count on the 30 to 50 high rollers and there are only so many "good" service jobs.

Retirement zones are insulated so far but those folks cant drink too hard because of all the medications the squadrons of "specialists" have them on. I mean they can if they want to, but then they just end up acting like I used to and that is no fun......................

Barnaby's picture

If by "high rollers" you mean "committed alcoholics too embarrassed to go to the liquor store" then yes, I agree.

JRobby's picture

HFA's are the bread and butter of the tip earners

Lumberjack's picture

Remember the news stories about McDonalds employees being unable to afford to eat there? 


Years ago there was a crew of land surveryors working in a town in Maine and they decided to go to the local watering hole for a few after quitting time. One of them, Whitey, liked his cocktails but was a little short that week. After about 15 minutes at the pub, Whitey walked out and then suddenly ran back in screaming "Fight Outside!" repeatedly. They bar emptied and Whitey proceeded to finish everything that was left on the bar....True story. 

Lumberjack's picture

The restaurant incident was hilarious. The waitress was overwhelmed with a packed restaurant and Whitey was a bit hungry. He fell to the floor with his hands sround his neck and the wsitress ran over in a panic. He kept saying "water, water" in a horse voice then stood up and asked when she would take the order.

NoDebt's picture

Your STEM degree won't help much either.  You'll just be H1B'ed out of a good paying job if you can even find one to begin with.

You know how many doctors and engineers there are in India?  A shit-ton.  Know how much they earn?  Peanuts.  That's why they are brought here.

Groundhog Day's picture

slowly and steadily the hospitals are farming out radiologists to review ex- rays over the web.  Eventually only the hands on people will work.  No scratch that.  Engineering tech's to fix certain machines.  Maybe.  

Jack Burton's picture

My business caters to big city people . I get around 1/3 of my business now from H1B's from India. Minimal English, enough to get by. All work tech jobs for the major corporations in Minneapolis metro area. Most have families along with them.  With US college enrollment at record highs, few tech people are American, at least from what I see.

CaptOveur's picture

I wish the morons who believe the promise that everyone gets a high paying job with their "free education" understood this. Your degree isn't worth a premium if everyone has one.

youngman's picture

So you are saying you can pay them in Peanuts...great...Ill bring a bag next checkup

Lumberjack's picture

Good point and it's the same in Indonesia and a few few other places too. About 18 years ago a lot of physicians here left the profession because of excessively high insurance rates to pursue other endeavors.



reinhardt's picture

that is about the size of it


Eireann go Brach's picture

Obama's recovery..would you like some fries with that sir?

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

You like fries wid dat, homey?

And up'd one

Squid Viscous's picture

nobody gets called "sir" in Obozoland...

more like yo, whad you need sumting, or can i getz back to cleaning the fryerz

NoDebt's picture

Damned waiters and bartenders always fucking up a perfectly good recovery.


Squid Viscous's picture

then go to the circus again and watch dancing elephants!

they love to dance, most people don't know that!

youngman's picture

They are going to need more eaters and drinkers I would think

Iam Yue2's picture

OMG finally Peak Bartenders..

Insurrexion's picture



There was no fucking recovery.


Read this guy's analysis:



83_vf_1100_c's picture

  I almost feel guilty for going on the wagon. Almost.

E.F. Mutton's picture

I'm surprised the liquor industry has recovered from when I stopped three years ago.  If I start again, go long on Jim Beam.  Trust me.

JRobby's picture

They have been steadily raising price.

I recall (well sort of) "Beaming Up" nightly. Any minor windfall would warrant a "Black Beam" purchase.

Funny thing happened to my liver enzymes (among other malady's)


Barnaby's picture

Call on Old Granddad in hard times. Same distillery, fewer flavor tocopherols as Beam. Questionable GMO, but it's ethanol for shit's sake.

JRobby's picture

I now look like that old fucker on the bottle.....

Squid Viscous's picture

us broke ass motherfuckers don't drink Old Grand Dad like Ronnie Van Zant used to...

maybe that's why i feel like dogshit piled on a leaf every morning,

try the green label jim beam it's cheaper and better

Hohum's picture

The federal government has decreed that all citizens shall now eat four meals per day instead of three.

Winston Churchill's picture

Ill give you a tip, get another job.Beat the rush.

Chuckster's picture

Well shit!  I was just going to come out of retirement and now this!  I can't believe Oby lied to me!

ChargingHandle's picture

Many restaurants are shuddering their doors. I am friends with a restaurateur and owns food establishments with servings from pub food to Foie Gras He has said for months that foodies are in for a rough ride this year. Margins are tight, wages are up and/or are poised to be made into law much higher, and lastly guests simply are opting to save money and reduce the number of nights they dine out.  Bernie will fix all that though....free shit for all....

corporatewhore's picture

largely anecdotal but I ordered food for the Super Bowl same place as last year.  Packed last year, totally empty this year except for one table.


JRobby's picture

NOT in Denver or Charlotte obviously?

Chuckster's picture

Were going into WW3 and the bartenders are getting laid off?  What kind of planning is this?  Where is the pentagon.  In WW2 an enlisted man was entitled to a case of 3.2 beer a month.

Arnold's picture

Being the aficionado that I am, that would possibly last through Happy Hour.

Strelnikov's picture

Lottsa peein' coming up...

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Once your bloodstream is waterlogged, its one beer in, one beer out thereafter.  Thats what I hate about drinking beer, its a pisser....