"Brexit" Looms As Cameron Pushes For Reforms In All-Nighter

Tyler Durden's picture

"I was here till 5 o'clock this morning working through this and we've made some progress but there's still no deal.”

That’s from British PM David Cameron, who was apparently up all night in an effort to understand why his country should stay in the EU. Unless Cameron hears what he wants to hear, he will not campaign for the UK to remain in the bloc ahead of an expected referendum on membership in June.

“Britain has always had an ambiguous relationship with the bloc, staying out of two of its most ambitious projects, the Schengen border free zone and the euro common currency,” Reuters writes. “Its exit would end the vision of the EU as the natural home for European democracies and reverse the continent's post-World War Two march toward ‘ever closer union.’”

Cameron is seeking changes that will reduce his country's financial burden as it relates to refugees and other EU nations. "As I have said, I would only do a deal if we get what Britain needs, so we are going to get back in there," he said, after marathon talks. 

"Paris has pushed for amendments to ensure Britain cannot veto actions by the euro zone countries or give City of London banks competitive advantage through regulation," Reuters goes on to note. "A group of east European states chaired by the Czechs is trying to hold back how far their citizens can be denied welfare benefits in Britain or have family allowances reduced."

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party and the UK press are pushing for reforms. "Britain's place in Europe has been allowed to fester for too long" Cameron says, but there's "now a chance to settle this issue for a generation".

"For now I can only say that we have made some progress but a lot needs to be done," EU president Donald Tusk said.

UK business leaders are skeptical. "Mr Cameron’s team has been lining up business leaders to come out in support of his EU deal next week, even before any agreement has been reached," FT says, before noting that although "a letter from supportive business leaders is planned for next week, with  80 out of Britain’s FTSE 100 companies backing Britain staying in the EU, "that number was seen as speculative by some in the Remain camp and research by the Financial Times this month revealed that some top companies were reluctant to get drawn into the debate."

Here's a bit of color from Bloomberg on what "Brexit" would mean for London's "City": 
  • What is at stake? Financial services account for 180 billion pounds ($258 billion) a year — about 12 percent — of U.K. economic output and contribute 66 billion pounds in taxes. In some areas, like foreign exchange trading (41 percent of the world total) and over-the counter derivatives (49 percent), London is the undisputed global leader. Opponents of a Brexit fear a departure would precipitate years of uncertainty and steady waning of influence and market share.
  • What is passporting and why does it matter? Under the current regime, any firm authorized in the U.K. firm is free to do business in any other European Economic Area state by applying for a "passport" from British regulators. For non-EU banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse Group AG or Nomura Holdings Inc., the ability to access the region’s 500 million customers from a base in London has been an important draw. Without it, many firms may seriously consider upping sticks.
  • What would Brexit mean for the banks? Every day more than a trillion dollars worth of euros change hands in London, close to half the global total, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The City’s global dominance of the foreign-exchange market is likely to be tested by any Brexit package that fails to guarantee a continuation of access to the single market. Over-the-counter derivatives are another area for concern. About three-quarters of all trading in such instruments in Europe currently takes place in the British capital. Without access to the single market, much of that is likely to migrate, according to lawyers and bankers who say that U.S. banks are already mulling moving operations.

Right. So this isn't just symbolic. "While no FTSE 100 company said it wanted Britain to leave the EU, only 18 were prepared to state unequivocally that they supported continued membership," FT goes on to note.

Right. Because in reality, there aren't very many solid arguments for supporting continued memebership and whatever arguments were left have been significantly diminished by the bloc's worsening migrant crisis. Still, Cameron is calling for a "live and let live approach." Here's a look at UK trade vis-a-vis the rest of Europe. 

But numbers aren't likely to sway the British people who are prepared to opt out of the ill-fated union. 

Cameron says he's "battling for Britain", but in reality he's "battling for the EU." With the future of the union already in question thanks to the festering migrant crisis, Britain may well be better off abandoning this sinking ship. "It's the EU in question, not just one country in the EU," French President Francois Hollande said on Friday.

Indeed. And the time has now come for Britain to decide whether it's prepared to go down with this ship, or forge a path ahead on its own. In the meantime, expect volatility, PIMCO says. "Irrespective of the twists and turns in the debate over U.K.’s planned referendum on EU membership, uncertainty over the result is likely to weigh on U.K. markets for a good few months yet," Mike Amey, Pimco portfolio manager said in a press release. Right. it is likely to cast a pall on markets "for a good few months yet," as you can tell from the below: 

Of course all of this is nothing a rate cut can't fix...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
buzzsaw99's picture

they would have to be insane to want to be part of the eu.

XAU XAG's picture

 

"I was here till 5 o'clock this morning working through this and we've made some progress but there's still no deal.”

 

 

All say ahhhhhhhhhh for Davey

 

You wanted the Job.........Get on with it 

FlipFlop's picture

Britain, please, do the right.

The lesser blueyed cattle might wake up

new game's picture

london falling, coming to theatre near you...

CuttingEdge's picture

Cameron would have achieved more by just presenting a yes - no.

His "negotiations" put him firmly in the Obama camp of political incompetence - a level very few attain. All it's done is highlighted for the public what a corrupt bureaucratic shitstain the EU is.

And I'm sure that given, as I recall, Germany France and Italy all have a trade surplus with the UK, their commerce must be leaping for joy at the thought of Brexit. And then they woke up...

Four chan's picture

cameron is like a british merkel no?

froze25's picture

Just like i said in previous post, this will go longer then planned (over time) then like magic they will come to a last minute agreement. England will side with the EU and sell out their people for the Banksters. Although it will be sold as both sides making compromises so it looks like they are looking out for their people, make no mistake they are not.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

So let me get this straight: Britain leaving the EU will be bad for the City of London bankers?

OK, then. The probability that Britain leaves the EU is similar to the probability that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow.

Cameron is putting on a nice show, though! "Up until 5am", lololol.

macholatte's picture

England will side with the EU and sell out their people for the Banksters.

 

yes. Appears the above article was all about the banksters with zero discussion whatsoever about any social impact the BREXIT would have. Curious what the economic result would be if GBR cut off the migrant wave and gave the EU and the UN the middle finger and said NO MAS! to the parasites. Would it make England a nicer place?

JohninMK's picture

London won't be falling.

Forget the scare stories, the EU companies that trade with us are not going to turn their back on the UK market when we opt out. If they do there will be some nice investment opportunities in the UK.

As to the banking sector, isn't that about to go down the tubes anyway?

Given the factors, about £10B contributions saved and stop to immigration, the Government has a real problem keeping us in. Also our paper based voting system is difficult to rig, no Deibold here.

What I find astonishing is that they are not bending over backwards to keep us in. That £10B or so we pay greases a lot of palms.

 

Stuck on Zero's picture

It's not the EU that will sink GB. It's Socialism.

froze25's picture

England will not be opting out of anything. Wait and see.

msamour's picture

@ JohninMK

"Given the factors, about £10B contributions saved and stop to immigration, the Government has a real problem keeping us in. Also our paper based voting system is difficult to rig, no Deibold here."

 

No Diebold machines, no problem. Extra ballot boxes filled with pre casted votes will be wating on the sides. That is the oldest trick in the book. It is not the person casting the vote that matters, it is the person counting it...

 

I already know the outcome of the vote in June: it will be 52% to stay in, and 48% to leave. After all, they can't make it too obvious!

 

Democracy was the biggest con ever invented.

MisterMousePotato's picture

What you just described is not an indictment of democracy, but rather an indictment of dishonest people rigging elections.

Mind you, there are, I concede, big problems with democracy, but rigging elections will cause any system to fail.

philipat's picture

And that saving of GBP 55 Million PER DAY contribution for the privilege of being a member amounts, roughly to USD 600 per year for every man, woman and child in the UK.

Now, how do we get out of NATO also.....

FlipFlop's picture

Once you have figured out the cost, could you provide us the benefit, please?

 

Well, that is harder :) It is the spirit, the European mission, destruction of a nation state....

The best Sun's picture

The picture shows just Cameron.

I see Cameron fucking a pigs head.

I can't unsee it.

Eye bleach please.

 

philipat's picture

Probably better than fucking the Horse he is married to?

Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

The sticking point to the agreement is that Cameron wants the muslim refuges to not get public benefits for 13 years,  He figures by then, they will find ways to get them the hell out of Brittain.

One would think that all of these bastians of socialism would want to adopt such a timetable.  When the breadlines start forming in Germany and France, a 13 year wait will seem like a bargain.

 

stocktivity's picture

All that matters is oil and Deutsche Bank are up....ummm......oh oh oops.

buzzsaw99's picture

I am a poor boy too

Pa rum pum Van Rompuy

I have no gift to bring

Pa rum pum Van Rompuy

That's fit to give our King

Pa rum pum Van Rompuy

Pa rum pum Van Rompuy

Pa rum pum Van Rompuy...

StychoKiller's picture

 

 

[quote] ...

Well, what can a poor boy do
Except to sing for a rock n' roll band?
'Cause in sleepy London town
There's just no place for a street fighting man

I said hey and the time is right
For a palace revolution
But where I live the game
To play is compromise solution

Well, then what can a poor boy do
Except to sing for a rock n' roll band?
'Cause in sleepy London town
There's no place for a street fighting man, no... [/quote]


copyright <a href="http://elyrics.net" rel="nofollow">http://elyrics.net</a>

junction's picture

Cameron was up until 5 AM waiting for the Rothschilds to give him his marching orders.

holgerdanske's picture

"they would have to be insane to want to be part of the eu."

Depends on who "they" are.

Merkel and Cameron would be at the helm of an enterprise of about 500 million people. All caroled and herded to maximize tax collection.

On their own, they would be at the helm of 80 and 60 million, respectively.

The size of the cake, my dear!

If "they" are the people in the street, then you are right, they would be absolutely loopey. But I would not put it past them. Brain washing, TV, corrupt politicians and lying bankers and industry, you have to be tough and independently thinking to resist that. This is a rare commodity today.

But good ol UK, saved Europe once!! might do so again.

Let's hope!

LordBuckFast's picture

Does anyone really believe that the elite will let the UK walk away from the EU!


This lays out their psychopathic agenda in minute detail......

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2016/02/ww3-2016-obama-putin-isis...

 

open-range's picture
open-range (not verified) buzzsaw99 Feb 19, 2016 8:47 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.wallstreet34.com

Paul John Smith's picture

If the Brits had any pride left, they would leave the EU completely - to rot in the dust-bin of history.

But the Brits are a hollowed out society now ... a shadow of what they once were.

Living on a thin line ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsLhNxzwK1Y

Bill of Rights's picture

"oh gee not this shit again " I much prefer the deadly mosquito talk ...

insanelysane's picture

There was an article the other day in the UK stating that petrol would increase 19p if they exit the EU.  I guess it could happen but the MSM doesn't seem to cover the fact that staying in the EU will require the UK to be doling out benefits to migrants from inside and outside the EU.

deKevelioc's picture

The UK has a nice big moat around the place, too.  

chubbar's picture

I'll be surprised if they leave. Since when did what the people want ever matter? If it's in the best interests of the banks to remain with the EU, that is what will happen.

Cactus's picture

Everyone I speak to has wanted to leave the EU for years now.  The EU want a banking /money laundering centre and the UK want to cream the profits from it.  Otherwise Frankurt looks like the next best option to relocate it and good riddance. The TPTB are desparate to keep us in, after all the EU state is a stepping stone to creating the NWO. All the pantomime of battling for Britain is a farce. The media have been full of propaganda and fear even POTUS having his say. The best one has been the Calias refugee centre. If we leave, we are obliged by the French to take the refugees! NO!. If we leave, we have sovereignty over our own borders. How thick do they think we are! The fear mongering in the media is bad and will get worse. The timing of the referendum (probably June) is no coincidence either - Queen's 90th birthday celebrations in full swing, forget your anger, lets party! The UK people are desparate to have their say and I think there will be a high turnout on the day. If the result is to stay in - there will be a massive uproar in the UK and Camoron will be out. 

strateshooter's picture

I am a Brit.
I am one hundred percent voting OUT in the referendum.
the EU is too cumbersome and corrupt to survive.Only UK, Germany and Benelux hold it together.The rest are just leeching off them.
we have had enough.We want out.When we go the Germans will soon pack up their tent and decamp to.Then it is over.

FlipFlop's picture

How can we give you 10 000 000 votes?

- - - - - -'s picture
- - - - - - (not verified) strateshooter Feb 19, 2016 8:06 AM

this is what the eu was about to begin with

money and promises were used as a bait to lure everyone in and now no one can get out

XAU XAG's picture

You and me Strateshooter

Even if and that's a big if we donot get out now we will be tied to a sinking ship............the European Project

new game's picture

another waste of tyme(vote)...

XAU XAG's picture

Even if they rig it

 

I could never ever forgive myself for NOT voting to leave Europe.

 

So to  you new game I say another waste of tyme (post)

 

Have a nice day

CuttingEdge's picture

I'm an expat Brit living in Spain, and while Brexit would cause problems at my end to be sure, I say fuck it, get the hell out of Dodge, you mothers. It will bring the whole corrupt edifice down.

 

If, as many including myself feel, there is a global recession of epoch proportions approaching, the only thing that is presently keeping the EU solvent (or not), the German export machine, is going tits up toot sweet. They don't fair well when folks aint buying their stuff (VW/Audi aside for obvious reasons).

philipat's picture

Spain will allow residence to property owners and probably even UK residents still. Especially in their present economic position.

My concern is, will a UK/EU Passport still work and, if so, for how long?

insanelysane's picture

The EU passport will be dead by spring anyway.  You'll get a special line still but you will be searched.  Not for bombs but for large quantities of money and precious metals.

JohnGaltsChild's picture

Good for you! The union has been a shipwreck from the beginning. Don't let the insanity drag the UK down.

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Brit, too, strat. There is zero chance of the UK leaving the EU. Not that I am any less a leaver than you.

 

If, for some insane reason the rigged vote actually does come down on the side of 'leave', Cameron has vowed to continue as PM and see the exit through.

 

Do you trust Spoonface?

Kagemusho's picture

The EU was also about unrestricted immigration...such as Europe is presently  'enjoying'. The Kerlagi Plan on steroids.

Enoch Powell saw this coming 47 years ago, and tried to warn the British people.

The liberal Establishment in Britain trashed him publicly. Now Britons risk becoming strangers in their own land, just as he predicted they would so long ago.

Enoch Powell was right.

THE SOLUTION IS DEBT FREE MONEY CREATION's picture
THE SOLUTION IS DEBT FREE MONEY CREATION (not verified) strateshooter Feb 19, 2016 9:21 AM

I AM VOTING OUT OF THIS ZIONIST NIGHTMARE....BUT ZATO WILL RIG THE VOTE :(

Cloud9.5's picture

North Sea production should tell you guys where this is going.  I am an Anglophile.  My first new car was an MGB.  My gun collection is predominantly Enfields.  I took my bride to Baker’s Street on our honey moon forty years ago and drug her through every museum in London.  We have been back a half dozen times since then.  I have witnessed the changes.  So, I say this to you with some regret.  The age of the end of empires is on us, both for you and the United States.  The age of contraction and localization is the new trend.  You are an Island.  You might want to pull up Reverend Malthus’s work, dust it off and read it.  Look to your history.  Mott and Bailey may very well be the new construction rage if you are to preserve yourselves.

shovelhead's picture

Britains pirates moved from her ship decks to the City.

Maybe they can move back to adapt to the "New Europe".

XAU XAG's picture

@shovelhead

 

Most of Britains pirates moved to...................................Drum Roll

 

USA!

JDFX's picture

Britains leaving. But Dave should have had the balls to tell EU, Britain will run EU, under the flag of the UNITED KINGDOM OF EUROPE. Or else ! 

 

He's doing that now, just using passive psychopolitical persuasion. 

Kefeer's picture

QUOTE: Cameron says he's "battling for Britain", but in reality he's "battling for the EU." - end 

 

That says it all, therefore they will join the EU by hooks, crooks and corruption.