Experts: Invasion of Syria Could Lead to Nuclear War

George Washington's picture

Turkey previously shot down a Russian jet.

Now, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are threatening to invade Syria.

How dangerous could this get, in a worst case scenario?

Robert Parry – the investigative reporter who broke the Iran-Contra story for the Associated Press and Newsweek  –  wrote yesterday:

A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.

Washington’s Blog asked one of America’s top experts on Russia – Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University, and the author of a number of books on Russia and the Soviet Union – what he thought of Parry’s claim.

Cohen said:

Parry is a serious man [“serious” is the highest compliment that an insider can give to someone]. I cannot say it will lead to nuke war, but it is very dangerous, as is quadrupling US/NATO forces near Russia’s borders.

Pavel Felgenhauer – a leading Russian military analyst – also believes that a nuclear war is “very likely” to arise from Russia’s skirmishes with Turkey in Syria.

Last December, U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – a Member of the House Armed Services Committee, Iraq war veteran, and Major in the Hawaii Army National Guard – warned that U.S. policy in Syria could lead to a nuclear war. And see this.

Also in December, retired Lieutenant General Robert Gard, chairman emeritus of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, retired Brigadier General John H. Johns, professor emeritus from US National Defense University, and Leslie Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relations,  penned an article in Foreign Policy calling for US-Russia cooperation to de-escalate current tensions and diffuse the increasing worrisome nuclear blustering.

American security expert Bruce Blair – a former nuclear-missile launch officer – notes that Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane at the Syrian-Turkish border “fits a pattern of brinkmanship and inadvertence that is raising tensions and distrust between Russia and US-led NATO,” and that “this escalation could morph by design or inadvertence into a nuclear threat.”

Blair writes that the threat of nuclear war is higher now that during the Soviet era:

Russia has shortened the launch time from what it was during the Cold War. Today, top military command posts in the Moscow area can bypass the entire human chain of command and directly fire by remote control rockets in silos and on trucks as far away as Siberia in only 20 seconds.

 

Why should this concern us? History shows that crisis interactions, once triggered, take on a life of their own. Military encounters multiply; they become more decentralized, spontaneous and intense. Safeguards are loosened and unfamiliar operational environments cause accidents and unauthorized actions. Miscalculations, misinterpretations and loss of control create a fog of crisis out of which a fog of war may emerge. In short, the slope between the low-level military encounters, the outbreak of crisis and escalation to a nuclear dimension is a steep and slippery one.

(Indeed, the U.S. and Soviets came within seconds of all-out nuclear war on numerous occasions. And only the courage of U.S. and Soviet individuals to say no when their superiors told them to fire nuclear weapons – in the face of mistaken readings – saved the planet from nuclear war.)

Russia expert Stephen Cohen agrees that the risks of nuclear war are much higher than people know, telling the Commonwealth Club last year that the threat of nuclear war with Russia is now greater than it was with the Soviets.

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry agrees that the risk of nuclear war is higher than during the Soviet era.

Postscript:  Top Russian, American and Polish experts also warn that continued fighting in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.

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Nanur's picture
Nanur (not verified) Feb 21, 2016 9:04 AM

When you have a big hammer, everything looks like a nail.

dag's picture

There will be no WW III.

There will be no nuclear war.

Obama will not be Kennedied.

inosent's picture

There will never be a nuclear war. Get over it.

Haole's picture

Whatever is going to happen is preordained... Bring it.  I want truth, if that means death, bring it.

Bless us all and may love reign, BTChez.

Collectivism Killz's picture

Russia is bulstering its positions in Crimea, Armenia and the North Caucuses. China and Iran are also likely on notice. If Russia looses its footing, China is now left virtually alone against the Western juggernaut. Iran must know that Moscow saved Syria and that they would be expected to poney up against Turkey should they invade.

Also, Russia has very powerful conventional bombs with a 300m kill radius. Their bombers can drop a few of these of Turkish positions under fighter and S400 cover. Kalibr missles can hit any Turkish bases, so any overrun of Russian and Hezbollah positions will be short lived. Also, if peasants like us are talking about this, I am sure the Iranians and Russians already have a plan in place and I have heard have reserve forces with advanced anti-tank weapons to check any Turkish advance. Remember, the heart of Russian and Syrian forces are in the Mountainous areas. Tanks would not be able to move quickly especially against a force with AT missles and air superiority. The Kurds would be vulnerable to a mass tank assault, but that would quickly become a US and Israeli problem as their vision of a pro Western Kurdistan evicerates.

tncaver's picture

Fuck you maestro you cocksucker. Our government needs to be taken out not most Americans. So crawl back into your shithole country and shut the fuck up before I put a boot up your as you muslim EU loving shit.

Maestro Maestro's picture

Filthy lying American,
America is a democracy where Americans vote in the government that they want. Your government IS you. You Americans are responsible for what your government does. You always vote for the same scumbag Democrats and Republicans.

Therefore,

Americans are scum.

bunnyswanson's picture

Fuck off asshole.  You know full well the issues which have allowed the USA to be undermined and it certainly had nothing to do with THE PEOPLE and everything to do with infiltration, murder, graft, policy coup, double agents, espionage and lying filthy bankers.

http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/books/167289/nanjing-je...

“Do the Jews Really Control America?” asked one Chinese newsweekly headline in 2009. The factoids doled out in such articles and in books about Jews in China—for example: “The world’s wealth is in Americans’ pockets; Americans are in Jews’ pockets”—

“While academics around the world are attempting to damage Israel’s economy with calls for boycotts and divestment, it is the Chinese who see the inherent value in Israeli ingenuity, innovation and education,” Carice Witte, executive director of Sino-Israel Global Network and Academic Leadership (SIGNAL), an institute working to advance Israel-China relations, told JNS.org.

"In addition to the $130 million gift to Technion, for strengthening Technion’s home campus in Haifa, Guangdong Province will invest approximately $150 million to develop the new Technion Guangdong campus."

http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2013/10/6/bds-antidote-may-come-from-...

"A trade bill which passed a senate vote Thursday is set to be signed into law by US President Barack Obama, despite his objections to its pro-Israel portions. The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 came before Congress last summer as part of a package designed to strengthen rule enforcement and address currency manipulation.

The bill, however, contains a provision which would extend agreements with Israel into “Israeli-controlled territories”, a move lauded by pro-Israel lobby AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee) but criticised by the White House, which said it “contravenes longstanding U.S. policy towards Israel and the occupied territories, including with regard to Israeli settlement activity.”


Read more at http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/61409/obama-reluctantly-signs-bds-bill...

Maestro Maestro's picture

Look, if you Americans simply voted for anyone BUT the Democrats and the Republicans, the establishment would not be able to play games with them super delegates and the infamous electoral college.

Instead of fixing the problem (you!) you're trying to deflect responsibility.

bunnyswanson's picture

The fact of the matter is, the failure is an orchestrated failure.  The blue print has been designed to allow the collapse of a nation while in the guise of bad decisions by "decision makers".  No patriot in their right mind would run for office and then allow businesses to apply unfair business practices to destroy the labor force, unregulating banking industry to destroy the backbone of the country's economy, The Housing Industry, and the rest which has been gone over enough you should know it by heart.  The "Enterprise Steal the World" is gutting middle class, killing the lower class and transferring wealth of 1st world nations to developing nations!  DO YOU UNDERSTAND?  Every nation is being depleted of resources, indebted to bankruptcy status and its citizens left JOBLESS. 

Here is projection fro:

Economic Indicators for the United States including actual values, historical data charts, an economic calendar, time-series statistics, business news, long term forecasts and short-term predictions for the United States economy. 2/21/2016 USA - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators

Canada - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/population

dogster's picture

No one mentions the Jews who run both parties.  I guess everyone is afraid of being called anti-semitic. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0kWAqZxJVE

tomcat415's picture

I wondered when a numb nut would come along and say Jews

bunnyswanson's picture

• The Israel Project: Founded in 2003, the Israel Project specializes in pro-Israel propaganda targeting the press and the American public. In 2009, a secret handbook commissioned by The Israel Project and written by Republican pollster and strategist Frank Luntz, “The Global Language Dictionary,” was exposed by two Newsweek reporters. The handbook crafts language and talking points for Israel advocates in simplistic, diversionary, and dishonest ways. The organization has 70 employees and an $11 million annual budget. In 2011 it opened additional bureaus in India and China and launched a website in Arabic."

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/2009/07/10/the-israel-projects-secret-...

http://www.ifamericansknew.org/us_ints/introlobby.html

• The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)

• The American Israel Education Foundation (AIEF)
Pro-Israel Political Action Committees (PACs

• Anti-Defamation League (ADL)

 • International Fellowship of Christians and Jews (aka Stand for Israel):
• The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP)

• Simon Wiesenthal Center:
• Christians United for Israel (CUFI)

• Hadassah (Women’s Zionist Organization of America
Friends of the Israeli Defense Forces (FIDF)

• America’s Voices in Israel (AVI)

• The Foundation for Jewish Camp:
• The Jewish Agency for Israel

• The Jim Joseph Foundation

• The Avi Chai Foundation

• Emergency Committee for Israel (ECI)
• Stand with Us

• AMIT
• Leona M. and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust

Jewish National Fund (JNF
Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA)

American Jewish Committee (AJC
Zionist Organization of America (ZOA)

Friends of Aish Hatorah
World Jewish Congress

Chabad

• Republican Jewish Coalition

• National Jewish Democratic Council

• Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Saban Center at Brookings

• Ateret Cohanim

• Israeli-American Council

• Elad

• Young Israel

• Amcha Initiative: The Amcha Initiative is a group whose stated objective is to protect Jewish students from anti-Semitism. Their definition of anti-Semitism is broad and encompasses virtually any criticism of Israel, including criticism of Israel’s human rights abuses. The group also lists the Boycott Divest and Sanction movement as an example anti-Semitism. Their annual income is $199,155. The source of this income is unclear.

 

Maestro Maestro's picture

Americans only care about their salaries, not who pays them.

How many pictures of Americans groping respective body parts with assorted Saudi Arab dignitaries?

Filthy subhuman animals you are, you Americans.

xavi1951's picture

Is that a Burnie Sanders bumper sticker on your camel?

xavi1951's picture

Spoken like a true Musi sympathizer!

 

And the Musi sympathizers down vote me.

Maestro Maestro's picture

Exterminate Americans.

Americans created Muslim ISIS who rape, torture and kill Christians.

Americans are staunch allies of the Saudi Arabs who behead human beings and stone women to death for the crime of having sex.

Americans have been the friends of practically all mass-murdering dictators from South and Central America to Africa and Asia.

Americans torture and murder human beings by the millions.

Americans only consume and produce nothing that's worthy of consumption.

Americans break their own laws by not using gold as money as required by Article 1, Section 10 of the Constitution of the United States of America.

Americans will kill you.

Exterminate Americans who are the same thing as ISIS.

Let's breathe.

nmewn's picture

You try to exterminate me and I can predict down to the second when your last breath will be.

bunnyswanson's picture

Tylers of Zerohedge.  I want this person banned for Anti-Americanism.  I am quite serious.

NuYawkFrankie's picture

WW3 Proudly INSTIGATED by USSA NeoCON SCUMMM*

(SCUMMM* - Satanic Cabal Underwriting Mass Muder & Mayhem)

Emergency Ward's picture

President Obama just bombed Libya again and killed a bunch of "folks".  His Pentagon spokeperson wasn't sure who they were.

Joe A's picture

Among the dead were two Serbs who were embassy folks kidnapped a few months ago.

Lumberjack's picture

He didn't drop leaflets so we know. Also Saudi Arabia now claims it has nukes.

Lumberjack's picture

Hundreds of photos of communications faclilities, data centers, bunkers and so much more. 

 

http://www.panoramio.com/user/4534070?comment_page=1&photo_page=1

Joe A's picture

All to be rendered useless with a well placed EMT bomb in the atmosphere. Would fry their circuits. But what the real mayhem would be is that once of a sudden the TV addicted population would be left with nothing to watch.

monad's picture

gheyist zh article. Ever.

Grow up. Now. Or Else... 

lakecity55's picture

"Russians Outflank Hapless Turks"

"Erdogan Whacked, then Tried by Generals"

"Davotouglue Vanishes"

WOWurstupid's picture

Hey George I thought you said Israel and the Zionists were behind all this shit, Bet that is what Netanyahu wants nuke war in the backyard. 

Marco's picture

If someone is playing games here I think they are playing it on a higher level than the normal level of AIPAC level lobbying and funding Sunni insurgents.

I doubt the standard zionists banked on Russian intervention (few gains to be had for Putin, other than warning off the US from playing games in its backyard by showing it can play that game too). I doubt they banked on Obama pushing the Iran deal either.

J Jason Djfmam's picture

Can you think of a better way to keep Muslims from shiiting in your pool?

litemine's picture

At least your comment lives up to the name you picked.

Much of the trouble is from the Jewish Zionist Bankers and their Minnions.

When trouble hits, targets will appear to the Masses and one by one , those will get their just rewards.

Religion is a fraud and those that follow their Lies will pay the Piper.

A Religion that backs Finance is the worship of Money......Fiat......paper. (Or have they amassed the Gold from the vaults under 9-11 's false Flag?)

 

 

WOWurstupid's picture

Yours too lite mind...And God is in control, He is letting the enemy play but that is soon to end and every knee will bow even yours bud

nmewn's picture

lmao!...just do it Hillary, it's not like he's offering you a glass of battery acid to drink...lol...

PELLEY: You know, in '76, Jimmy Carter famously said, "I will not lie to you."

CLINTON: Well, I have to tell you I have tried in every way I know how literally from my years as a young lawyer all the way through my time as secretary of state to level with the American people.

PELLEY: You talk about leveling with the American people. Have you always told the truth?

CLINTON: I've always tried to. Always. Always.

PELLEY: Some people are gonna call that wiggle room that you just gave yourself.

CLINTON: Well, no, I’ve always tried --

PELLEY: I mean, Jimmy Carter said, "I will never lie to you."

CLINTON: Well, but, you know, you’re asking me to say, "Have I ever?" (1) I don't believe I ever have. (2) I don't believe I ever have. I don't believe I ever will. I’m gonna do the best I can to level with the American people.

No!

See you just did! You just lied at least twice trying to say you're gonna do you're best not to lie to the American people...LMMFAO!

lakecity55's picture

Haha, she is programmed to Lie!

"Well, honestly Pelley, I am so crooked, I can't tell a lie from the Truth. I mean, look, I sold out Dick Nixon and got kicked off the Panel, got illegal bribes thru cattle futures, stole millions in real estate, stole historic valuables from the WH when Bill and I left, broke, whacked at least 500 people including Kadaffy, and it goes on and on. I mean, if you were me, an evil, power-hungry bitch whose appetite for power is insatiable like Adolf Hitler, you wouldn't know the Truth if it slapped you in the face, but, yes, I try to be honest."

nmewn's picture

lol...she's such an outrageous, accomplished at lying, evil bitch...I do believe at this point even if she said...

"Yes Scott. I do expect to lie yet again in the future and I'm here to tell the American people I will in fact lie to them over & over again, forever." 

We would suspect her of lying about that ;-)

nmewn's picture

It all depends on what everyone thinks her definition of "I don't believe I ever have" is, despite all evidence & common knowledge to the contrary. Which is why Scott Pelley asked her in the first place.

Personally, "I believe" she's a raving psychotic who genuinely believes she has never lied.

Element's picture

Personally, "I believe" she's a raving psychotic who genuinely believes she has lied, and thinks, "what difference does it make?!" I was going to say she's the most odious deranged person I've seen run for the US Presidency, but I can't say that in all honesty when I look around as there are current and former to consider, and other present aspirants as well.

Count your freedums nwewn at least you have the right to not vote without breaking the law. If you refuse to vote in Australia you get fined by the governement admin you refused to vote for.

Element's picture

You're understating the case a bit aren't you George? I hear there's going to be at least three nuclear wars. Which is a little bit scary, to be honest. Not that I want to imply you're pedaling silly click bait once again, it's just a bit disconcerting to know these things, and feel the duty weighing on me to tell the world of the doom set to befall everyone. It's quite wearing on a chap. Will I be all right if I follow your advice Georges? I need to know! I like what you're saying but can you help in any way with this? ... any way at all? ... no? .... shit.

Well, thanks for nuthin' ... you almost saved us ... not too bad really ... unlikely beginnings and all ... cheerio!

 

 

 

btw, if anyone actually believed it ... they wouldn't be reading this crap ... just look up the thread ... feel good?  haha!

Perimetr's picture

The long-term environmental consequences of nuclear war are likely to kill most humans and animal species.

see https://www.nucleardarkness.org/

TheCentralScrutinizer's picture

Really now??   The author actually believes that Putin will use Nuclear weapons on Syrian (Arab) territory and NOT recognize that would be perceived as a nuclear attack on ALL ARABS (Muslims)?

What greater excuse would Sunni (Arab) Muslims have for calling for an all-out Jihad upon "Mother Russia".

What percentage of the Russian population is Muslim right now?  11%?   How many Muslims live in Moscow alone?  Something like 1.5 million?

And Putin is going to use tactical nukes against an Arab/Sunni Muslim intervention force made up of 20+ countries, to include (nuclear armed) Pakistan?

Really now?   If this is the case, Russians need to really ask themselves exactly what is it about Syria that risks not just nuclear retaliation, but also becoming the new "Great Satan" against which ALL Muslims will feel compelled to fight.. 

Again, 11% of Russia is Muslim.   Use nukes against Muslims and you're going to unleash a religious shitstorm.. 

Scrutinizer

David Wooten's picture

"Use nukes against Muslims and you're going to unleash a religious shitstorm"

Russia isn't concerned about Turkey because it's Muslim.  He is concerned about Turkey because it belongs to NATO - an organization whose aggregate population (900m) is more than 6 times Russia's 145m and whose aggegate GDP is 37 trillion - more than 18 times Russia's 2 trillion.  In a strictly conventional war with NATO, Putin would likely end up being rear-ended withe a bayonet like Qadaffi or hanged like Saddam - as would other Russian leaders.  It's a good bet that they would prefer a more painless end with nukes. And even it they wouldn't, NATO military planners wouldn't take a chance on it.  They would immediately try to destroy Russia's nuclear arsenal - with nukes - and the Russians know.  That is, for the Russians, it's use 'em or lose 'em.

Joe A's picture

Except that when Turkey goes about it alone in Syria then NATO art. 5 does not count. America would pressure European countries for 'solidarity' but Erdogan is deeply hated by European leaders at this moment -except for Mutti but she is finished-. Remember, Europeans share a continent with Russia and don't want to have any conflict with them there. Unlike America that whenever there is a conflict with Russia would prefer to fight out that conflict in Europe and let's say not in Alaska. "Fuck the EU"? Fuck Ukraine. Not worth risking nuclear destruction for.

And as far as taking out Russia nuclear arsenal is concerned: good luck with that. They have mobile installations placed allover and there are plenty of sub around as well. Just like the US has. Apparently the 'first strike will take care of our nuclear opponent'-doctrine is surfacing again. MAD is assured.

TheCentralScrutinizer's picture

Turkey should be more concerned about Putin's "Vassal or Enemy" policies towards it's neighbors.   Russia seems to be supporting the Kurdish YPG now (as has the US to a more limited extent).   And there are signs the PKK, which were orginally sponsored by Soviet Russia, are again looking to Moscow for support.

But Putin and Erdogan both have huge egos and delusions of self-importance.  However, in the case of Erdogan, he can assert that Syria is a critical threat to Turkey, if only due to the refugee issue.

HOWEVER, my original point still stands..   IF Saudi Arabia can convince 20 different Arab and assorted Muslim countries to intervene in Syria, then it pretty much makes it an Arab issue (which it really is) and Putin will have to decide if Russia's interests in having bases in the Med are worth escalating the matter to a conventional, let alone nuclear, response? 

I don't have a lot of confidence in the capabilities of Arab military forces, but it's likely that 200-300 thousand soldiers, and associated armor and air assets, might put Putin in a position where he is left trying to defend an Alawite segregated portion of Syria around their Latakia bases.

And don't underestimate the response where Russia to become the first country to use nuclear weapons since WWII, not to mention using them against Arabs..    

Putin strikes me as too calculating and cunny to open the nuclear pandora's box over Syria..   Ukraine?  Maybe..   But not Syria..

 

Scrutinizer 

David Wooten's picture

"But Putin and Erdogan both have huge egos and delusions of self-importance."

Erdogan, perhaps. But Putin shows no signs of having those 'qualities'.  He is likely concerned about NATO's borders being pushed 1000m eastward and the US government gaining control of countries on its borders like Ukraine and Georgia.

Furthermore, Syria itself is a majority (Sunni) Muslim country that supports its secular Alawite President, Bashar Assad (whose wife is a Sunni), whereas Turkey is a NATO country (Muslim or not) and Saudi Arabia is a US protectorate and oppressive state (Muslim or not).  So Muslims around the world are not likely to be any angrier at Putin than they are already just because Russia nukes some Turks invading Syria.

maxwellsdemon's picture

The Sunni Muslims seemed to have not cared one bit when Israhell unleashes nukes on the Syrians.   Plus, Russia can just drop a bunch of huge bombs (the MOAB equivalent in their arenal) on the Sunni military forces crossing the desert and turn the invading Muslims into a larger version of the Highway of Death that the US did to Iraq in the first Gulf war.

monad's picture

Were you there? Testify or stfu. People are confused enough by the deranged press shite as it is. 

Victory_Garden's picture

On deck, runnin sum awesome fresh ground coffee beans this eve in which everybody feels it coming. Like Christmas is coming, only the complete opposite energy. The worst. Gum drops, pies, cookies, and sweet treats in dreams?

Beyond that, please to scuse the addendum to the above epistle. Here's a link to the preamble of the TPP agreement and boy by golly, what a totalitarian/communist/un/new world oder bag of bullswax this pile of elephant shat is. Like wowie!

Let this go viral and study the rest of the trash linked below. HARD COPY! It is gawfully awfully mind blowing. Follow your heart, people.

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Trans-Pacific-Partnership/...

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/about-us/who-we-are/treaty-making-process/tr...

 

 

***Yo Sir Tyler, kinda boring on deck. Will ya bring up that hitlery hag corruption story to the top of the mast head for the crew to throw darts at. Por favor!