Has The Market Crash Only Just Begun?

Tyler Durden's picture

Having successfully called the market's retreat in the fall of 2015, Universa's Mark Spitznagel is not taking a victory lap as he warns Bloomberg TV that "the crash has only just begun."

Investors are facing the most binary "let's make a deal" market in history in Spitznagel's view: choose Door #1 to bet on Keynesianism, central planners, and monetary interventionism; or Door #2 to bet on free markets and natural price discovery.

"There is massive cognitive dissonance here," Spitznagel explains as history teaches us that door #2 is the right choice... but it's not possible to do that today as investors have been coerced to choose door #1, but when door #1 is slammed open "we will see that dreaded black swan monster."

That is what is going on right now:

"Investors want to go with The Fed when it's working - like David Zervos... the problem is, when do you know that it is not working?"

"At some point this stops working..."


"the market is going through a resolution process, transitioning from the cognitive dissonance of Door #1 to the harsh reality of Door #2... if everyone were to change doors at the same time, that is a market crash... it can't be done in a non-messy way."

Must watch reality check behind the smoke and mirrors we call markets... (we note Mark's excellent analogy starting at around 3:10)

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lim's picture

Paging user Cognitive Dissonance

InjectTheVenom's picture

you had me at dreaded black swan monster ........

SuperRay's picture

Yeah, yeah, I keep hearing this. Meanwhile WTF is going on? Are there that many coke snorting traders that out of touch with reality and willing to lick Janet's clit for just one more intervention? And what is up with all those 'brilliant' hedge fund douche bags who have played this game for almost eight years, knowing what the inevitable outcome would be? They should all be thrown in jail.

new game's picture

big disgrace, jizz all over his face, we will rock you...

talk about it, talk about it, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

wake me up when the zombies are killing each other....

0b1knob's picture

< dreaded black swan monster

< flying spagetti monster


Which do you most fear?

NoDebt's picture

Lower lows and lower highs.  It's what's for dinner in 2016.


WTFRLY's picture

Doom porn will be a reality

Durrmockracy's picture
Durrmockracy (not verified) WTFRLY Feb 19, 2016 6:17 PM

I don't just hope they ban cash.  I hope they NIRP your nipples until they turn purple.  I hope they charge your account a $500 monthly fee$10,000 overdraft fee and $5,000,000 NSF fee. I hope you get sent a case of Spiderman Towels on your Visa from your bank (that you didn't order).  I hope they cold call you and your wife at 3AM to say "do you have the time to take a survey?'  I hope they rape your a$$ good as long as you're dumb enough to stay in their system!

clymer's picture

someone, anyone please shut that bobblehead up. She seems to feel the need to pipe-up with a louder-than-required voice as if the need to justify her existence takes priority over the information itself. The hillary-like shrill doesn't help matters. (i'm talking about the bobblehead, not you Durrmockracy - although it's easy to confuse the two of you)

Durrmockracy's picture
Durrmockracy (not verified) clymer Feb 19, 2016 6:22 PM

Yeah you better not be.. I'm on a roll here...

DownWithYogaPants's picture

That man-broad is annoying as fuck.  And stupid too.  

God damn I mean she literally could probably pound in nails using her forehead and not feel a thing.

Keyser's picture

It's like Easy Street, you can't get there from here... Same thing, you cannot migrate from Door 1 to Door 2 without a collapse in the interim... By the way the Bloomberg numpties were squirming in their seats on every point that Spitznagel made, they know it too... 

Doña K's picture

Let's just call it a gray swan and get on with it. When a large hedge fund heads for the exits and cannot, the system will be blamed as unable to handle the number and speed of the selling. That will be the black swan. 

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Does that bitch have a volume control, a mute button would be better.


Durradummass - the jelly roll. Nasty fatses on the outsides from putting the lotion on it's skins, and nasty fillingses on the inside. Ewwww.

kamikun's picture

Coke is a great performance enhancer for speakers... makes you feel ten times smarter and alacritous than you usually are. Of course, others don't see it that way - just seems to make you loud and freakin' jumpy and annoying.

marts321's picture

wake me up when the zombies are killing eating each other....



e_goldstein's picture

Yeah, strikethrough doesn't work in the peanut gallery (and now you know).

Dolus's picture

I just threw up in my mouth. Thanks.

Abiotic Oil's picture

Janet Yellen has a clitoris?

Talk about some cognitive dissonance.

Escrava Isaura's picture



new SuperRay: Yeah, yeah, I keep hearing this. Meanwhile WTF is going on? What is up with all those 'brilliant' hedge fund douche bags who have played this game for almost eight years, knowing what the inevitable outcome would be? They should all be thrown in jail.


Predictable Outcome Symbolizes Intent

Ray, 1971 growth in the US was over because US oil started its decline. So, what did you expect the financial sector would do?

What did you expect the manufactures would do but not to move production overseas?

Now about your statement: ….who have played this game for almost eight years. They should all be thrown in jail.

Financialization of the economy started in 1970’s. We’ve being playing financialization for over 40 years.

We’ve being offshoring jobs for over 30 years.

Now, six megabanks whose assets amount to more than 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

All the while we have ideology and propaganda to dumbdown and indoctrinate the general population iin steroids.

Do you want to find out what comes next? Compared 1920’s Germany versus 1930’s Germany. From a high culture society to raven’s lunatics in less than 15 years.

13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown



Supernova Born's picture

Ruehl's brain fell out at the end of the aviation analogy @3:23

BlueStreet's picture

The chick is obnoxious. Mark is an adult among children but he's probably sitting there thinking this is why we're all fucked. She calls what we've seen a market crash, ha. You ain't seen nothing yet baby. You might want to try a career in sports broadcasting instead. You've got that desperate wanna be one of the boys vibe going on. 

Consuelo's picture



The only thing I thought about watching this cunt flap her gums was...



DownWithYogaPants's picture

I would not fuck her with your dick!

That man-broad is annoying as fuck.  And stupid too.  

God damn I mean she literally could probably pound in nails using her forehead and not feel a thing.

The best Sun's picture

Yeah, the nasty hate fuck is some good sex though.

decon's picture

You're exactly right, everything about her was like fingernails on a chalkboard for me.  I wanted to smack her head with a 2x4.

The best Sun's picture

Then screw her?

Dude! Wa chicka wa wa.

That be some fucked up shit.

Spitzer's picture

She is fine compared to that disgusting cunt that goes after Peter Schiff all the time. And its not bc she disagrees with Schiff. I just don't like her. At all.

hawaiian waverider's picture

Exactly what I was thinking.  He uses restraint with her and class knowing she is going to get pummleded and is one who dispenses with detrimental blabber to the masses all day long as if it's some finanicial soap opera.

hawaiian waverider's picture

Check her dropped jaw when he is explaining the plane/yoke dynamic 3:25.  She's like.."you pull it back then push forward when you fly a plane?"

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Yeah I saw that.  It's like an alien landed and started giving her the run down on the tried and true method for cold fusion.

bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

The market is trying to find a buyer with cash and finding non will ask the Fed to buy what it has baught.

One-Eyed-Thong's picture
One-Eyed-Thong (not verified) Feb 19, 2016 3:55 PM


One-Eyed-Thong's picture
One-Eyed-Thong (not verified) One-Eyed-Thong Feb 19, 2016 3:56 PM


Pool Shark's picture



[Thanks for play, though...]


vq1's picture

hate to be a stickler- 

your second was actually the third comment.

InjectTheVenom's picture

you had me at dreaded black swan monster .....

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Don't be so mean. Poor thing hasn't done shit for his life. Maybe someday he will get a pony and life will be grand.


Yen Cross's picture

   Nice post Miffed. "Maybe someday he will get a Unicorn and life will be grand." :-)

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Well Mr smiles at me and claims he already has received his unicorn but I really think that's a ploy to get sex.;-)

Nice to see you Yen. Now if only Angus shows up my smile will be complete.


Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Well not a smile but a hearty belly laugh! And I am most thankful the one end was displayed rather than the other.

Thanks my friend,


jerry_theking_lawler's picture

He should ride up to one of the 12 non-Federal Reserve Banks....I hear they are giving out Unicorns daily.

The Saint's picture

Somebody buy that man a suit and tie.  Maybe then he will be credible..