Why According To One Bank, Massive Central Bank Intervention Is Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture

Any time the relative performance of global financials to US Treasuries has stumbled as far as it has, as shown in the chart below, it has meant one thing - a major central bank intervention was imminent.

At least that's the interpretation of BofA's Michael Hartnett, who shows that in order to provide the kick for the bounce in this all too important "deflationary leading indicator", central banks engaged in major unorthodox easing episodes, whether QE1-3, or the ECB's QE.


Why intervene now? Here are the problems according to Hartnett:

  • Problem 1: US economy in “bad Goldilocks”, i.e. US economy not hot/strong enough to lift global GDP & EPS; but not cold/bad enough to induce global coordinated response 
  • Problem 2: global policy-maker rhetoric in recent days shows “coordinated innocence” not stimulus, all blaming global economy for weak domestic economies (“Overseas factors are to blame”…Japan PM Abe; "drag on U.S. economy from greater-than-expected-slowdown in China & other EM economies“…FOMC minutes; “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy”…ECB Draghi; “the change in China’s growth rate can be attributed in part to weak performance of the global economy”…PBoC)

Problem 2 is static, meant for media propaganda and jawboning; it can easily be removed once the global economy takes the next leg lower.  Which incidentally would also resolve the gating factor of Problem 1 - as we have said for months, the Fed and its central bank peers need the political cover to launch more stimulus.

And in a reflexive world, where the "economy is the market", this means just one thing - a big leg lower in stocks is the necessary and sufficient condition to once again push stocks higher, as policy failure is internalized, and global risk reprises from square 1.

This is Bank of America's summary, warning that unless a major policy intervention is enacted, the market will then sell off to the next support level, below the 1,812 which has proven so stable since August.

Stabilization of “4C’s” (China, Commodities, Credit, Consumer) allowed SPX 1800 to hold/bounce to 1950-2000; weak policy stimulus in coming weeks could end rally/risk fresh declines to induce growth-boosting policy accord.

Here is a summary of the near-term events which stocks are betting on do not disappoint: G20 Shanghai (February 26-27); ECB (March 10), BoJ (March 15) & FOMC (March 16).

And as documented previously, the one main near-term event Hartnett is focusing on is the Shanghai meeting next weekend. Recall:

We remain sellers into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response (e.g. Shanghai Accord) begins to reverse the deterioration in global profit expectations (currently heading sharply south – Chart 1) and credit conditions.

In other words, Hartnett expects a "Shanghai Accord" to be unveiled next weekend, one where like the Plaza Accord three decades earlier, the Yuan will be massively depreciated, which ironically would halt all piecemeal Yuan devaluation on expectation of future devaluation (as it will have already happened), and reset global monetary policy stability if only for a few more months.

Said otherwise, if next weekend the G-20 disappoints and unveils nothing, the next big leg down in the selloff will have arrived.

How likely is such a major intervention? Keep an eye on the recently surging price of Bitcoin for the answer, and also Vancouver real estate, of course.

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Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Intervention is "imminent"?? Like the sun rising in the east, it happens every day.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) VinceFostersGhost Feb 20, 2016 10:05 AM

We're at Defcon 0.  Soon Defcon -1.


KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Father Thyme Feb 20, 2016 10:13 AM

Joshua what are you doing!?!

Nutsack's picture
Nutsack (not verified) Father Thyme Feb 20, 2016 10:23 AM

Well, we can't have collapse during the Magic Kneegrow's watch, can we?

InjectTheVenom's picture

well.....maybe we can...and if the collapse is bad enough, like, enough to warrant a "temporary" (*coughindefinitecough*) state of martial law, of course coincidentally right before the November election, then the Magic Kneegrow can, for the good of the country ya know, "temporarily" (*coughindefinitelycough*) suspend the election...

ok, enough of my conspiracy talk, i gotta go hit Walgreens for some more cough syrup.

InjectTheVenom's picture

just got back from Walgreens and was thinking more about my analysis...realizing that maybe i'm wrong 'cuz in reality that kinda stuff only happens in  banana rep .... nevermind

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) InjectTheVenom Feb 20, 2016 10:47 AM

You have not yet admitted enough of your guilt. Confess! Confess!


The Magical Negro serves as a plot device to help the protagonist get out of trouble, typically through helping the white character recognize his own faults and overcome them.

Restorative_Ally's picture

Fiat currency is like enriched Uranium. 

It decays as time passes. 

It has the capability of being incredibly destructive.

You and I are not allowed to make it.

It is often used as a means of exerting influencing governments and controlling populations.

And the best way to shield yourself from its negative effects is with lead.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Restorative_Ally Feb 20, 2016 12:03 PM

All money is fiat, even gold. Gold just has that way of being less fictional of a value than paper or digits because it's physical and rare.

[A] banknote is simply the promise to pay something of the same value as an ounce of gold. But that’s all that money ever is. There’s no fundamental difference in this respect between a silver dollar, a Susan B. Anthony dollar coin made of a copper-nickel alloy designed to look vaguely like gold, a green piece of paper with a picture of George Washington on it, or a digital blip on some bank’s computer. Conceptually, the idea that a piece of gold is really just an IOU is always rather difficult to wrap one’s head around, but something like this must be true, because even when gold and silver coins were in use, they almost never circulated at their bullion value.
David Graeber (2011) Debt: The First 5,000 Years

Holding it (or silver) is simply a put against the Fed, and I'm willing to take that bet, sans the typical goldbug magical-thinkery that gold has "intrinsic" value. LOL. Sure, try eating it, and show me how "intrinsic" of value it is to humans. No, it's only of value inside a make-believe story, an imagined reality.

Gold coins and dollar bills have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the metal or paper, nor in their color or shape. Money isn’t a material reality—it is a mental construct. It works by converting matter into mind. But why does it succeed?
Why is money the only thing in the world everyone trusts?
Yuval Harari

Keep Stackin' Gold, the less-contrived fiat.



Soul Glow's picture

Gold is an agreed upon form of money, hence not fiat, for fiat means "something by decree", like how I don't think the dollar has any value but I act like it do because the government declares it does.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Soul Glow Feb 20, 2016 12:21 PM

an agreed upon form of money

Cite?  But even agreements are means to do something, hence gold is fiat (Latin for "let it be done") by your own admission.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Let me see if I understand what effect central banks have. The central bank prints $100B and hands it to the their friends. The friends plow the cash into stocks driving them up. That attracts foreign capital driving the currency up. That makes exports less competitive so that the economy turns dow so the central bank has to print more. Have I got that right?

Soul Glow's picture

ie gold, yet all over the world and forever since the dawn of society gold has been used as a means of exchange.  SUre sometimes an ounce of gold will buy one horse, or two, but it will always buy something.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Soul Glow Feb 20, 2016 4:51 PM

all over the world and forever since the dawn of society

Again, pure LoLbertarian Bullshit.

There are plenty of human societies in which gold had zero value, and it just sat there for the picking. Maybe take a class in college? Nah, colleges are becoming abjectly worthless, but there are still plenty of good books on history and anthropology at your local library.

Or keep sucking your libertarian thumb -- it is emotionally comforting.

since the dawn of society

No, since the Dawn of Debt, only a few thousand years ago. Gold is a great way to account for Owing the Man.


waterwitch's picture

I see you've been around for 4 weeks +



Deathrips's picture

Currency is a promise to be delivered. Fiat currency is a lie. Tangible things are trade. Fungible things are what keeps dishonest greed from getting ahold of printing fiat presses the bellweather of accountability.





InjectTheVenom's picture

so, legit question for you Father Thyme ... why do pretty much all the big central banks currently own/buying fuckloads of gold ?  

undertow1141's picture

Gold is not FIAT currency and has nothing to do with agreements. Gold has intrinsitc value. Paper dollars do not. That's the difference.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) undertow1141 Feb 20, 2016 2:50 PM

 Gold has intrinsitc value.

Sorry, but repeating that mantra over and over doesn't make it true. Air, shelter, water, food: those have natural (intrinsic) value to humans

We civilized humans give gold or paper slips value via an imagined reality. The advantage of gold is that our imagined value of it is based on a physical property. That's a better value than say, 72 virgins, or promised bananas in heaven for good little monkeys.

Bananas in heaven | Yuval Noah Harari | TEDxJaffa


Kayman's picture

On the topic at hand.

I am hoping the BOJ finally realizes the endgame of ZIRP/NIRP is Seppuku.

I think that once a ritual disembowelment becomes a requirement for Cental Banking, then this current insanity of self-appointment as the god of economic wonderment will decline in popularity.

daveO's picture

It would take a revolution in Japan to stop their DC puppet masters from siphoning them dry. Before that happens, they'll be dragged into war with China.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Father Thyme ... too many times in history people have died for gold when they could have sat at home with food, water, and shelter.  There are hundreds of millions of bodies laid to rest in the name of gold. Pirates, miners, soldiers, adventurers, con-men, burglars, etc.  The allure of gold has transcended the instinct for survival itself.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Stuck on Zero Feb 20, 2016 4:26 PM

too many times in history people have died for

Oh, I see. People die for flags too. And for paper money. When they could have sat home enjoying sandwich (which does have intrinsic value.) So, by your reasoning, flags and paper money have the same value as gold.


And by that choice of terms you reveal your magical thinking.

Dethrone The Banksters's picture

The building blocks of the universe form unique, non-replicable (for the most part) Elements. Most of these elements do not exist by themselves; at least at pressures/temperatures that humans can survive. Of those that do --- most are quite common (Carbon, Iron, Lead); or extremly, extremely rare.

Gold and Silver hit the sweet spot --- very rare; but not EXTREMLY rare; reasonably rare enough to be used as money, but not so rare that it's almost impossible to find in most places of the Earth.

This is why Gold and Silver have value. Whether that's "intrinsic" or not is up to debate; but obvoiusly anyone who thinks fiat currency is even CLOSE to elements forged in a supernova is --- pretty dumb. 

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Lemme guess... David Graber isn't biased at all, nor is he from the Moneychangers Tribe, right?

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Kirk2NCC1701 Feb 20, 2016 2:28 PM

I'm sure he's very biased. Nevertheless, a study of history and anthropology demolishes the libertarian fantasies about how money originated.

ISEEIT's picture

My meth addicted, homeless brother agrees with you.

He also says that gold/silver has no genuine value.

Apparently that just depends on your perspective.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) ISEEIT Feb 20, 2016 4:44 PM

My meth addicted, homeless brother pans for gold.

"...many gold prospectors as homeless vagabonds..."
Meet the Rugged Prospectors Still Panning for Gold in California
Wired Magazine

USGrant's picture

Lewis Carrol has already dealt with this form of argument. "“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – – that’s all.”

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) USGrant Feb 20, 2016 4:27 PM


Cadavre's picture

A lot of professional boomers voted for that sock puppet. Reason: The TV told them thaey were racists. And, despite the fact none of them had a real racist bone in their body, they believed themselves to be racists. And, they really be;sieved, and many still do, that the Diebold selection of our bloodied handed prince of pieces of flesh, half white, whorehouse sock puppet UN peace prize sissy would absolve them of a sin they never committed.

Today we learned that the head r\wrangler and top honcho of the Cibilo Ranch, Boing Poindexter, was a hand shaking picture in the oval office contributor to our 4th shame in a row (Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Barry).

We also learn that a justice of the peace, without any medical training and probably no more than almost a completed program at some borderline border Junior College, could pronounce Scalia dead (that usually requires, unless the head has been decapitated, a doctor's examination, performed in a hospital, and the examining doctor's signature. The dumb down of US medicos must be the cause, most are probably like this guy, both comedian, fireman and fraud, just one of many multi role actors at Sandy Hoax.

I guess ya don't need a real coroner for an event, that according to the FBI, no one died, well at least they couldn't report the deaths, cause it was the realm of the state police - Dear FBI a murder stat is a murder stat. That's one of the tasks in your mission policy - that's what we pay you for.

In fact, some Sandy Hoax actors were so good they got contracts to perform in the allied Paris Attack dramatic production, and out very famous homegrown theatrical production, San Bernardino (where witnesses described the shooters as beefy white guys - guessing cause th Adam Lanza, a 80 lb weakling, who could tote all the ordinance the story claims he packed, and, who never existed until that day, didn't get the the positive reviews the production team had hoped for.

Has anyone here ever listened to Eagles of Death Metal music - they fucking suck.

So bacl to the Cibilio Ranch - don't SC Justices have a security team? Would somebody as important as Scalia, at the very least, warrant guards or security am eras. Come on ...

Wonder what Napolitano thoughts are regarding Scalia. Wondering why Scalia's family hasn't demanded an autopsy.

We also also know why the batshit copyright violation turd was voted in: So wiebsites could publish pre-edited facts of these very almost dramitical productions. Anything on the net should be fair use as long as it's attributed. Sure sure - every coroner on the planet and every parent in the world is A-Ok with leaving their dead child's body in an abandoned school, to ripen up overnight just  a tad fore they take kiddie's body to the funeral home.

daveO's picture

3 days ago Hussein said he wouldn't attend Scalia's funeral. Then, according to their SOP, news of Harper Lee's death was reported on Friday around 12pm EST. Well, guess what. She's already in the ground!

"The author of the America classic "To Kill a Mockingbird" was laid to rest Saturday, in a private ceremony attended by only the closest of friends and family, a reflection of how she had lived...Harper Lee, who died Friday at age 89, was eulogized at a church in the small Alabama town of Monroeville, which the author used as a model for the imaginary town of Maycomb, the setting of Lee's Pulitzer Prize-winning novel...A few dozen people who comprised Lee's intimate circle gathered at the First United Methodist Church to hear a eulogy Saturday by her longtime friend and history professor, Wayne Flynt. Afterward, her casket was taken by silver hearse to an adjacent cemetery where her father, A.C. Lee and sister, Alice Lee, are buried."

This one's right up there with Hussein's granny's death and Osama's supposed death shortly after the birth certificate incident. The timing is too perfect, again.  From, http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-harper-lee-dies-20160219-s...

"The old manuscript(Go Set a Watchman) was discovered in a bank vault by Lee’s lawyer, Tonja B. Carter. Her accounts of the discovery varied; she said she might have handled it in 2011 without realizing what it was, but in 2014 she ascertained that it was not, as she first believed, merely a rough draft of “Mockingbird.”

The sudden appearance of a second novel raised suspicions that Lee, who had a stroke in 2007, was not fully engaged in the decision to publish it. HarperCollins announced the book’s release just a few months after the death of Alice Lee, the author’s older sister and a prominent local attorney (Lee called her “Atticus in a skirt”), who had long acted as her legal and literary guardian.

In 2011, Alice had commented on her sister’s frailties. “Poor Nelle Harper can’t see and can’t hear and will sign anything put before her by anyone in whom she has confidence,” Alice, calling her sister by her given name, wrote in a statement disputing a claim that Lee had cooperated with writer Marja Mills’ memoir about them.

Alabama investigators, acting on a complaint that Lee had been tricked into publishing the second novel, interviewed the author at her Monroeville nursing home but determined that she had consented to its publication....

Alice Lee died in November 2014 at 103....Less than three months later came the astounding announcement that a second novel would soon be in readers’ hands."

So, it appears that ''Go Set a Watchman'' may have been contrived! A propagandist being used for propaganda one last time on her way to the graveyard. Reminds me of Operation Mockingbird. They never quit with the BS.
Cadavre's picture

Scalia is GI. IOW he is an asset belonging to the commons, therefore, the determination of autopsy is the realm of the commons, his employer, and not his family.

You'd think a heart condition would present and cause death on the take off or landing of his flight to Cibilo Ranch.

In texas, as with most states, penel code requires death, except for decapitations, to be dertimined by a coroner in a hospital

A mexican sneaking across the border, and gets smushed by a train, but not decapitated, automatically undergoes an autopsy. It fucking the Rule of Law. But a supreme court justice don't - WTF?

A JP who almost got her associates degree cannot sign a death certificate.

Chief Justice Roberts, rumor has, recently survived an assination attempt.

300 Million American assholes are the last fucks on earth the turdfucks running theis obvious game should ever even consider fucking with. WHO THE FUCK DO THEY THINK THEY'RE FUCKING WITH? Even god fears us. 

So where is the ACLU. Scalia's body was flown back home without a proper death certificate. Texas penal code requires a coroners exam and a signed death certificate, period.

Debra Palfrey found in a wood shed behind the house of a mother who nutured a prostitute. Palfrey's mother said no autopsy, too. One of Palfrey's employees hung heng her self. Palfrey said on live TV she was not even considering suicide, but ws looking forward to her day in court. Port Goss and some other scumbag Diebold selectees were playing poker with loosing lobbyists in a Watergate blow job suite. Palfrey said she had information that would be of interest to the 911 commission.

Women don't hang themselves.

I read JFK had a brain still in his skull when he left Dallas,with  out the legally required autopsy, over the objections of the medical examiner, and ended up at Bethesda without any brain remaining in his skull. WTF?

This is bullshit - do the Diebold K Street kiidie fondlers think they are immune to being Mussolini-ed. The got another thing coming.

Pickleton's picture

I'm thinking their lackluster election ...'handling'?.... is because there's nothing the left would LOVE more than having a Republican elected and then have this shit show come tumbling down. 



I mean, look at the real history of civil rights in this country and somehow the left have convinced their buffoon constituency that they're the party of civil rights and the republicans have been the party of racism and opression.


You don't think they'll forever brand "captialism" and republicans as the cause of the collapse should that happen?  And how many MILLIONS of low info buffoons will believe that shit.


Whether or not you ascribe more to whatever political party, that's the way that shit will play out.



daveO's picture

True, but they're also ginning up a lot of segregation talk amongst blacks(think black Oscars). Also, in my post above, Go Set a Watchman's release seems to have been timed a little too perfectly. It seems to me the Deep State is preparing to jettison the overly expensive welfare state from the sinking ship of state. Also, they may want blacks to think it was their own idea and whites to have a renewed cold indifference.

lunaticfringe's picture

That's a fact. NNNNNNever in the history of this country have so many forces collaborated to cover for an idiot like this- based entirely I believe on the color of his skin.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) lunaticfringe Feb 20, 2016 10:49 AM

Washington D.C. is like a gigantic Kentucky Creationist Museum for our dearly beloved Liberal Creationists brethren. It's a barrel of laughs when you tour the display of their belief system.


Lordflin's picture

You know... I have tried to be nice about this stuff... but frankly I am getting tired of ignorant morons claiming the intellectual high road as an explanation for their simpleton view of existence.

Evolution, as is taught to the masses, is a debunked theory. And all attempts to revive it have fallen short... beginning... wait for it... with the problem of creation.

I was preparing for a career in molecular genetics once upon a time, but drifted into chemistry instead. What, pray tell, is your background?

Btw... I didn't down flag you... you probably can't help yourself...

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

So if not "evolution as taught to the masses", how did we come to be, oh Lord Flin?

Father Thyme's picture

And how shall we fuck off, O Lord?  ;)

I suppose that even math, "as taught to the masses," is debunked theory.

Lordflin's picture

Debunked... what could that mean?

Well let me see... The fossil record... demonstrates a history of stability punctuated with sudden massive die offs and an abundance of new life forms appearing immediately after... see the Cambrium explosion, though there are many others.

Genes severely limited in terms of variance. So much so that the classic examples used in the classroom involve point mutations. There was an article a few years back in Scientific American on isolated Stickleback populations purporting to be a classic demonstration of Darwinism at work... all point mutations. Talk about disingenuous bullcrap...

Of course there is the momentous problem of irreducible complexity, and the almost ludricoous attempts at a work around...

And then there is creation... absolutely no viable theories to explain the existence of unbelievably complex process that take place in highly regulated and controlled environments. See for example the highly organized structure of cytoplasm, once thought to be a gelatinous soup. And cellular life, as it turns out, arose almost at the same time as the planet became covered in water...

Darinism is pushed to the masses because Science needs a creation theory in order to achieve divinity. No true geneticist believes it, but there is no fall back position, so it continues to get press while the search continues...

The best explanation to date is that in the beginning God said let their be light. Guess that makes me a gun toting Bible thumper... or just maybe a man of rational intellect...

An as an aside, I have two daughters. One has degrees in biology and chemistry and is going on to her PhD in biology... the other one has a degree in physics, obtained in three years, has spent two more years pursuing biology and chemistry, and will take the MCAT in May. Among her many awards she is a Goldwater Scholar. We are not haters of science around here, rather we try to keep a healthy respect for its limitations.

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Lordflin Feb 20, 2016 12:33 PM

unbelievably complex process that take place in highly regulated and controlled environments

Ah, your ubiquitous Creationist Talking Point has been noted and indexed here:

CB010.1. Even the simplest life is incredibly complex.
Index to Creationist Claims

And of course, a typical Creationist talking point is that they don't hate science. Oh sure.

Do creationists hate science? - Creation Ministries

SixIsNinE's picture

for true science lovers - here is the blockbuster film we've been waiting for :


you can find some yt principle on there but the makers are trying to at least cover the expenses - but you can listen to the directors interviews, etc on yt and maybe find a stream available

also, here's another big clue for us :

https://youtu.be/5o8jLu_MjBc  -  the Global Lie


noless's picture

If the reason you can't accept evolution is because the big bang sounds exactly like the creation myth and can never be supported by evidence then you need to chill out, the universe doesn't start or end, those are just conceptions formulated by minds that live finite existences attempting to project their own limitations onto inanimate forces.

Kickaha's picture

When I was a kid in the 1950's, I looked at a map of the world and immediately concluded that South America fit neatly into the shape of Africa, like peices of a puzzle, and that those two continents had obviously been joined together at one point in the distant past, then had drifted inexorably apart.  I thought of melted chocolate, with pieces of cooled and hardened delight drifting on top of the still molten goo at the bottom of the pot.  My thoughts were not original ones, but I had arrived at the idea independently, because plate techtonics was not widely accepted as a valid geologic theory for another decade or so and was not being taught in elementary schools back then.

I am just as certain that at some point a super-massive black hole, the core of which is a mind-boggling contradiction of all we otherwise know about the space-time continuum, where matter is at the same time so hot and so dense that nothing moves and therefore no time can be measured, will eventually rip through the boundaries of our universe and form its own new one.  There have been many Big Bangs, and there are many universes, and entropy will never prevail.

Some people feel the need to imagine  a God totally in charge of the multi-verse, and take comfort in that idea.  Others, like myself, find proselytizing to be depressing, nothing more than a reminder that billions of people worldwide cannot motivate or control themselves absent the vague threat of retribution or reward from a divine being after their lives have come to an end.

A co-worker once engaged me in debate, and suggested to me that if the sole purpose in life was to worship God, how tragic it would be for me to have gone down the wrong path.  It seems to me that, to the contrary, those fanatics who posit that the worship of God above all else is the sole purpose of our earthly existence have been responsible for a huge chunk of human misery throughout history, similar to what the Muslim extremists are wreaking presently.  Besides, I had a date scheduled that night with an 18-yr old beauty with a smile that could light up a hemisphere, skin like brushed velvet, shoulder length auburn hair, and larger than average alabaster breasts, firm and high, with prominent nipples when she got excited, so my mind wandered from the debate.  Life is too short as is.

neutrino3's picture

Shut. The fuck. Up. em drooooooolin :)=

Youthanising, back in those snap-up times, with all those bjuuuuttifull God's creatures with fresh clean smell ... shetorturers. 

Father Thyme's picture
Father Thyme (not verified) Kickaha Feb 20, 2016 3:46 PM

Good thoughts. I concur that we've likely been through many universes.

Enjoy your evening!

“Girls are simply wonderful." --Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers


noless's picture

Be surprised you wake up at all, I think, is your advice.