Gold's Largest Inflows Since June 2009 Unleash Bullish "Golden Cross" Pattern

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the first time since Gold suffered a "death cross" in 2014, the largest 3-week inflows into gold funds since June 2009 have set up a so-called bullish "golden cross" pattern in the precious metal.

On the week, BofA's Michael Hartnett reports big precious metals inflows of $2.6bn as investors flee from stocks (equity outflows of $2.7bn).

This adds up to the largest 3-week inflows to gold ($5.8bn) since Jun’09 (Chart below) as inflows have coincided with Fed "talking-down" the US$ and rising investor fears of recession/Quantitative Failure.

This has maintained price pressure and pushed the 50-day moving-average above the 200-day moving-average, creating the so-called "Golden Cross" bullish trend pattern.

 

While obviously not guaranteed (2012 saw an upward-sloping 50DMA cross a upward-sloping 200DMA without trend gains), the last time a "golden cross" occurred coupled with major fund inflows was Feb 2009, which marked the start of a dramatic trend higher in the precious metal.

 

Charts: BofA, Bloomberg

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Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:11 | 7238661 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Large enough positions to take delivery I hope.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:30 | 7238676 Father Thyme
Father Thyme's picture

Clear out the Comex!

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:38 | 7238683 jaxville
jaxville's picture

  This is just paper chasing more paper.  Just where did the 7 or so tonnes come from that GLD added to their holdings?

  I remember a few years back Rob McEwen of Goldcorp attempted to but a single tonne.  It wasn't all that easy.

 The gold that Venezuela is dumping into the market has long been spoken for.

  You buy gold to protect yourself from the excesses of the financial sector.  Look who administers GLD.  That fund is little more than a diversion to keep folks from actually owning gold. 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:44 | 7238695 new game
new game's picture

if true, why doesn't kyle bass demand delivery and break its' back? huh? am i missing something?

cueing sprott, you got billions, break the comex back bone, can you? just fucking talk...

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:54 | 7238719 Nutsack
Nutsack's picture

You are missing something IF you think you can DEMAND delivery.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:40 | 7239222 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

GSR if near all-time highs too at 81.5:1

insane....silver is so cheap now that in the comparison to 1980 adjusted for inflation and M2 money supply silver is now a little over 1 dollar an ounce in 1980 dollars. 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 12:12 | 7239527 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

The ratio is nowhere near its all-time high.  Furthermore, your incoherent statement confuses "price" with inflation adjusted purchasing power.

The amount of gold needed to buy an ounce of silver has been declining since the USA and continental Europe demonitized silver in the 1870s.  After 140 years, why should that relationship change now?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:40 | 7239226 SoberOne
SoberOne's picture

Goldest crossiest since Lehman.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 11:56 | 7239461 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

How do you say that in German?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:58 | 7238729 jaxville
jaxville's picture

 I understand he took delivery of his Comex position a few years back and made his own vaulting arrangements.

  Did you ever hear the story about the guy who won the court case but lost everything in his life?  I don't think Kyle wants to be that guy.

  The Comex/GLD scams will fall on their own in time.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:01 | 7238736 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Yes, you are missing something. You can start by reading here....

http://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/plugins/servlet/mobile#content/view/6...

The Comex doesn't have to deliver to you the physical metal upon settlement, they can substitute fiat if they wish...

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:07 | 7238751 new game
new game's picture

thank you kindly, interesting. so it really is a fucking scam. they don't have to deliver.

fucking fiat for fiat with a gold label. got to be joking right? wrap that 5k fiat with a gold wrapper. should have known...

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:01 | 7238858 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The rabbit hole goes even deeper...

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:14 | 7238890 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This is the nuclear option, when they use it the game will be over. They can stop insolvency for a brief time but the spot price will forever split from futures once they are forced to do this. They could probably get away with using it once, having the MSM pressitutes shill it as a one-off event, but the second time it happens they will have lost control of the price for good.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:18 | 7238909 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

yes they can settle with fiat BUT the act of actually doing so is a massive signal to the market

it wakes the market up to the fact that the physical supply is waaaaaay lower than the demand 'price' set by comex.  tens of billions of dollars will then come flooding in to buying physical and those who hold it wont sell it except for much higher prices

i dont give  a shit that they can settle for fiat. The game is still over should they ever have to INVOKE that clause

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:41 | 7239229 Save_America1st
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that'll be when they declare Force Majeure aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand it's gone!

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:46 | 7238700 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Gold is not in a bull run untill

 

Silver confirms it!

 

And that ain't happening yet

 

GSR approaching 82/1

 

Smarts should be buying Silver 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:53 | 7238714 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

As per Rick Rule there may be a silver round shortage but there is no silver bar shortage.  Silver production is 25,000 tons/year.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:23 | 7238773 Doug Eberhardt
Doug Eberhardt's picture

There is no silver round shortage (I sell the metals). My suppliers can give you whatever you want. The last dip in price there were some production issues for rounds and some delays on Eagles and Maples because the government Mints were also pressure but as Latitude25 says per Rick Rule, and I write about this too, I could sell you 1000 ounce bars for immediate delivery all day long. At present there are no production issues for rounds and they are available for immediate delivery. 

As far as the metals pricing right now goes, silver is telling you the truth in pricing, acting more like the industrial metal (like platinum, palladium, copper) and feeling the affects of the deflationary credit contraction occurring worldwide (Zerohedge always points to the Baltic Dry Index at record lows as one example of this). Gold is acting like the monetary metal with a little fear thrown in the market but the VIX is about to break a pattern lower and the stock market presently is moving higher. This is going to be putting pressure on gold for the time being. It won't last but follow silver to see how bad this deflationary contraction can get. Or follow the banks in Europe and ask yourself;  Can The 2008 30% Drop In Gold Price Happen Again? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3915686-can-2008-30-percent-drop-gold-pr...

 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:42 | 7238812 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Honest assessment of the current PM markets Doug, I appreciate your perspective from your side of the equation. I will also give you guys a try for my next PM purchase. ( link found on your profile)

I certainly believe we can see a 30% drop in PM prices like 2008, although I do believe the sharp drop in prices will be temporary. When markets are in trouble people do liquidate PM's to "fund" losses in other areas and cover their positions. If the past is any indication of the future the drop in PM's when this happens is not as sharp as in other asset classes, and PM's recover more quickly than other assets as well.

I always come back to this thought....at the end of the day if we do have significant corrections or even crashes in the financial markets, what to I want to be holding in my hand, Stock Certificates, Fiat Currency, Paper Gold, or Physicsl Gold ???? My answer is always the same, PHYZ.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:19 | 7238914 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

As long as the answer is more currency printing out of thin air, more debt, more derivatives, more negative interest rates, and more legislation to confiscate currency either by bail-in or by the elimination of cash, your a fool for not stacking phyzz.  We see that the main suppression game is being played out when it comes to gold and silver being priced in $, but for many others who live outside the US, gold is at, or very near, all time highs, and is performing it´s roll as a wealth preserver. 

https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/brl

https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/cad

https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/zar

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:20 | 7238917 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

listen to Maloney. The drop in 2008 was only in the contract price - the rising premium on spot kept the effective price of physical completely level

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:55 | 7239044 Doug Eberhardt
Doug Eberhardt's picture

Thanks DirkDiggler, agree on acquiring physical. I interviewed John Exter's son Barry Downs who sat in on the meeting with Paul Volcker back in 1980 when Volcker asked Exter what to do. Exter said to loosen up monetary policy. While Exter has passed away, Mr. Downs who is 73 offered some great insight on the deflationary contraction to come. I include it in my next book "Illusions of Wealth" which wil be out in 3 weeks (Got willing). http:illusionsofwealth.com 

My advice is simple; dollar cost average into the physical metals and hope your last purchase is at the low for your allocation. Then go make a difference in this world, vacation, drink like Norm from Cheers. Enjoy life. 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:06 | 7238867 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Thanks Doug. Same thing I am seeing as a buyer, no lack of availability. Question, why are the premiums so high on silver eagles?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:57 | 7239054 Doug Eberhardt
Doug Eberhardt's picture

BeanusCountus, the premiums are high on silver but so is the buy back price. At least today. There is no guarantee on future premiums for the buyback price and I do recommend the rounds or bars as you simply have more money you can invest in silver and have it grow for you. I do give out silver American Eagles as gifts as they are a beautiful coin. 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 11:56 | 7239460 RAT005
RAT005's picture

The premium seems high because the spot price is low.  $2.5 is about as low as ASE premium can go.  Just seems high compared to $15 spot.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:33 | 7238795 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

25,000 tons a year = 25 billion gramms

3.5 gramms per person per year in production

on this planet.A lot of this production is

consumed and this number will only

increase with advances in technology

(electronics)

Mr Rule has  tons of silver stashed.

 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 08:45 | 7238824 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

I purchased ~1450 grams yesterday, now i feel like i'm being a hog   :-)~

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:15 | 7238835 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

I have silver stacked too but if manipulation is done with selling paper metal at a high ratio to physical the only way to break the scam is with a lack of physical?  How can  that  ever happen with silver if there is abundant supply?  Since the bottom last year gold has been outperforming silver.  Expect gold to lead silver for a while out of this funk.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 12:57 | 7239713 PirateOfBaltimore
PirateOfBaltimore's picture

Latitude, you inquired to let you know about BitGold delivery.

 

UPS package came yesterday.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:40 | 7238685 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Check the linings of Chuck Munger's clothes.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:54 | 7238718 jaxville
jaxville's picture

The defaults will not begin on the Comex.  They will start on the smaller fully hedged exchanges where real producers sell and real users buy.

  The Comex has covered their arses a few years ago by identifying all participants as either hedgers or speculators.  What is the difference?

  Specs can ASK for delivery whereas hedgers can DEMAND it. You can bet there will always be enough metal to satisfy hedger drawdowns. 

   Watch the little exchanges where real metal actually trades.  At some point the price will depart from Comex quotes as arbitrage between a real physical trade and a Comex quote will become untenable.

  That is how your default or commercial signal failure will manifest itself. Hopefully you will have some real metal and not just shares in some proxy like GLD when that happens.  If you don't know the difference now you will find out on your ass then.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 12:46 | 7239668 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

You can bet there will always be enough metal to satisfy hedger drawdowns.

 

I will take that bet.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:15 | 7239126 open-range
open-range's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.wallstreet34.com

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:22 | 7239155 CHX
CHX's picture

Fluff Jamie ?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 17:12 | 7241267 Strelnikov
Strelnikov's picture

Whoring?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:15 | 7238663 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Eric King just orgasmed

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:30 | 7238674 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

Shocking, catastrophic, epic, mindblowing interview with legendary, shewd, insider, whistleblower ________. 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:45 | 7238697 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Eric King just orgasmed

 

The guy gets the chicks.....I think it's the voice.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:53 | 7238717 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Voice

Money

 

Vote accordingly

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:21 | 7239152 CHX
CHX's picture

The voice... the voice... Jim jack@ss Willy comes to mind... Gold to 10k in 2015, 2016, 2017,..., 2020,... One of these days, but just not today, yet.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:45 | 7238698 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

Possibly the most important interview KWN has ever conducted....

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:49 | 7238705 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Go suck on Janet's tit.  Maybe you'll learn something.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 09:08 | 7238875 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

...who predicted Columbus would discover America and that men would land on the moon in 1969!

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 10:04 | 7239082 Polonius
Polonius's picture

Stanley Kubrick?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 11:44 | 7239424 Stanley Kubrick
Stanley Kubrick's picture

You rang?

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:17 | 7238664 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

That pattern will need to be bashed down. Gotta keep the peeps from finding a safe haven! 

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:29 | 7238673 JoeySandwiches
JoeySandwiches's picture

The problem for them, as Bill Murphy exposed on CNBC, is that they're losing their grip on gold price suppression.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/cnbc-allows-bill-murphy-...

 

Gold wouldn't be up about 15 percent on the year if the CB's were in full control, in my humble opinion.

Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:20 | 7238666 The Devil
Fri, 02/26/2016 - 07:52 | 7238712 Father Thyme
Father Thyme's picture

Article starts out:   "Gold is still expensive..."  *snort*

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!