Japan Hits Demographic Tipping Point With First Official Population Decline In History

Tyler Durden's picture

As troubling as Japan's deflationary, and now negative interest rate, economic quagmire is, the biggest threat facing Japan has little to do with its balance sheet and everything to do with its demographics, for the simple reason that not only is Japan's population the oldest it has ever been, as well as the oldest on average in the entire world, but is now also officially shrinking.

According to data released yesterday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, in the latest 5 year census, Japan’s population declined last year for the first time in nearly a century.

The Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry said the latest census shows that Japan’s population as of Oct. 1, 2015, was 127,110,047 - a decline of 947,305, or 0.7 percent, since the last census conducted in 2010.  

The number of Japanese dropped to 127.1 million in a national census for 2015, down 0.7 percent compared with five years earlier, and was the first recorded decline since the 5-year census started in 1920. As the Shimbun adds, in the 2015 census, men accounted for 61,829,237 of the population, and women 65,280,810.

The population of Fukushima Prefecture, where many residents are still being forced to live away from home due to damage caused to their hometowns by the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster, saw the biggest decrease, or 115,458, a 5.7 percent decline from the last census. The two other prefectures hit hardest by the disaster — Iwate and Miyagi — also saw population declines.

To be sure, this is not exactly a surprise: Japan's ministry had estimated that the nation’s population had been declining for four straight years since 2011, but the latest results are the first official confirmation via a census that the national population has gone down since the government began conducting them.


What is interesting is that whle the census found a record high number of households in the country at 53,403,226, the average number of people per household was a record low of 2.38.

A large-scale census is conducted every 10 years, and a simplified census is carried out every five years after a large census. The 2015 census was a simplified one.

This being Japan, someone had to state the patently obvious: "A ministry official said Japan’s population decline seems to be largely due to the natural factor of deaths outnumbering births."

Some more details:

Out of 47 prefectures nationwide, populations declined in 39, including Hokkaido and Aomori. Of the three prefectures hit hardest by the disaster, Miyagi’s population dropped by 13,950, or 0.6 percent; and Iwate’s by 50,333, or 3.8 percent. The decline in Miyagi Prefecture was small, probably due to the inflow of people working on reconstruction projects. The population increased in eight prefectures, including Okinawa, Tokyo and Aichi.

Japan's demographic troubles are well known: as we reported last September, the number of Japanese aged 65 or older has risen to a new record of about 33.8 million people, or 26.7 percent of the population. Last year, the Internal Affairs Ministry said about 33.84 million people aged 65 or over were living in Japan as of last Tuesday. That is an increase of 890,000 from the same period last year. Men account for about 14.62 million of the total, and women, 19.21 million.

The number of Japanese aged 80 or older has risen by 380,000 from last year to 10.02 million, topping 10 million for the first time.

As we have documented before, Japan's demographic crisis has broad implications for the nation. Fewer workers and less labor will reduce the potential output of the Japanese economy, which will increase the country’s reliance on imports as retirees continue to spend, inhibiting GDP growth. The rising number of retirees will strain the government’s welfare programs and the country’s pension funds, which have been major buyers of government bonds. Japan already maintains the world’s second-largest debt load in nominal terms and it's growing.

The government sees this problem and has passed a bill giving private-sector workers the right to remain at their jobs until the age of 65, rather than the current 60.


Japan’s demographics will also likely have an impact on consumer behavior. Japanese consumers older than 65 are less likely to shop for alcohol, clothing, books and electronics compared with younger consumers, according to a McKinsey survey from 2011. The average senior shops for books and clothing 38 and 35 times per year, respectively, compared with 73 and 58 times for people between the ages of 18 and 34. The only item seniors shop for more frequently than younger consumers is food, McKinsey found.


How Japan faces its demographic challenges over the next several decades may provide important lessons for countries such as China, which also are fast approaching a demographic cliff. People over 65 account for nearly 10 percent of the population in China — similar to Japan in 1985 — up from 6 percent 20 years ago.

China now faces a similar trajectory, as seen in the chart above. Its working-age population—defined as those between ages 15 and 64—is peaking and is set to decline in the years ahead.

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KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Feb 27, 2016 12:05 PM

Rast of the Samurai

Looney's picture

Those two geriatric toothless cuties are so-o-o hot!

Does anybody have their phone numbers?

Thanks in advance!  ;-)


JRobby's picture

Death spiral to extinction

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Having stumbled, unintentionally of course, upon multiple videos of Japanese engaged in sex, I think I know what may be limiting their ability to reproduce.

Stuck on Zero's picture

 Like it or not the population of earth must stabilize. Japan is the first nation on earth to enter the future.

NoDebt's picture

Left unsaid in this story is the fact that those who are still alive are all 10 years older than in the last census.

Please, no applause, these types of insightful observations are why I earn the big bucks.


0b1knob's picture

Japan needs millions of ignorant, uneducated, Muslim rapist immigrants stat!

Looney's picture

... those who are still alive are all 10 years older than in the last census.

Good catch, ND!  ;-)


COSMOS's picture

......and not a single muslim to be found on its beaches LOL

This is what happens when people give up faced with no more room on the petri dish, and being slaves of the USS empire.

The9thDoctor's picture

125 million people crammed into a island smaller than California is a lot. The Japanese have grandiose plans to build mile high offshore skyscrapers near Tokyo to deal with the overpopulation.

I know righty tighties always whine about population declines, but an unlimited growth model DOES NOT WORK.

We have 7 billion on earth now, and look at the problems with migration and the environment. Imagine having 20 billion people. 30, 40, 50, 100 billion. If you think big cities are bad now, what until the entire earth's surface is nothing but megacities.

I think WWIII is inevitable if we don't take care of overpopulation, which in itself WWIII would remedy overpopulation.

Milton Keynes's picture

well given the decline of Anti-Biotic effectiveness, in another 5 years one good round of airborne

staph and we could lose 80% of global population.

mkkby's picture

In 50 years Japan may be a decent place to live again. 

Hopefully niggers, spics and wogs will learn to use birth control some day.  Those GA guildstones folks had it about right.  500 million or so would be a nice world to wake up in.

Welfare Tycoon's picture

This is not just happening in Japan. 

White births are outnumbering deaths in the United States. This article on the subject was written by RT 3 years ago. Considering that nothing has changed for the better since then, one could assume it has probably gotten worse. 


The only reason that this is not shown for the US is because the minority populations are balancing out the overall birth/death rate by fucking like rabbits with reckless abandon.

rbg81's picture

Exactly.  The so-called "experts" want Japan to let in millions of migrants in the name of economc growth.  But I doubt the Japanese are that stupid.  Because:

1.  They want to keep the Japan Japanese.  

2.  Japan is too fucking crowded as it it.

3.  Letting in illiterate Muslim migrants will not boost economic growth--it will be a huge drag on the Economy.  The declining number of productive Japanese will have to pay to sustain these people in their high tech society.  Meanwhile, the Muslims will outbreed 'em, bringing in relatives and multiple wives.  In 2-3 generations, the remaining Japanese will be hunted down like dogs.


The Japanese will be pressured to take in migrants, but will get a pass if they refuse.  After all, it is only racist for White people to want their own country.

DownWithYogaPants's picture

There is no problem with declining population count as long as you are not being invaded by filthy 3rd world scum.

The USA was a nicer place when there was only 100million people.

mkkby's picture

Exactly.  The only reason a declining population (or deflation, or recession) is bad is because of ponzi finance.

Fiat debt MUST INCREASE or it dies.  Bring back strong currency and there is nothing bad about declining growth.  In fact the world would be better off without 7 billion people fighting over fewer and fewer resources.

1033eruth's picture

Actually there would have been others except the Powers that Be, bribed nation PMs/executives to allow immigrant invasions into their countries to stimulate population growth.  Apparently businesses want to keep the population Ponzi alive.  


Bubba Rum Das's picture

"Death spiral to extinction"

Oooowoh! Fukushima IS working!

You wanta Fukushima too? Fukushima on Hudson, all weddy! You wanta Fukushima.

thunderchief's picture

Gotta love them old timers, like one of Haruki Myazaki's movies.

Spirits in the Material World. ..

abyssinian's picture

Print more money for lesser people! Deflation? 

Wulfkind's picture

James Howard Kunstler, author of "The Long Emergency", has said for 10 years that Japan will be the first country to go back to medieval.

What you will also see is the ever MORE rapid buildout, sale and refinement of robotic technology.  China will copy it and make it cheap and we will be welcoming our robotic overlords in earnest by 2030.  It's already happening....but it will be close to "I, Robot" by 2030.

12357111317's picture

I think Medieval is a poor word, because it is misleading. 

I consider Medieval to be the period in European history in which one particular Group ruled and burned science, math, history, and cultural books and also burned people who challenged anything that Group said.  That cannot be blamed on the Japanese or Aztecs or Persians or any other people.  Also, that Group is still alive and well, as we were reminded just this week, as FBI attacked Apple Computers.

Wulfkind's picture

No....Medieval is the right word.  Because this was the FUEDAL period as well.  We already have Neo-Fuedalism now.  It's just going to be honest to God fuedalism here shortly.

12357111317's picture

I don't like the word Medieval, because Japan isn't burning books.

However, Japan has always been, is now, and presumably always will be Feudal.  There are maybe 4 or 5 families who run everything.

remain calm's picture

Problem: not enough unprotected heterosexual coital intercourse.

Solution: Start fucking each other.

Sages wife's picture

Bank of Japan: "THAT'S OUR FUCKING JOB!"


robertsgt40's picture

If Japan is concerned about population decline, I'm  betting the EU has some bodies they would be more than happy to send over on the next boat.

JRobby's picture

They do not wish to bring children into the shamed empire. It is over.

peddling-fiction's picture

They still have some sense of honor...

bluskyes's picture

It may be, but the BOJ only fucks the japs up the ass.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Most of the developed world is having this problem to some extent, so they think they have to import the barbarian hordes to make up the difference. I'd recommend they read "The Demoraphic Cliff" by Harry Dent, but it likely has too many big words and numbers for our elite to understand......

12357111317's picture

Again, it is a solution, not a problem.  And the "they" to which you refer is Rothschild And Friends.  The things they think are good are actually bad for all life on the planet except for them, and ultimately for them also.

Baa baa's picture

If you don't mind a little mutt blood, I volunteer to help relieve Japan of their problem.

12357111317's picture

What we are seeing in Japan is a solution, not a problem.

MalteseFalcon's picture

What about all those robots with AI?

They'll do the work.

Why get married when, apparently, there are robots that can suck your dick?

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) MalteseFalcon Feb 27, 2016 12:10 PM

That's not surprising when you consider that there are already HFT algos that can fuck you in the ass...

Librarian's picture

Why that's just a currency fuc(k)-u-ation.

12357111317's picture

HFT algos do exactly the same thing Federal Reserve ponzi dollars do, but more quickly.

Federal Reserve ponzi dollars do exactly the same thing HFT algos do, but more slowly.


Sages wife's picture

...that WILL suck your dick. FIFY.

- - - - - -'s picture
- - - - - - (not verified) Feb 27, 2016 12:16 PM




everyone, japanistan e yokoso


BruntFCA's picture

This is no big deal. Why produce children (debt serfs) to create wealth to pay of the international Pozi Fractional Reserve Banking System? Populations have decreased in the past. The result will be less crowding, a healthier enivornment with Robots doing a lot of crap jobs.

The only pissed off people will be those hand rubbing merchants demanding perpetual growth on a finite planet.


"This is no big deal." The jist of your comment is exactly to the heart of the matter, but, it is actually the biggest deal facing humanity. And "deal" is exactly what We The People should be doing. You organize a protest where the non-elites refuse to feed into the Bankster ponzi you correctly identify and you take away Bankster power just.like.that. Instant leverage. What are they going to do about it? Force women to have children? Torture and kill the serfs?

I'm surprised to see you got 6 upvotes.

Women of the world unite! No fear!

The Mars Project

jwoop66's picture

Yeah, not sure why its taken for gospel that population and economies need to constantly rise.....  Maybe its bad for statism, but for humanity and civilizations whats the problem?   Every country still has a bigger population than they did when they were more prosperous, so why is a return to past  population numbers bad?


Not sure why it's taken for gospel and why it's baaaaaaad? Because idiots like the pope still go around saying it's the human right and the poor need to be supported so the rich have to 'solve' the problems, other idiots run around screaming euuuugenics!!! which I've learned is properly named "dysgenics", and the rest of us idiots fight and fight and fight about Roe v. Wade.

Meanwhile be patriotic!!! Pray and pass the ammunition...

RUSH / Snakes & Arrows / The Way The Wind Blows - 2007


Faeriedust's picture

Precisely.  Elites survive and thrive by siphoning off the "surplus" produced by the working classes.  The more workers producing, the more "surplus" for them to squander.  The only thing at risk from a reasonable decrease in population is the profits of do-nothing parasites.

roisaber's picture

Guess they need to import 100 million third worlders, you know, to "fix" things.

A declining population is a good thing. It's obvious the earth really can't support 20 billion people. But while the psychos want to enforce a population reduction with law, or worse, extreme acts of violence - Japan proves that population can decline gradually all on its own. Free birth control and an education to the stupids on just how much it costs to raise a snot-goblin would go a long way at clearing some of the traffic on the 405.