Ukraine Collapse Is Now Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture

Via GEFIRA,

Two years have passed since Yanukovich was deposed and, as it turns out, another ruthless clan of oligarchs has taken power. No wonder then that Ukraine is heading for a new wave of violence and chaos. Oligarchs are fighting each other, the IMF is pulling out of the country, officials issue laws and regulations only to see them repealed within a day or two by others, and raided European companies are leaving the country after being robbed by the so-called pro-Brussels oligarchic elite. 

It was evident from the beginning that the US and NATO-sponsored power transition was doomed to fail. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk made no secret on his personal website about his principal partners, NATO and Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. Victor Pinchuk is a link between the Ukraine corrupt oligarchic establishment and the Western political elite. In 2005, the BBC depicted him as a paragon of Ukraine’s kleptocracy:

“Ukraine’s largest steel mill has been bought by Mittal Steel for $4.8bn (£2.7bn) after an earlier sale was annulled amid corruption allegations.

 

The Kryvorizhstal mill was originally sold to the son-in-law (Mr. Pinchuck) of former President Leonid Kuchma for $800m.

 

It was one of the scandals that sparked the Orange Revolution and propelled President Viktor Yushchenko into power.")

Directly after the power transition, European leaders understood that the situation in the Ukraine was unmanageable, which we know from a confidential telephone conversation between Minister Paet (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia) and Mrs. Ashton (High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) that became public. Both politicians understood that the Maidan protesters had no trust in the politicians who formed the new coalition. Mr Paet said, “there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition." Their conversation makes it clear that both European politicians understood that, contrary to the official statements coming from Brussels, Europe has no solution for Ukraine’s problems and no trust in its new leaders.

Petro Poroshenko, one of the oligarchs, became the fifth president. In line with his predecessors, he had amassed an astonishing personal wealth by mixing politics and business on behalf of the Ukraine population. He started his career under the notorious President Kuchma and served as a minister under deposed President Victor Yanukovich. One can hardly imagine a more troubled new president for a country that has to reform itself and get rid of corruption.

In 2014 Brian Bonner, the Kyivpost chief editor, wrote: “Allowing prosecution of Kuchma (concerning the murder of a journalist) is acid test for whether Poroshenko will put national interests above his own.". Asking Poroshenko to “kill” his close friend and crony, former President Kuchma and the father-in-law of the powerful Pinchuk is a dramatic plea by the chief editor aimed at forcing President Poroshenko to show whose side he takes. Poroshenko’s answer came quickly: he rewarded Kuchma with a top position in the Minsk negation team.

Within months after the power transition, investigative journalist Tetiana Chornovol, who lead an anti-graft body, quit, calling her time in the government “useless” because there was no political will to conduct “a full-scale war" on corruption.

In the two years that followed rumour of ongoing corruption has not ceased. For Poroshenko and his fellow oligarchs, the biggest threat is not Putin and the separatists in the East, but the pro-Ukraine militia that only on paper were merged with the Ukraine army.

The militia regards the Western-backed oligarchs as the second biggest threat to the Ukrainian nation. We believe the oligarchs are the primary cause of the rot in Ukraine’s government.

Meanwhile, the Brussels elite is trying to sell the Ukraine 2014 power grab and the resultant association treaty as a way to help Ukraine to overcome its political corruption.

The Dutch government wrote in its communique to its citizens: “This cooperation gives Ukraine a chance for a better future. The country wants to become a genuine democracy, without corruption and with a wealthy population. The European association treaty is the foundation for the national reforms.”

Maybe this is the intention of many naive European politicians, it is not the intention of the Ukrainian elite who under Poroshenko consolidate their power. The Swiss-based company Swissport, a leading airport service company, and its French investors learned this the hard way.

In 2012 the UK-based logistic website the “theloadstar” wrote:

“Swissport, the Swiss ground handler stands to lose some $8m in assets in the Ukraine while other foreign investors could shun Ukraine, following an attempt to forcibly strip the company of its majority stake in Swissport Ukraine.

 

In a move alleged to be ‘corporate raiding’, an increasingly common phenomenon in the country, 30% shareholder of Swissport Ukraine, Ukraine International Airlines (UIA), has claimed that Swissport International (SPI) violated its minority rights – a “baseless” allegation, according to the handler. During interim court proceedings the judges were changed twice – at the very last minute – before the hearings.”

During the reign of Yanukovich, Kolomoisky (Poroshenko ally) try to strip Swissport from it assets. It did so by forcing the company to sell its multi-million majority stake for 400.000 Euro, using the corrupt Ukraine administration and the justice system. We cannot blame the company that it believed its problem was solved in 2014. The Washington and Brussels elite presented the new Kiev government as a tool in the fight against inherited Ukrainian corruption. During 2014 Swissport seems to have fought a successful battle against injustice. But at the end of 2014, the highest judicial body in Ukraine ruled that the company had to sell its multi-million investment to Kolomoisky for 400.000 dollars. The company said that it never received the 400.000 Euro from Mr. Kolomysky.

Ihor Kolomoiskyi is the oligarch President Poroshenko installed as governor of Dnepropetrovsk. That Kolomoisky enjoyed the full protection of Poroshenko became apparent as he was not prosecuted after he had orchestrated an armed raid on UkrTransNafta Ukraine state-owned oil firm. To spare President Poroshenko the embarrassment, Kolomoyskyi offered his resignation.

Ihor Kolomoiskyi is the founder of the Brussels-based European Jewish Parliament that served to increase his influence in Brussels. A worrisome sign that Ukraine’s political rot is spreading into the European Union.

Swissport raid and forceful eviction from Ukraine was an embarrassment for those who try to uphold the illusion Ukraine was in the process of becoming a genuine democracy free of corruption.

It could hardly be a surprise that a year after Kyivpost publication that Swissport had left Ukraine, Aivaras Abromavi?ius, Minister of Economics in Poroshenko’s cabinet and one of Washington’s principal allies in Kiev resigned.

After Abromavi?ius it was Deputy Prosecutor General that resigns due to unstoppable corruption. 15 February Deputy Prosecutor General Vitaliy Kasko wrote in his resignation letter:

“…This desire is based on the fact that the current leadership of the prosecutor’s office has once and for all turned it into a body where corruption dominates, and corrupt schemes are covered up. Any attempts to change this situation at the prosecutor’s office are immediately and demonstratively persecuted.

 

Lawlessness, not the law, rules here…..”

A day later General Prosecutor Victor Shokin, who analysts say, is an ally of President Poroshenko, has to quit. Viktor Shokin agrees to step down after President Poroshenko asked him to leave office Western leaders and reform-minded Ukrainian officials have long been calling for Shokin’s resignation.

At the same time, Ukraine headed for a standoff between its two most powerful politicians after Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk had defied President Petro Poroshenko’s call for his resignation and defeated a no-confidence motion in parliament.

The current chaos in Kiev makes it for the IMF extremely hard to keep Ukraine funded. Brazil’s IMF Director already in 2014 urged not to bend rules for Ukraine. Ukraine had failed the IMF twice before. There is now a sense of panic in Kiev, and so Ukraine leaders start to issue opposite orders. The Central Bank Governor’s ban on money exchange was repealed immediately by Yatsenyuk.

The situation of the population deteriorates rapidly as Ukraine’s currency devalues fast and bond yields spike. Companies start to understand that direct investment can disappear overnight as raided foreign companies are forced to leave the country. Protesters take over Hotels in Kyiv and return to Maidan to demand the resignation of the Ukraine rulers who came to power with the support of Washington and Brussels. Yatsenyuk now becomes a liability for its partner NATO.

It is a just matter of time before the Ukraine nationalistic militias will take power, resulting in a definite split of the country. Poroshenko can postpone the people final verdict by reviving the war in the east, but in the end, he can not escape the day of reconning.

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Duc888's picture

 

 

Can we chalk this up as another "success" for that fucking pile of steaming shit named Hillary?

Mr.Sono's picture

It's got to be hard and long process. Very unfortunate for the people.

knukles's picture

Everything is just so wonderful!
Why, for the life of me I can't see why people want gold.  I'm gonna load up on EM bonds, HY and stocks at the open.
Where's the line where I can get chipped?

Stainless Steel Rat's picture

Mittal Steel = Goldman Sachs

You can rely on Hillary to start a war to protect their interests.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

I'd rather like to see the head of Yats the Yid on the end of a sharp stick.

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Got to fuck with the capable white people because that is the potential competition.  The Wogs will never get their act together so let's fuck with Russia et al.

chicaboomboom's picture

They will NEVER tell us the whole truth about the conflict with Russia in Ukraine >> https://goo.gl/nKJndT

Manthong's picture

“I'd rather like to see the head of Yats the Yid on the end of a sharp stick.”

Hmm.. if my recollection of history reading serves.. I think there was some precedent for that outside of Kiev.

 

BarkingCat's picture

the Ukrainians had a hobby that consisted of crowds holding pikes and people getting being assisted with stage diving into that crowd..

monk27's picture

Ukraine ? What's that ? Sounds like some sort of a country, but it looks like a perfect shithole...

Manthong's picture

It has some nice mines and some of the best dirt on the earth if they don’t pollute it too much with artillery shells or Monsanto GMO’s (about the same difference).

Actually it was a pretty productive place until the US/EU and their maniac Nazi rabble F’d it up.

…at least the Rooskies got their nice Black Seaboard back out of the deal.

If you read up on the history, it was theirs since about the time of the American Revolution.

Volkodav's picture

topsoil can be to 10 meter (40 feet)

Ag is my expertise...before I wondered how sudden well funded Monsanto arrived

...heavy handed same as other mysteries...search found usual connections

Volkodav's picture

No! look is great... is beautiful lands

ugliness is from outside...

Ukraine has never been a Sovereign nation

 

Volkodav's picture

Only that is not whole truth..begins with lie...

with nothing to support such claim 

any short study reveals Khazar and Scythians extreme differences.

even compare Wiki begins telling they Indo-European group, and continues

then look Wiki Khazar

except for a little confusion cos broad land was called Scythia by some

and a few writers mistake from that..

Scythians were from Sem, not Japeth

All Scythian burials are fair euro-type features

while Genesis 10 2-5  shows family ties of Askenaz Khazar

 

 

 

Element's picture

There's a lot of it about too, from "Profit Confidential":
 
 
 

Economic Collapse: Here’s Why the Russian Ruble Is Doomed in 2016

By Alessandro Bruno, BA, MA

Published: January 27, 2016

The Russian Ruble Touches New Lows

The collapse in oil prices has crushed the Russian ruble, pushing the country to the verge of economic collapse.

The RUBUSD exchange rate is such that a dollar costs 78 rubles. The fact that in May 2015—the period of highest value for the ruble in 2015—a dollar cost just over 48 rubles shows just how much the Russian currency has fallen in less than a year. In August 2008, a dollar cost just 23 rubles.

The Russian currency has lost up to five percent against the dollar; hints from the ECB that it would intensify its quantitative easing (QE) policy and its effect in fueling oil prices generated some support for the Russian ruble, but it was too little too late, with special emphasis on the tardiness.

The Russian central bank has summoned all major banks of the country for an “emergency meeting” on the currency. Elvira Nabiullina, head of the central bank, has canceled her visit to Davos and several Russian media reports have identified a correlation between the two episodes. (Source: “Russian ruble hits record low against dollar, central bank convenes meeting,” Channel News Asia, January 22, 2016.)

Low Oil Prices Have Crushed the Ruble

The Kremlin has tried to minimize the damage. The Russian ruble is not collapsing, as President Vladimir Putin’s representative Dmitri Peskov argued; market volatility was more to blame: “I wouldn’t use the word ‘collapse.’ The rate is really changing, the rate is volatile, but it’s far from a collapse.” (Source: “The Russian Ruble has hit a new low against the dollar as oil prices continue to slide,” USNews, January 21, 2016.)

Nabiullina said that the ruble is heading towards its fundamental levels, which do not require intervention, unless risks to financial stability ensue. (Source: “Russian ruble hits record low against dollar, central bank convenes meeting,” Channel News Asia, January 22, 2016.)

However, her statements have only helped accelerate sales of the ruble, prompting an emergency meeting of the central bank.

The problem is that regardless of interventions, the main cause of the ruble’s decline is the oil price and no amount of interventions can reverse the downtrend. The population is starting to panic and it may force the bank to take drastic action.

The ever more precarious state of the Russian banking system is not helping either. On January 21, the Russian central bank revoked Vneshprombank’s license in what promises to be one of the biggest banking collapses in Russian history. (Source: “Russian central bank revokes licence of Vneshprombank,” Reuters, January 21, 2016.)

The decision follows the identification of 187 billion rubles (US$2.3 billion) missing from its budget. The central bank had already intervened to place Vneshprombank under special administration on December 18 over concerns about its financial position and infringement of the minimum capital requirements. Vneshprombank is the 34th Russian bank by assets and 33rd by deposits. Its clients include members of the political elite and the Russian financial sphere, as well as the Orthodox Church.
Sanctions and Banking Crisis Hitting Economy

In 2015, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 3.7%, according to initial estimates. (Source: “Russia’s GDP falls 3.7% as sanctions and low oil price take effect,” The Guardian, January 25, 2016.)

This year, Sberbank warns that it could slip by further if the price of oil stays at current levels—its yearly high has been closer to $32.00 per barrel and has gone down as far as $27.00 per barrel. Not only that, but inflation continues to run at two figures because imported goods are becoming increasingly expensive following the devaluation of the Russian ruble.

The result is that daily life has become more difficult for the average Russian. This is a disaster for Russia, which calculated its 2016 budget based on $50.00-per-barrel oil price. It would have to revise its public accounts with heavy cuts.

Unless oil prices rise as part of a steady recovery, Moscow’s stock market will suffer and the ruble with it, approaching the lowest levels in its history. The RTS Index in Moscow, denominated in dollars, fell 3.5% early in the session on January 26, accumulating a loss of almost nine percent compared to the beginning of the year. Oil accounts for more than half of Russia’s state revenue, along with gas. There is no respite for the ruble in the near future.

Having recorded 3.7% lower GDP over the past year, Russia will not remember 2015 kindly, as it looks to the immediate future with anxiety. By all accounts, 2016 could be more merciless, bringing with it a second consecutive period of recession.

 
Russia Has Few Options to Support Ruble

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns, “Russia, which continues to adjust to low oil prices and Western sanctions, is expected to remain in recession in 2016. Other economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States are caught in the slipstream of Russia’s recession and geopolitical tensions. In some cases, affected by domestic structural weaknesses and low oil prices. They are projected to expand only modestly in 2016 but gather speed in 2017.” (Source: “IMF cuts Russia’s 2016 GDP growth forecast to contraction of 1%,” Econotimes, January 26, 2016.)

[Yeah ... thus we know for sure they're headed for economic Depression!]

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has already announced that within a week, he would introduce a new anti-crisis plan that would take the trend in oil prices into account. In 2015, unemployment in Russia rose by 7.4% to 5.8% of the working population. For those still lucky enough to be included in the ranks of the employed, real wages have contracted nine percent (in the first 11 months of last year) accompanied by record inflation estimated at 12.9% in 2015.

This leaves the central bank few tools to reverse the ruble’s downtrend. Russians have taken to criticizing Vladimir Putin now, whom they accuse of not doing enough during his 15 years in power to diversify the economy and make it less dependent on oil, gas, and minerals.

http://www.profitconfidential.com/economy/economic-collapse-heres-why-th...

---

 

You're up Vlad, this is your puppy, you can only bullshit them for so long, just ask Gorby.

JustPaper's picture

Russia's rouble is crumbling because Russia refused to prop it up - why waste the reserves? It has been redirecting the economy to side with China for a long time now, and whatever is happening there now is but a faux-storm when compared to the 90s. 

I know the infantile glee bullshit is very common in the west, but I think Europe and the US should have a look over their own economic perspectives before approving the sanctimonious drivel.

Element's picture

So what you're saying is Russia's pretty much screwed from here then? Putin demolished its relations with the EU, blew its own energy market foot off with them as well, pissed off all of NATO's militaries, and has now got every weapon in Europe pointed at it and this is Putin's version of strategic  wonder chess, is it?

Probably should consider some facts before Moscow's info trolls and fake 'journalists' start pointing their crooked lying fingers at others, which Moscow attacked and invaded, huh?

Have a nice day.

giovanni_f's picture

How naive of swissport to think they could skip the compulsory speech invitations to Hitlery so as to purchase some protection by the state department that ultimately runs the show in Ukraine.

Al Tinfoil's picture

Mittal Steel is now Arcelor Mittal, the biggest single producer of steel worldwide. Arcelor Mittal is suffering from the World glut of steel production, and its shares have dropped 95%.  The latest figures that I could find showed large workforce reduction in Arcelor Mittal Ukraine, and a major drop in output from the Ukraine Arcelo Mittal complex occurred starting in 2015.  

Arcelor Mittal Ukraine is stated to be Ukraine's biggest exporter.  The business was formerly the second largest exporter from Ukraine, but became the biggest in 2014 when the largest, situated in  the rebel Donbass region, was taken over by the separatists. Tsk!

 

geno-econ's picture

Local currency collapse has resulted in expandad steel exports from Ukraine, even with worldwide glut.

With all this corruption why would Joe Biden allow his son, Hunter, to become a Director of largest gas producer?  I think we all know the answer!

Manthong's picture

Well, the good news is that Ukraine will have Monsanto GMO’s, Round-Up and Cargill processing up the wazoo.

..al least as healthy as Kiev artillery.

BarkingCat's picture

one problem with grabbing asserts through corruption is they can be list just as easily when the political winds change.

You can bet that the Swiss did not aquire their share in that company fairy.

This shit can go on until one strongman grabs hold of power.

adanata's picture

In a nutshell ...

Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Ukraine.... bear.... checkmate.

 

Hans-Zandvliet's picture

You're forgetting a few: Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Egypt. Not to mention the 1970s and '80s in Latin America: Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, Grenada, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Cuba, Haiti. And over in Asia: China, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mianmar (Burma), Indonesia. Surely I still forgot many!

Let's just hope the Evil Empire will soon crumble and crash: that would be the best news that ever happened to the rest of the world. A bearish checkmate (comming from both Wall Street and Moscow) may indeed turn into the necesary incentive.

giovanni_f's picture

"Can we chalk this up as another "success" for that fucking pile of steaming shit named Hillary?"

YES WE CAN.

WTFRLY's picture

Joo World Order loading ... ... ... ... 74% (Do joo want to unpack Ukraine Fuckery 2016?) Yes

No

Freddie's picture

That evil piece of shit Robert Kagan aka Nudelman's ZioCon husband came out for Hillary and was bashing Trump.  He claims to be a Republican.

I would love it if Trump won and someone put Nudelman and Kagan on trial for murder and genocide...and Trump let them be extradited to NovoRussia..

fleur de lis's picture

Victoria Neudelmann is descended from Russia way back. She speaks fluent Russian. That's how she can meddle so well into Russo-Ukrainian issues.

HRH of Aquitaine's picture

Nuland is a fucking traitorous bitch.

fleur de lis's picture

Russia Insider thinks that there are similarities between Nuland and Stalin. Maybe they're long lost cousins? It would go a long way to explaining her homicidal hatred.

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/25/2726

fleur de lis's picture

Nuland is on a mission to get even with the meanie Ruskies for kicking out her pestilent family 100 years ago. Maybe we should send her back to Russia in exchange for a few pounds of caviar or a fur hat. Or maybe they can have her for free. They would fix her wagon real fast.

Manthong's picture

Trotsky (born Levi Bronstein ) betrayed Russia with funding from western banks.. so did Nuland born from the Jewish family Nudelman.

 

Manthong's picture

Since most people do not spend thousands of hours trying to get to the bottom of things, most people do not know this,,

..the Czar, Nick II, pretty much stepped aside in Russia way back when and a democratic government was being formed.. the western bankers wanted nothing of a free country with the most resources on the planet and so they funded Trotsky and Lenin….. well, you know what happened…  well maybe you don’t, but it was worse than anything Hitler did, And to boot,  we got villains to keep the MIC in biz for a long time..

Volkodav's picture

"Give Russia twenty years without interferences from within or without

and you will not know her"

    -Pytor Stolypin- reformer  (assassinated)

opport.knocks's picture

They were Republicans, but changed teams when the Obamination became Pres. 
Nudelman got a promotion at State and Kagan got to contribute NWO catch phrases to Obama's speeches.

They are still ZioCons, and quickly able to change stripes. 

iggenFlot's picture

You're quick to blame Jews for your problems when you should be blaming your own stupidity and substandard IQ.

BarkingCat's picture

you can try to argue a the history but you will never convince it to change.

Consuelo's picture

Well, good thing it ain't fat too...

Pooper Popper's picture

I blame BORIS....

Stop drinking all the vodka,and save some Russian babes for the Ukrainian guys!!

 

HowdyDoody's picture

She had help - a lot of help. Crookies Nuland and Samantha Powers, along with Pyatt and the CIA goons.

ThroxxOfVron's picture

<--- Hunter Biden is going broke doing business with Oligarchs in Ukraine.

<--- Hunter Biden is becoming quite wealthy doing business with Oligarchs in Ukraine.

ThroxxOfVron's picture

<--- The progeny of a powerful politician promoted by association IS basically an Oligarch.

<--- The progeny of a powerful politician promoted by association is NOT an Oligarch.

giovanni_f's picture

Neither - Cunter Biden, still sobbing for the loss incurred to him for the shutdown of that extramarital fuck site, will make a few more terminal mistakes by this helping to ruin the carreer of his father a.o. and eventually be eliminated as a member too weak and too error-prone as to be acceptable alive for the Biden clan.  

HRH of Aquitaine's picture

I hope he is conducting his "business" from afar. Actually showing up in Ukraine could be deadly.

geno-econ's picture

Had a dear friend who started a Hotel venture in Moscow. His Russian partners asked him to sell out his stake for peanuts---he resisted and was gunned down in the Metro.  Hunter, get out now, or Pappy will not have any sons

FTFD's picture

I remember Paul and his fight for the hotel with the Moscow Mayor and the Chechens back in the 90's. Got gunned down in the underpass between the Radison and the Kievskaya metro station.

Hugh G. Rection's picture

Don't forget Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, who has somehow been appointed to the Board of Director's of Ukraines largest natural gas company.

css1971's picture

That's pure merit.

Best person for the job. Obviously.

spiral galaxy's picture

What proof do you have that it was Hillary? Do YOU have access to her top secret email communications? Oh, wait....!! /s

junction's picture

At least in Ukraine, kleptocrats who become rich by using their government connections are not role models.  In the USA, they call kelptocrats activist investors.