Here Is The Math: Trump "Almost Certain" To Win Republican Nomination Before Convention

Tyler Durden's picture

First it was all a joke. A media sideshow. A publicity stunt that no one really understood the purpose of.

Donald Trump was actually going to run for President. His campaign slogan: “Make America Great Again.” It was laughable.

Soon after the billionaire announced his candidacy, his nascent bid for the White House took on a more serious tone, but not because anyone was taking him more seriously. Rather, because his comments about Mexican immigrants were so inflammatory that it was difficult to dismiss them with derisive humor.

From that point on, it was all downhill for the GOP establishment. Trump racked up popular support, defying every law of conventional politics along the way.

Each and every time analysts and pundits doubted him, he prevailed and that unlikely momentum carried right over into the caucuses and primaries and now, after Super Tuesday 3, Trump has effectively knocked out every Republican challenger except Ted Cruz (let’s face it, Kasich isn’t going to get the nod).

Still, all commentators and political “experts” want to talk about is a contested Republican convention in Cleveland. While that’s certainly an interesting outcome to consider as it forces us to look back at political history to understand the precedent and what that precedent might mean come July, it’s as if no one has learned anything from the past nine months.

That is, the assumption should probably be that Trump is going to lock up the nomination before the convention, not that they’ll be some kind of historic bid to rob him in four months. The media - both liberal and conservative - act as though it’s virtually impossible for him to make it to 1,237 delegates. We’re talking about a guy here who no one thought would even register in terms of poll numbers and now he's the overwhelming favorite.

All of this is not to say that we - or anyone else for that matter - should necessarily believe that a Trump nomination is a good thing for the GOP let alone for America, but it is to say that all of the talk about a contested convention may be wishful thinking.

As this simple graphic from The NY Times shows, if Trump simply maintains his current level of support, he’s “almost certain” to secure the nomination:

(click here for interactive version)

“After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is too far behind, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility,” The Times writes.

“Crunching the latest numbers, Donald Trump needs to win 54% of the remaining delegates to obtain a majority [and] that's doable, but not necessarily a slam dunk,NBC adds, before noting that “Trump won 60% of the available delegates from the March 15 contests.”

Trump currently leads Cruz by 261 delegates

  • Trump 683 (47% of all delegates won)
  • Cruz 422 (29%)
  • Rubio 172 (12%)
  • Kasich 143 (10%)

Trump needs to win 54% of the remaining delegates to hit the 1237 magic number


Cruz needs to win 80% of the remaining delegates to hit the 1237 magic number


Kasich needs to win 107% of the remaining delegates to hit the 1237 magic number

As Trump himself pointed out in his victory speech in Florida, the fewer candidates, the better his chances to win. Or, as NBC concludes, Trump won 60% of the delegates on March 15, “and that was with four candidates in the GOP field; now [that] there are three you could argue that the map only gets better for Trump.

Yes, you certainly could.

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Falconsixone's picture

Que the nice jew car salesman.

VinceFostersGhost's picture



Clearly the "initiates" need to sacrifice more babies.

Keyser's picture

The only reason that Katschit is still in the race is to take delegates from Trump and hoping to get a seat at the big table at the GOP convention...  After his association at Lehman, one would think people would catch on to this fraud... 

J S Bach's picture

"Trump "Almost Certain" To Win Republican Nomination Before Convention"

He's also "almost certain" to be assassinated unless he buys himself an "Ironman" suit which covers every inch of his body.  Even one of those bullet-proof pope-mobiles would be a good precaution.  Although there may be no greater egotist than Donald Trump, I don't think even HE realizes the kind of murderous psychopaths he's taken on in this campaign.  They will stop at nothing to eliminate him to gain and hold power.

This could also all be moot if Trump is part of a monumental ruse of some sort to placate the rebellious serfs until the next phase of the New World Order is put in place.  Who knows.

New Hampshire is Best Hampshire's picture

"laughable"? Are you some european, durden?

Only a european would have such an unapologeticly nihilistic mindset


Nutsack's picture

So the greedy lying socialist jew FED can't buy an election with the seven trillion dollars they've printed for themselves under Obama alone? Really?


p.s., and what comments about the disease ridden, illiterate, criminal, rapist, child molester, murderer, invaders were incorrect?


Don't blame TRUMP because some cowardly pussies hate the truth.

Manthong's picture

Well, that 7% part should be doable for John  Lehman Bros” Kasich.


Nutsack's picture
Nutsack (not verified) Manthong Mar 18, 2016 8:42 AM

The socialist jew run media said "VOTE FOR McCAIN" did that work out?

The socialist jew media said "VOTE FOR ROMNEY" did that work out???

Now the socialist jew media says "DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP" the fuck do you think that will work out?

Manthong's picture

The SJM is losing the handle day-by day.


“Even one of those bullet-proof pope-mobiles would be a good precaution”

..maybe not unless he lines it top to bottom with depleted uranium and reactive armor.

And that’s going to be pretty hard to do on the 757.

Maybe an escape pod like they had in “Escape From New York” would be in order.


Tarzan's picture

Listen to what they say, that they fear he'll lose the General election to Hilary, and believe the opposite.  The establishment is in the tank for Hilary.

They fear a Trump nomination because they're afraid he'll slay hildabeast!

poeg's picture

What they fear is Trump already has the dirt on Hillary in hard copy and is merely waiting to dump the lot 4 weeks away from picking POTUS. The overspill lands on Mitch and the boys, without a doubt.

Syrin's picture

So the new tactic are the polls emerging showing that Trump can't win against Hillarnazi depsite the following facts:


-Hillarnazi's turnouts are dismal, and most of them who show up are paid to be there

-Trump turnout is at a record level like we've never seen

-25% of the racist blacks are willing to vote for Trump

-over 50% of hispanics are willing to vote for Trump

-those who voted for Sanders said they would vote for Trump over Hillarnazi

-20% of generic democrat voters said they would vote for Trump


So more media propaganda to keep us from voting for Trump, or is it true he can't win against the unconvicted felon?

Syrin's picture

Incredible.   What a f'ing traitor.

Tarzan's picture

There is but one reason they fear Trump, besides that he may win,

It's not his positions, policies, harsh rhetoric,

He's not a secret society wonk, not properly compromised, unassailable

Save_America1st's picture

Kasich gets traffic ticket.  Then gets caught on video lying about it and calling the police officer an idiot a few times. = Scumbag


californiagirl's picture

Haven't you all noticed what the MSM is intentionally not reporting?  For almost every single primary/caucus so far, the total number of people coming out to vote Republican has "trumped" the total number that are voting Democrat.  That is all due to Trump.  However, it will NOT carry over to the general election if Trump is not on the ticket.  Those voters will just stay home.  What's the point of voting when there is nothing you want to vote for on the ballot.

jeff montanye's picture

theosebes: your conspiracy is run by singer and ricketts, republican jewish coalition and orthodox jew respectively.  said to be "hawkish on foreign policy".  it is not hard to find trump critiques of the iraq war on youtube.

i think this accounts for some of it.  broadly defined, to include 9-11, maybe most.

apparently there are zionists and then there are zionists.

i guess one can support israel and not the wolfowitz plan.

SmackDaddy's picture

Comparing Hillary to Nazis is so disrespectul to the Nazis.

It's a tell that either 1) you dont comprehend history or 2) are manipulating the language.


wren's picture

1) Trump secretly works with Putin to estiblash relations and contact Snowden.

2) Trump gets Snowden to turn over all NSA data on Hillary and her cronies.

3) Trump releases all secret NSA data on Hillary through 3rd parties keeping source hidden one month before the election.

4) Trump pardons Snowden.

5) I get rich selling Hillary pez dispensers that have that annoying laugh.


Hey, I'm allowed to dream!

Manthong's picture


Were any opiates or hallucinogens involved in that one?

Silver Sativa's picture

Hey, dude, at least it is creative.

jeff montanye's picture

how's this one: trump is one of the few who can say he had no "hard proof" that 9-11 was mossad and cia run, since he wasn't in government (and larry silverstein was his "friend").

but when he gets in, he finds out and breaks the news.

i don't think even an mrap and an iron man suit would be enough to keep the mossad hitmen and their cia helpers off him.   he's going to need a food taster probably last month.

scalia thought he was one of the protected.

therover's picture

Remember...that 'escape pod' was for shit as they got the Prez anyway. Dressed him up and the Duke made him his bitch.

nanncy's picture

Classic. Your the Duke! Your A Number 1! rat-tat-rat-tat-rat-tat-tat!!!!!

FrankDrakman's picture

AFAICR, the "SJM" were all out for Obama both times. How do you get "Vote McCain or Romney" out of that?!

jeff montanye's picture

only that they were okay with either man, both ultra extreme zionists and totally cool with the seven countries in five years plan.

only that.

and they are not cool with trump.

at all.

McCormick No. 9's picture

God sets up kings and takes them down. Trump's remarkable rise shows something woking behind the scenes.

froze25's picture

It's called a population that is very pissed off.

Renfield's picture

Doing God's work, innit.

Ward no. 6's picture

I believe in Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the orderly harmony of what exists, not in a God who concerns himself with the fates and actions of human beings. -- einstein

not that einstein is correct on everything... but really don't bring god into this...


Freddie's picture

Jeb Bush was also Lehman.  Florida state pension holders lost over $1 billion when Lehman went under.

Ted Canadian Cruz is also a Bush/NWO and Goldman stooge.

jeff montanye's picture

if there is one choice, there is only one choice.

there may well be the standard zero choice however.

Took Red Pill's picture

The GOP really doesn't want Trump, talking about putting up a new candidate,Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Voters don't choose the candidate, the party does;

There will be riots if this happens.

deadelephant's picture

There will be riots.


Doesn't matter who wins.  There will be riots.  If you think the primary protests are something, just wait for the general election.

froze25's picture

That is why Trump started attacking Hillary. Basically he is saying to the RNC I am pressing forward as if I am the Nominee making it even harder for them to steal it. Both sides are fighting for control of the perception of "who is the inevitable nominee" Trump is winning on that front. What can the other candidates or RNC do? They can't exactly tell him to stop attacking Hillary.

jus_lite_reading's picture

I'm voting for Trump if for no other reason that to stick my middle finger at the whole fucking establishment!

Fuck the GOP, the liberals, the Communists, the media and all the assholes who think this country is on the right path!


Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"There will be riots."~

There will be manufactured riots.


Nutsack's picture

FUCK THAT, I'M RIOTING! All you wetbax, faggots, and kniggers best get out of the fucking way!

KnightTakesKing's picture

+100. I had absolutely no intention of voting this year but I voted for Trump in the primary just to stick my middle finger at the establishment. If Trump (literally) survives until the general election, I'll do the same.

RiverRoad's picture

At the top of both parties it's all about Power, Money & CONTROL.  They don't want anybody going off the reservation.  A real political corporatocracy.

zeronetwork's picture

Certainly "Jew Fed" could buy election and the country and the world with the kind of money they have printed but are ___________ of their nature. Cannot let the money go out once they have their hands on it even it is just fake and Ctrl-P.

iClaudius's picture

"Only a european would have such an unapologeticly nihilistic mindset"
Thank you.

Byte Me's picture

"laughable"? Are you some european, durden?

Only a european would have such an unapologeticly nihilistic mindset

People forget that Europe extends all the way to the Ural mountains....

ISEEIT's picture

Who knows.

Come on, what are you a conspiracy theorist?

You don't actually believe that 'world leaders' and the essentially unlimited 'wealth' afforded those who would cooperate, either wittingly or not, with inbred elitist banksters to control the world is like a 'real' thing right?

I mean that would be fucking weird.


ISEEIT's picture

Which brings up a pet theory of mine.

Is central planning akin to inbreeding?

Would not central planning be considered a crime against nature?

A macro-aggression if you will, in opposition to idealized evolutionary development?

Kinda like an abortion of the individual?

ISEEIT's picture

It's so fucking obvious that these gangs conspire to remain in control of the 'game'.

The G20 was really like a bunch of sick fucks huddling up to make deals that would enable the game to stay alive until the next big hit.

These 'world leaders' obviously conspired in an entirely un 'democratic' way to by unethical and devious means manipulate world 'markets' in such a manner as to be favorable to their own sick and already lethal rein of terror.

Globalization is a done deal. We are living in it. We have been subjected to it.

Disruption is now the only hope.

Trump may well be false flag. Could be a trap.

But hillary IS a trap.

So why not do what they think we won't?

froze25's picture

If Trump is part of an elaborate NWO plan, my hats off to the NWO. Trump 2016! I will take my chances.