Could There Be A Coup In Turkey?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Michael Rubin, orignially published at American Enterprise Institute

The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.

Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdogan is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.

Erdogan long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdogan’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdogan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?

In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.

Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.

I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.

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SpanishGoop's picture

A coup or a war inside Turkey will not happen until all Turks have visum-free travel into Europe.

They will use the mad man "uncle Erdo" to get it and after that we will see.

 

 

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) SpanishGoop Mar 27, 2016 10:30 AM

"Could There Be A Coup In Turkey?"

 

Not today... The CIA is honoring Passover at the moment.

y3maxx's picture
...If War w/ China, Russia  or Turkey begins soon, dont be surprised to see Obama awarded a third term, would satisfy the Neo cons.    War...Edwin Starr...1970...  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQHUAJTZqF0
Dapper Dan's picture

the war has begun

 

Explosion in Lahore, Pakistan, March 2016

Mar 27, 2016, 03:24 PM GMT 16m
30 or more killed and 200 wounded in suicide bomb attack in Lahore, Pakistan, say rescue workers - Pakistan Today Read more on pakistantoday.com.pk
Manthong's picture

Golem and his crew need to be turned into red mist.

back to basics's picture

"His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport"

1. It wasn't forged, the Saudis provided him with one

and

2. The Italian authorities were aware of this but let him go anyways

The deep state runs deep EVERYWHERE

weburke's picture

he is still only partway through with his assigned script

indygo55's picture

A few days ago Eric Prince appeared in the Turkish capital and immediately met with high goverment officials. Why? Who side is HE on? Where ever this guys goes, people die.

 

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/03/25/blackwater-head-trips-to-turkey/

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"...some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation..."~

Yeah, I've heard that becoming a tyrannical dictator does that to ya'.

HowdyDoody's picture

Which side is he on? The side that pays most. He must have taken a hit in the wallet after his men fled from Yemen.

The Alarmist's picture

... he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black.

Paranoia, or reasonable precaution?  He has made more than a few enemies in the region, and he has proven less than useless for his Saudi masters.

magnetosphere's picture

u know this exact scenario played out in the summer of 1940?

BobEore's picture

"Could There Be A Coup In Turkey?"

"In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders"

A rather pointless analysis - insofar as it is apparently based upon an appraisal of external factors - instead of the dynamic in Turkey itself. Very little attention is paid to the latter; and now that most opposition journalists are either behind bars or self-censoring, details are all but absent.

Were the military to move in the direction predicated here, it would be based on a determination that sufficient political will exists within the governing AKP itself, to turn the country back from the approaching precipice. There was, a month ago, a movement in that direction - when former President and AKP co-founder Gul met with other party heavyweights in public. Since that moment, we've had the takedown of the countries largest daily, and the indictment of a number of business leaders from Gul's hometown, on specious grounds. A warning of the kind that the regime loves to orchestate.

The Army will not move without a groundspring of support from among the political caste to whom it can immediately hand over power - there is absolutely zero popular support for any kind of military dictatorship - of any duration. Too many military coups, of too recent memory for that option to have any traction. Formation of a popular unity government across party lines is the only scenario for under which such a move would be contemplated. Looking less than likely to happen now.

Hope, it seems will come from quite a different direction, than the guys with the guns. The forthcoming spring offensive which the PKK will launch in the southeast is going to recreate the pain and suffering of families losing their children in large numbers - conscript soldiers thrown into the cauldron of urban warfare - the guerrillas now equipped with sophisticated weaponry of the kind that the Russkies o so gladly have provided - with which to return the favor of NOV 24's shootdown, and the killing of the parachuting pilot in the air. A war crime that Moscow intends to see avenged a thousand times over... in their own quietly effective manner!

It's going to be the ladies who step into the breach this time - if anyone can stop this madness in time!  Just as Kurdish women have become an intregral part of the forces which are whupping jihadi ass in Syria[40% of the YPG is female!]watch for the Turkish women to step into the streets with the potsnpans kind of revolt which will rock the be-suited jihadis in Ankara back on their heels! A revolution from the last direction that the wouldbe-Caliph ever expected! 

emersonreturn's picture

israel is still making money brokering with bilge...erdagoon is safe until israel can broker fully from the kurds.

AustriAnnie's picture

Michael Rubin:  Neoconservative warmongerer extraordinaire.  Writing from A.E.I..  Any surprise he is licking his chops at the thought of another dictator to oust and another nation to "build"?

 

Pay attention to WHO is doing the writing and WHICH INSTITUTION is paying them to spin the narrative.  This is classic MSM "journalism" here.

try_it's picture
try_it (not verified) SpanishGoop Mar 27, 2016 3:33 PM

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jusman's picture

Oh, I hope so!

 

XuscitizenSweden's picture

Chop this erDOGan türkïe's head off.

ASAP!

To be celebrated in the future as "International Thanksgiving Day".......gooble-gooble.

gatorengineer's picture

This story should be the Hedge headline of the day.

 

http://nyp.st/1MKfJt8

 

Sums it up

Normalcy Bias's picture

It's another step toward their intended societal chaos.

rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) Normalcy Bias Mar 27, 2016 11:25 AM

bottom up, top down, inside out...Obamao has only a little time left to foment his Islamo-Communist insurrection now!?

Frogs are in the pot...

847328_3527's picture

Let'n da peeple express demselves patys off. Other then seriou scrimes of homicide, rape and robbery, crime looks under control in DeeBlazio's Big Apple:

 

Homicide, Rape, Robbery Rose ... but Officials Tout Low Other Crime

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nyc-officials-tout-new-low-in-crime-but-homi...

 

It's laughable how the liberal far left media spins these things.

Normalcy Bias's picture

You need to work on your sensitivity and understanding - Homicide, Rape, and Robbery are all part of their culture!

HowdyDoody's picture

We are taking US military here, right?

Normalcy Bias's picture

Why do you single out the US Military?

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture
the.ghost.of.22wmr (not verified) gatorengineer Mar 27, 2016 10:59 AM

OMG and WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The nation's top law enforcement officer is openly threatening to defund state and local courts and law enforcement who fail to "ease up" on prosecuting street-level crime (meaning crime predominantly committed by non-whites)?

This will open the floodgates for black on white crime and actual (hot) class warfare!

TeaClipper's picture

The madness really has gone deep in the USA.

Now that whitey is a legitimate target i wonder what the black/brown equivalent of the KKK is going to call itself

 

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture
the.ghost.of.22wmr (not verified) TeaClipper Mar 27, 2016 10:56 AM

#blacklivesmatter

CheapBastard's picture

Another out-of-control Obama appointee. At least she isn't handing assault rifles to drug gangs. But the down side ... she isn't prosecuting high level criminals like Holder, Clinton, Corzine, and dozens of others.

 

In her defense, at least she is cracking down on those violent climate change deniers.

rahtidmon's picture

#blackLIESmatter

Fixed it for ya!

Kokulakai's picture

@...headline of the day.

Looks like the FSA intends to bypass the middleman.

Kina's picture

Yes, its CIA Plan B

 

Erdogan Stalin

dumb_funded's picture

hmmm..."Coup" is a recurring theme

 

koan's picture

Paranoid? Is there any such condition in this day and age?

Consider what allegedly happened to Bin Laden, I think "paranoia" is a survival instinct.

RiverRoad's picture

When the Turkish military gets the nod from the CIA it will be curtains for Erdogan.  His plane is loaded with gold and sitting on a guarded runway.

4 wheel drift's picture

who is going to suck the muslim's dick then ??

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture
the.ghost.of.22wmr (not verified) Mar 27, 2016 10:45 AM

Ukraine is proof positive that the D.C. puppets are happy to deal with (and arm) illegitimate leaders that come to power as a result of coups.

Expect even more arms and money to flow to Turkey if this happens.

TeaClipper's picture

Russia always get their man.

researchfix's picture

"Russia always get their man."

Yep, even in Mexiko.

Moe Hamhead's picture

Should there be a coup in Turkey?

But that's a different question.

Freddie's picture

The USA, NATO, Saudis, Qatar, Israel and the rest were on board all the way with Erdogan.

He is losing badly in Syria now so they will want to make him go away.

Russia needs to keep up the sanctions on Turkey and keep helping Syria and the Kurds.

HowdyDoody's picture

Things aren't going well for ISIS, so Turkey is the designated fall-guy. When TSHTF the US etc will all claim it was Erdogan's idea and they were mislead as to his true intentions. I guess, for completeness, at a suitable time, a 'lone gunman' will do Erdogan in as dead men tell no tales.

 

johnnycanuck's picture

Indeed something may be afoot.  Read this article from Al Monitor about the Iranian-Turkish gold trader and see how it fits in.

 

"Zarrab allegedly acted on behalf of the Iranian government and Iranian businesses, and there is speculation that he must have made a deal with US authorities.

Zarrab was first detained in Turkey but eventually was released with the government’s help. Many believe that Zarrab had to have known he would be arrested the minute he landed in the United States, and that he wouldn’t have made the trip without a deal worked out in advance. His potential disclosures to the US federal prosecutor will surely implicate Turkish officials and, as such, may well be an instrument of pressure on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-iran-usa-arrest...

 

Then there's the recent revelations on what the King of Jordan is said to have claimed during his recent visit to Washington.  Could Erdogan be headed for a Nixon moment? Are TPTB gearing up to make him an offer he can't refuse?

Amish Hacker's picture

Coup or no coup is a decision that will be made in Washington, not in Ankara.

Monetas's picture
Monetas (not verified) Mar 27, 2016 11:09 AM

I would love to see .... the watermelon pulp .... of Erdogan's brains .... after a Kurdish tank ran over his head ?

rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) Mar 27, 2016 11:20 AM

I think he may have a Columbian Necktie on order? Madman that he is, just sayin'?

KuriousKat's picture

Somebody wants him in there or he would not be getting 3-6 billion to stem the flow of immigrants, Nato look the other way on downing a Russian jet, and share in revenue from Isis oil.. it would hve been cheaper to to hire a hitman.

Hark! a voice in the wilderness..

Gadaffi : Miss me yet?

sheikurbootie's picture

I grew up in the region.  Turkey ran efficiently in the 60-80's with the military always keeping the country on course.  Whenever the elected leader went astray, the military stepped in.  It's a weird way to run a country, but it's a weird region of the planet.  There's mega poor, a small middle class (shop owners) and ultra rich.  The ultra rich are typically NOT likely to be passive and benevolent.  They're typically very aggressive and self serving with a kind hearted caring facade.

Turkey/Greece/Lebanon are one step above a 3rd world shit hole.  I doubt I'll ever return for a visit.  Never say never, but I really don't want to see it again.

OverTheHedge's picture

I can't vouch for Turkey or Lebanon, but right now Greece is perfectly civilized. Not trying to be argumentative, just letting you know the MSM might possibly have a tendency to exaggerate, mislead, and occasionally outright lie.

I'm STILL waiting to see my first MENA refugee/immigrant here in my little bit of Greece, but I agree that if you go rummaging in the right area, you will probably find quite a few. It's just that it is a very localised phenomenon. If you go to the right bit of the US you will also be able to find the same refugees, but it is hardly over-run. All this may change, but for now, life goes on despite government, which is how it should be.

Regarding the article; long on speculation, very short on fact.