The Rebellion Will Not Go Away

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Gaius Publius via DownWithTyranny.com,

The Sanders- and Trump-led (for now) political rebellion is not going to go away. There are only two questions going forward:

  • Will it remain a political rebellion, one that expresses itself through the electoral process, or will it abandon the electoral process as useless after 2016? 
  • Will it be led by humanitarian populism from the left, or authoritarian populism from the right?

Why is this rebellion permanent, at least until conditions improve? Because life in the U.S. is getting worse in a way that can be felt by a critical mass of people, by enough people to disrupt the Establishment machine with their anger. And because that worsening is seen to be permanent.

Bottom line, people are reaching the breaking point, and we're watching that play out in the 2016 electoral race.

Yes, It Is a Rebellion

There's no other way to see the Sanders and Trump surges except as a popular rebellion, a rebellion of the people against their "leaders." If one of them, Sanders or Trump, is on the ballot in November running against an Establishment alternative, Sanders or Trump, the anti-Establishment candidate, will win. That candidate will cannibalize votes from the Establishment side.

That is, Sanders will attract a non-zero percentage of Trump-supporting voters if Cruz or Paul Ryan runs against him, and he will win. By the same token, Trump will attract a non-zero percentage Sanders-supporting voters (or they will stand down) if Clinton runs against him, and she will lose to him.

(In fact, we have a good early indication of what percentage of Sanders supporters Clinton will lose20% of Sanders primary voters say they will sit out the general election if Clinton is the candidate, and 9% say they will vote for Trump over Clinton. By this measure, Clinton loses 30% of the votes that went to Sanders in the primary election.)

If they run against each other, Sanders and Trump, Sanders will win. You don't have to take my word for it (or the word of any number of other writers). You can click here and see what almost every head-to-head poll says. As I look at it today, the average of the last six head-to-head polls is Sanders by almost 18% over Trump. In electoral terms, that's a wipeout. For comparison, Obama beat McCain by 6% and Romney by 4%.

Note that Sanders is still surging, winning some states with 80% of the vote (across all states he's won, he averages 67% of the vote), while Trump seems to have hit a ceiling below 50%, even in victory. The "socialist" tag is not only not sticking, it's seen positively by his supporters. And finally, just imagine a Trump-Sanders debate. Sanders' style is teflon to Trumps', and again, I'm not alone in noticing this.

Whichever anti-Establishment candidate runs, he wins. If both anti-Establishment candidates face off, Sanders wins. The message seems pretty clear. Dear Establishment Democrats, you can lose to Sanders or lose to Trump. Those are your choices, and I'm more than happy to wait until November 9 to find out what you chose and how it turned out. Not pleased to wait, if you choose wrongly, but willing to wait, just so we're both aware of what happened.

The Rebellion Is Not Going Away

I won't be happy with you though, Establishment Democrats, if you choose badly. And I won't be alone. Because even if you succeed with Clinton, Establishment Democrats, or succeed in giving us Trump in preference to giving us Sanders, the rebellion is not going away.

If you look at the Trump side, it's easy to see why. Are wages rising with profits? No, and Trump supporters have had enough. (They don't quite know who to blame, but they're done with things as they are.) Will they tolerate another bank bailout, the one that's inevitable the way the banks are continuing to operate? They haven't begun to tolerate the last one. They already know they were screwed by NAFTA. What will their reaction be to the next trade deal, or the next, or the next? (Yes, it's not just TPP; there are three queued up and ready to be unleashed.)

Trump supporters, the core of them, are dying of drugs and despair, and they're not going to go quietly into that dark night. The Trump phenomenon is proof of that.

On the Sanders side, the rebellion is even clearer. Sanders has energized a great many voters across the Democratic-independent spectrum with his call for a "political revolution." But it's among the young, the future of America, that the message is especially resonant. For the first time in a long time, the current generation of youth in America sees itself as sinking below the achievements of their parents.

The Guardian:

US millennials feel more working class than any other generation

 

Social survey data reveals downshift in class identity among 18-35s, with only a third believing they are middle class

 

Millennials in the US see themselves as less middle class and more working class than any other generation since records began three decades ago, the Guardian and Ipsos Mori have found.

 

Analysing social survey data spanning 34 years reveals that only about a third of adults aged 18-35 think they are part of the US middle class. Meanwhile 56.5% of this age group describe themselves as working class.

 

The number of millennials – who are also known as Generation Y and number about 80 million in the US – describing themselves as middle class has fallen in almost every survey conducted every other year, dropping from 45.6% in 2002 to a record low of 34.8% in 2014. In that year, 8% of millennials considered themselves to be lower class and less than 1% considered themselves to be upper class.

Of course, that leads to this:

The large downshift in class identity among young adults may have helped explain the surprisingly strong performance in Democratic primaries of the insurgent presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who has promised to scrap college tuition fees and raise minimum wages.

Will those voters, so many of them self-described "independents," return to the Democratic Party? Only if the Party offers them a choice they actually want. If the Party does not, there will be hell to pay on the Democratic side as well. America is making them poorer — Establishment Democratic policies are making them poorer — and they're done with it. The Sanders phenomenon is proof of that.

Will the Very Very Rich Stand Down?

The squeeze is on, and unless the rich who run the game for their benefit alone decide to stand down and let the rest of us catch our breath and a break, there will be no letting up on the reaction. What we're watching is just the beginning. Unless the rich and their Establishment enablers stand down, this won't be the end but a start, and just a start.

I'll identify the three branches to this crossroad in another piece. It's not that hard to suss out those three paths, so long as you're willing to look a few years ahead, into the "middle distance" as it were. The ways this could play out are limited and kind of staring right at us.

But let's just say for now, America faces its future in a way that hasn't happened since the Great Depression, another period in which the Constitution was rewritten in an orderly way (via the political process). Which means that for almost every living American, this is the most consequential electoral year of your life.

I know. I'm not happy about that either.

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TeamDepends's picture

You folks in the big cities have about three months to GTFO.

Casanova's picture

Rebellion? What rebellion? We are CURSED with a curse >> http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3z

wee-weed up's picture

 

 

Let's hope all those elites in power who are to blame for their selfish needs causing  our great country going completely down the toilet will have a chance to finally meet their favorite lamppost with a little rope in a nice gentle breeze.

Lurk Skywatcher's picture

they will fake an alien invasion or some such and put us all under lock and key.  we will either willingly give them complete control over us or they will take it forcefully. they are playing for all the chips, while the vast majority of sheeple don't even realize they are in the game. i hope to hold my own and dont expect anything more of anyone else at this stage, let alone an organized rebellion that will deal to those most at fault for our collective hellhole.

greenskeeper carl's picture

I kind of agree with this guy, in a round about sort of way. If an economic collapse brought on by socialism and central planning in inevitable, might as well have a socialist/central planner in charge. No better way to show people why that shit doesn't work. It would also be useful to point to the left and say "see, I fucking told you so. this shit doesn't work"

Muh Raf's picture

Paraphrasing Crocodile Dundee "That's not a rebel, this is a rebel..." Robert Morrow interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNf6q-THvTE

Urban Redneck's picture

That's one county that Diebold & Smartmatic can cross off their list of ballot boxes to stuff. Only several thousand to more to go before the elite are stripped of that tool.

The beauty of decentralized authority at work.

animalogic's picture

Hey Carl....What "socialism" ??

What "central planning" ? Shit, there's a PLAN ?? Who would've guessed....beyond the obvious plan of the 1% to gorge on the flesh of all the rest...

And as for your "the left", I'd sooner believe in fairy's living at the bottom of the garden... (Of course, you probably think all the PC wankers are a genuine "left" ....yer, lol).

eatthebanksters's picture

Obozo pretends there is no problem as he recites fraudulent info from the Fed...meanwhile the people on Main Street see through the bullshit.  The Obozo Administration is a propaganda sham...he just wants the Fed to hold it together for him until the elections.

Memedada's picture

RE: Carl.

A seemingly growing number of ZH’ers have apparently (probably unconsciously) been recruited as controlled opposition. The whole “Trump” (Drumpf) phenomenon is a clear-cut case of this. It’s pretty obvious that he poses no real threat to the establishment - give me an example of a policy that he would implement that could harm the interest of the ruling class (the 0,01 %)?

The fact that he gets billions worth of free airtime should be enough to the most indoctrinated mind to start question their belief in him (as nothing else than a corporate pawn/part of the corporate clique).

But the most tell-tell-sign of controlled opposition is the pure ignorance when it comes to political ideologies. The giant intellectual void dominating all US “political” (theatrical) debates – including here on ZH. It’s EASY TO guess who’s from US and who’s not – if the commentator is totally clueless about ideologies = US-“citizen”/slave.

But I’ll keep on doing this:

1.       Socialism = an economic system dominated by the social, public and/or state ownership over the means of production.

2.       Capitalism = an economic system dominated by the private ownership over the means of production.

In US these – commonly (in the rest of the world) accepted definitions of the two economic systems – is mutated by decades of corporate propaganda too something like this:

1.       Socialism = “statism”, taxes, state support of corporations, totalitarianism, “progressives” (again a totally empty term in a US context), FSA   = everything to do with “the government”

2.       Capitalism = freedom, meritocracy, free markets etc. = everything to do with “the individual”

Stupid/ignorant. The fact that you can easily have “free market socialism” and “state capitalism” is enough to discredit these “definitions” (normally there’s no need for “definitions” in and indoctrinated mind).    

Everything in US is more or less privately owned – including the “national” bank/FED, the state itself (by all relevant measures) and all productive assets = US is pure capitalism. Fascism yes = the state as a tool for the corporate masters. But still capitalism (fascism have always been the wet-dream of the ruling capitalist class).

But – and I’m genuinely curious – what “socialist” policies have you seen been implemented in US (the last decade? Century?). And who in the US establishment do you see as “left-wing” (of course even in a fascist system there’s a “left-wing” – it’s all relative. The Democrat party is – in a European context – extreme right-wing but in a US context it’s left-wing in relation to the Republican party. But the US Republican party is also about as far right as you can get – what’s after fascism?).

And no, I’m personally neither communist nor socialist, but an anarchist (the real sort who fights all forms of illegitimate authority – being public and/or private).

 

The economic collapse was a controlled demolition. It’s not (just) a recession it’s a robbery. The 0,01 % in control (again making your statement about “socialism” ridiculous) have been doing well under the collapse – it’s not a collapse for them.  

 

 

Urban Redneck's picture

One one example? You set the bar too low... Ending the insurance monopolies that mirror the state borders. The competition would reduce profits for the oligarchs and costs for the consumers.

Relentless's picture

No. Mandating people pay private companies for insurance (health or otherwise) is a fascist law. You are using state power to enrich private corporations. A socialist would give "free" health care funded out of general taxation and probably fix the pay and hours for medical professionals while they were at it (think Cuba or France).

The US is a fascist state where political power is wielded for the benefit of private corporations. It cloaks itself in the trappings of democracy/republicanism but it ceased to be either of those decades ago.

 

 

Urban Redneck's picture

And mandating that private citizens expend their own valuable labor and material resources to provide medical services to those who cannot pay for the goods and services is TOTALITARIAN power used to achieve SOCIALIST ends.

Semantic games can be fun...

But as long the state is being "fascist", there is nothing that says they must profit by the insurance the populace is mandated to purchase. Nigger Care had a guaranteed profit provision for the monopolistic insurance companies, but the compulsory purchase model that it was based on (Switzerland) actually forbids insurance companies from selling the compulsory component of medical insurance policies at a profit.

old naughty's picture

just kept up with the 'news' and be skeptical and alert...

else we'll become useful idiots like the others (non zh'ers) and those two!

sgorem's picture

hang their fucking asses high, so the queezy sheeple can see them swinging from afar when the sun goes down..................sgorem

Frankie Carbone's picture

Many of them would weep openly. 

doctor10's picture

as paradoxical as its seems, Fed.gov's only real option is actually The Donald. He's the only one with potential to stay the rapid slide in Fed.gov's legitimacy and mandate to unite the states.

any other president will get to preside over internal disintegration

the harder they grasp, the faster the brass ring slides through their greedy fingers

Reagan bought that crowd another 20 years; Trump can get them another 10-15 if they shut up and elect him

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Trump has shown nothing of the substance he would need philosophically/charasmatically to buy this USA another 20 years.  Based on what I've seen, he's a relatively harmless blowhard narcissist.  And relative to 1980, this USA is FAR, FAR, FAR more fractured across several critical dimensions.  Further, this polarization has been happening since the late 70s, and I cant perceive the catalyst for an ideologic harmonization.  We are past the event horizon, in a strange environment where the rule of law is largely suspended.  The fundamental of free market economics ('risk-free rate of return') has also been fixed by .gov in an effort to support, nay increase price inflation.  The Constitution as it relates to individual liberties has been eviscerated.  There is no turning back.  A lot of suffering lies ahead.  We are walking into the valley of the shadow of death.  When you are lost, a compass can help you find the way.  But when you throw away the compass (rule of law, Consitutional liberties, focus on excellence of thoughts), THERE CAN BE NO RETURN.

conscious being's picture

Trump sucks. Anybody saying otherwise is as dillusional as all those Obummer voters everyone, now, loves to goof on. Who has room for another serving of hope and change? Lucy pulls the football away again, but Charlie Brown never learns.

Doctor10 hits the mark.

conscious being's picture

Does the ZinoTrump troll bot have anything worthwhile to say?

PTR's picture

You folks in the big cities have about three months to GTFO.

 

Paging Snake...Snake.  Please pick up the red courtesy automatics.

conscious being's picture

Damn, can't upvote you cause of those damn italics. Snake could kick Chucky-boy Norris into the next dimension.

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture

The mood at gun stores is getting dark and crazy. More people are talking about survival, 9/11, the Fed, the establishment and the filthy puppets in CONgress than the guns.

That's my barometer.

Freddie's picture

Lots of morons in Texas still love Canadian Ted Cruz and his owners the Bush klan.   Morons.

He is a f**king cubano Canadian dual shitizen.  His records are sealed like Obolas and he pay $500K bribes to silence whores like Flores chica now working for Carly.

 

Casanova's picture

Rebellion my foot.

Al Gophilia's picture

Rebellion! ? Meh. They had their chance to get back their liberties with a good man at the helm last go around. They lasted and ignored him and his son disowned him. It would have been a peaceful transition but now they have limited choices, none of which are anywhere close to delivering a return to the Constitution. Ron Paul was our opportunity lost. Now we get socialists, an oligarchal puppet, a sex deviant liar and a dictatorial crusader wrapped in the flag.

Welcome to the devolution.

PTR's picture

"The only winning move is not to play."  -Josua

Al Gophilia's picture

The game will come to you, unfortunate but inevitable.

TonyRUs's picture

Right. You may decide not to play, but that does not mean they will. (and Josua turned into a pacifist....hated that ending.)

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Change is upon us, whether we like it or not. Kids born into entitlement programs And PC drivel has fostered a generation of lushes. Case and point Indiana http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/03/indiana-gov-mike-pence-says-religiou...

nmewn's picture

Clearly, the anti-statist is the man who has made an entire career & government pension off of our backs being a statist!

Feel-The-Bern ;-)

TeamDepends's picture

Hell yeah!!!! He's going to stick it to the big banks by NATIONALIZING them. That'll learn 'em!

Frankie Carbone's picture

Actually that is a GREAT idea. Before knejerking think about it. 

Money issuance and control of money should serve the public good and not private interests. 

Obama LaForge's picture

Skynet 2016. Turns out he was the good guy in those movies.

Hyjinx's picture

Politicians serve themselves, not the "public good."  I'll go with REAL free market allocation of money any day.

Frankie Carbone's picture

And within 50 years we'd wind up right where we are again. 

 

Proctologist's picture

He is unique. Most fascists don't masquerade as communists.

"Feel the Bern" sponsored by "Preparation H"

Sir John Bagot Glubb's picture

Exactly.  He'll be just like Barry, just not as smooth and harder to take seriously, when, for example, he'll want Congress to forgive $1 Trillion in student debt.  Nothing Anti-Establishment about that.  Just Barry and the rest of the Democrat Party on steroids.

Hail Spode's picture

Good. But rebellion alone is not enough. Anger at a corrupt system is not enough. We must know what the goals are, what we are trying to change and why. What should this system be replaced with and why?

 

What it should be replaced with: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00B0GACAQ

Why : http://www.amazon.com/Localism-Defended-between-Anarchy-Central/dp/0996239006/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=

Captain Chlamydia's picture

Thanks Spode, will order and read the books. I have never believed in AUTHORITY. 

PoasterToaster's picture

So that's the take from the disaffected Democrat voter, eh?  It's nice they are being forced to confront reality in the same way the Republicans are, but to think that Trump voters are dying from drugs and despair while not acknowledging the same state of affairs in their own side is silly.

Still not quite ready to lower themselves to the same level as the rest of us.  Humanitarian Left indeed.

Skiprrrdog's picture

Ted Cruise is the Zodiac Killer...

Clowns on Acid's picture

What about the illegals...? 40MM of them? What about the muslims? Oh yeh...they will all become productive members of society...

Ms. Erable's picture

They can most definitely help to increase productivity - the ones that don't self-deport can help fertilize the non-GMO crops.

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture

A wise man on ZH once said Europe would be *in flames* before America even farted.

Well, Europe is *in flames* and it's not yet summer.