Trump Nomination Odds Tumble As 'Brokered Convention' Bets Soar

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: The latest poll from left-leaning Publi Policy Polling found that Cruz leads with 38 percent support, with Trump right behind at 37 percent — within the margin of error.

Amid campaign-manager-assault-gate and the abortion fiasco, Donald Trump appears to be facing his own Waterloo. Polls show Cruz up by 10 points in Wisconsin and that has sent the odds of a brokered convention soaring to almost 70% and pushed Trump's odds of gaining the nomination down to 50%.



Interestingly, Paul Ryan's odds are surging...


Of course some context shows that Trump is merely back to mid-February levels of support (from the bettors) but still this trend is not the friend of the disenfranchised in America.

It appears once again The Establishment is winning... even as The Hill reports, the GOP is at a breaking point...

"This race is kind of at its boiling point," said Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist and contributor to The Hill. "As ugly as it is now, the two losing candidates at the convention are going to feel even worse."


Instead of helping to unify the GOP behind a candidate, as the primary process typically does, the race has instead created deep wounds between the candidates that are unlikely to heal.


The antagonism has been heightened by a particularly vicious stretch of campaigning involving allegations of adultery and pictures of the candidates’ wives.


"I believe that we're beyond the point in the campaign where we feel we can unify. There’s been too much bad blood that's been created," said GOP strategist David Payne, who said he would like to see Cruz win the nomination before the convention.

Finally, it seems the American public is starting to get fed up with the constant mainstream media coverage of Trump's very utterance or mean glance... Most GOP voters (63%), incl. 33% of Trump supporters, say too much press coverage of Trump.

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Boris Alatovkrap's picture

<-- Brokered Convention

<-- Broken Convention

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Crap! Now Boris is accumulate many down vote!

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Down vote for Boris is Up vote for Hillary.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Trump has really done it this time. The government has no right to punish women who choose to exercise their god-given right to have an abortion. It's her body, and therefore her choice. Feminists are rightfully outraged at Trump's misogynistic comments, and the polls are reflecting this. It was a fun while it lasted, but it looks like Trump's campaign is now officially done.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, either way the oligarchs (like Hillary and Trump) will win! Everyone else loses.

You are correct.

Looney's picture

Hillary will do anything and everything to get elected!

She would eat Chelsea (with lots of garlic and Tabasco) on live TV.

I betcha, she would even wear the infamous Blue Dress with Bill’s and Monica’s freshly re-deposited bodily fluids, if it would get her elected.  ;-)


J S Bach's picture

It should say,

"Riot and Revolution Odds Skyrocket As Brokered Convention Bets Soar."

knukles's picture

We went through this a long time ago, at the very outset of a glorious wonderful human experiment which has since been subsumed by a ruling class. 
They've broken the social contract.   There's a phrase attached to it: 
                                          No Taxation Without Representation

thesonandheir's picture

GOP would rather have Assad up against Hillary than the Donald.

Stainless Steel Rat's picture
Stainless Steel Rat (not verified) thesonandheir Mar 31, 2016 11:45 AM

Ted Cruz's campain is run by this guy:

clooney_art's picture

What happened to the bookie who paid out on Trump's nomination ?

Bollixed's picture

A Trump Presidencey would still do as much good as changing Captains on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Bollixed Mar 31, 2016 12:29 PM

I smell GARTMAN!

El Vaquero's picture

The founders never intended that the masses would have a direct role in choosing the president.  It was clear back then.  A constitutional amendment changed that somewhat, but not totally.  Where the current lot of politicians fucked up was convincing the masses that their votes in this count.  People would be much more accepting of a move like a brokered convention if they had never believed that their votes count than they will now. 


In the end, neither party can proceed without at least some of the populace playing along with their mechanizations.  Enjoy as they self destruct!

Fredo Corleone's picture

If Cruz ever became the GOP nominee, his "ceiling" in the general election will be the State of Texas and perhaps three or four Southeastern states. No more. Unappealing to the general electorate; ergo, unelectable.

And what becomes of Trump's coalition voting bloc, in the event of a non-Trump, "Establishment" nominee ? They stay home. Result: the GOP loses either way.

Took Red Pill's picture

What happened to Anonymous coming out with info on Cruz the next day if he didn't drop out?

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Million Dollar Boners:  If it were really "her body and her choice"  then drugs would not be illegal.

Don't get me wrong.  Every time a liberal or Niggerian have an abortion the angels sing as does I.

Fredo Corleone:  Don't stay home. Vote!  Write in Trump.  We need to usurper Ryan or whomever to go down in spectacular flames so recruiting a candidate for a stolen nomination is near impossible next time they try.  A significant vote for Trump will let the pretender know exactly the reason behind their red faced embarrassing loss.  If the usurper is Ryan we should insist he resigns from congress to get the bonus points of being rid of him after the election


If you want to keep your gun rights you better keep congress more or less constituted as is.  ( hold your knose ) 

Isy's picture
Trump Got It Right Again. This Is the Undeniable Proof... However the mainstream media isn't saying a word about it!
Gaius Frakkin&#039; Baltar's picture

@El Vaquero

People would be a lot more accepting of a brokered convention if the nation and world was going to hell.

Stainless Steel Rat's picture
Stainless Steel Rat (not verified) Gaius Frakkin' Baltar Mar 31, 2016 7:13 PM

So  Ted Cruz' campaign manager is Chad Sweet: Spook turned investment banker.

Here is his resume:

Bankster Deluxe/COFOUNDER at the Chertoff Group (yes, that's right DHS' Michael Chertoff)

Chief of Staff, Department of Homeland Security (2007 – 2009)

Vice President, Goldman Sachs (1996 – 2006)

Investment Banker, Morgan Stanley (1994 – 1996)

Directorate of Operations, Central Intelligence Agency (1990, 1991 – 1993)


Do you ever wonder about the Allen Dulles/Prescott Bush like career pattern of  Spook/Bankster/Spook/Bankster/Spook/etc. ?  Well, vote Ted Cruz if you want to continue the tradition. I'm really sure that there won't be any false flags on their watch.

So what does this Chertoff group do?  It provides "intelligence" for banksters.  Ok, let's hand over the keys to THOSE folks.  I'm really sure they are trustworthy. /sarc

OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Abortion is the third rail in politics, talk about it and you die. Very depressing Donald didn't know that. Just about anything else you can get out in the open and say what you want...but not that. I fear the worst, which is total scumbag Cruz versus total scumbag Hilary.

new game's picture

sayin 2 years ago and still today. first black prez, first woman prez. 8 moar years. i hate to have to keep this bag over my head. plez someone say i'm vip van winkle and it is only a bad dream. it is depressing and hopeless. trump you dumb ego driven fucken narcissist. the hope fades(again and again adnassium)...

caconhma's picture

Lately Trump makes too many blunders.

It appears that Trump ego overwhelmed him lately. His temporary successes made him feel too smart and invincible. He has lost his head.

Just agreeing to have an interview with MSNBC where he is an evil was outright stupid.

Trump's election strategy was very simple:  to appeal to "the US quiet majority" whose wellbeing and concerns were totally ignored by the mass media and US political establishment. However, as soon as Trump started to deviate from his few primary issues (an opposition to the political establishment policies regarding to unlimited immigration from underdeveloped countries, US involvement into endless wars of aggression all around world, a challenge of the corrupt mass media, and few more).

Trump is an opportunist without  his own believes and convictions. He is an empty suit.

In my opinion, Trump election campaign is about to collapse at any moment leaving American people highly betrayed and disillusioned.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

If they kill Trump, or keep him from getting the nomination, maybe some one can have a word with Vladimir Putin about becoming President?

Of course he would have to give up at least nominal control of Russia's Presidency...

monk27's picture

No Trump nomination = no vote for GOP, ever again !!! It is that simple...

ThorAss's picture

Was Putin born in Hawaii or Wisconsin, I can't remember.

monk27's picture

Google it ! That's how Americans learn stuff...

rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) knukles Mar 31, 2016 11:36 AM

No freedom without revolution!

I think it has gotten to that point, sadly!

Listen, I may post a lot of bullshit about violence, I don't promote it, I merely point out the inevitable truth!!!

I have lived through the destruction of a capitalistic society under the guise of Socialized Democracy - and it was NOT pretty, left an indellible mark on me, one which I lost everything, and will not soon forget!

More Ammo's picture

I don't promote violence but an engagement with reality is at hand.



Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

HockeyFool's picture

"I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."

Calmyourself's picture

Which country did you survive?  Seriously, a few anecdotes would be welcomed!

Escrava Isaura's picture



new rahtidmon: I have lived through the destruction of a capitalistic society under the guise of Socialized Democracy.


Could you please clarify:

1) Which nation is that?

2) And, which type of capitalist society did it have?


rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) Escrava Isaura Mar 31, 2016 11:27 PM

I am not sure I want to answer that, too much info about me, it is the truth, does it really matter where?

adanata's picture



"No taxation without representation"

Right you are knuks... now if we could just get a hundred million Sheeple or more to agree, we could end this shit show right now. What're the odds...  ?

FMR Bankster's picture

Looks like Trump will come into the convention with 1100-1150 delegates. Wonder if he will turn to lying Ted Cruz, Little Marco Rubio, or just pull together all the other friends he has made with his campaign. The Donald is supposed to be the undisputed master of the deal, I'm looking forward to seeing him try to pull this one off. Although I agree with the frustration with the Republican party, Trump is a clown act. Arrow me down but he can't hold a single position for 24 hours without changing it.

A Nanny Moose's picture

the only relevant point is that he causes the establishments in both parties to freak the fuck out. This is all I need to know.

aVileRat's picture

Yeah, Barry Goldwater caused the party to "freak the fuck out", within 4 years they were back to status quo. In the wake of Barry, DNC membership doubled from isle hopping RNC's.


Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

With this much lawlessness/tyranny, we're likely to see the US literally split than reprise the post-Goldwater era.  That was back when the nation was still largely unified.  

joeyman9's picture

I did.  You can tell who a man is by his enemies.  Trump is NOT THEM!!!!

adanata's picture



...and Rand Paul is making a big announcement tomorrow.... let's connect the dots. Ron has been an honorable and consistent man/politician. Then something happened. He was campaigning when he went to a breakfast 'meeting' with Bernanke. Since Ron had been humiliating Ben in congress for years, it seems appropriate Ben was given this moment. Immediately after the meeting Ron dropped out of the presidential race. We will never know what was said to Ron but they flipped him. Rand is no Ron; in this case the apple fell veeeeery far from the tree. Another dot; Porter Stansberry, who I am sure is known to most of us, said Obummer would be the greatest president we will ever have. Financial 'guidance' aside, Ron is now shilling for Porter. Note, what Ron is saying as he shills is accurate, although he is leaving out a lot of information and he is pointing those who are listening right at Porter's financial services.

Meanwhile we know that however much local politicians may be trying to desperately protect their private income streams/power/fiefdoms, the Barons of Basel do not fear Trump... or any individual. They'll do business with him; make him look very good to the disaffected Sheeple while keeping those imperative "trade agreements" intact. I assume the Barons are already talking to the Don. Rand is the banker's man; if he throws his 'weight' behind Trump/Trump chooses him as a running mate... the fix is in. That's my crystal ball reading for today....


MonkeyKnutz's picture


I had to log in just to give you a greenie on that one, JSB.  Although, I believe it will fizzle out like everything else on the "right/conservative/moral" side of the spectrum.  They will not be rallied until it causes direct pain unto themselves.

JusticeTBuford's picture

Time to increase the bullet budget again?



JRobby's picture

Thanks Looney, you made up for LoP's jacked off remark quickly

rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) LawsofPhysics Mar 31, 2016 11:12 AM

If Trump were an oligarch, then why is the oligarchy against him? Nah, laws, you are wrong about this one!

Now, hitlery fits it like a condom!

pods's picture

I will take a stab at that.

Trump has brought in MANY who had given up on our system.  

The system depends on support from the masses for legitimacy.  So Trump, in that regard, has done wonders for stability of the system.

Better to let the people think they are free.  They don't have the forces to physically subdue everyone.

So whether Trump wins or not (let's be honest, the Deep State cares not who wins) the system garners back some of those who had forsaken it.


rahtidmon's picture
rahtidmon (not verified) pods Mar 31, 2016 11:33 AM

A fine stab indeed, and you are partially right!

I don't think it will matter much either, as this country is on a collision course with history anyway - EVERYBOOTY is pissed off now!

Let the games begin...April 2nd!

Calmyourself's picture

Brokered =  The party is over and Billary the rapists wife wins.    Opinion of former caucus chair, this party and our system as a whole is way past its sell by date.  It must be torn down all its participants banned from public participation and a new system of limited suffrage be enforced among other reforms.

This is going to hurt, be very messy and frankly a crapshoot as to what we end up with..

Liquid Courage's picture

"This is going to hurt, be very messy and frankly a crapshoot as to what we end up with.."

What is: what Bill Clinton says when he sits on the toilet, Alex?