Payrolls Rise 215K In March, Beat Expectations As Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rise

Tyler Durden's picture

And so the confusion remains: why did Yellen go uber dove three days ahead of a day in which the BLS reported that in March not only were 215K jobs created, more than the consensus 205K, if below last month's 245K, but in which average hourly earnings rebounded a solid 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, and well above last month's -0.1% decline.





However, the fly in the the ointment was that the unemployment rate picked up modestly from 4.9% to an above expectations 5.0%. This was due to a modest increase in the participation rate to 63% from 62.9%, as 396K new civilians entered the labor force, rising to 159,286K, while 246K new jobs were added (per the Household survey) while people not in the labor force declined by 206K to 93,482K.


Elsewhere manufacturing payrolls dropped 29K, far below the 2K increase expected, and below last month's -18K. Additionally, the energy recession is finally trickling down with oil and gas extraction payrolls falling 19,200 from a year earlier (chart courtesy of @not_jim_cramer).

And the last notable point: average hourly hours worked remained at flat at 2 year lows of 34.6, which bodes poorfly for both productivity growth and for GDP.

On net, the report was better than expected, which means it is "good news" if only for the economy, but will it be good news for the market, which will now start discounting another Fed rate hike all over again.

Indeed, the speculation has already begun that June is once again in play as per Bill Gross, who moments ago said that "June Likely to Be When Fed Makes One of Two Rate Hikes."

As of this moment, futures are near day lows, so Goldman's latest forecast that "Good news is good news again" was again wrong.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March. Employment gains  occurred in retail trade, construction, and health care, while job losses  occurred in manufacturing and mining.

Retail trade added 48,000 jobs in March. Employment gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+12,000), health and personal care stores (+10,000), building  material and garden supply stores (+10,000), and automobile dealers (+5,000).  Over the past 12 months, retail trade has added 378,000 jobs.

Construction employment rose by 37,000 in March. Job gains occurred among residential specialty trade contractors (+12,000) and in heavy and civilengineering construction (+11,000). Over the year, construction has added 301,000 jobs.

Employment in health care increased by 37,000 over the month, about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In March, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+27,000) and hospitals (+10,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 503,000.

Over the month, employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places (+25,000) and in financial activities (+15,000).

In March, employment in professional and business services changed little for the third month in a row. In 2015, the industry added an average of 52,000 jobs per month.

Employment in manufacturing declined by 29,000 in March. Most of the job losses occurred in durable goods industries (-24,000), including machinery (-7,000), primary metals (-3,000), and semiconductors and electronic components (-3,000).

Mining employment continued to decline in March (-12,000) with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in mining has decreased by 185,000.

Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, changed little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in March. The manufacturing workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.6 hours. Factory overtime was 3.3 hours for the fourth month in a row. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $25.43, following a 2-cent decline in February. Over the  year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.37. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +172,000 to +168,000, and the change for February was revised from +242,000 to +245,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 1,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month.

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Shocker's picture

Call it a Recovery, Recession… whatever
The job market is still weak

Layoff List:

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is a huge beat on expectations! Holy moly! This is not good news at all for the bears that continue to go broke by betting against America and the global recovery! I simply cannot believe that anyone can still not see that we are in a recovery, when we have had consistently spectacular jobs numbers year, after year, after year. How dense do you have to be to not see how promising these green shoots are? I'm telling you, you will never go broker buying the dips on the S&P 500 - it works every time. Fuck'n A BABY!

remain calm's picture

Raise the rates you corrupt lying purposely deceptive piece of a shit excuse for a human being

indygo55's picture

Anyone who thinks the FED doesnt have all the numbers up front a week or so in advance is just peddlin' fiction. Everything is made up to front run the prepared insiders for the next "market" move in any direction. They are in front of all moves. Look at Goldman. Who doesnt get this?


LawsofPhysics's picture

Take a step furher indy, the Fed makes the fucking numbers and POLICY whatever the fuck they want!!!!!

"Give me control of a nation's money supply and I care not who makes the laws..." and all that...

JRobby's picture

Clearly a long term manipulation of data that has made connecting data points impossible. The real statisticians abandoned this fuck boat a long time ago.

AGuy's picture

"Everything is Awesome"

Until Liquidity vanishes. Every day in the news I hear that Liquidity is become harder and harder. As soon as it's gone we'll have another Lehman moment with massive layoffs again. Unless the Fed acts soon, I don't see how another crisis can be avoided. Another rate hike would almost certain seal the deal


brada1013567's picture

Never! Cackle, cackle, cackle.




remain calm's picture

I hope you picked out your favorite light post because when the event happens you and the rest of your evil doers will have hell to pay. You still got time though......More QE, Negative interest rates. confiscation with Marshall law.......put you know the end will come

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea! WHAT 'crisis' for fucks sakes? See, markets never needed all those trillions in free money rescues after all!

Farqued Up's picture

Kudlow just said that middle America has not had a raise since 2000. Why even read this bullshit which is total fabricated fantasy? I hit the silk on Good Thursday and now maybe I can get a decent nights sleep when my brain flywheel slows down below 20,000 rpm.

He also said the Repubs are using Cruz as a battering ram to crush Trump to grease the skids for Weasel Ryan. He shot low, it's the Deep State, not just the Pussy Pachyderms, that are after Trump.

WI is being touted as representative of the average voter and it is basically a socialist mob.

ebworthen's picture

Green shoots and mustard seeds MDB! 

The middle class is back, college is affordable, and GM makes a great car!

Bill of Rights's picture

Relax you with your shitty blog, its a beat but the real news is at 10 ISM and construction...

bobsmith5's picture

No, it's not a beat, it's just another extension of an ongoing lie of biblical proportion

agNau's picture

Exactly why the 1/4 point was so easy to do.

Mr Pink's picture

So 215k restaurants fired one waitress that they hired last month and had to hire a replacement. Job creation in the land of smoke and mirrors

DeadFred's picture

Don't forget three hookers were hired as well. Agreed two of them were hired by the Cruz campaign and are ,at best, temp workers but they are used to temp work. Green Shoots!

flapdoodle's picture

Yellen is just following orders. The G20 decided that Hillary needs some help, so they will keep the economy afloat until she gets in.

This is all part of the a concerted effort - the big tell and the big decision is the weakening of the US Dollar...

As for the US economy, that died back in 2008 but has been on life support machines ever since. Every move by Yellen and the bankers isn't because of a twitch by the (dead) body, rather just fiddling with the knobs on the heart-lung machine to make the cheeks seem a bit more rosy...

minitrue's picture
minitrue (not verified) Apr 1, 2016 7:45 AM

Below last month so should give Yellen a good reason for lowering rates. Because everything is a good reason for monetary easing.

SheepDog-One's picture

Things are so great! 215K new bartenders and cocktail waitresses hired, and at higher wages to boot! Party on!

AbbeBrel's picture

To spill a bit of beer on the bartender hiring ZH meme - here is Neil Howe explaining that "Millenials gone Mild" (birthday from 1982 to 2002'ish) - get this: --- Don't go to bars. ----

They go for "having an experience" instead. So go long "Experience Emporiums" (dunno what that is, but I suspect it ain't Lost Wages, and Atlantic City is also on the ropes). Here is the vid:

Millennials Gone Mild: The Investing Implications

DeadFred's picture

Look up a list of the 'best' hipster bars in SF and you will get a feel for what an experience emporium is.

skbull44's picture

An 'above expectation' print that will surely be revised much lower in the months ahead.
Lies, damned lies, and Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Dazman's picture

How can the data even be accurate just 1 day after the end of the month? There must be a couple of days lag at the least

Turin Turambar's picture

Silly boy, it's timely and accurate because in today's world of high speed internet and wireless technology, the utmost care is utilized to collect this important information via landline phone and snail mail paper surveys. :-O

You don't really expect the morons in government to use real time Treasury information of payroll tax receipts to provide real time information, do you? After all, who would employ the psychic meteorologists if there was no longer a demand for their seasonal adjustments? LOL

CHoward's picture

Damn, how many bars do we have in the U.S.?!?

Mr Pink's picture

Here in Wisconsin there is 2 on every block

T-NUTZ's picture

Behold the Ag MONKEY HAMMER!

DeadFred's picture

Watch to see if and how it rebounds. The real test is in how the hammer (which they can do at any time they wish) affects market psychology. When the hammer falls and a new high follows quickly in its steps then the end has arrived.

lester1's picture

It's an election year. No way the Fed raises rates !

IronForge's picture

Raising Tariffs are the only way to Survive; and this is Why Mr. Trump and Sen. Sanders "should" win their respective Party Nominations.

There's nothing wrong with building factories in CHN - for the CHNese Market.  We need the Mfg Jobs for our Market HERE.

SallySnyd's picture

Here is an interesting look at how many American workers are making well less than a living wage:


While the number of Americans who have become employed since the end of the Great Recession has improved, more than one-third of U.S. workers are employed in very poorly paying industries.


dogfish's picture

It's April time to rehire landscapers.

SoDamnMad's picture


If you want more landscapers you have to open the borders.

1stepcloser's picture

The ministry of truth says there will never be another recession. 

enosenose's picture

welcome to the Walking Dead Mkt.

spanish inquisition's picture

She is covering for the lack of stock buy backs.

Aubiekong's picture

Lets all sing "We thank the dear leader for his wise leadership in this the times of great prosperity. We love dear father Odumba...."

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Future's so bright I gotta wear shades!  A manufactured economy for the masses controlled by bread and circus. Lovely that they get to choose who gets the bread and who gets the circus.

taopraxis's picture
taopraxis (not verified) Apr 1, 2016 7:56 AM

Just bought some gold after the unwarranted $15 drop...

taopraxis's picture
taopraxis (not verified) taopraxis Apr 1, 2016 8:04 AM

Doubled up on my gold trade at the test of the low...

GUS100CORRINA's picture

So exactly when does the lying stop ... indeed truth is dead in the streets.


As in the movie war games: "It's a fantasy"


McKittrick: [McKittrick approaches Falken's group on stairs] I don't know what you think you can do here, Stephen.

Stephen Falken: [suddenly noticing] John! Good to see you. I see the wife still picks your ties.

McKittrick: What is- What has this kid been telling you?

Stephen Falken: [looking at screens] How far's he gone?

McKittrick: Well the President about ready to order a counterstrike. That's what we're recommending he do.

Stephen Falken: It's a bluff, John, call it off.

McKittrick: No, it's not a bluff. It's real.

Stephen Falken: [raising his voice from stairs] Hello, General Beringer! Stephen Falken!

General Beringer: [standing] Mr. Falken you picked a hell of a day for a visit!

Stephen Falken: Uh, uh, General, what you see on these screens up here is a fantasy; a computer-enhanced hallucination. Those blips are not real missiles. They're phantoms.

McKittrick: [McKittrick approaches Beringer] Jack, there's nothing to indicate a simulation at all. Everything is working perfectly!

Stephen Falken: But does it make any sense?

General Beringer: Does what make any sense?

Stephen Falken: [points to the screens] That!

General Beringer: Look, I don't have time for a conversation right now.

Stephen Falken: [Falken speaks as he approaches] General, are you prepared to destroy the enemy?

General Beringer: You betcha!

Stephen Falken: Do you think they know that?

General Beringer: I believe we've made that clear enough.

Stephen Falken: [face to face] Then don't! Tell the President to ride out the attack.

Colonel Joe Conley: Sir, they need a decision.

Stephen Falken: General, do you really believe that the enemy would attack without provocation, using so many missiles, bombers, and subs so that we would have no choice but to totally annihilate them?

Female Airman First Class: [on loudspeaker] One minute and thirty seconds to impact.

Stephen Falken: General, you are listening to a machine! Do the world a favor and don't act like one.

Haka Matohi's picture
Haka Matohi (not verified) Apr 1, 2016 7:56 AM

Presented without comment:

backwaterdogs's picture

I can't remember, are we still in good news = bad news?  this seems bullish, wait I mean bearish, yeah I choose bullish

Dg4884's picture

Simple enough... they are buying time whilst packing their bags to get the hell out when the SHTF this year. 

Space Animatoltipap's picture

Yellen's data dependent confusion. That you of course get in a casino, specifically when using using fake money.