Atlanta Fed Stuns Everyone, Revises GDP Higher Despite Retail Sales, Inventory Miss

Tyler Durden's picture

Following today's triple whammy of economic misses, in which first retail sales both declined and missed expectations, and then both business inventories and sales declined and missed from downward revised numbers, AtlantaFed watchers were certain that the keeper of the GDP Nowcast would cut its GDP estimate from 0.1% to zero or even negative.

However, this did not happen. Perhaps due to another tap on the shoulder as a negative GDP print would be just too much to justify the relentless market rally, or as a result of the NY Fed's own competing service now trying to steal the limelight with its own 1.1% GDP forecast, moments ago the Atlanta Fed stunned everyone when it announced that instead of revising its concurrent GDP tracker lower, it actually pushed it up from 0.1% to 0.3%.

This is what it said:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3 percent on April 13, up from 0.1 percent on April 8. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent.


What makes this particularly curious is that even Goldman Sachs, which keeps a concurrent tally of GDP components and revises it after every major data point, revised its GDP estimate down from 0.9% to 0.8%: "Details of the retail sales report were slightly negative for our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP growth: we revised down by one tenth to +0.8% (qoq ar)."

Stocks, enthused by this curious interpretation of today's economic data, just took out intraday highs.

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Winston Churchill's picture

They stuck Yellen on the scales, not just a thumb.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Winston Churchill Apr 13, 2016 10:37 AM

Rate hike time!!!





mtl4's picture dammit, screw the numbers, we got this!

remain calm's picture

I promise I won't come in your mouth, you can trust me.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Maybe the officials at the Atlanta Fed are factoring in the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures following this weaker than expected data. Stimulus normally benefits GDP, regardless of other factors.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Yes, where is my billion dollar loan at zero percent interest!!!!!

Yes, let's bring on the stimulus for everyone!

not just bankers and financiers...

pods's picture

Must be the FED is now using algos to forecast. It saw bad news and voila, good news.

Tarzan's picture

Obama and Biden reminded Yellen .01% didn't cover the Margin for Error, so .03% it is!

StackShinyStuff's picture

The only thing the Atlanta Fed forecast is there for is to give the market someting to "beat".  That is why they low ball.  Oh missed consensus? Well it was higher than the Altanta Fed forecast so BTFD!!!!

tc06rtw's picture

 …  When you look at the  GDPNow website and see the photo of their Chief Economist, I believe,  all becomes clear.

Buzz Fuzzel's picture

It isn't what it is, it's what they say it is.  


bobsmith5's picture

How are you going to build a base of readers from posting comments and your websites url on Zero Hedge where everyone hates you and you get mostly down votes.  MDB you are seriously suffering from some form of psychosis or extreme mental disorder.  The logic of posting where you are very unpopular to promote a website is the epitome of insanity.

jakesdad's picture

I know you're just our resident troll but I will admit that as feds go atlanta at least has some shred of crediblity left (vs ny, dallas, etc) so it will interesting to see if this is legit or just the fed's "let's send colin powell to un - everybody trusts HIM!" moment...

bobsmith5's picture

How are you going to build a base of readers from posting comments and your websites url on Zero Hedge where everyone hates you and you get mostly down votes.  MDB you are seriously suffering from some form of psychosis or extreme mental disorder.  The logic of posting where you are very unpopular to promote a website is the epitome of insanity.

NoDebt's picture

Obama met with Yellen 2 days ago.  There's your answer.

remain calm's picture

You mean the big black man told the little white lady. "you better do this or else...." That is hard to swollow and racist.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The market mafia sent a couple of leg breakers down to Atlanta to have a little 'talk' with them.......


3X better than expected!! Long live the great recovery. //

Captain Willard's picture

News from the Federal Reserve is now indistinguishable from Onion parodies

moleson1965's picture

Indeed, it has reached the outright ridicule.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The difference between fiction and reality is fiction has to make sense-Tom Clancy......

Sky flyer's picture

I seriously can't take much more.

juan675309's picture

holy cow.........up IS down...........  1 + 1 = 3

Stox's picture

It is common core math

SubjectivObject's picture

It was pointed out to them that they forgot to include the stun factor in their original calculations.

In this context, the stun factor appears to be 3.

Aubiekong's picture

If you dont like the numbers make up new ones...

1hirtleman's picture

Revisions to prior periods pushed the estimate up.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

someone pissing down your back and calling it rain? Shit, in this case they're calling it a recovering economy. At least until Cankles goes in.

Secret Weapon's picture

These fuckers are cooking the books harder than the Enron boys. 

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Apr 13, 2016 10:40 AM

In other news, the Atlanta Fed just retained the services of Bernie Madoff to assist in GDP forecasting.


Cocaine and hooker stocks rocket on the announcement.

gimli's picture

Today Mathematics has outlawed negative numbers.

stant's picture

Yep rate hike coming, giving up on Europe , Gota save themselves

Budnacho's picture

Gee, I can't see any reasons people would stop trusting these guys judgment or answers...they're so consistent....


Bam_Man's picture

Everything is "Enron" now.

unplugged's picture

different day - different number pulled out of the hat

TheytookERjobs's picture

I'm short but i can't stop laughing..

El Hosel's picture

"Stunned" ... Yeah, the Fed is cooking the books and changing their story daily. The other stunning news, the sun rose in the east.

Winston Churchill's picture

Seasonally adjusted that would be the west.

stormsailor's picture

waters wet, sky is blue, pope is catholic, atl fed changed their number, and the bear still skats in the woods.........that is todays report from captain obvious

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

This is a turf war folks.  NY FED vs. ATL FED now.  They will try to 'out dumb each other' going forward on their models.

Sit back and enjoy the show!

khakuda's picture

Must. Push. S&P. Past. 2075.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Rate hike coming or dollar dies...

The Fed must defend the only thing it really controls, the FRN, it will defend it to the death...

Space Animatoltipap's picture

Confusion abound. That you have, just before a crash.

GoldenGoosed's picture

I hear the bs is suppose to get much more Enron than this before everyone is confident they have no confidence in commie cronyism dictatorial deciet economics!
Especially when they have nothing to do but spend all day telling us the bad number don't matter ever ever again no matter how much they miss the upside.
Yup I guess it is time to raise rates!

arbwhore's picture

Another 25bps on April 27th.

carbonmutant's picture

Any number will do...