"It's Getting Worse" - Economic Outlook Plummets In Gallup Poll, Rising Gas Prices Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture

According to the latest Weekly Economic Confidence poll released by Gallup, Americans' confidence in the US economy is getting worse. The poll asks people to rate the economy as of today, and whether or not the economy as a whole is getting better or worse.

It turns out that ordinary people are not as excited about the US economy as those who are cheerleading minimum wage job creation and market levels being close to all time highs, and certainly not as excited as that group of people called each month by either the Conference Board or UMich, the two far more closely tracked confidence indicators.

The Economic Confidence Index for the week ending April 10th came in at -14. Down from the prior week, and hitting a low not seen since the first week of November last year.

 

Digging a little deeper into the detail, Gallup reveals that people are viewing the economic outlook to be much worse than current conditions. While both components are getting worse, the economic outlook plummeted. The score of -22 reflects 37% of US adults saying the economy is "getting better", while 59% say it's "getting worse."

This is how Gallup concludes:

Americans' views of the national economy have been somewhat turbulent over the last several weeks, with confidence improving one week only to fall the following week. From a broad perspective, economic confidence so far this year has neither moved into a sustained period of positivity nor entered into a steady decline. Americans are confronted with presidential candidates using the economy as one of their talking points, mixed signals from national economic reports, volatility in the stock market and an apparent end of sub-$2 gas prices nationally -- all of which may be affecting their economic assessments.

 

Americans' cautiousness in their assessments of the economy may not be far off from those of economic leaders, however. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen has been slow to raise interest rates, with some economists arguing Yellen has been overly cautious and has underestimated the economy's actual strength. Yellen's critics say the slow pace of raising rates will put the Fed at a disadvantage, with the possibility of increased inflation as the economy reaches its employment targets.

The disconnect in sentiment between everyday people and financial pundits must just be the result of a communications issue. And of course, we look forward to the UMich confidence report to beat expectations when it is released in just a few minutes.

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Kolchak's picture

Yes because it's obviously that extra hundred bucks a year, that's breaking everyones checkbook.

clooney_art's picture

It's all a circus with clowns running the show.

RadioFlyer's picture
RadioFlyer (not verified) clooney_art Apr 15, 2016 8:51 AM

Just as long as we clowns get our own bathroom, I think it'll all turn out ok.

mtl4's picture

One minute higher gas prices are needed to kick start the economy, next minute economy is tanking because it went up........geez, just admit to cooking the numbers like South America and be done with it.

ebworthen's picture

And beyond that - there is so much FED funny money sloshing about the casino that it doesn't matter how much Gas or Gold people buy or don't buy - there are no markets!

No supply and demand - just Algo HFT's slish-sloshing, rotating, and going short/long sectors and commodities. 

Manthong's picture

I guess no return on savings, the lousy job market, oppressive Obamacare costs, rising taxes, fees, regulations, high student loan debt, insane car loan debt and soaring housing/utility costs have nothing to do with it.

Never One Roach's picture

They need to lock up those climate change deniers and Confederate flag holders.

 

Then the economy would be great!

 

Really.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Many economists believe that we need a catalyst akin to, if not equal to, a World War III, in order to truly revive our economy and usher in a new age of prosperity. This may appear controversial to ordinary people, but in academia this is a common belief. We need to seriously consider what a war could do for our economy, much like World War II ended the great depression.

WHY OUR ECONOMY NEEDS A WORLD WAR III
ebworthen's picture

"All wars are banker wars."  Smedley Butler, USMC.

mtl4's picture

MDB, don't they need to admit to a Depression first for us to need war to get us back out?!

 

Reminds me of the Lego movie theme song.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Well, we could wait for that, or we could act now to avert it.

mtl4's picture

Do you mean being proactive like Minority Report?

bobsmith5's picture

This is why you are evil MDB.  This is why your thinking and your philosophy is fundamentally flawed.  This is what the monsters you admire have created.

They also have programmed your mind.  They own you MDB.  YOU are the perfect slave they dreamed they could create, and they have done just that when they created your view of reality MDB.

They want you to be convinced that the only way out of this mess is war. Then out of that chaos and destruction they can create their "New World Order".

You are giving them exactly what they want in everything you say on Zero Hedge and on that lame website where you post in detail your insanity.

The only good you do here MDB is make lots of people angry, so they start thinking. I guess this is what the purpose of evil is on this planet. 

How does it feel to be the evil people need to help them see what is right MDB?

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Sorry, the best we can offer is 'Gender Fluid' bathrooms.

Dubaibanker's picture

Fuck yeah! it's imploding, not worsening!

Let me know if I missed any! ;)

All of this in the last 2 weeks except Credit Suisse which is 24 March 2016!

All these job cuts will happen immediately in the days ahead because all bank results coming out currently are very poor.

Goldman

Goldman's Blankfein Demands Deepest Cost Cuts in Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/goldman-s-blankfein-sa...

RBS

RBS to close 32 NatWest branches and axe further 600 jobs

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/14/rbs-close-32-natwest-bra...

BNP

BNP Plans Up to 675 Job Cuts at Investment-Banking Division

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/bnp-paribas-plans-675-...

Scotiabank

Scotiabank Launches New Round of Job Cuts as Consumers Move Online (TSE:BNS)

http://sonoranweeklyreview.com/scotiabank-launches-new-round-of-job-cuts...

Macquarie 

Macquarie lays off 15 percent of U.S. investment banking group: sources

http://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Macquarie+lays+off+15+percent+of+U....

Nomura

Nomura is cutting up to 600 jobs and closing parts of its European stocks business

http://www.businessinsider.com/reports-of-nomura-closing-its-european-st...

SocGen

Societe Generale to cut 128 jobs in its GBIS division - union

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/societe-generale-cut-128-jobs-184345227.ht...

Santander

Santander to Close One in 10 Spanish Branches to Cut Costs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/santander-to-close-bra...

Citibank

Citigroup Said to Plan 70 Job Cuts Across London Trading Units

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-12/citigroup-said-to-plan...

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse to axe 2,000 more investment banking jobs

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-credit-suisse-gp-costs-idUSKCN0WP0OQ

Natwest

NatWest to close 32 branches and cut 600 jobs

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/14/natwest-to-close-32-branc...

Bank of America, UBS etc

BAML cut heads of EMEA equities. Citi, UBS said to prepare cuts too

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/242324/baml-cut-heads-of-emea-eq...

UBS

UBS Group May Cut 6% Investment Bank Jobs in Europe

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/210924/ubs-group-may-cut-6-investment-ba...

Blackrock

BlackRock Plans to Cut About 400 Jobs in Coming Weeks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/blackrock-is-said-to-p...

JP Morgan

JPMorgan cuts 5 percent of Asia wealth management jobs: source

http://ktwb.com/news/articles/2016/apr/13/jpmorgan-cuts-5-percent-of-asi...

Barclays

Barclays headcount drops 8000 in 4 months -

Barclays share price: Bank sheds 8,000 jobs in four months

http://invezz.com/news/equities/22997-Barclays-share-price-Bank-sheds-80...

Half a Million Bank Jobs Have Vanished Since 2008 Crisis: Chart

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-31/half-a-million-bank-jo...

venturen's picture

you have it backwards...if Goldman et al fired EVERY SINGLE EMPLOYEE that would be a positive sign...that people were working on useful things...not colluding to steal ever dollar of savings, pension, insurance, investment money!

quadraspleen's picture

 

 

It's the stupid, economy.

pods's picture

Gas goes up 20 cents and that causes this?

I guess it could be true, I mean, this is Amerika.  

Methinks it is more of a realization that no matter what people do, they face a long, slow slide into 3rd world status.

Main street has been getting crushed for decades, and now the credit is tapped out.  

Even the Fed Gov's liabilities are absurd.  What, $200 TRILLION now?  

We're fucked. Thanks to the DMM (Debt Money Monopolists, thanks to who has been pimping that here lately, I think it works well and is more palatable than "The Jews", as Francis found out again. Ugh.)

pods

BandGap's picture

I think this is the shit you are not seeing on TV, this is the reality of what is going on. I have seen and spoken to people who do not want their financial dire straights be known - not to worry the kids, not to be embarassed, not to be seen taking unemployment, etc. So they hide what they are thinking. And our fucking media is perpetuating this by blowing sunshine up the ass constantly. Who wants to bitch about their condition when they see that things are going great in this country?

And since when is the stock market a reflection of anything on main street? It's all an illusion until you dig a little and ask a few questions.

Things are bad out here.

Baa baa's picture

I see the same. The level of discontent among the white, middle class is the greatest and they are the most stoic about their situation. Humility comes hard for the arrogant but if we have any roots of rebellion, they lay within the hearts of the aforementioned. They have the money (So far), the means (So far) and it appears are finding the will to no longer be exploited. Awareness is growing despite the best efforts of the PTB/MSM, at least I hope that is what we are seeing.

Kefeer's picture

I hope so as well; I am only optimistic to the extent that a leopard or Kenyan can change its spots of the skin color.  We have cut ourselves off from the Root that supplied nourishment to the nation.  Now we are literally withering away as a society.

adr's picture

There just isn't any money left if you are working. I'm making double what I was when I bought my first house nine years ago but at the end of the month I have less left over now than I did a decade ago.

Food has doubled, property taxes have doubled, electricity and water have tripled. Health insurance has increased by a factor of five for me.

I got a $5000 raise this past year but after taxes it only amounts to an extra $260 a month. WHOO HOOOO!!!!! My insurance premium went form $900 a month to $1600 for a family plan, so although the extra $260 is nice it still puts me way in the hole year over year.

The toys my son likes were $7.99 three years ago and a cost engineered piece of shit they try to pass off as the same is $17.99 now. The kicker is they moved production from China to Vietnam to save labor cost, SO WHERE DID THE EXTRA $10 COME FROM!!!!

So little is actually selling that retailers are pushing massive margin increases to keep their bullshit comps.

I got new pricing for next years production. I have a retail price that is fixed, the account won't buy anything at a retail price above $59 and won't pay any more than $24 wholesale. My FOB is $22.35 giving me a gross profit of $1.65 and a net profit that will be negative. I get to make $1.56 gross profit and the retailer gets to make $36. SOMETHING IS JUST A BIT FUCKED UP THERE!!!!!

Unless you derive your money from the stock market, there is no point in being in business. There is no money to be made producing anything.

BandGap's picture

Wait till your son goes to college. You think toys got expensive, just wait.

Temporalist's picture
LA unions call for exemption from $15 minimum wage they fought for

"Union leaders argue the amendment would give businesses and unions the freedom to negotiate better agreements, which might include lower wages but could make up the difference in other benefits such as healthcare. They argue that such exemptions might make businesses more open to unionization."

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/12/los-angeles-15-dollar-min...

 

BandGap's picture

Just like OfuckingbamaCare. I will admit I benefit from my wife being in the school system but.....they exept unions because they are (perceived) paid sheep.

Illinois is waking up to what the unions have done to the state. It's shaping up to be the state vs. the city of Chicago.

 

Grandad Grumps's picture

If instead of borrowing money to create chaos around the world and increase control of the central banking empire, the US borrowed the same amount of money and invested it in infrastructure and the implementation of existing technology we could have some really cool and safer stuff (like reliable bridges) stuff.

The problem is the inherent nature of the corrupt bosses to be self-serving. They want the slaves weak, disorganized and dependent on inefficient systems doled out to the slaves from systems under boss control.

And yet, I have heartache with the idea that ridding the world of the few corrupt and self-serving powerful at the top would solve anything. I believe at the center of it is a moral question and to use evil to fight evil means that we have lost our soul and evil wins.

Jesus Christ did not come here to make our life easy, but to put us through fire and give us a path to the truth and freedom. And my firm belief is that is why the bosses are trying to distance people from Jesus Christ.

pods's picture

In a perfect world we could use the debt to fix stuff here. But a loaf of bread would be 10 bucks.

The only way Amerika functions is if we export our debt, hence we don't take Arab oil, we only make them accept dollars for it.

pods

Grandad Grumps's picture

I agree and disagree at the same time.

The American banking system (as a subset of the global banking system) exports our money so that the rest of the world is dependent on us. If the only place they can redeem value for the money is the US, there is HUGE dependency created.

Yes, of course Foo Foo Fiat is traded for tangible goods... but it not only gives us cheap food and goods, but increases the size of the interdependent system as a whole. It is an unfortunate fact that the western world exports death and slavery for tangible goods ... but the system also gives people a purpose beyond simple sufficiency.

I sometimes question the value of that purpose and whether it serves us as well as spirituality (with less stuff) might.

Quebecguy's picture

Negative interest rates= negative confidence. 

blown income's picture

Pods who knew that another  $4 a fill up would be the last straw

 

/

pods's picture

Yeah, it's been really tough since Starbucks has gone out of business. But, nobody can afford $5 for a coffee anymore.

:)
pods 

Phillyguy's picture

Janet Yellen has been slow to raise interest rates because every time the FED even hints at monetary tightening (ie, raising interest rates) the stock market drops. The inflation in asset prices since the 2008 financial crash is largely due to FED’s QE program (aka welfare for the wealthy) which resulted in the transfer of > $ 4 trillion of taxpayer money to large banks and corporations. Much of these funds have been used for stock buybacks which has created bubble in stocks and trendy real estate in NYC, SF, Boston, etc. Yellen is now stuck. If the FED gets more “hawkish” these markets will collapse.

bada boom's picture

Are there any fed presidents left to make comments?

Kefeer's picture

They can print one up.

adr's picture

Anyone with a brain can see that they are paying more at the pump for gas right now than they were last year with oil down $10.

Last year I was paying $1.95 for gas in April and this year I am paying $2.19. Oil last year was $51 and this year it is $39.

Not to mention that $1.95 gas at $50 oil is also insanely high.

The people know we are getting fucked over every day. They might not know by who exactly, but they know what is happening and they don't like it.

Omen IV's picture

Thee has been a hike in margins for intermediate distributors across the board - food has gone up drmatically yet the dollar is strong and much of the foodstuffs non processed are imported -

so there is a policy of allowing this consolidation of distrbution to increase margins promoted by the Fed - I assume they want to squeeze the middle class with higher overheads so they have no choices but accept lower wages

 

Theonewhoknows's picture
Theonewhoknows (not verified) Apr 15, 2016 9:09 AM

IT's all th same - why would we think that media (polling agency has the same level of bs in it) will speak the truth? Why would they? We are smarter than that - let's not be victims but rather solve problems. Politics, economics and media - they all in the gutter. We have to ask ourselves a question what can we do about it HERE AND NOW. We all know that the ship is going down but the music keeps playing but what we should be thinking about is how not to be swept by the wave of bad consequences developed world indebtedness, bubbles in many corners of market and war on cash. Playing a bear against central banks may be very hard on the other hand, prolonging this binge QE-driven bubbles equals meeting a wall sooner or later. http://independenttrader.org/is-time-to-short-already-here.htmlSo we all know that the ship is going down but the music keeps playing but what we should be thinking about is how not to be swept by the wave of bad consequences developed world indebtedness, bubbles in many corners of market and war on cash. Playing a bear against central banks may be very hard on the other hand, prolonging this binge QE-driven bubbles equals meeting a wall sooner or later. http://independenttrader.org/is-time-to-short-already-here.html

poor fella's picture

The Fed is hosed. If you take two curves to minimize defaults of subprime automobile borrowers (with low gas prices) vs. defaults of energy producers (with higher oil prices), you would probably be right around $41/barrel. But none the less, defaults WILL continue. It's the same with supporting multi-nationals with a low dollar vs. small business and consumers with a strong dollar. Everywhere you look you see the 'maths' the Fed is locked on to.  We are watching a slide-show of America's collapse. We all know this. We are IN a have BEEN in recessionary collapse. *stops preaching to choir*

Bill of Rights's picture

Rising gas prices LMFAO ya that whole $20 a month really put a dent in my budget...fuck a cup of coffee is $4 bucks...$20 dollars give me a break

venturen's picture

wasn't yesterday the study showing the cost of eating out is up 20%?

pods's picture

Why would you pay to eat out?

She should be happy to, oh, wait, nevermind.

pods

(the consummate 12 year old)

general ambivalent's picture

Haven't really noticed this as much as other things, after work I sometimes go to a tavern and it's only 8 bucks or so for a burger. Definitely see it in fast food though, the tavern gives you nearly three times the amount of food and I think fast food actually costs more now. Maybe it's an overall cost and I'm just not upscale enough to notice the prices.

Average price of a house in Canada is over 500,000 though. Maybe I should go pick one up this afternoon, gas price may cut into my deposit too much though.

venturen's picture

wonder if housing prices up 20% might put a dent in the pocketbook?

the grateful unemployed's picture

you mean since rents are rising faster than housing prices?

the grateful unemployed's picture

the economy was better when gas was $4 a gallon. we need to tear up some of the old text books. i do think the fed was backed off the rate hikes for that reason, Yellen is Chinese is one fundamental way, she wants to micromanage credit to inflate businesses (in this case energy) which already have too much overcapacity.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-new-middle-kingdom-of-concrete...

interesting Stockman mentions that already countries are imposing tariffs to counter Chinas dumping of steel,

And it is also evident that it will not be in a position to dump its massive surplus on the rest of the world. Already trade barriers against last year’s 110 million tons of exports are being thrown up in Europe, North America, Japan and nearly everywhere else.

wait i know who brought up the Tariff issue, although Stockman personally loathes the guy. one republican to another, its going to be a long year