No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement

Tyler Durden's picture

The most anticlimiatic culmination to the most farcical "agreement" of 2016, one which could have been seen a mile away by any carbon-based trader not housed in a collocated, supercooled facility in Secaucus, has taken place and here is the "shocking" result:

  • OPEC, NON-OPEC MINISTERS FINISH OIL TALKS IN DOHA, NO AGREEMENT - RTRS
  • OIL PRODUCERS END DOHA TALKS: OMAN MINISTER - BBG
  • DOHA OIL TALKS FINISH WITHOUT FREEZE DEAL: NIGERIAN MINISTER - BBG
  • OMAN MINISTER SAYS OIL PRODUCERS NEED MORE TIME TO REACH DEAL

Bloomberg has some additional details, even if the endgame had been clear for weeks in advance:

Negotiations between 16 oil producers in Doha ended without any agreement on limiting supplies, a diplomatic failure that threatens to renew the rout in prices.

 

The summit in the Qatari capital, which dragged on for more than ten hours beyond its initially scheduled conclusion, finished with no final accord, Nigeria’s Petroleum Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu told reporters. Discussions stumbled over whether the agreement should extend to other producers such as Iran, which wasn’t present, according to a person familiar with the matter. The inability to reach consensus will lead to a “severe” drop in prices, Citigroup Inc. predicted before the meeting.

 

“The Doha meeting was an opportunity for OPEC to polish its tarnished image,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London, said on April 15. “After the failure of OPEC’s December meeting, the market was uneasy about its cohesion and Doha was a chance for the group to reassert its relevance and build a circle of trust.”

As reported earlier, and as has been reported for weeks, the failure to reach a deal was as a result of Saudi intervention, who have been the only dominant force among oil producing nations, ever since the Saudis killed OPEC as a cartel in November 2014. Here is the FT regurgitating what is already known:

Delegates said Saudi Arabia had in effect torn up an earlier draft of the deal as it decided it could not be party to an agreement that would give Iran any leeway. Tehran had refused to join the freeze as it rebuilds its oil exports after years of sanctions.

Iraq, to be sure, was quite displeased: "We are very, very disappointed," said Iraq's representative. "This will effect the price and our earnings. We wanted a deal."

But the Saudis - who are about to drink everyone's milkshake again - did not, despite so much optimism for a deal ahead of the meeting...

 

Of course, one has to keep the dream alive, and sure enough the strawman for more headlines is set:

  • OIL-PRODUCING NATIONS WILL MEET AGAIN, PROBABLY JUNE: NIGERIA - BBG

Will it once again work to fool the idiot algos, with recurring headlines of another "imminent certain deal", which will ram the shorts for another 2 months of stop hunts? Probably. The only question is whether Venezuela's regime will survive for another two months.

What happens next? Again here is Citi's Ed Morse with the obvious next steps:

If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday.

And now we begin counting down the hours until oil opens for trading, pardon, selling unless the BOJ decides it will soak up every last drop on offer.

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Mr.Sono's picture

What a shocker ..............not

maskone909's picture

Hahahaahahahahah now back to your regularly scheduled programming of energy bankruptcies

johngaltfla's picture

Markets are going to be fun to watch tonight! Man, there are going to be some pissed off camels in Saudi as their owners won't give them any after this failure to perform.

Mr. Bones's picture

I would be completely gobsmacked if I hadn't had a whole month to prepare my shocked face.

Anyone want to lay odds that there will be something received as bullish by the end of the week?

spastic_colon's picture

yes they didnt need it for april so now the controlled volatility can be rigged for the next 60 days until june meeting.....that is if the snp is down.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Sovereign oil companies will keep on overproducing at any price. What a bunch of pointless drama. Prediction, oil will be less than $35 per barrel at week's end.

Uncle Sugar's picture

June meeting. Very bullish news for the algos 

SiFiUK's picture

if (headline.IndexOf("vienna") !=-1) { EnterLong("OPECULATER"); }

zeropain's picture

can we continue the crash to 1700?  then we can do another dead cat bounce for the june meeting and reload on tvix then.  trading is easy.

quadraspleen's picture

 

 

Anyone want to lay odds that there will be something received as bullish by the end of the week?

Yeah, down to c. 35 by Friday I reckon, then back up. Some oil-related disaster will befall someone, a fake scarcity will be suggested and back up to c. 42-44 by May 1 (I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about of course - I'm guessing based on the fairy-tale stuff I've seen in the last two weeks)

johngaltfla's picture

Nah. Watch the Ukraine. The spring thaw is over, fields are hardening. Perfect for armor. 4/23 through May would be the prime times for action, usually on a Saturday.

geno-econ's picture

Before the primaries and elections it would be a disaster for Hillary and Neocons and a plus for Sanders and Trump so I doubt any action forthcoming. On other hand, Obama has consistently allowed advisors to make bad decisions without taking responsibility or changing course.  So has Bush big time.

runningman18's picture

There were some people posting comments here just yesterday that really called this wrong and they were so damn certain.  They seem to be missing today...I can't figure out....golly, where did they go?  Don't up and leave without saying goodbye... 

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Perhaps these omnipotent men would prefer the Magic of a Goat's orifice?

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Apparently Dental care is not included in the Saudi Dole...

brewing's picture

Some of that Japanese foam oughta clean em up...

old naughty's picture

but unlikely to keep all of them under cover.

 

But seriouslly what's that sh't anyway?

Consuelo's picture

Perhaps he'd like to be 'modified'...

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

You took the words out of my mouth. And my mouth doesn't have weird-ass teeth pointing at all kinds of random angles.

Bill of Rights's picture

Good catch, breath probally make a camel blush,

Stainless Steel Rat's picture

C'mon... past $100 million, height, teeth, bad breath, etc. stop mattering. ;-)

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Well Played... However,  witha greasy mug like that, the Saudi dole must cover "Roofies",  as a top 3 dating must have...

bamawatson's picture

i miss billie sol estees

ghostzapper's picture

BOJ better get those bids underneath crude or else another earthquake might miraculously head their way.  

Nephilim's picture

ZUBROKA ZUBROKA

 

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Forgive, the Assumption but you are referring to ZUBROWKA Vodka I hope, as I have just cracked the cap for lunch...Anywho,  back to rolling pennies to pay for MLP losses :)

wisefool's picture

You mean they can sell stuff they have (at this time) to people who want to buy it (at this time) without having to check into a higher authority who can see the future?

Steve Leisman is not going to like this situation at all.

DogeCoin's picture

SELL SELL SELL EVERYTHING MEOW! I GOT THESE OIL STOCKS WHICH COULD EXCEL AT SELLING!

skinwalker's picture

At some price, I've heard $150 a barrel, it becomes economical to liquefy coal into fuels. Given the god awful amounts of coal lying about, it seems like coal reserves should be included when calculating how much oil is left. 

Peacefulwarrior's picture

A Well Done visual to fit the experience...

NDXTrader's picture

There's our answer: Saudi Arabia wants to further pressure the frackers. One caution: those emergency meetings mean a Sunday night surprise might be in store - back to ZIRP soon

XRAYD's picture

*DJ: Qatar Oil Minister Says Market Heading into Right Direction.

 

Right, UP .... 

PontifexMaximus's picture

Big work night for ukrainian and russian hookers in doha

Mr.Sono's picture

What.....are you saying that no one wants American or European hookers?

Kaiser Sousa's picture

Dow 20,000

Gold & Silver free.

robertocarlos's picture

I could use a solid door-stop. It has to be a gold brick though, the silver bars are too skinny.

RadioFlyer's picture

Money for nothing and your chicks for free...

101 years and counting's picture

the official transcript.....something, something something, oil.  something, something, something, hookers.  something, something, something.....everyone ready to go back to their own desert now?

oncemore's picture

The censored 28 pages have huge impact on oil.

The Real Tony's picture

With falling earnings and oil set to get poleaxed expect the plunge protection team to be very active all week with the DOW opening around 9:45am Monday to balance all the sell orders. DOW to open down 1,000 and finish the day up about 150 points.

Squid Viscous's picture

dow up 100, I can pull numbers out of my ass too!

"lower oil is great for the US consumer, and most of the S&P"

Jimbo Cramer

jubber's picture

it's trading on IG arsewipe

jubber's picture

Dow now down 75 in London

jubber's picture

Both FTSE & Dax - 42